Arkansas vs. Auburn
Point-Spread: Ark -3.5
O/U Total: 62.5
Implied Score: Ark 33 – Aub 29.5
Weather: 70 degrees / 0% rain / 12 mph winds
Arkansas:
Top Play(s) – QB KJ Jefferson ($6,300) Jefferson was sensational against BYU the last time we saw him, throwing for 367 yards and five touchdowns. Though as you read in the Friday DFS writeup, succeeding against the BYU defense in 2022 is not all that impressive a feat. Jefferson is going to pop in optimizers this week because of his salary and should be healthier coming off the bye week after dealing with a concussion earlier in the year. Does that mean we see his typical 15-17 attempt workload on the ground?
Fade – WR Warren Thompson ($4,400) Probably an obvious answer to all, but Thompson is now the 5th or 6th option in the Arkansas passing game as he’s lost his starting spot to Ketron Jackson ($3,700). He’s out-snapped Thompson in each of the last four games.
Bargain Bin – n/a. Suppose it would be Ketron Jackson who we mentioned above. 14 of his 20 targets have come in the last three games.
Pivot Play – RB Raheim Sanders ($6,900) Probably the strongest pivot of the slate considering most will be on Jefferson this week and won’t look to pair both in the same lineup. Auburn is far worse at defending the run, ranking 105th in rush play success rate and allow the 14th most FPPG (20.5) to opposing RB1s in the country.
Best of the Rest – WR Matt Landers ($4,800) Career day for Landers against BYU with 99 yards and three scores on 10 targets – easily his season-high. As we stated above, Auburn’s strength is in its secondary, allowing just 12.0 FPPG to opposing WR1s this season. WR Jadon Haselwood ($5,800) leads the team in receptions (31) and targets (41) but has scored double-digit fantasy points just four times this year. He is what he is at this point in his career.
Injury Notes – n/a
Auburn:
Top Play(s) – QB Robby Ashford ($5,200) Say hello to the punt play of the week in DFS. Running quarterback at $5.2k on a team that is projected to score four touchdowns will always pop in projections/optimizers. I think my only concern here is the wheels falling off for Auburn as a team with a head coach on the verge of being fired and multiple players entering the portal this week. Ashford can’t throw worth a damn, completing just 47.9% of his passes for the year, but we’re investing in his running ability. And QBs have fared well this season against the Razorbacks, averaging 27.5 FPPG.
Fade – Any and all Auburn WRs. See Robby Ashford’s passing numbers.
Bargain Bin – RB Jarquez Hunter ($4,200) Biggest question I need to uncover between now (Thursday) and Saturday morning is how the Auburn offense looks against Arkansas. Meaning…are we getting 38 pass attempts from Robby Ashford as he did vs. LSU and Georgia. Or can Auburn have enough success on the ground like they did against Ole Miss to where, even in a negative game script, the Tigers will still run the football 38 times as a team. For the season, the Razorbacks are 114th defensively in rush play success rate, so you’d think Auburn can go for 200+ on the ground as they did against Ole Miss. If that’s the case, do we see double-digit carries again from Hunter? Or did I just type a whole paragraph on a backup for nothing?
Pivot Play – RB Tank Bigsby ($5,400) Same argument here as we had for Rocket Sanders above. Everyone is going to be on the quarterbacks in this matchup. Don’t ignore Bigsby here facing a terrible Arkansas rush defense that is allowing 22.2 FPPG to opposing RB1s on the season – the sixth worst mark in the country.
Best of the Rest – n/a
Injury Notes – n/a
Oklahoma vs. Iowa State
Point-Spread: OU -1.5
O/U Total: 56.5
Implied Score: OU 29 – ISU 27.5
Weather: 51 degrees / 0% rain / 5 mph winds
Oklahoma:
Top Play(s) – WR Marvin Mims ($7,500) Oklahoma could score 30+ on Saturday and I don’t view any Sooner player as a necessity in our lineups. Give me Mims as the top option, coming off a 15-target game against the Jayhawks two weeks ago. Mims’ 52 targets on the year give him a 26% team target share. If I’m spending up at a position this week, it would be RB first and WR second. That’s why Mims>Dillon Gabriel for me.
Fade – WR Theo Wease ($6,200) We do not care that Wease has scored a touchdown in three of the last four games. Wease only makes an appearance when the team goes to its 4-wide sets and gets out-snapped weekly by Jalil Farooq. Absurd pricing. Distant fourth in targets (23) and fifth in routes run this season.
Bargain Bin – TE Brayden Willis ($4,000) Willis is coming off his best game of the season with 5-102-1 vs. Kansas, and now leads the team with five touchdowns. Second in targets (29). Dare I say Iowa State’s defense has struggled against opposing tight ends? Just 7.9 FPPG, but three different tight ends have scored double-digit fantasy points against the Cyclones.
Pivot Play – RB Eric Gray ($7,100) I don’t think Eric Gray is overvalued at $7.1k, but in this matchup, he’s an easy pass for me. Iowa State is No. 1 in the conference in rush defense, 15th nationally, is 19th in rush play success rate and giving up just 11.9 FPPG to opposing RB1s.
Best of the Rest – QB Dillon Gabriel ($8,800) A 22.3-point projection this week at Gabriel’s salary is close to complete fade territory. While Iowa State is 72nd in pass play success rate defensively, they’re also 10th in explosiveness so the Cyclones are excellent at limiting the big play. Again, we don’t need to have any Oklahoma players in our lineups this week.
