Troy @ Coastal Carolina
Point-Spread: CCU -18
O/U Total: 52
Weather: 68 degrees / 68% rain / 13 mph winds
Coastal Carolina:
Things you didn’t realize entering Week 9 of the College Football season for $100 Alex – “This team is the No. 2 Scoring Defense in the Sun Belt.” What are the Troy Trojans? Game total felt low at first glance considering the Chants are averaging over 45 PPG this season, but the Trojans defense has been getting it done, ranked second in the conference in scoring, and allowing just 286.6 YPG total which is tops in the Sun Belt and No. 7 nationally. Troy also leads the conference with 12 interceptions and 66 tackles for loss. But where they really specialize this season is harassing opposing QBs, as they’re tops in the nation with 31 sacks.
So, with that said, while Grayson McCall is the clear-cut best QB on the slate, I don’t think having him in our lineups is a must given the Trojans allow just 18.0 FPPG to opposing QBs on the season. Could look to competition level here for Troy as they’ve beaten up the likes of Southern University, Georgia Southern, South Carolina and Southern Miss – none of whom have competent quarterback play this season. Malik Willis did score 35 fantasy points against Troy earlier in the year. Adding another dimension is the weather where we are looking at 68 percent chance precipitation and 13 MPH winds expected as of Wednesday writing this. Even if fading McCall, I do want a piece of the CCU passing offense with either (or both) Jaivon Heiligh or Isaiah Likely who combine for 52 percent of the team’s target share and 12 of the 19 passing touchdowns. If the Chants are scoring via the pass, safe bet it’s in the direction of one of those two players. WR2 Kameron Brown is a relatively cheap pivot at $4,600 with 15 of his 24 targets coming in the last three games. aDOT of just 10.7 but averaging 19.2 YPC so he’s killing it with the YAC.
Battle of the strengths on the ground where Coastal’s 11th ranked rush offense in the country meets the No. 1 run defense in the Sun Belt. On the season, Troy has given up the 13th fewest fantasy points to opposing running backs, sitting just one spot lower than CCU. Significant price difference here between Shermari Jones and Reese White makes me favor the latter, but Jones is the team’s primary red-zone option of the two. Particularly on DK, I’d rather spend up for the Coastal pass-catchers over the running backs given pricing, matchup, and concentration of volume. It is infinitely easier to pass on the Troy defense than run on it, with the Trojans ranking 10th in Rush Play Success rate.
Troy:
So, Gunnar Watson should’ve been the Troy starting quarterback this entire time, huh? The Trojans have now rattled off two straight victories since re-inserting Watson as the team’s starting QB, now completing 73 percent of his passes with three touchdowns in the last two games. Vast improvement over Taylor Powell, but we shouldn’t be fooled by a quarterback succeeding against Texas State (15:2 touchdown to interception ratio allowed) and Georgia Southern (worst pass defense in Sun Belt). True test comes this week against the best pass defense in the conference, allowing just 179 yards per game through the air and 17.8 FPPG to opposing QB1s this season. Add in the inclement weather, in a road spot, for a quarterback that doesn’t run at all, and we should easily fade Watson here.
Going to venture that WR1 Tez Johnson has one of the highest ownership percentages on the slate at $5,500 as he’s posted at least six receptions in each of the last five games with a team-high 54 targets. Those numbers could grow higher now that WR2 Reggie Todd is suspended indefinitely following an arrest on charges of interfering in the search for a suspected shooter and possession of marijuana. Real winner right there. Game week depth chart indicates 6-foot-1 sophomore Deshon Stoudemire will start in Todd’s place, though I’d be lying if I said I knew anything about the player. Luke Whittemore will start opposite Stoudemire on the outside, and might see an uptick in targets, but he’s been ineffective the last month despite playing the majority of contests with just five catches on 10 targets in the previous four weeks. Johnson’s counterpart in the slot, Jabre Barber, was shutout in Week 7 vs. Texas State with zero targets, but remains tied for third on the team in targets (30) with Whittemore and the team lead in touchdowns (2).
Very little consistency this season with regards to the Troy running backs, in part due to injury as Kimani Vidal has been limited for a chunk of the year. Looked the part in Week 7 with 162 rushing yards and two touchdowns on 26 carries against Texas State. As displayed last season, Vidal is a true threat coming out of the backfield as well, catching all eight of his targets the last two weeks. Sounds as though everyone else is healthy in the Troy backfield, but we only saw B.J. Smith against Texas State with 11 rushing attempts. If Vidal is full-go, which he appears to be based on comments from Chip Lindsey, I don’t think we see any RB outside of those two in the rotation. Coastal Carolina has given up the 12th fewest fantasy points in the country this season to opposing running backs, but are just 51st in Rush Play Success Rate. Not a dominant defensive front by any stretch, as Appalachian State gave us proof of that, but still a matchup that favors the Chants here.
