Virginia Tech vs. NC State
Point-Spread: NC St -13.5
O/U Total: 39.5
Implied Score: NC St 26.5 – Va Tech 13
Weather: 58 degrees / 0% rain / 6 mph winds
Virginia Tech:
Top Play(s) – WR Kaleb Smith ($4,800) Without looking at prices, I would’ve sided here with one of the Virginia Tech running backs. But as a two-touchdown dog, you figure the Hokies will need to throw it. Smith continues to lead the team with 42 targets on the year, 30 of which have come in the last month. Is Smith a must-play here? Absolutely not (more on that below).
Fade – QB Grant Wells ($6,200) Very slim chance here that Wells will be one of the two quarterbacks we select for our lineups Thursday. The Wolfpack are giving up 23.5 FPPG on the year to opposing QBs but are 9th nationally in pass play success rate. NC State is also third in the nation in interceptions this season, which does not bode well for a QB like Wells who has been extremely turnover-prone the last year and a half.
Bargain Bin – TE Dae’Quan Wright ($3,000) Just about that time of the year when you start seeing some of the bad teams around college football get some underclassmen more playing time. 6-foot-4 freshman TE Dae’Quan Wright has been one of those options of the Hokies, now with 17 targets in the last three games. We know OC Tyler Bowen likes to involve his tight ends in the passing game where Nick Gallo ($3,700) and his 35 targets ranks second on the team.
Pivot Play – RB Malachi Thomas ($7,200) Tough sell to spend up for Thomas here against a defense that is stout against the run and its strength are the linebackers. Allowing just 13.2 FPPG to opposing RB1s. But the Wolfpack have been leaky of late, allowing over 200+ to Florida State and 179 yards on the ground to Syracuse, falling to 67th in rush play success rate defensively. Do I believe Virginia Tech will have much success on the ground on Thursday? Not really, but Thomas is getting double-digit carries since his return to the field and is one of the Hokies’ two best offensive players. Thomas did get seven targets two weeks ago vs. Miami in the passing game.
Best of the Rest – Da’Wain Lofton ($3,900) The sophomore is a top two receiver for the Hokies behind Smith, and has been targeted more of late with 17 of his 30 targets coming in the last three games.
Injury Notes – WR Stephen Gosnell ($3,600) HC Brent Pry said this week that Gosnell is probable with a head injury. He was suited up vs. Miami but did not play.
North Carolina State:
Top Play(s) – RB Jordan Houston ($5,400) Even if Demie Sumo-Karngbaye ends up playing, NC State will rotate its running backs, so we know 10+ carries are a near certainty for Houston on Thursday. The junior RB is also featured some in the passing game – tied for four on the team with 21 targets. Virginia Tech is allowing 18.3 FPPG to opposing RB1s in 2022 and 70th in rush play success rate.
Fade – QBs. This was a bottom-tier passing offense even when Devin Leary was healthy. Jack Chambers ($6,000) is an FCS transfer that is undersized, turnover-prone and could split time with freshman MJ Morris ($5,200) – a 4-star recruit that is deemed the future of the program. Any risk of a potential split means I’m out. The Hokies have actually been ok on the backend too, allowing just 21.3 FPPG to opposing QBs and 12th in pass play success rate. Chambers is going to end up being a popular play because of his running ability, but I don’t like reading about a potential split here and will go against the grain.
Bargain Bin – WR Keyon Lesane ($3,400) The 5-foot-11 sophomore is now second on the team in targets with 30 – 21 of which have come in the last month alone – and is second on the team in routes run.
Pivot Play – WR Thayer Thomas ($6,000) Thomas is still the clear WR1 for the Wolfpack, leading the team with 27 receptions on 44 targets. Accounts for just 19% of the target share and 12 different players have caught at least one touchdown for NC State this season. Not sure it’s worth it to spend up for Thomas with all of the uncertainty at QB.
Best of the Rest – WR Darryl Jones ($4,100) His status is directly impacted by Devin Carter’s health. The Maryland transfer played 64 of 71 offensive snaps against Syracuse in Week 6, but I believe he’s downgraded to second-string if Carter is back and healthy.
Injury Notes – RB Demie Sumo-Karngbaye ($4,700) Stay tuned to the Discord on Thursday evening for status updates on Demie Sumo. Didn’t play against Syracuse two weeks ago but had the bye week to heal up. Haven’t located a status on him as of Wednesday morning but do expect him to play. He’s NC State’s most talented player on offense. WR Devin Carter ($5,500) did not play against Florida State. TE Trent Pennix ($3,000) has not played since Week 1, but some mention of a possible return.
Louisiana vs. Southern Mississippi
Point-Spread: S-Miss -1.5
O/U Total: 42.5
Implied Score: S-Miss 22 – UL 20.5
Weather: 69 degrees / 0% rain / 5 mph winds
Louisiana:
Top Play(s) – QB Ben Wooldridge ($7,300) Why again didn’t Louisiana start this guy at the beginning of the season? 321 total yards and five touchdowns in the win over Arkansas State last week, giving Wooldridge 68 fantasy points scored in the last two games since taking over the starting job full-time. Tough matchup against Southern Miss where the Golden Eagles are allowing just 21.5 FPPG to opposing QBs and 30th in pass play success rate, but we’ll dive in below as to why he’s the easy top play for UL.
