South Florida vs. Memphis
- Point-Spread: USF -5
- O/U Total: 64
- Implied Score: USF 34.5 – Mem 29.5
- Weather: 64 degrees / 41% rain / 11 mph winds
South Florida:
Top Play(s) – QB Byrum Brown ($9,000) Brown captains the No. 7 scoring offense in the country that is steamrolling AAC opponents lately, averaging 57 PPG during this four-game win streak. In that stretch, Brown is averaging 38 FPPG, with multiple 100-yard rushing performances on the ground and is our highest projected player on the slate. Normally, we’d be cautious with Brown facing a Memphis defense that was previously allowing 14 FPPG to opposing quarterbacks, but the Tigers just gave up three touchdown passes to a backup QB in last week’s shocking loss to UAB.
Fade – RBs. Still a three-man backfield with Nykahi Davenport, Sam Franklin and Alvon Isaac, that also splits carries with Byrum Brown who is the team’s leading rusher by over 200 yards. Sure, one of the three could pop a long run, but this Memphis defense is stout against the run, ranked first in the conference in yards allowed on the ground.
Bargain Bin – WR Keshaun Singleton ($4,400) Singleton’s impact in the passing game has fallen off since the first couple weeks of the season, and has taken a backseat to Jeremiah Koger, but does still lead the team in routes run and second in targets (33). If Chas Nimrod returns, we’re less interested in Singleton as it will become a three-man rotation at boundary receiver.
Pivot Play – WR Jeremiah Koger ($4,700) The freshman has been the best USF receiver the last three weeks with 259 receiving yards and four touchdowns. If Chas Nimrod continues to miss games due to injury, that boosts Koger’s stock even further.
Best of the Rest – TE Jonathan Echols ($3,200) Memphis gives up around 12-13 FPPG this season to opposing tight ends and Echols has caught a touchdown passes in three of the four games during this current USF win streak. WR Christian Neptune ($3,100) is cheap for a player that is third on the team in targets (31), but splits time in the slot with WR Mudia Reuben ($3,300) which negates both players.
Injury Notes – WR Chas Nimrod (questionable), RB Cartevious Norton (out)
Memphis:
Top Play(s) – WR Cortez Braham ($5,800) Team leader in targets (37), receptions ($29) and yards, with five of the team’s nine receiving touchdowns this season. No other Memphis pass-catcher has more than one receiving TD. USF allows around 49 FPPG to opposing WR rooms because opponents have been in a trailing position so much this season. Braham is in play, regardless of who the Memphis QB is on Saturday.
Bargain Bin – WR Jamari Hawkins ($3,500) or WR Marcello Bussey ($3,200) Hawkins and Bussey are cheap and on the field, which is the best compliment we can give them here because neither has caught a touchdown pass yet this season. Hawkins does have a 100-yard performance against Tulsa in Week 6 and has been incredibly efficient with an 82% catch rate and zero drops on 27 targets.
Pivot Play – RB Greg Desrosiers ($7,600) or RB Sutton Smith ($6,500) Not the type of matchup where you can stack the Memphis backfield, as USF ranks 11th in stuff rate and 27th in rush D success rate. Desrosiers is the better play of the two as the team’s lead back the last several weeks, and he’s getting increasingly involved in the passing game with 10 catches on 10 targets in the last two weeks. Memphis may lean on the run a bit more if starting a freshman QB on Saturday.
Best of the Rest – QBs. We’ll see here, because as of Tuesday writing this, Brendon Lewis is considered day-to-day after leaving last week’s contest with an injury. Freshman AJ Hill, the highest rated QB recruit in program history, came on in relief of Lewis and threw for 175 yards and a touchdown. USF is last in the AAC in yards allowed per game through the air, but that includes a ton of garbage time yards with the game already in hand in favor of the Bulls. I’d probably look for other QB options on the slate here.
Injury Notes – QB Brendon Lewis (questionable)
Ole Miss vs. Oklahoma
- Point-Spread: OU -4.5
- O/U Total: 52.5
- Implied Score: OU 28.5 – Miss 24
- Weather: 63 degrees / 48% rain / 11 mph winds
Ole Miss:
Top Play(s) – RB Kewan Lacy ($6,900) I don’t love anyone from this game from a fantasy standpoint, but Lacy gets top billing for his consistency, scoring 18 or more fantasy points in every game this season. The issue is the Oklahoma defense, which may have their own Conner Stallions according to Lane Kiffin, as the Sooners are 4th in stuff rate and 2nd nationally in rush D success rate this season. Lacy is a lineup filler at best, and not a priority.
Bargain Bin – Pass-Catchers. They’re all attainable at salary but how interested should we be in one from a team where no player has more than 20% target share on the season. Five different Ole Miss WR/TEs have between 286-400 receiving yards. WR De’Zhaun Stribling ($4,600) is trending upwards the most of anyone, with 60 or more receiving yards in three of the last four games.