Injury Notes – n/a
Iowa State:
Top Play(s) – WR Xavier Hutchinson ($7,900) The nation’s leader in targets in 2022 (100), averaging an absurd 14.2 targets per game. Double digits every single week, and now has topped 100 receiving yards in each of the last three games. Not to jinx anything, but you’re literally guaranteed 15 fantasy points as an absolute floor in a matchup where Iowa State will have to throw the football. There is no downside with Hutchinson, aside from the extremely bloated ownership percentages.
Fade – RB Jirehl Brock ($5,400) I would not even bother with trying to decipher the Iowa State backfield at this point. HC Matt Campbell said this week the group is the healthiest they’ve been at any point during the regular season following the bye, but we might be looking at a full-fledged RBBC right now. Strange to say for a Matt Campbell-led team. Iowa State’s offensive line is atrocious, ranking 106th in line yards and 113th in rush play success rate so even if there was “one guy,” the amount of running room would be severely limited.
Bargain Bin – WR Dimitri Stanley ($3,200) The former Colorado transfer looks to be more comfortable in his new surroundings, now averaging 5.8 targets per game over the last five.
Pivot Play – WR Jaylin Noel ($5,000) What’s the result of a team that consistently struggles to run the football consistently? Throw the ball more. Iowa State is now averaging four more attempts per game than they did a year ago and Noel has been one of the biggest beneficiaries, coming off his best performance of the season with 6-94-2 on 11 targets vs. Texas. Two of the three best performances from opposing WRs against Oklahoma this season have come in the slot where Noel plays with Taye Barber (19.7) and Trey Palmer (24.2).
Best of the Rest – QB Hunter Dekkers ($5,300) Too cheap for a QB projected at 22.6 fantasy points this week. We spoke on the increased passing volume for Iowa State in 2022. The Sooners are allowing 32.6 FPPG to opposing QB1s this season, the ninth highest mark in the country. And we’ve seen just a bit more success lately with Dekkers running the football – 30 or more yards in back-to-back games. I would not recommend risking RB Cartevious Norton ($3,700) in a lineup, but Campbell mentioned the freshman twice when commenting on the RB room. A takeover will happen at some point in the future, just a matter of when.
Injury Notes – n/a
TCU vs. West Virginia
Point-Spread: TCU -7.5
O/U Total: 68.5
Implied Score: TCU 38 – WVU 30.5
Weather: 57 degrees / 0% rain / 5 mph winds
TCU:
Top Play(s) – RB Kendre Miller ($6,300) Remember there were folks in the offseason that were worried about a RBBC for TCU? Those have been Sonny Dykes’ MO in the past, but speaks to just how good Kendre Miller has been, garnering 50% of the market share. The West Virginia rush defense has been gouged in the last two weeks, allowing over 400 total rushing yards and five touchdowns combined to Baylor and Texas Tech. Neither team runs the ball as effectively as TCU either.
Fade – WRs not named Quentin Johnston. Same story each week with TCU on the slate. QJ accounts for 29% of the team’s target share with no other receiver higher than 13%. Not to mention they’re all overpriced.
Bargain Bin – TE Jared Wiley ($4,000) Not sure of the reason for the recent uptick in production, but the former Texas transfer has found the end-zone in each of the last two games. Half of his season-long targets (7) have come in that span. WVU is allowing 9.8 FPPG to opposing TE1s and Texas Tech must’ve seen something on tape because they utilized Mason Tharp often in the passing game.
Pivot Play – WR Quentin Johnston ($7,200) Is this real life? Three-straight productive games from Quentin Johnston? In this economy? The CFF and DFS player in me is hesitant to say this will continue for four straight, but there is a definite uptick in targets during this span (39) to where TCU is scheming ways for QJ to get the football around the opposing double teams. Opposing WR1s are averaging 21.5 FPPG against the Mountaineers this season.
Best of the Rest – n/a
Injury Notes – n/a
West Virginia:
Top Play(s) – RB CJ Donaldson ($5,200) Color me skeptical that West Virginia is going to reach the implied total of 31 points this week after getting thrashed by Texas Tech last Saturday. That does boost the team projections this week, though, and Donaldson looks enticing at his price-point given that Tony Mathis Jr. will not play. TCU is every bit of average defensively against the run, ranking 69th (nice) in rush play success rate and giving up 19.0 FPPG to opposing RB1s this season. Donaldson should get 75% of the work, splitting with backup Justin Johnson.
Fade – QB JT Daniels ($6,500) A surplus of cheaper / better options at the QB position this week to where we don’t even need to consider Daniels, who is coming off his worst performance of the year with three interceptions vs. the Red Raiders. 35th in pass play success rate defensively for the Horned Frogs who have one of the better secondaries in the Big 12.
Bargain Bin – n/a
Pivot Play – WR Kaden Prather ($5,400) Let’s throw out last week’s performance where Prather and Bryce Ford-Wheaton were both below-average. Prather still saw a team-high eight targets in the loss but had a difficult matchup against a pair of Tech corners that both stood 6-foot-3, eliminating his weekly height advantage. While talented, TCU’s starting defensive backs will give way about 3-4 inches to Prather.
Best of the Rest – WR Bryce Ford-Wheaton ($6,700) and Sam James ($5,300) Weekly reminder that the WVU starting trio combines for 65% of the team’s total target share. BFW is probably a fade in cost only, where both Prather and James have matched his production the past few weeks.
Injury Notes – RB Tony Mathis Jr. ($5,000) Confirmed out due to injury. Backup Justin Johnson ($4,500) is considered doubtful. All the carries for CJ Donaldson?