Fade – RB Chris Smith ($5,800) HC Michael Desormeaux said that Chris Smith will play on Thursday, and he is the RB1 when healthy. But this backfield is messier than when Billy Napier was around as Smith accounts for only 22% of the market share with four different running backs getting between 35-55 carries in 2022. Don’t see Louisiana gaining much traction on the ground against a USM defense that is allowing just 14.3 FPPG to opposing RBs and 23rd in success rate.
Bargain Bin – WR Dontae Fleming ($3,400) We’ll just get the WR conversation out of the way here. 15 different players caught a pass in the win over Arkansas State last week. WR Michael Jefferson ($5,100) is the clear-cut WR1 with 44 targets and 20% of the target share, but it gets extremely messy after that. Essentially the same situation we’ve had for years now with Louisiana. Fleming was the guy against Arkansas State with 6-81-2 on six targets and has now scored all three of his receiving touchdowns in the last two weeks. He’s seen an uptick in playing time coming out of the Week 6 bye.
Pivot Play – TE’s Love-volume plays, but Neal Johnson and Johnny Lumpkin have combined for five of the team’s 17 receiving touchdowns. Johnson is third on the team in both targets (21) and receptions (14).
Best of the Rest – WR Jacob Bernard ($3,000) Why Jacob Bernard was the top target against Arkansas State, I have zero clue. Not like his playing time increased, because he saw less offensive snaps than he did the prior five games. By far his best game of the year with 5-97-1 on a team-high six targets. Wouldn’t be surprised if we see Bernard take over the starting job here in the slot over Errol Rogers Jr. ($3,300) who is second on the team in targets (24) but converted that into only 12 catches.
Injury Notes – QB Chandler Fields ($6,300) Fields is healthy enough to return this week after missing the last two games, but it’s been confirmed that Wooldridge will be the starter.
Southern Miss:
Top Play(s) – RB Frank Gore Jr. ($6,800) The Cajuns have shored up their run defense since the disastrous performance against ULM in Week 4, allowing 227 yards on the ground. Opponents are averaging under three yards a carry against Louisiana the last three weeks. UL still ranks 84th in rush play success rate defensively, with four different running backs scoring 15 fantasy points or more against them in 2022. Gore Jr. might be the only true workhorse on this slate, garnering 51% of the rushing volume for the Eagles.
Fade – QB Zach Wilcke ($4,900) Non-runner for the 100th ranked passing offense in the country. We’re interested in the Southern Miss receivers here, not Wilcke.
Bargain Bin – WR Tiaquelin Mims ($3,400) The freshman slot receiver has done some things in recent weeks with 14 of his 16 targets coming in that span. This increased production has come as a result of Jakarius Caston ($3,600) being injured but reports this week have stated that Mims continues to work with the first-team offense. Caston is deemed probable by head coach Will Hall, but that doesn’t decrease our interest in Mims who reportedly hooked up with Wilcke on multiple occasions during practice again this week.
Pivot Play – RB Janari Dean ($3,000) The coaching staff is clearly making a concerted effort to get some of the younger playmakers on the field to aid the offense, including the 195-pound freshman Janari Dean who has found the end-zone in each of the last two games. Both Dean and Gore Jr. were featured in the backfield at the same time against Texas State, and that is expected to continue moving forward.
Best of the Rest – WR Jason Brownlee ($5,400) Clear-cut alpha with 33% of the team’s target share and a team-high four receiving touchdowns. For as good as the Louisiana pass defense has been, they’re allowing 18.1 FPPG to opposing WR1s this season, including 35.1 fantasy points to Luke McCaffrey earlier in the year.
Injury Notes – Jakarius Caston ($3,600) See above.
Utah vs. Washington State
Point-Spread: Utah -7.5
O/U Total: 54.5
Implied Score: Utah 31 – Wazzu 23.5
Weather: 40 degrees / 0% rain / 8 mph winds
Utah:
Top Play(s) – QB Cam Rising ($8,800) Lock it in. So very few QB options on the board that you can’t afford to not having Rising in the lineup. Because of Utah’s struggles running the football, Rising’s attempts are up to 30.7 in 2022, and has been extremely effective on the ground with all six of his rushing TDs coming in the last three games.
Fade – RB Tavion Thomas ($7,700) I have no idea what is going on here. Because of the Twitter algorithms, I do see Tavion Thomas tweeting on my timeline often and recently with cryptic messages despite not following him. HC Kyle Whittingham said this week that they have a depth chart sorted out that they feel comfortable with moving forward in the Utah backfield. Does that include Thomas? I have no idea, but he’s too expensive to gamble with here.