Best of the Rest – QB Trinidad Chambliss ($8,800) You’ll see the same argument for John Mateer below and with Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza. If you’re spending up for a QB on the slate, it’s easily Byrum Brown. Opposing quarterbacks are averaging just 6.9 FPPG against the Sooners this season. It’s unlikely to happen, but the fact that Austin Simmons is now healthy too is giving me pause on playing Chambliss for the rest of the year. One bad half, and will Lane Kiffin be tempted at making a QB switch?
Injury Notes – n/a
Oklahoma:
Top Play(s) – WR Isaiah Sategna ($5,600) Sategna continues to see the vast majority of targets for the Sooners in the slot, now with double-digit targets in three of his last four games with four touchdowns in that span. Slot receivers have done work against this Ole Miss secondary the last two games with Georgia’s Zachariah Branch and Washington State’s Tony Freeman combining for 17 receptions.
Fade – QB John Mateer ($8,900) The hand is said to be improving according to Mateer, but his play on the field has suffered, scoring just 16 combined fantasy points over the last two weeks. Gunner Stockton had a career performance against the Rebels last week, but prior to that, Ole Miss was only giving up 16 FPPG to quarterbacks. There’ better options at cheaper salaries.
Bargain Bin – WR Javonnie Gibson ($3,500) Season-highs for Gibson last week with five receptions (only 24 yards) on six targets, while playing 86% of the team’s snaps. Keontez Lewis is questionable for Saturday, and his return would put a damper on Gibson’s viability.
Pivot Play – Tory Blaylock ($5,600) Blaylock had his best outing of the season against South Carolina, rushing for 101 yards and a touchdown on 19 attempts. He’ll still be the starter if and when Jovantae Barnes returns, but it would help if Barnes were out again on Saturday. The advanced stats hate the Ole Miss run D, ranked 122nd in stuff rate, 126th in success rate and 87th in explosive run plays allowed.
Best of the Rest – WR Deion Burks ($4,500) Burks still leads the team in routes run, and is out there for almost every offensive snap, but he’s given way to Sategna as the WR1. Outside receivers just don’t hold as much value as slot receivers in Ben Arbuckle’s system. 40 or fewer receiving yards in five of his last six games with an aDOT of just 8.2 yards. Oklahoma is not pushing the ball downfield, particularly with Mateer’s hand injury, and Burks doesn’t get the target volume.
Injury Notes – WR Keontez Lewis (questionable), RB Jovantae Barnes (questionable)
Kansas State vs. Kansas
- Point-Spread: KU -2.5
- O/U Total: 56.5
- Implied Score: KU 29.5 – KSU 27
- Weather: 58 degrees / 50% rain / 7 mph winds
Kansas State:
Top Play(s) – QB Avery Johnson ($8,100) Running more has been key to Johnson’s fantasy surge, scoring at least 22 fantasy points in each of the last three games. He’ll be counted on Saturday in a game where KSU is likely to be without Dylan Edwards according to head coach Chris Klieman. The last dual-threat quarterback that faced Kansas this season went for over 440 total yards of offense in Cincinnati’s Brendan Sorsby.
Bargain Bin – TE Garrett Oakley ($4,700) Oakley is on the same trajectory as Johnson, scoring all four of his receiving touchdowns this season over the last three games. The junior tight end ranks third on the team in all receiving categories. WR Jerand Bradley ($3,400) is playable at this price after catching a touchdown last time out vs. TCU. K-State does not rotate at wide receiver when all three starters are healthy.
Pivot Play – RB Joe Jackson ($7,000) Whiff on my part in suggesting to fade Joe Jackson against TCU two weeks ago, as the sophomore back ran for 110 yards on 27 attempts. No other running back on the roster carried it more than twice. Kansas gives up the most rushing yards per game in the B12 conference (188.3 YPG).
Best of the Rest – WR Jayce Brown ($6,500) or WR Jaron Tibbs ($5,100) The duo of Brown and Tibbs combines for 47% of the team’s target share and 50% of the receiving production. Two receivers have gone for over 100+ yards this season against the Jayhawks – Cincinnati’s Cyrus Allen and Missouri’s Kevin Coleman. Both had double-digit receptions as well. The other commonality between the two – they’re both slot receivers. Jayce Brown is Kansas State’s starting slot receiver, fwiw.
Injury Notes – RB Dylan Edwards (doubtful)
Kansas:
Top Play(s) – QB Jalon Daniels ($7,600) High game total and a tight spread is a perfect game environment for Daniels whose 22-point projection at this salary is squarely in play. Josh Hoover and Sawyer Robertson combined to throw for over 700 passing yards against this K-State secondary, and Kansas is as healthy as they’ve been all season coming out of the bye week.
Bargain Bin – TE Boden Groen ($3,500) I don’t know that Groen will have as many opportunities as he did against Texas Tech when he caught 13 passes on 14 targets, as the Red Raiders were clearly content to just give away the underneath stuff to limit explosives. That said, Groen has been very involved over the last month taking over the starting job from the injured DeShawn Hanika, with three touchdowns in the last four games. WR Cam Pickett ($3,600) was as healthy in Week 7 against Texas Tech as he’d been since the start of September according to reports, and it showed with 82 yards on six catches.