Georgia Tech vs. Florida State
Point-Spread: FSU -24.5
O/U Total: 47.5
Implied Score: FSU 36 – G-Tech 11.5
Weather: 75 degrees / 0% rain / 10 mph winds
Georgia Tech:
Lowest implied total on the slate. Jeff Sims is injured. There is more college basketball talk on the Georgia Tech website than football. Let’s do the same and move along.
Florida State:
Top Play(s) – RB Lawrance Toafili ($3,900) With our projection that Ward is out this week, both Florida State running backs are in play at their pricing. Our current projection has Trey Benson ($4,600) over Toafili, but not entirely sure that’s correct. Toafili played double the amount of snaps that Benson did the last time we saw Florida State against Clemson in Week 7 with more rushing attempts. Reading up on the Florida State practice reports for the week, Toafili was mentioned repeatedly with big plays during drills.
Fade – WR Johnny Wilson ($6,100) We have just one game of evidence this season where Florida State has won by more than a touchdown. In that contest, Travis completed a pass to eight different players, with a backup leading the way with five receptions. Wilson was targeted five times with just two catches. Far and away team leader with 49 targets on the year, but I’ll lean towards a run-heavy game script from the Seminoles in this matchup so won’t be spending up to get Wilson.
Bargain Bin – n/a
Pivot Play – QB Jordan Travis ($8,200) These middle-tiered salary quarterbacks are going to go largely ignored on Saturday, so there could be some leverage in playing someone like Jordan Travis who’ll see less than 5% ownership in larger GPPs. Fact is that FSU’s WR1 has 23% of the target share and the top RB1 (who is injured) has just 30% of the volume share. The offense centers around Travis who has scored 21+ fantasy points in each of the last four games, facing a defense that allowed Kedon Slovis and Brennan Armstrong to score 30 fantasy points. Yikes.
Best of the Rest – n/a. We’re saving some time here. FSU will rotate 5-6 receivers on Saturday who won’t see more than 4-5 targets a piece. Travis and the RBs are the only realistic plays for FSU this weekend.
Injury Notes – RB Treshaun Ward ($5,300) Only official quote that I’ve seen is Florida State is “continuing to see” where Ward is at physically. In a blowout scenario, I’d assume we do not see Ward on Saturday, particularly with the depth FSU possesses in the backfield.
Notre Dame vs. Syracuse
Point-Spread: Syr -2.5
O/U Total: 47.5
Implied Score: Syr 25 – ND 22.5
Weather: Dome
Notre Dame:
Top Play(s) – TE Michael Mayer ($5,600) 36% target share from a tight end is wild. We’ve said all there is to be said about Mayer this season. Syracuse’s secondary is elite, but we do have evidence of Purdue’s Payne Durham scoring 29 fantasy points against this defense earlier in the year. Mayer will again be a high ownership play in GPPs (that I’ll likely fade).
Fade – QB Drew Pyne ($5,400) “X” him out of your potential player pool right now. Syracuse is 6th in pass play success rate defensively and allowing 14.9 FPPG to opposing QB1s – ninth best mark in the country. If Pyne can only complete 50% of his passes at home against UNLV, I have zero confidence he’ll do much of anything against this Syracuse secondary.
Bargain Bin – RB Logan Diggs ($3,900) Benefitted some from the Audric Estime fumbling issues, but it was mentioned even prior to the UNLV matchup that the staff wanted to get Diggs more work. 28 carries later, Diggs is looking like the new RB1 for the Irish. Overall, the defense for the Orange is one of the best in the ACC but can be vulnerable at times against the run. 16.6 FPPG this season for opposing RB1s and Syracuse is 32nd in rush play success rate. Still very good, but
Pivot Play – n/a. I’ve now sat here trying to come up with a reason why we could play a Lorenzo Styles or Chris Tyree, but 20 minutes has passed, and nothing comes to mind. WR Braden Lenzy ($3,300) would be my dart throw because he’s cheap and now second on the team in routes run, getting more playing time than any other ND receiver the last few weeks. But that is a massive stretch facing this secondary.
Best of the Rest – n/a
Injury Notes – n/a
Syracuse:
Top Play(s) – QB Garrett Shrader ($5,900) If Garrett Shrader can get 22 fantasy points, on the road, against Clemson…then he absolutely can hit that number at home against the Irish. And essentially that’s all we would need at his low cost.
Fade – Everyone beyond the Top 3. We don’t have a Syracuse player projected at more than six fantasy points outside of Shrader, Tucker and Oronde Gadsden. That trio has had a hand in 90% of the team’s total offensive production this season.
Bargain Bin – n/a
Pivot Play – RB Sean Tucker ($7,000) This always happens. HC Dino Babers was questioned this week as to why Sean Tucker only received five carries in the loss to Clemson last Saturday. Babers’ response? “We have corrected that.” 20+ rushing attempts incoming for Tucker? Notre Dame is 61st in yards allowed per game on the ground and 89th in rush play success rate. Tucker can churn out yards on this defense.
Best of the Rest – WR Oronde Gadsden ($6,100) Taking out Sean Tucker’s 36 targets, and Gadsden accounts for 36% of the team’s total target share among receivers and tight ends. And his production has picked up the last five weeks, averaging 102.4 YPG in that span.