South Florida @ East Carolina
Point-Spread: ECU -10
O/U Total: 56.5
Weather: 64 degrees / 84% rain / 9 mph winds
USF:
The Carolinas are getting hit by rain apparently on Thursday with 84 percent chance precipitation expected in Greenville. We’ll have to do quick double-checks on the quarterback situation, but I fully expect we see Timmy McClain under center despite leaving the game against Temple last week. Head coach Jeff Scott stated that McClain was cleared to play in the second half but with such a big lead, he was confident the backups could handle handing the ball off to the running backs. While McClain should get the start, the injury was an ankle that could potentially limit him in practice this week – notable because of McClain’s exceptional running ability which garnered some comparisons to a previous USF quarterback in Quinton Flowers. The freshman has completed 60 percent of his passes in three of his last four starters with zero interceptions, but would obviously feel much more comfortable rostering him if we knew he was at 100 percent health. East Carolina has been mediocre at defending the pass this season, allowing 21.8 FPPG to opposing quarterbacks, and were given all sorts of fits by another dual-threat QB earlier this year in Charleston Southern’s Jack Chambers who racked up over 450 yards of total offense.
The Bulls had a season-high 421 rushing yards in the win over Temple last week with both Jaren Mangham and Kelley Joiner Jr. topping the century mark on the ground. Feels a bit like an outlier performance as USF averaged under four yards a carry in five of the seven games played this season, but they’re finding the end-zone on the ground with at least two TDs in each of the last six weeks. Mangham should be close to a lock in this matchup, facing an ECU defense that allows 21.4 FPPG this season to opposing RB1s and are 81st in Rush Play Success Rate. Joiner’s 13 carries last week look to be due to game-script with the blowout as it was the first time he saw that many attempts this season.
Probably not a ton of interest here in the receivers given the impending weather and the fact that USF is 16th nationally in run play percentage (61.3) but as 10-point dogs, we should see a favorable game script. More injuries to monitor with WR1 Xavier Weaver who is dealing with a hamstring. Scott said that Weaver could have played last weekend if needed, and should be g2g on Thursday barring the hammy acting up in warmups. Hamstring injury on wet turf? No thanks. Talented true freshman Jimmy Horn Jr. led the team in Weaver’s absence with 7-56-0 on eight targets. 17 of Horn’s 25 targets this season have come in the last three games. Omar Dollison, Bryce Miller and Demarcus Gregory are rotational pieces at the position.
East Carolina:
Who knows what to expect from a week-to-week basis with this East Carolina offense? After a 50-point outburst against Tulane, the Pirates managed just two touchdowns in a road loss to UCF. Last week at Houston, quarterback Holton Ahlers had one of his better performances of the season, completing 62 percent of his passes for 278 yards and two scores, but in a losing effort. This is definitely a favorable matchup for Ahlers against a USF defense that allows over 28 FPPG to opposing QBs this season and are 126th in Pass Play Success Rate. The danger I see here is ECU being able to dominate on the ground with their RB tandem of Keaton Mitchell and Rahjai Harris, ala what NC State did in the opener against USF, rending Ahlers useless from a fantasy perspective. And the Bulls surely aren’t any better at defending the run, allowing nearly six yards per carry on the season with 14 rushing scores. Did hold Temple to just 48 yards on 14 carries last week, but that was a one-off looking at their game logs. Mitchell and Harris continue to split carries evenly this season, but we haven’t seen a ton of production since their 300-yard outburst against Tulane in Week 5. East Carolina’s offensive line continues to underwhelm again this season, ranked 111th in Stuff Rate and 112th in Line Yards, but nearly everyone has had success on the ground against this USF defense.
At the risk of ECU dominating on the ground, I don’t have a ton of interest at receiver either, outside of maybe Tyler Snead who has been the most consistent pass-catcher for the Pirates with at least four receptions in six of the seven games played. 10 targets in each of the last two weeks, with 23 percent of the team share. Much like his college career, C.J. Johnson is an enigma from week to week, with 2021 being his worst statistical season of his career. 19 receptions on 41 targets despite just one drop. Former UCLA transfer Audie Omotosho has been far more effective, particularly of late with 20 of his 21 receptions coming in the last five games with a receiving touchdown in consecutive weeks. His snap counts have sky-rocketed in that two-game span. WR4 Jsi Hatfield is averaging nearly 22 YPG with one of the higher aDOT’s on the team at 15.0, but is a shot in the dark play. Tight end usage is way up this season with sophomore Ryan Jones who has 14 receptions in the last three games alone. Not sure if based on defensive scheme or just that teams have bashed USF on the ground so badly that they don’t need to pass (probably the latter), but the Bulls are allowing just 1.2 FPPG to opposing TE1s this season – fourth-best mark in the country.
Become a member of theCFFsite and gain access to all exclusive DFS content, which includes all write-ups and Weekly Player Rankings/Projections. Click here for details.