Pivot Play – WR Emmanuel Henderson Jr. ($6,000) Team leader in all receiving categories, averaging 17.5 yards per catch with a 13.5 aDOT. Why is that important? Kansas State is 117th in the country in explosive pass plays allowed, having given up 16 plays of 25+ yards or more through the air which is tied for fourth most in the Big 12.
Best of the Rest – RB Daniel Hishaw Jr. ($5,500) or RB Leshon Williams ($4,600) Sounds like Hishaw is the healthier of the two running backs headed into Saturday, but expecting both to suit up coming out of the bye. Kansas State is the better of the two run defenses, allowing just 3.9 YPC to opponents, and limiting both Baylor and TCU to under 100 rushing yards in the last two games. That, combined with a fluid backfield situation where we don’t know exactly who gets most of the carries for the Jayhawks has us not wanting much exposure in the KU running backs.
Injury Notes – n/a
Syracuse vs. Georgia Tech
- Point-Spread: GT -18
- O/U Total: 54
- Implied Score: GT 36 – Syr 18
- Weather: 64 degrees / 1% rain / 8 mph winds
Syracuse:
Top Play(s) – WR Johntay Cook ($5,900) Cook has been Syracuse’s WR1 for the last month and seems to be the favorite target of quarterback Rickie Collins with six or more receptions in each of the last four games.
Fade – QB Rickie Collins ($6,400) You are not starting Collins on a main slate, full stop. HC Fran Brown gave Collins a vote of confidence this week, saying he’s sticking with the former LSU transfer as QB1, but we also saw third-stringer Luke Carney make an appearance in the loss to Pittsburgh.
Bargain Bin – WR Darrell Gill Jr. ($3,600) Gill benefitted from Justus Ross-Simmons being limited to just two snaps played against Pittsburgh, finishing with a team-high 11 targets, resulting in four receptions and a touchdown. We know game script will be in favor of the Syracuse pass-catchers with the Orange being double-digit underdogs. We also know that Gill is capable of a 30-point fantasy performance, although that was with a competent quarterback under center at the time.
Pivot Play – RB Yasin Willis ($5,700) Willis did nothing last week against Pittsburgh on the ground, which wasn’t unexpected given the Panthers have the best run defense in the ACC. Now, he gets a chance against the worst run defense in the conference with GT allowing 155 yards per game on the ground. Those numbers are a tad deceiving as the Yellow Jackets are only 55th in rush D success rate and did limit Duke to just 66 yards on the ground last week. We’d rather fade Willis and the Syracuse offense, but maybe there’s hope against a lesser defense this week.
Best of the Rest – TE Dan Villari ($3,700) Villari was targeted five times against Pittsburgh, resulting in three receptions. He was on the field 97% of the time. WR Emanuel Ross ($3,000) caught a touchdown in the absence of JRS, but split snaps with WR Jaylan Hornsby ($3,000). Would not play any Syracuse WR outside of Cook and Gill.
Injury Notes – WR Justus Ross-Simmons (questionable)
Georgia Tech:
Top Play(s) – QB Haynes King ($8,600) It wasn’t looking good for King lineups through three quarters last week against Duke but he came through in the end with 29 fantasy points scored, including 120 yards and a touchdown on the ground. Syracuse doesn’t do much of anything well defensively, though have limited opposing quarterbacks to just 20.9 FPPG this season. That is more to do with teams playing with double-digit leads the last three weeks against the Orange, so this could be the week to fade King against the field because ownership will undoubtedly be high again.
Fade – RB Jamal Haynes ($5,900) This was previously a split backfield between Haynes and his quarterback Haynes King. Now it’s a three-way split with RB Malachi Hosley ($5,000) who has outperformed Haynes in the last two games, scoring a touchdown against both Virginia Tech and Duke. Syracuse allows a combined 35 FPPG to opposing backfields this season, so it makes some sense to have some exposure to either Haynes or Hosley, but the three-way split limits any upside.
Best of the Rest – WRs. Georgia Tech is an 18-point favorite and a team that is 124th in pass play percentage. The Yellow Jackets won’t have to put the ball in the air on Saturday. If Malik Rutherford were to miss the contest, WR Bailey Stockton ($3,200) would start in his place in the slot with WR Eric Rivers ($4,600) and WR Isiah Canion ($3,900) starting on the outside.
Injury Notes – WR Malik Rutherford (questionable)
Virginia vs. North Carolina
- Point-Spread: UVA -10.5
- O/U Total: 51.5
- Implied Score: UVA 31 – UNC 20.5
- Weather: 60 degrees / 0% rain / 4 mph winds
Virginia:
Top Play(s) – RB J’Mari Taylor ($6,700) We’ll probably see low ownership for Taylor after his 8-point performance last week in Virginia’s uninspiring win against Washington State – though that’s two straight games in which the Cougars played ranked opponents down to the wire. Despite just 47 yards on the ground, Taylor still dominated the touches in the UVA backfield and could see increased volume with backup Xavier Brown already declared out. North Carolina is giving up 30 FPPG to opposing backfields.