Injury Notes – n/a
Ohio State vs. Penn State
Point-Spread: OSU -14.5
O/U Total: 60.5
Implied Score: OSU 37.5 – PSU 23
Weather: 52 degrees / 5% rain / 1 mph winds
Ohio State:
Top Play(s) – WR Emeka Egbuka ($6,900) One of the highest floors of any WR on the slate, now having scored a touchdown in six of the seven games played this season, and averages 8.3 targets per game. How good is the Penn State secondary, though? They haven’t allowed a single WR to score more than 14 fantasy points since Week 2.
Fade – QB C.J. Stroud ($9,200) I’d say Stroud is close to a fade in this matchup at his pricing. Yes, he’s going for the Heisman, but this is close to an elite Penn State secondary. Opposing QBs are averaging just 16.7 FPPG against the Nittany Lions. The group is 29th in pass play success rate and 43rd in limiting explosiveness.
Bargain Bin – TE Cade Stover ($3,000) Third on the team in targets (25) and routes run, while playing the most offensive snaps of any offensive player outside of the quarterback and offensive line. Penn State just allowed 17 fantasy points to TE Brevyn Spann-Ford last week.
Pivot Play – RBs. I want to preface this by saying Ohio State should be able to run on Penn State Saturday, so it’s a tough fade seeing as what Michigan and Minnesota have done against this fraudulent run defense the last two games. But I’m not sure either TreVeyon Henderson or Miyan Williams are fully 100% after watching last week’s contest, and coaches were frustrated with both players as they were bouncing it outside too frequently. And the move of Chip Trayanum back to running back this past week…is that a hint at something? Will anyone get the bulk of the carries Saturday? Could be a low-owned slate-breaker if someone does.
Best of the Rest – WR Marvin Harrison Jr. ($7,400) Marvin Harrison Jr. vs. Joey Porter Jr. Future NFL battle between sons of former NFL greats. 10 receiving touchdowns in the last six games for Harrison Jr., though he’ll be matched up with a defensive back that has nine pass breakups and has just a 42.3% conversion rate against him on 26 targets.
Injury Notes – WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba ($6,500) Strong lean right now that JSN does not play on Saturday after injuring what looked to be his hamstring last Saturday. Rest is the best recovery for this type of injury. And I hate to play into some of these storylines, but JSN does have the NFL to think about in his future. Both he and Ohio State should slow-play his recovery. The Buckeyes have enough weapons to withstand.
Penn State:
Top Play(s) – WR Mitchell Tinsley ($6,100) I won’t have a single Penn State player in my lineups this week, FWIW. Figure with game script and the Nittany Lions trailing the receivers are your best bet at production. Tinsley leads the team in targets (45), routes run, and is tied for first in touchdowns (4). The Buckeyes also possess and elite secondary, allowing just 11.7 FPPG to opposing WR1s this season.
Fade – QB Sean Clifford ($7,000) I’ve got a lot of money invested on Sean Clifford under props this week as he hasn’t hit 230 yards in five of the last six games. Ohio State is second in pass play success rate nationally and giving up just 12.6 FPPG to opposing QB1s.
Bargain Bin – WR Harrison Wallace ($3,000) We wouldn’t consider Wallace even if Keandre Lambert-Smith didn’t play for another week, but he has seen three or more targets in each of the last four games since entering the starting lineup.
Pivot Play – WR Parker Washington ($6,000) We are seeing a slight uptick in production from Washington of late. Averaged 4.3 targets per game in the first three weeks. Last four? That number has spiked to 7.25. Found the end-zone for the first time all year vs. Minnesota last week.
Best of the Rest – RB Nick Singleton ($5,100) and Kaytron Allen ($4,200) Wonder if Penn State takes the Notre Dame approach and trying to muck up this matchup as much as possible. Finding success on the ground will be the only way the Nittany Lions have a chance here and the duo of Singleton/Allen can match up talent wise with Ohio State, albeit youthful talent. The problem? Ohio State has allowed the fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs in the country.
Injury Notes – WR Keandre Lambert-Smith ($4,800) KLS has not played for the last four weeks, but it was confirmed that he was at practice on Wednesday.
Rutgers vs. Minnesota
Point-Spread: Minn -13.5
O/U Total: 40.5
Implied Score: Minn 27 – Rut 13.5
Weather: 62 degrees / 0% rain / 12 mph winds
Rutgers:
Second-lowest implied total on the slate and not a single player projected at over 12 fantasy points. That said, I’m very surprised DK still have freshman RB Samuel Brown ($3,000) listed at min pricing after taking over the starting job three weeks ago in the Rutgers backfield. Minnesota is only allowing 14.3 FPPG this season to opposing RB1s but are 55th in rush play success rate defensively and have allowed the last three Big Ten opponents to average nearly five yards a carry. Brown is a min-priced player that at least makes some sense.
Minnesota:
Tell me a reason not to play RB Mo Ibrahim ($7,300). Price is where we want it. 20+ carries is a near lock when Minnesota is a two-touchdown favorite. Rutgers is one of the country’s better run defenses, ranking 22nd in rush play success rate, but we can all agree at this point that Ibrahim is matchup-proof. Minnesota’s offensive line is one of the best run blocking groups in the entire country, ranked 9th in line yards and 13th in stuff rate.
