Syracuse vs. Virginia Tech
Point-Spread: Va Tech -2.5
O/U Total: 47.5
Implied Score: Va Tech 25 – Syra 22.5
Weather: 65 degrees / 0% rain / 4 mph winds
Syracuse:
Top Play(s) – RB LeQuint Allen ($6,600) Allen was the lone bright spot offensively against Florida State last time out with 110 rushing yards on 19 carries and has now logged double-digit fantasy points in every game this season. The run defense for Virginia Tech is most certainly improving as the year goes along, having held both Pittsburgh and Wake Forest to under two yards a carry in their respective matchups. Then you remember the Florida State matchup where Trey Benson ran wild for 200+ yards on just 11 attempts. On the year, the Hokies are allowing 22.4 FPPG to opposing RB1s.
Fade – WR Isaiah Jones ($5,200) Jones played just 21 of 68 snaps in the Week 7 loss to Florida State as he’s not been 100% for a few weeks now. HC Dino Babers said on Monday that the bye week helped Jones, and that he’s “slowly getting better.” Still doesn’t sound full speed by that quote.
Bargain Bin – TE Dan Villari ($3,900) The Orange have incorporated Villari more the last three games with 10 of his season-long 13 targets coming in that span. Four tight ends have scored seven or more fantasy points against the Hokies this season.
Pivot Play – QB Garrett Shrader ($7,400) Shrader has been a hot topic this week in the college fantasy world as this is his last chance at showing he’s still a rosterable quarterback after failing to score more than seven fantasy points in either of his last two games. Bye week is a good reset, and this is definitely a better matchup, but the Hokies have fared well against quarterbacks this season. Gavin Wimsatt shockingly has the top fantasy performance against Virginia Tech, scoring 20.7 fantasy points in his matchup. Projections have Shrader fourth on the QB pecking order for this slate with the most expensive salary.
Best of the Rest – WRs The trio of Damien Alford, Donovan Brown and Umari Hatcher are separated by a grand total of three targets and six receiving yards. There is truly minimal difference between the three statistically. Hatcher does seem to be the one trending upwards of late with eight receptions on 10 targets in the last two games. Tied for the team lead in receiving touchdowns (2) with the highest YPC average and aDOT among the three. Would not stack multiple Cuse receivers in a lineup.
Injury Notes – n/a
Virginia Tech:
Top Play(s) – QB Kyron Drones ($6,400) Don’t think there should be this much separation in salary between Drones and the other QBs here, making the former Baylor transfer an appealing option for our lineups so cut cost. For the season, Syracuse is allowing just 20 FPPG to quarterbacks, but not surprisingly, the two best performances against this Orange secondary have come in the last few weeks, giving up a combined 67 fantasy points to Drake Maye and Jordan Travis. Nothing stands out statistically about the Syracuse pass defense that makes us avoid Drones by any means. His 31% usage rate on Virginia Tech rushing plays is tied for third in the country, which is another appeal.
Fade – RB Bhayshul Tuten ($5,500) Not a complete fade here but limit the exposure to Tuten against this Syracuse front seven. The Cuse are allowing just 13.8 FPPG to RB1s this season and have allowed just one RB to score more than 15 fantasy points in a game. 9th in EPA per rushing play and 42nd in rush D success rate, while the Hokies don’t grade out well in the run game, relying mostly on Drones.
Bargain Bin – TE Dae’Quan Wright ($3,700) Athletic tight end that is tied for fourth on the team in receptions (16), fourth in receiving yards (201) and third in targets (29). Normally wouldn’t stand out to us as a potential option, but Syracuse has been very forgiving to opposing tight ends this season. The sixth most fantasy points allowed to tight ends among teams playing in Week 9, with four different TE’s scoring 11 or more fantasy points against the Orange.
Pivot Play – WR Jaylin Lane ($5,800) Reading the game preview, the Virginia Tech beat writer suspects Lane could be a primary target for Drones in the passing game as Syracuse will bring down safety Justin Barron to defend in nickel packages. He’s allowed the most receptions of any Syracuse defender this season with 19 catches on 28 targets. Lane is coming off his best performance of the season with 102 yards and two scores against Wake Forest.
Best of the Rest – WR Stephen Gosnell ($4,600) or Da’Quan Felton ($5,100) Virginia Tech is an improving passing team as evidenced by the last few games but are not a pass-heavy team by any stretch – 92nd in pass play percentage (46.2%). I would limit it to just one receiver max in your lineups, but I would absolutely have one of the three in every lineup that you create. Syracuse has allowed five receivers this season to score 20 or more fantasy points against them.
Injury Notes – Don’t expect Grant Wells or Ali Jennings to play, though a report came out that the former Old Dominion receiver could play in the final two games of the regular season.
Georgia State vs. Georgia Southern
Point-Spread: GSU -1.5
O/U Total: 63.5
Implied Score: GSU 32.5 – G-St 31
Weather: 71 degrees / 0% rain / 10 mph winds
Georgia State:
Top Play(s) – QB Darren Grainger ($7,100) Most of my lineups created for Thursday will have Grainger in the QB slot with Drones in the super flex. Thursday’s in-state rivalry matchup faces a pair of solid run defenses and very poor pass defenses. Georgia Southern ranks 102nd in pass D success rate, allowing 20.2 fantasy points per game to QB1s. Three Sun Belt QBs have scored 21 fantasy points or more on GSU.