Bargain Bin – WR Jahmal Edrine ($3,700) Virginia doesn’t rotate much at receiver, particularly on the boundary, as both Edrine and WR Trell Harris ($4,300) play over 70% of the team’s offensive snaps. Edrine, the former Purdue transfer, is coming off his first 100-yard performance of the season and has 12 combined catches over the last three weeks.
Pivot Play – WR Cam Ross ($4,400) Ross is the team leader in targets (43) and receptions (28) that will likely see low ownership as a result of his “performance” against Washington State with zero receiving yards but only played a handful of snaps due to injury. Ross is expected back this week and plays 87% of his snaps in the slot. Why is that important? We just saw California’s Jacob de Jesus catch 13 passes last week vs. UNC, who also lines up inside.
Best of the Rest – QB Chandler Morris (7,900) 18-point projection at this salary doesn’t make much sense to consider when you have cheaper QBs like Jalon Daniels and Brendan Sorsby, or could spend a few hundred more for Avery Johnson who projects better as well. North Carolina is 114th in pass D success rate and allowing around 21 FPPG to quarterbacks this season.
Injury Notes – RB Xavier Brown (out)
North Carolina:
Top Play(s) – RB Benjamin Hall ($4,700) The Michigan transfer has taken over the RB1 role, finding the end-zone in each of the last two games while rushing for a season-high 68 yards on 14 carries last Friday against California. UVA is adequate against the run, allowing just 21 FPPG to opposing backfields and ranked 9th in the ACC in yards allowed per game, but this is a smaller (ish) price to pay for a starting running back.
Fade – RB Demon June ($4,500) The freshman may have a bright future, but he looks to have been relegated to third-string duties after a pair of duds the last two games. June started against California, but saw the third-fewest carries (4) among UNC backs.
Bargain Bin – WR Kobe Paysour ($3,100) Paysour saw a significant spike in playing time and production last week with 6-101-0 on seven targets and was on the field 79% of the game, all of which were season-highs. This seems to be related to the decline of WR Shanard Clower ($3,000) who was effectively benched following his fumble against Cal.
Pivot Play – WR Jordan Shipp ($3,800) Shipp had just 19 receiving yards but led the team with eight targets last weekend. UVA is giving up around 43 FPPG to opposing WRs this season, including 108 yards and a touchdown on seven catches to Washington State’s Josh Meredith last week. In fact, Virginia has allowed a 100-yard receiver in each of the last four games. Playing Shipp or Paysour here makes a lot of sense.
Injury Notes – n/a
UCLA vs. Indiana
- Point-Spread: IU -24.5
- O/U Total: 54.5
- Implied Score: IU 39.5 – UCLA 15
- Weather: 53 degrees / 28% rain / 6 mph winds
UCLA:
UCLA is one of the best stories in college football at the moment but that will end on Saturday. QB Nico Iamaleava ($6,000) is playing better under a new play-caller but hasn’t put up worthwhile fantasy numbers outside of the Penn State performance. Indiana allows just 12 FPPG to opposing quarterbacks. UCLA deploys a running back by committee against defense that is No. 2 in the country in stuff rate and No. 6 in rush D success rate. No thanks. WR Rico Flores ($3,200) continues to play over 90% of the team’s offensive snaps with a cheap cost again this week but has failed to put up more than eight fantasy points in any of his four starts. We don’t have a single UCLA skill position player projected to score double-digit fantasy points this week.
Indiana:
Top Play(s) – WR Elijah Sarratt ($7,500) It was a bit choppy at the start of the season against lower-tiered opponents, but Sarratt has been incredibly productive and consistent in Big Ten matchups, scoring 20+ fantasy points in each of the last four games. UCLA being improved in the last three games should only help Sarratt be on the field for most / all of the contest.
Bargain Bin – WR EJ Williams ($3,900) Williams has a season-best 59 yards and a touchdown on five receptions last week against Michigan State. The best part about Indiana receivers this season is there is quite literally no guesswork involved. The top three of Sarratt, Williams and WR Omar Cooper Jr. ($6,900) simply never leave the field. Any of the three are options on any give Saturday.
Pivot Play – RB Roman Hemby ($5,800) The last time I said to fade Hemby, he rumbled in for two touchdowns against Oregon. Indiana is a committee backfield between Hemby and RB Kaelon Black ($4,900) so there’s limited upside and major risk that it’s the running back you don’t choose that finds the end-zone. The UCLA run defense has also been vastly improved in the last two weeks, holding opponents to just 4.2 YPC. Either Hemby or Black will find the end-zone on Saturday, but it’s a guessing game as to which will.
Best of the Rest – QB Fernando Mendoza ($9,200) Mendoza has a solid projection at 25.3 fantasy points this week and will never sink your lineups because of how good the Indiana offense is. But you’re spending up for just one of the $9k QBs on this slate, and Byrum Brown has the far better projection.
Injury Notes – n/a
Auburn vs. Arkansas
- Point-Spread: Aub -1.5
- O/U Total: 57.5
- Implied Score: Aub 29.5 – Ark 28
- Weather: 61 degrees / 77% rain / 12 mph winds
Auburn:
Top Play(s) – RB Jeremiah Cobb ($5,900) Cobb should get the lion’s share of the carries again this week with Damari Alston no longer on the team. If Cobb averaged nearly six yards a carry against a top five run defense in the SEC, what do we think he’s capable of against one of the worst run defenses in the conference? Any time Arkansas is on a DFS slate from here on out, we’re stacking players on both teams, particularly the one facing the Razorbacks.