Florida vs. Georgia
Point-Spread: UGA -22.5
O/U Total: 56.5
Implied Score: UGA 39.5 – Fla 17
Weather: 77 degrees / 95% rain / 14 mph winds
Florida:
Likely a full team fade here but want to cover a few things. The starting WR trio of Justin Shorter ($4,300), Ricky Pearsall ($5,000) and Xzavier Henderson ($4,900) do combine for 60% of the team’s total target share. Not a situation like we had at Louisiana under Billy Napier where 10 different receivers would catch a pass. If wanting to pair a receiver with QB Anthony Richardson ($6,000), those three are your options. As for Richardson, it’ll be a fade for me facing a team that is top five in both rush and pass play success rate defensively with Georgia. How can you rationalize Richardson at $6k when Garrett Shrader is right there for $100 cheaper and a higher projection. Georgia is also allowing only 11.9 FPPG to opposing running backs so we’re out on RB Montrell Johnson ($5,900) at his pricing.
Georgia:
Top Play(s) – QB Stetson Bennett ($8,400) The Dawgs are second in the SEC in both yards per game through the air (329.9) and attempts (37.4). I won’t pretend to have major insights into a team that I rarely watch, but Bennett is the safest choice of the bunch, facing a Florida defense that is 106th in pass play success rate and allowing 30.0 FPPG to opposing quarterbacks this season.
Fade – WRs. A Georgia receiver hasn’t caught more than five passes since Week 4, and WR1 Ladd McConkey leads the team with just 16% target share. Georgia spreads it around too much as per usual.
Bargain Bin – RB Daijun Edwards ($4,100) Double-digit carries for Edwards in each of the last four games with five rushing TDs in that span. Even if Kendall Milton returns from injury, Edwards has performed well enough to where I don’t believe he’ll be cut out of the rotation. Florida is ranked 13th in the SEC in rush defense, is 112th in rush play success rate and allowing 18.4 FPPG to RB1s.
Pivot Play – TE Brock Bowers ($6,600) https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IIZX2ebgtCQ About that time we’re due for a Brock Bowers blowup game, right? If you have any analysis on when to predict a Brock Bowers slate-breaking performance, please send it my way.
Best of the Rest – RB Kenny McIntosh ($6,800) Third on the team in targets (32), second in receptions (28) and thriving in the James Cook role. To the extent where we can play him at $6.8k? Nope. Seeing just 7.5 rush attempts per game and that could decline further if Milton is back in the lineup.
Injury Notes – WR Adonai Mitchell ($5,700) Minimal practice reps this week for Mitchell with the team’s 247Sports beat writer ruling him out essentially. RB Kendall Milton ($5,600) was at practice Monday and Tuesday of this week but haven’t seen an update anywhere. Are we sure he’s getting a starting job back anyways?
Oregon vs. California
Point-Spread: Oreg -17.5
O/U Total: 58.5
Implied Score: Oreg 38 – Cal 20.5
Weather: 64 degrees / 0% rain / 4 mph winds
Oregon:
Top Play(s) – WR Troy Franklin ($6,800) Really don’t see a ton of middle-tier or cheap WR options this week, so I’ll try and spend up at the position. Homecoming game for Franklin who is from the California area and is on pace to break many of Oregon’s single season receiving records. 14-game projection would put him at around 70 receptions for 1,122 yards and 10 scores. WR1s are averaging exactly 20.0 FPPG against the Bears in 2022.
Fade – WR Chase Cota ($4,700) Second on the team in targets (33), receptions (23) and first in routes run ahead of even Troy Franklin. But Cota is the possession guy at 1.53 yards per route run and an aDOT of just 8.8. Fine for someone looking for 8-12 fantasy points this week but won’t make much of a dent in GPPs.
Bargain Bin – RB Jordan James ($3,000) You’re banking on Oregon blowing out California on Saturday if interested in playing James. Vegas line has not moved off the 17.5 number this week. The 4-star freshman and former Georgia commit now has found the end-zone in each of the last four games.
Pivot Play – QB Bo Nix ($9,400) Nix must come back to Earth at some point, right? Six straight games now of 30 fantasy points or more, and now facing a California pass defense that is dead last in the Pac-12. The Bears have done a good job at limiting plays over the top but are 96th in pass play success rate. I’ll call for this being the first game since September in which Nix does not hit the 30-point fantasy mark.
Best of the Rest – RB Mar’Keise Irving ($5,700) Solid, but unspectacular play that will get you 15-18 fantasy points but won’t ever be a slate-breaker with how Oregon divvies up carries. Saw a season-high 19 carries vs. UCLA with three receptions in each of the last two weeks. Cal is better against the run vs. the pass but doesn’t matter with an offensive line like Oregon’s that ranks 1st in line yards, 26th in stuff rate and 2nd in rush play success rate. There are no weaknesses on this offense. Biggest issue is the 9.28 attempts per game that RB Noah Whittington ($4,000) gets. On the season, Whittington has double the amount of red-zone carries (14) that Irving does (7).
Injury Notes – n/a
California:
Top Play(s) – WR J. Michael Sturdivant ($5,200) Will be very curious to see what ownership percentages the former 4-star recruit has in larger GPPs because this is not a name we’ve seen much on main or night slates this year, so the casual player may be unfamiliar. Season-high 104 yards on eight receptions for Sturdivant against Washington last week, now giving him 24 targets in the last two games alone with five touchdowns in five games.
Fade – QB Jack Plummer ($5,300) I suppose Plummer is cheap enough to where you at least have to pause about possibly rostering him. Of the two defensive components, Oregon is far worse at defending the pass, ranking 114th in success rate and allowing 28.1 FPPG to opposing QBs. As a non-runner, though, Plummer has failed to surpass 22 fantasy points all year so his ceiling is definitely capped.