Fade – WR Jacari Carter ($3,300) Carter had over 120 career receptions coming into the year after spending three seasons at Merrimack and was thought by some (me) to potentially be the team’s WR1 in 2023. While Carter has been an integral piece of the Georgia State passing game, he lost his starting spot to WR Tailique Williams ($5,300) and was targeted just once in the Louisiana matchup last week, playing his fewest offensive snaps in a game since Week 2.
Bargain Bin – TE Ahmon Green ($4,000) Season-high 44 receiving yards with two touchdowns last week for Green. Georgia Southern allows 6.4 FPPG to opposing TE1s but did give up 17 fantasy points in their matchup with UAB tight end Bryce Dalmous.
Pivot Play – WR Robert Lewis ($5,500) Playing time hasn’t been altered at all for Lewis, just seems to be a cold streak after beginning the year on a tear with double-digit fantasy points in each of the first five games to begin the year. The drops are rearing their ugly head again, though. Lewis led the team with six drops in 2022, and now has had at least one in four of the last five games. Seven different Sun Belt receivers have scored at least 15 fantasy points against Georgia Southern this season, so you better have one in your lineup.
Best of the Rest – RB Marcus Carroll ($7,000) I would say most of my lineups will have a Grainger and Carroll stack as they’re the centerpieces of the Georgia State offense. The matchup for Carroll against GSU is just ok, as the Eagles are 53rd in rush D success rate and allowing 18 FPPG to opposing RB1s. But volume is the name of the game in fantasy football, and Carroll leads the country in rushing attempts in just seven games played. So long as Ja’Cyais Credle is out, WR Cadarrius Thompson ($3,100) is a longshot play as the third option, though has had more than 10 receiving yards in just one game all year. I’d probably just stick with one of Lewis or Williams in my lineup, though stacking both could be a low-owned GPP option.
Injury Notes – WR Ja’Cyais Credle ($3,600) Credle is not listed on the team’s depth chart this week after logging just 10 snaps against Louisiana.
Georgia Southern:
Top Play(s) – WR Khaleb Hood ($6,000) Double-digit targets in all but one game this season for Hood. The Panthers rank terribly defending the pass – 122nd in EPA per pass play, 110th in pass D success rate and allowing 17 FPPG to opposing WR1s. Totally viable to stack Hood with WR Derwin Burgess ($6,400) as well, if you can make it fit. Georgia Southern is fourth nationally in pass play percentage (64.5%) and Hood/Burgess are the clear top two options in the passing game.
Fade – RB OJ Arnold ($5,000) Arnold is a rock solid RB2 at the G5 level, but the price doesn’t warrant considering a backup running back who might get 10 touches if he’s lucky. If a winning GPP lineup has Arnold in it, the only reason that was successful is because Jalen White got hurt.
Bargain Bin – TE Jjay McAfee ($3,500) The WR3 spot behind Hood and Burgess is messy right now, so might want to look at the tight end position if looking for another Georgia Southern receiving option. Fifth on the team in targets (29) and receptions (19). Two Sun Belt tight ends have scored double-digit fantasy points on Georgia State already.
Pivot Play – RB Jalen White ($6,200) Will the real Jalen White please stand up? 125 yards in the opener against the Citadel. 164 yards on a season-best 26 rushing attempts last week against Louisiana-Monroe. Sandwiched in between that – 11, 4, 11, and 10 carries. Georgia State is a sound run defense, ranking 23rd in rush D success rate and allowing just 15.6 FPPG to RB1s. The inconsistency of White and this rushing attack can be maddening, but you see the upside he possesses if he gets enough touches.
Best of the Rest – QB Davis Brin ($6,900) We mentioned above how poorly Georgia State grades out against the pass and how frequently Georgia Southern throws the football. Because of that alone, Brin is in play. But he’s the only non-runner of the four available quarterbacks so he’s downgraded significantly from that standpoint. Very surprised to see that Georgia State has not allowed a single quarterback to score more than 20 fantasy points against them this season. That list does include Ta’Quan Roberson, Jalon Jones, Cam Fancher and Gunnar Watson…but still. WR Anthony Queeley ($4,700) doesn’t have an injury tag but has seen his playing time take a major hit in the last two weeks, playing a season-low 13 snaps against ULM and didn’t see a single target. Don’t know what’s up there. WR Dalen Cobb ($4,400) played the third most snaps of any GSU wide receiver last week, though he was targeted just three times and didn’t record a catch. The one to roster might just be Pittsburgh transfer WR Jaylon Barden ($3,400) who’s seen his playing time increase the last two weeks with 9 of his 12 targets this season coming in that span. Health has limited Barden to just four games played but seems healthy now. FWIW – Queeley and Cobb are still listed atop the depth chart.
Injury Notes – n/a