Fade – QB Jackson Arnold ($7,800) Shame that Arnold has been that terrible, because a dual threat quarterback facing this Arkansas defense is a dream fantasy matchup as we saw a week ago with Marcel Reed. Unfortunately, Arnold is unplayable as he’s splitting practice reps with Stanford transfer Ashton Daniels. Arnold is getting benched sooner or later at this rate.
Bargain Bin – WR Perry Thompson ($3,500) Thompson has been more involved in the offense the last two weeks with six targets against both Georgia and Missouri. Feels like what Hugh Freeze did late last year with some of his 5-stars, increase their playing time to persuade them in sticking around the program for another year and not hit the portal.
Best of the Rest – WR Cam Coleman ($6,200) or WR Eric Singleton Jr. ($5,400) The WR duo combines for 60% of the team’s receiving production and four of Auburn’s five receiving touchdowns. Probably wouldn’t stack the two in a lineup together, because we could see Ashton Daniels as the primary QB on Saturday, but we’re heavily interested in anyone facing this Arkansas defense. The Razorbacks are 122nd in pass D success rate and 89th in explosive pass plays allowed.
Injury Notes – RB Durell Robinson (probable)
Arkansas:
Top Play(s) – QB Taylen Green ($8,400) The biggest question mark for Green coming into the year was could he perform against SEC defenses, where he averaged just 18 FPPG in 2024. The answer is a resounding yes, averaging 37 fantasy points in three conference games. Auburn provides a tough challenge, only allowing 15 FPPG to opposing quarterbacks this season, but Green still projects well this week as the fourth-highest QB on the slate. We’re probably looking at shootouts the rest of the year for Arkansas with Bobby Petrino at the helm.
Fade – RB Braylen Russell ($4,300) Tight spread against a really good run defense means were not at all interested in a backup running back. Russell is likely portal bound at the end of the year.
Bargain Bin – WR CJ Brown ($3,200) or WR Raylen Sharpe ($4,000) We mostly want exposure to just the Big 3 for Arkansas, but the secondary options at receiver for the Razorbacks have been productive in recent weeks. Brown caught a touchdown on eight targets vs. A&M last week, while Sharpe caught all seven of his targets the week prior vs. Tennessee. We see a small rotation in the slot where Sharpe plays, but not at boundary receiver. Brown has barely left the field in the last two games, playing over 95% of the offensive snaps.
Pivot Play – RB Mike Washington ($6,100) Auburn may have given up on the season, but the run defense has not, as the Tigers limited both Georgia and Missouri to under three yards a carry in the last two games. That said, those teams combined for five rushing touchdowns. Arkansas has the rushing attack to give any opposing defenses troubles, ranking 7th in success rate, and 11th in line yards.
Best of the Rest – WR O’Mega Blake ($6,800) Blake is playable every week with 30% of the team’s target share, coming off a 118-yard performance against A&M. Two SEC receivers have surpassed 100+ yards against Auburn this season – KC Concepcion and Isaiah Sategna.
Injury Notes – n/a
Alabama vs. South Carolina
- Point-Spread: Ala -11.5
- O/U Total: 47.5
- Implied Score: Ala 29.5 – SC 18
- Weather: 70 degrees / 1% rain / 5 mph winds
Alabama:
Top Play(s) – WR Lotzeir Brooks ($3,100) Brooks being the top option for me this week shows how little we’re interested in the Alabama side in this matchup where many of the options are a bit too pricey. The Tide run game is bad, and the WR situation is a mixed bag where Alabama seemingly has a new leading receiver each week. Brooks is cheap, has accounted for at least 30 yards in each of the last six games, and could see extended playing time if this game turns into a blowout. Slot receivers have also found the most success against South Carolina this season, with Isaiah Sategna and Kyle Parker both posting 70+ receiving yards and a touchdown in the last two games vs. the Gamecocks.
Fade – RB Jam Miller ($7,200) The Alabama run game is struggling, ranking 111th in the country at 3.7 YPC, coming off a game against Tennessee where the Tide ran for just 47 yards on 22 attempts. Comments this week from HC Kalen DeBoer suggested we’re going to see more Daniel Hill this week, and the rotation has already included Kevin Riley at times too.
Bargain Bin – RB Daniel Hill ($4,600) Was hoping that Hill would be priced around where Lotzeir Brooks is, since he’s only played in four games this season. But I guess rushing for 34 yards and a touchdown against Tennessee boosts your salary significantly. As we alluded to above, quotes from the coaches suggest we’re going to see more of Hill on Saturday and moving forward to boost a stagnant rushing attack.
Best of the Rest – QB Ty Simpson ($8,200) Simpson is playing winning football on the field during this six-game win streak, completing over 70% of his throws with 18 touchdowns and just one interception for the season. Winning football on the field doesn’t always equate to fantasy production, though. There’s several QB options at lower salaries this week with higher projections. South Carolina is adequate against the pass too, limiting opposing QBs to just 13 FPPG this season.