Bargain Bin – WR Mavin Anderson ($3,500) A distant third in targets (34) behind Sturdivant and Jeremiah Hunter but is second among receivers in routes run and offensive snaps so he’s on the field plenty. Slight uptick in production with nine receptions on 12 targets in the last two games.
Pivot Play – RB Jadyn Ott ($6,400) Oregon is better at stopping the run based on the advanced data, ranking 39th in rush play success rate, but is allowing the eighth most fantasy points in the country to opposing RB1s (21.6) with four running backs scoring 20 fantasy points or more against them. Complicating matters further, backup DeCarlos Brooks ($3,900) ended up as Cal’s highest-graded running back last week, matching his season-high with 43 yards on 10 attempts. Probably best to avoid the entire situation in a negative game script scenario.
Best of the Rest – n/a
Injury Notes – WR Jeremiah Hunter ($5,000) Hunter was suited up on the sidelines last week but did not play against Washington. Have to assume he’ll return Saturday unless there is something behind the scenes that we aren’t privy to. WR Mason Starling ($3,100) started in his place but was seen on crutches in the second half.
Oklahoma State vs. Kansas State
Point-Spread: KSU -1.5
O/U Total: 55.5
Implied Score: KSU 28.5 – OK St 27
Weather: 65 degrees / 0% rain / 6 mph winds
Oklahoma State:
Top Play(s) – QB Spencer Sanders ($8,300) The Vegas lines have flipped over the course of the week with Oklahoma State now a 1.5-point dog. Advanced numbers love the Kansas State secondary, but the Wildcats have allowed three QBs this season to score 30 fantasy points or more, giving up 26.3 FPPG to opposing QB1s. This game will be much slower than last week as Kansas State is 98th in plays per game, but we have a healthy 28-point projection for a quarterback that has scored 30 or more fantasy points in the last three games all while not being 100% healthy. Sounds like Kansas State has multiple injuries in the secondary right now too.
Fade – WR Brennan Presley ($5,900) Even with backup WRs in the lineup, it’s still the outside receivers that produced more last week against Texas. That’s the MO of a Mike Gundy offense forever and always. Presley was fine with 6-60-1 on nine targets, but we saw three other receivers finish with more targets on the day. Oklahoma State likely won’t come close to running 100 plays like they did a week ago vs. Kansas State.
Bargain Bin – WR Stephon Johnson Jr. ($3,000) As a Jaden Bray truther, last week was quite depressing seeing some of the younger Oklahoma State receivers thrive vs. Texas. The 6-foot-2 freshman played 77 of 100 offensive snaps, hauling in 6-90-0 on 10 targets. Johnson’s viability this week is dependent on Braydon Johnson as they play the same position, so be ready to pivot one way or the other Saturday morning.
Pivot Play – WR Bryson Green ($5,400) 21 of Green’s 38 targets have come in the last three games with multiple 100-yard receiving performances. Injuries have played a role but no Oklahoma State receiver has more than 18% target share on the year. I’d probably lean towards the cheapest option here if wanting to roster an Oklahoma State WR, but Green is seeing the field more than any other wideout. Played 100 of 105 offensive snaps last week.
Best of the Rest – RB Jaden Nixon ($4,900) Above average run defense for Kansas State. 36th in rush play success rate and have held their last three opponents to under four yards a carry. Just two running backs have scored double-digit fantasy points against KSU this season. That said, Nixon could get the bulk of the work Saturday if Dom Richardson doesn’t play and provided a spark vs. Texas with a 51-yard run. He’s the most explosive of the Oklahoma State running backs. WR John Paul Richardson ($4,500) led the Cowboys with 12 targets in Week 8.
Injury Notes – For as big a football program as Oklahoma State is, they have below-average coverage from beat writers, and Mike Gundy keeps injury information under lockdown. Don’t expect WR Jaden Bray ($4,700) to play at this point. RB Dominic Richardson ($6,100) left last week with an undisclosed injury, and we haven’t been able to find an update. He’s failed to average over four yards a carry since Week 2 so we don’t have much interest at all even if he does play. WR Braydon Johnson ($6,400) did not play at all vs. Texas.
Kansas State:
Does the Vegas line swing this week mean we’re seeing Adrian Martinez ($8,100) on Saturday? HC Chris Klieman called Martinez a game-time decision. To further matters, Will Howard ($6,200) is also questionable, meaning we could see third-stringer Jake Rubley. This will be a Saturday morning decision, and an important one as Oklahoma State has the worst pass defense in the conference. 32.6 FPPG allowed to opposing QB1s for the Cowboys this season. Those numbers are equally as bad against opposing RB1s as Oklahoma State is giving up the third most FPPG in the entire country (23.6). Five different running backs have scored at least 20 fantasy points against the Cowboys. RB Deuce Vaughn ($7,000) will be a popular play on Saturday with his pricing, but consider that he’s also not 100%, though deemed probable. As one would expect, Oklahoma State is also giving up chunk plays to WRs, allowing 27.13 FPPG to opposing WR1s – the second highest number in the country behind Middle Tennessee. I’d view Phillip Brooks ($4,800) and Malik Knowles ($4,500) as optional plays because of that, but Kansas State doesn’t throw enough to warrant much consideration. The Wildcats pass on just 39% of offensive plays.
Wake Forest vs. Louisville
Point-Spread: WF -3.5
O/U Total: 63.5
Implied Score: WF 33.5 – UL 30
Weather: 72 degrees / 0% rain / 3 mph winds
Wake Forest:
Top Play(s) – QB Sam Hartman ($8,900) If you can find a way to go cheap at running back and/or wide receiver, Sam Hartman is my favorite spend-up quarterback option on the slate. High projected total for both teams with WF and Louisville both in the top half of the country in terms of pace. And aside from one half of football against Florida State, the Deacons have struggled to run the ball with any consistency in ACC play, averaging just three yards a carry.
Fade – RB Justice Ellison ($6,000) Three running backs saw between 7-9 carries last week against Boston College, and we hinted at the struggles WF has had against any opponent with a pulse. Louisville does have a pulse, ranking 34th in rush play success rate defensively.
Bargain Bin – n/a
Pivot Play – WR A.T. Perry ($7,000) Every week it’s been a new Wake Forest receiver leading the charge. Perry remains the safest bet of the bunch with a team-high 24% target share and the team leader in routes run, but you can make the case for any of the Wake receivers as a possible play. Here’s where we like Perry, Jahmal Banks ($6,300) and Donavon Greene ($5,300) this week. Louisville is 116th in pass play explosiveness defensively where they can get beat over the top. All three of Wake Forest’s outside receivers have a season-long aDOT over 14 yards.
Best of the Rest – WR Taylor Morin ($4,900) Just knew this was going to happen at some point. Less than 21 receiving yards in the four games leading up to Week 8 and then explodes for four catches, 48 yards and two scores. Only played six more offensive snaps than fellow slot receiver KeShawn Williams ($3,800).
Injury Notes – n/a
Louisiana:
Top Play(s) – QB Malik Cunningham ($8,000) First glance I was very surprised to see Malik Cunningham as the highest projected player of the weekend. Sub-par statistical week against Pittsburgh but makes all the sense in the world when Louisville ran just 60 offensive plays, their lowest number of the entire season. Was all about limiting mistakes against an inept Pittsburgh offense. Can’t do that against this Wake Forest offense, so expect Louisville to unleash their best player against a Deacons defense that is allowing 29.5 FPPG to opposing QB1s – right around where Cunningham’s projection sits. Vegas game total has gone up as the days have past so bettors are expecting a high-scoring affair.
Fade – RB Jawhar Jordan ($3,200) Explosive player, but he’s fallen to at least RB2 behind Trevion Cooley, averaging under three yards a carry each of the last three games. Expect to see more Jalen Mitchell this week.
Bargain Bin – RB Trevion Cooley ($3,000) Don’t understand why Cooley is min-priced as he’s led the Cardinals in rushing (among RBs) in each of the last two games. Offensive snaps were still relatively split between Cooley and Jahwar Jordan, and Jalen Mitchell did return to the lineup, but Cooley has clearly been the most effective of the group. Tiyon Evans’ return would throw a wrench into this plan, but Cooley should be the RB1 moving forward. Average across the board for Wake Forest’s run defense, ranking 63rd in rush play success rate and allowing around 16 FPPG to RB1s.
Pivot Play – WR Tyler Hudson ($7,300) Expensive for a player averaging just 12.6 FPPG but is the only consistent playmaker Louisville has on offense outside of Cunningham. Played all 60 offensive snaps against Pittsburgh last week and leads the team with 27% of the target share. Won’t have much ownership at his salary, especially with Ahmari Huggins-Bruce ($5,100) back in the lineup. FWIW – I disagree with our current projection of AHB ahead of Hudson, and that needs to be updated. Stunned that Hudson has yet to find the end-zone this season, and think that changes on Saturday.
Best of the Rest – TE Marshon Ford ($4,200) Ford has found the end-zone in each of the last two games, now sitting third on the team in targets (30) and receptions (20), and second in routes run. Very few productive ACC tight ends, but remember the Clemson game earlier in the year where the Tigers had two players score 19 fantasy points in Jake Briningstool and Davis Allen.
Injury Notes – RB Tiyon Evans ($5,100) Evans remains day-to-day, but I question if he even gets his job back when healthy.
Illinois vs. Nebraska
Point-Spread: Illini -7.5
O/U Total: 50.5
Implied Score: Illini 29 – Neb 21.5
Weather: 67 degrees / 0% rain / 6 mph winds
Illinois:
Same question I posed with Mo Ibrahim – tell me a reason to not have RB Chase Brown ($7,500) in our lineups, outside of heavy ownership in GPPs. Leads the country in attempts per game 27.4. Favorable matchup against a Nebraska defense that is allowing 21.1 FPPG to opposing RB1s in 2022. And we know they’re going to feed Brown the rock as he’s got an outside chance at a spot in New York City for the Heisman Trophy if the Illini keep winning. We’re actually getting a decent projection for QB Tommy DeVito ($6,000) who now has scored 20+ fantasy points in three of the last four, with the fourth being the matchup with Iowa where he got injured. Does that mean I’m playing DeVito? Hell no, but you can make the argument for it at $6k against a defense that is giving up over 27 FPPG to opposing QBs. WR Isaiah Williams ($5,800) continues to pace the team with 28% target share but we’re seeing others involved, primarily Pat Bryant ($5,400) who is averaging 6.5 targets per over the last four weeks.
Nebraska:
Top Play(s) – WR Trey Palmer ($7,600) The defensive numbers for Illinois are elite, but we have to consider competition played in the Big Ten West where offense doesn’t exist. Speaking of elite, Palmer has been every bit the word the last month or so with five receiving touchdowns, including his 7-237-2 performance in Week 7 vs. Purdue. 31% total target share and the only player on the team with more than one receiving touchdown.