Injury Notes – n/a
South Carolina:
This statistic encapsulates the entire fantasy season for the South Carolina offense. Eastern Michigan quarterback Noah Kim has almost double the amount of fantasy points scored in 2025 as LaNorris Sellers. DOUBLE. It’s obvious at this point that we’re going to see a mutual parting of ways after this season is with Shane Beamer taking the Virginia Tech job to follow in his dad’s footsteps.
Missouri vs. Vanderbilt
- Point-Spread: Vandy -2.5
- O/U Total: 52.5
- Implied Score: Vandy 27.5 – Mizzou 25
- Weather: 70 degrees / 19% rain / 9 mph winds
Missouri:
Top Play(s) – RB Ahmad Hardy ($7,300) Hardy is now second in the country in rushing touchdowns (11) behind only Washington’s Jonah Coleman after finding the end zone twice last week in the win over Auburn. Seems like SEC defenses are adjusting to Hardy, though, as he’s been held to under 60 yards in each of the last two weeks. Vanderbilt is not Auburn or Alabama when it comes to defending the run, ranked 76th in success rate. They’re not a pushover by any means, but Vandy isn’t a dominant group either.
Fade – RB Jamal Roberts ($4,600) Notice a pattern that Roberts’ volume is on the steady decline since entering conference play with just eight rushing attempts combined vs. Auburn and Alabama. In all reality, Roberts probably deserves more touches with his 7.3 YPC average, but Mizzou seems content on riding their workhorse in Hardy.
Bargain Bin – TE Brett Norfleet ($3,600) Norfleet was a bust last week but there’s a shot for a rebound performance as Vandy has struggled to defend tight ends this season, allowing over 13 fantasy points per game to the position. LSU’s Trey’Dez Green was awesome again vs. Vanderbilt last week with 74 yards and a touchdown on five catches.
Pivot Play – QB Beau Pribula ($6,900) Pairing a Byrum Brown with a cheap option at QB like Brendan Sorsby or potentially Beau Pribula is the play this week. Outside of the blowout against UMass, Pribula has been a steady performer, scoring 17 or more fantasy points in six of seven starters, and we saw more usage on the ground against Auburn last week with 16 rushing attempts. Vandy isn’t dominant against the pass either, allowing 21 FPPG to quarterbacks this season.
Best of the Rest – WRs. Remember last year when Luther Burden dominated the target share? Yea, this year ain’t that. We have four Missouri wideouts with projections between 7-9 fantasy points. Low floor, low upside.
Injury Notes – n/a
Vanderbilt:
Top Play(s) – QB Diego Pavia ($8,500) I want to say I’d never doubt Diego Pavia, and the projection is fine this week, but this is a tough matchup for the Vanderbilt QB. Missouri allows just 14 FPPG to opposing quarterbacks and are top 10 nationally in both pass and rush D success rate. The flip side of that argument is that those numbers are skewed after facing UMass, Louisiana, and Central Arkansas. LaNorris Sellers, Ty Simpson and Jalon Daniels all scored over 20 fantasy points in their matchups with the Tigers.
Fade – TE Eli Stowers ($4,700) I wish Stowers were more productive lately, because this is a strong matchup against a Missouri team that gives up around 11 FPPG to the tight end position. I didn’t catch the matchup with LSU last week, but Pro Football Focus indicates that it was actually TE Cole Spence ($3,000) that got the start last week against the Tigers and converted on all five of his targets for 56 yards and a score.
Pivot Play – WR Junior Sherrill ($4,900) or WR Tre Richardson ($4,300) Never stacked Vanderbilt receivers in the same lineup, but either Sherrill or Richardson are potential options each week. At least one WR has scored double-digit fantasy points against Missouri in three of the last four games, all of which were SEC receivers. Two of them – Cam Coleman and Vandrevius Jacobs – went for 100+ yards against the Tigers.
Best of the Rest – RB Sedrick Alexander ($5,100) As we stated above, the numbers for the Missouri run defense look good, particularly in limiting fantasy points to opposing running backs. But who have the Tigers faced? Kansas is a committee. South Carolina doesn’t have a run game. Alabama’s run game is ranked in the 100s nationally, and Jam Miller ran for 85 yards in his matchup with the Tigers. And then we saw a backup Auburn running back go for 100+ against Missouri last Saturday.
Injury Notes – n/a
BYU vs. Iowa State
- Point-Spread: ISU -2.5
- O/U Total: 49.5
- Implied Score: ISU 26 – BYU 23.5
- Weather: 59 degrees / 10% rain / 10 mph winds
BYU:
Top Play(s) – QB Bear Bachmeier ($6,300) You could make the argument there is no reason to spend more than $7.5k at the quarterback position for this slate. Insert Bachmeier and Brendan Sorsby and don’t think twice about it. Or spend up to Byrum Brown and go cheap at the superflex with Bachmeier also makes a ton of sense. The freshman provides such a high floor with his rushing abilities, scoring 20 or more fantasy points in all but one game this season. Iowa State struggles with running quarterbacks, allowing 57 yards on the ground to Kaidon Salter, 64 yards to Brendan Sorsby and 83 yards to Arkansas State’s Jaylen Raynor.