Fade – QB Casey Thompson ($6,400) Numbers will look good when facing Spencer Petras, Tanner Morgan and Graham Mertz. But the Illini pass defense stacks up with any team in the nation statistically. 4th in the country in pass play success rate and have given up the fewest fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks in the country. Sounds like Casey Thompson needed the bye week to heal from the beating he’s taken this season. He’s going to be hit again on Saturday as the Illini are second in the Big Ten in sacks.
Bargain Bin – TE Travis Vokolek ($3,500) The senior tight end has been the second-most consistent option in the passing game behind Palmer since coming back from injury with 15 of his 22 targets coming in the last three weeks.
Pivot Play – RB Anthony Grant ($6,700) Once again the Nebraska offensive line gets high marks as a run blocking unit, ranking 14th in line yards and 4th in stuff rate. Why that hasn’t translated to production the last few weeks, I’m not sure. Grant has rushed for under 50 yards in three of the last four games, though he continues to dominate the backfield volume share for the Cornhuskers (60%). Just 9.6 FPPG allowed to opposing RB1s this season for the Illini, and while we critique their inflated pass defensive numbers, that’s not the case on the ground when you’ve faced Mo Ibrahim, Titus Swen and Braelon Allen.
Best of the Rest – n/a
Injury Notes – n/a
Cincinnati vs. Central Florida
Point-Spread: UCF -1.5
O/U Total: 56.5
Implied Score: UCF 29 – Cin 27.5
Weather: 73 degrees / 52% rain / 8 mph winds
Cincinnati:
Top Play(s) – RB Charles McClelland ($6,200) This season is playing out EXACTLY like a few years back when Jerome Ford transferred in, yet it was Gerrid Doaks who was the 1A in the backfield. Corey Kiner ($5,200) will keep getting 10-12 touches per game, but McClelland has been excellent with over 300 rushing yards combined the last two weeks. UCF is allowing just 14 FPPG to opposing RB1s on the year, so this will be the toughest test McClelland’s had in a few weeks.
Fade – QB Ben Bryant ($7,200) Everyone would probably agree it was only a matter of time before Ben Bryant came back to reality. It happened last year as MAC teams got more tape on Bryant, and he faltered in November. Same thing is occurring this year as he’s failed to score 15 fantasy points in each of the last three games, completing under 60% of his throws. Give Bryant some benefit of the doubt he was played last week primarily without his two best receivers, but you’re not playing him this week at $7.2k and a 15-point projection. UCF does a great job at limiting big plays with only five passes given up of 30 yards or more this season.
Bargain Bin – n/a
Pivot Play – WR Jadon Thompson ($4,600) If Scott is out again on Saturday, Thompson has been the biggest beneficiary, seeing season-highs in offensive snaps each of the last two weeks. Four receptions on five targets against SMU, both of which were also season-highs. He’s eliminated from the player pool if Scott returns.
Best of the Rest – TE Josh Whyle ($4,000) Season-high six targets for Whyle last week with the injuries at WR, but UCF has shut down opposing tight ends, limiting them to just 3.8 FPPG.
Injury Notes – WR Tyler Scott ($6,900) Scott was not in uniform last week and seen with a boot on his foot on the sidelines. No updates from me there, or with senior Tre Tucker ($5,900) who left last week’s game against SMU in the second half with an injury. My one piece of advice is don’t search Tre Tucker on Twitter (you’ll see why).
Central Florida:
Top Play(s) – QB John Rhys Plumlee ($8,700) Think this is the game where JRP breaks out of his running slump and utilizes his legs which is desperately needed to jump start the UCF offense. Two worst performances from the Cincy defense this season came against dual-threats where KJ Jefferson (62 rush yards) and Gerry Bohanon (114 rush yards) both score 30 or more fantasy points. How JPR fares through the air? All of a sudden this is looking like the Cincy secondary of last year, ranking 11th in pass play success rate and ranked 18th in yards allowed.
Fade – WR Javon Baker ($6,400) Just 35 offensive snaps combined the last two weeks for Baker. I thought maybe he’d fallen out of favor, but HC Gus Malzahn confirmed there’s an injury there to where Baker couldn’t move in pregame warmups the way he needed to in order to be effective. General rule of thumb is unless we get confirmation that Baker is healthy, we can’t play him.
Bargain Bin – RJ Harvey ($4,000) Johnny Richardson has lost his backup job, seeing just 12 touches in the last three weeks. Volume is minimal with Harvey averaging just 5.2 carries per contest but is now at 8.0 yards per attempt on the year. He needs more touches.
Pivot Play – RB Isaiah Bowser ($6,500) While second on the team in carries and yards, Bowser does lead in rushing touchdowns (10) and has the team lead in red-zone carries (30), compared to 21 for JRP. Cincinnati is allowing just 15 FPPG to opposing RB1s this season and are 11th in rush play success rate, so we don’t foresee a ton of running room for Bowser on Saturday.
Best of the Rest – WR Ryan O’Keefe ($7,100) O’Keefe failed to make it three-straight 100-yard performances, tallying just 28 yards against East Carolina. The volume was there still, garnering eight targets, and would’ve been more catches had he not dropped two passes. WR Kobe Hudson ($6,400) has seen an uptick with Baker hobbled, finishing with a season-high nine targets vs. ECU. It was the most offensive snaps Hudson’s played in a game all year. For as good as the Cincinnati secondary has performed, opposing WR1s have had success in 2022, averaging over 18 FPPG.
Injury Notes – See Javon Baker above.