Bargain Bin – TE Carsen Ryan ($3,500) or WR Cody Hagen ($3,300) BYU rarely rotates at the skill positions. You’ll see one running back, one tight end and three starting receivers. And that’s about it. Hagen and Ryan have only scored double-digit fantasy points a combined four times this season, but they rarely leave the field on offense.
Pivot Play – RB LJ Martin ($7,800) Martin has now surpassed 100 yards rushing in five of seven games this season, and his volume is ramping up in conference play with 20+ carries in each of the last three games. You could potentially stack Martin and Bachmeier together, given they combine for 12 of the team’s 19 rushing touchdowns, but probably not advised. Iowa State only gives up around 16 FPPG to opposing backfields, so Bachmeier is the preference here, not Martin.
Best of the Rest – WR Parker Kingston ($5,200) or WR Chase Roberts ($5,100) Kingston and Roberts combine for 60% of the team’s receiving production this season. No other BYU wideout has more than 100 receiving yards on the season. Kingston has been the better of the two in the last three weeks or so, but its bigger-bodied receivers that tend to give the Iowa State secondary troubles. That favors Roberts.
Injury Notes – n/a
Iowa State:
Fade – RB Carson Hansen ($6,500) Hansen will make his return to the field following Iowa State’s bye week where he missed the contest against Colorado due to a concussion. We’re normally not interested in Hansen as it is at this cost, but does he even retain his starting gig after watching RB Abu Sama ($6,000) run for 177 yards against Colorado in Week 7? Most likely scenario is this backfield goes back to a split where we’ll fade both backs, but Sama is the preference of the two after his performance two weeks ago.
Bargain Bin – WR Brett Eskildsen ($3,600) or WR Chase Sowell ($3,800) Why is BYU the underdog here? Let down spot on the road? The Cougars are giving up around 36 fantasy points per game to opposing WR groups so either Eskildsen or Sowell make some sense here as most teams have been in a trailing position against BYU.
Best of the Rest – Iowa State is one of the least-friendly teams in the country for college fantasy this season. You’re not playing Rocco Becht against a BYU defense that is giving up just 15.5 FPPG to opposing QBs. Backfield should be a 50-50 split with Carson Hansen returning. WRs have been mostly a wasteland outside of one or two decent outings from Sowell or Eskildsen. And the BYU defense is allowing just 1.8 FPPG to tight ends, so we’re out on Gabe Burkle and Benjamin Brahmer too.
Injury Notes – n/a
Baylor vs. Cincinnati
- Point-Spread: Cin -4.5
- O/U Total: 67.5
- Implied Score: Cin 35 – Bay 31.5
- Weather: 58 degrees / 27% rain / 6 mph winds
Baylor:
Top Play(s) – QB Sawyer Robertson ($8,700) Robertson is in that awkward salary range to where he’ll probably see lower ownership as a result, and probably best used in game stacks with Brendan Sorsby on the other side. Matchup is great, as Cincinnati is giving up around 26 FPPG to opposing quarterbacks, who are scoring 40% more fantasy points than their seasonal average when facing the Bearcats. The floor is just so high here, having scored 20 or more fantasy points in all but one game this season, which was a blowout of Samford when Robertson was not needed.
Fade – RB Bryson Washington ($7,300) Washington was upgraded to probable on Wednesday after being described by HC Dave Aranda as day-to-day with an undisclosed injury, something that has been bothering the RB1 for weeks now seemingly. It is tough to play Washington when we’re seeing him either leaving games due to injury or the coaching staff giving him a bit of load management with freshmen like Michael Turner and Caden Knighten also impressing.
Pivot Play – TE Michael Trigg ($6,100) Tight ends have had their way with this Cincy back seven in 2025. And it’s not like there’s been a Mackey Award winner type on their schedule either. Just go down the list. UCF’s Dylan Wade had 55 yards on five catches. Kansas’ Boden Groen caught five passes for 84 yards and a score. Bowling Green’s Jyrin Johnson had seven receptions for 80 yards and a TD. Trigg is the No. 1 fantasy tight end in the country.
Best of the Rest – WRs. We know the drill by now with Baylor receivers – any one of the top four wideouts can pop off in a given week. Looking at previous Cincinnati matchups, speed on the outside looks to give this secondary the most fits. Kansas’ Emmanuel Henderson went for 200+ yards on just five catches. Iowa State’s Brett Eskildsen had 100+ yards, and Nebraska’s Nyziah Hunter also posted 65 yards and a score vs. the Bearcats. All boundary receivers. That would favor WR Josh Cameron ($5,500) and WR Ashtyn Hawkins ($4,800), both of whom were targeted 11 times each last week.
Injury Notes – Watch for more Bryson Washington news on Saturday morning. RB Michael Turner ($4,800) enters the equation if we see Washington out or limited. WR Kobe Prentice ($3,900) is always in play if he remains sub $4k, as he’s scored a touchdown in five of seven games played. And now because I’m mentioning him last, it’ll be WR Kole Wilson ($4,200) with the breakout performance. The way it goes with Baylor wideouts.
Cincinnati:
Top Play(s) – QB Brendan Sorsby ($7,400) Tough to argue against Sorsby not being the best play on the slate when you consider projection and price. Baylor can’t defend the run or the pass, which doesn’t bode well when facing one of the best dual threat fantasy quarterbacks in the country. The Bears are allowing over 26 FPPG to quarterbacks this season.
Bargain Bin – Boundary WRs. Outside receivers tend to have their way with the Baylor secondary. Romello Brinson – 126 yards / two touchdowns. Jordyn Tyson – 7 receptions and a touchdown. Jaron Tibbs – 80 yards and a touchdown. And even this past week TCU’s Jordan Dwyer came back from the dead with 111 yards on seven catches against this Baylor secondary. WR Caleb Goodie ($3,700) is squarely in play. The second starting spot outside is a bit murkier. WR Jeff Caldwell ($3,800) continues to start, but WR Noah Jennings ($3,300) has played more snaps than Caldwell in every game but the opener. All three are potential options when looking to fill out your roster.
Pivot Play – TE Joe Royer ($3,500) Royer has not been the Top 5 fantasy tight end he was expected to be coming into the year, but more so due to the improvements at receivers. The senior tight end is starting to come on a bit, though, with 146 receiving yards over the last two games, and now facing a Baylor defense that is giving up 12.6 FPPG to tight ends this season.
Best of the Rest – RB Evan Pryor ($6,000) or RB Tawee Walker ($5,000) Most will be on Sorsby and the passing game, so counteracting that by being overweight on the RBs may help take down a GPP. The Bears do a good job at limiting explosives in the run game but are 97th in success rate defensively and 108th in yards allowed on the ground. TCU has the worst rushing offense in the B12 and rolled up nearly 200 yards and three scores on the ground vs. the Bears last week. It’s a committee between the two, that also shares carries with Sorsby, so we wouldn’t go bananas on exposure, but sprinkle them both into a lineup or two makes sense.
Injury Notes – n/a
Texas vs. Mississippi State
- Point-Spread: Tex -7.5
- O/U Total: 44.5
- Implied Score: Tex 26 – MSU 18.5
- Weather: 72 degrees / 21% rain / 11 mph winds
Texas:
Truly cannot believe how disinterested we should be in the Texas offense on a weekly basis for fantasy purposes. There’s just nothing to see here. There’s no chance we play QB Arch Manning ($7,500) when there’s a better option at $100 less in Brendan Sorsby. Mississippi State is giving up just 17 FPPG to quarterbacks this season. RB CJ Baxter ($5,200) being upgraded to probable means we’re out on RB Tre Wisner ($6,700). The Longhorns are 73rd in line yards and 78th in rush success rate – well below standards. And Texas hasn’t had a receiver post more than 60 yards in any of the last two games. WR Emmett Mosley ($3,600) being back in the lineup really muddies this situation to where four wideouts are getting relatively equal playing time. Mosley, WR DeAndre Moore Jr. ($3,700) and WR Parker Livingstone ($3,400) are cheap enough to play in order to backfill your lineups but are far from priority plays.
Injury Notes – RB CJ Baxter (probable)
Mississippi State:
Top Play(s) – RB Davon Booth ($5,600) This is contingent on if Fluff Bothwell plays or not. If Bothwell is in, we’re fading this backfield. Otherwise, Booth could be in line for another 20+ touches as he had last week against Florida, rushing for 105 yards and two scores. For as bad as the Texas offense has been, they’ve been good against the run, ranked 25th in stuff rate, 26th in rush D success rate and 3rd at limiting explosive runs. Booth is purely a volume play only IF Bothwell is out.
Fade – QB Blake Shapen ($6,100) Texas is allowing just 9.5 FPPG to quarterbacks this season and Shapen feels like he could be on the verge of getting benched for freshman Kamario Taylor.
Bargain Bin – WR Brenen Thompson ($3,700) We got revenge game narrative with Thompson beginning his career with the Longhorns, coming off a strong performance against Florida with 155 yards on 12 targets. We didn’t see WR Anthony Evans ($5,300) on the injury report this week, but he did leave the field late against Florida last week and entered the medical tent. Would assume he’s fine, but Evans potentially being limited would increase Thompson’s usage this week.
Best of the Rest – TE Seydou Traore ($3,100) Best thing we can say about Traore is that he’s on the field, playing 97% of snaps last week against the Gators. Third on the team in routes run, targets (20) and receptions (13), while second in touchdowns (3). Low upside, low floor play.
Injury Notes – RB Fluff Bothwell (questionable)
Mike’s DK Core Four:
- QB Brendan Sorsby, Cincinnati
- RB Jeremiah Cobb, Auburn
- QB Byrum Brown, South Florida
- WR Brenen Thompson, Mississippi State
Mike’s FD Core Four:
- RB Jeremiah Cobb, Auburn
- QB Brendan Sorsby, Cincinnati
- A Memphis Running Back
- QB John Mateer, Oklahoma