Bargain Bin – n/a
Pivot Play – WR DeVaughn Vele ($6,900) Everyone will be on Dalton Kincaid ($6,500) this week of the Utah pass-catchers, and for good reason, but don’t discount Vele and his 23% team target share. Against USC two weeks ago, Vele and Kincaid combined for 26 of the team’s 45 targets. Utah does not have a reliable pass-catcher beyond those two. Vele will have far lower ownership on Thursday than Kincaid, though. FWIW – Washington State is allowing 7.8 FPPG to opposing TE1s this season with just two players hitting double-digit fantasy points.
Best of the Rest – RB Micah Bernard ($6,200) Bernard stepped in against USC and rushed for 37 yards and a touchdown on 11 carries, while also adding five receptions on seven targets. Utah is still fourth in the conference in rushing, rank 17th in rush play success rate and the offensive line is 21st in line yards. Maybe not up to standard, but the Utah offensive line is not the root cause as to why running backs have failed this season. Three running backs this season have scored 20 fantasy points or more against the Washington State defense. Have to think that, unless something was corrected internally with Thomas, that Bernard is the most trustworthy option for the coaching staff moving forward.
Injury Notes – n/a
Washington State:
Top Play(s) – QB Cam Ward ($6,500) You can try and get cute with one of the cheaper, below-average quarterbacks on the slate, but I’ll ride the high floor of Cam Ward as my second QB at a very attainable pricing. Utah is allowing over 28 FPPG to opposing QB1s this season and are just 67th in pass play success rate. Not a dominant secondary by any stretch, and Ward has hit the 300+ bonus in three of the last four games.
Fade – WRs Beyond the Top 4. Now down a few receivers to injury, Washington State kept their WR rotations tight against Oregon State with the top four playing 71% or more of the offensive snaps.
Bargain Bin – WR Leyton Smithson ($3,000) De’Zhaun Stribling moved inside to slot receiver to get the 6-foot-1 Smithson in the starting lineup. The true freshman and former defensive back played 60 of the 75 offensive snaps in the Week 7 loss to Oregon State, finishing with four receptions on six targets. As stated above, Washington State really didn’t rotate receivers, sticking with the Top 4 throughout the game.
Pivot Play – WR De’Zhaun Stribling ($5,800) You’ll see the cheaper Wazzu receivers with higher ownership on Thursday, making Stribling a perfect pivot option in GPPs. The sophomore only converted on 30% of his 10 targets against Oregon State, but those 10 targets were the highest mark on the team and ran the most routes against the Beavers.
Best of the Rest – WR Robert Ferrell ($4,600) The bond between Ferrell and Ward, former teammates at Eastern Washington, is evident as Ferrell is averaging seven targets a game since entering the starting lineup in Week 4. Had a season-high 131 yards against Oregon State. WR Donovan Ollie ($4,600) is too cheap for a receiver that leads his team in receptions (33) and targets (50). RB Jaylen Jenkins ($4,800) will be the toughest decision on the slate for me. Utah is only allowing 13.2 FPPG this season to opposing RB1s, but Jenkins has now scored double-digit fantasy points in each of the last three games, and I really like his utilization in the passing game with 12 targets in that span.
Injury Notes – WR Renard Bell ($5,600) Bell is out indefinitely with an arm injury. Haven’t seen a recent update, but not expecting him back in the lineup soon from the sounds of it. Same goes for Nakia Watson ($5,100) who is expected to be out for “a long stretch” per head coach Jake Dickert.
East Carolina vs. BYU
Point-Spread: BYU -3.5
O/U Total: 63.5
Implied Score: BYU 33.5 – ECU 30
Weather: 48 degrees / 0% rain / 4 mph winds
East Carolina:
Top Play(s) – WR Isaiah Winstead ($7,000) Talk about let-down spot for ECU coming off their biggest win of the season, hitting the road taking on a BYU squad after their worst performance of the year. In a spot like this, give me the most consistent ECU player this season in Winstead. Played second fiddle to C.J. Johnson last week, but still managed 7-89-0 on seven targets, and is still the CLEAR leader at 29.8% target share. Last Saturday was Winstead’s lowest output since Week 2 so I’m not worried at all about his production.
Fade – WR3. Don’t even know exactly who it is on this team between Jsi Hatfield, Jaylen Johnson or mystery option No. 3. But don’t think it matters to us. Between Winstead, C.J. Johnson and Ryan Jones, that trio combines for 62% of the team’s target share. FWIW – Jaylen Johnson did return from injury last week but played just 14 snaps. Hatfield was the clear WR3, playing 50 of 70 offensive snaps.
Bargain Bin – n/a.
Pivot Play – TE Ryan Jones ($5,900) $5.9k is entirely too expensive for a tight end normally, but Jones is the clear-cut third option in the passing game behind Winstead and Johnson. BYU is allowing 13.0 FPPG to opposing TE1s this season which is the second-highest mark in the country. Five different tight ends have scored double-digit fantasy points against the Cougars which is more than any team in the nation.
Best of the Rest – QB Holton Ahlers ($7,500) Really no decision here when it comes to the QBs. Put Holton Ahlers in your lineup and figure out the rest. You’re not playing anyone from the second game on the slate. Unless BYU is just overly motivated defensively on Friday, this matchup bodes well for a big Ahlers performance. BYU is 110th in pass play success rate, is allowing 28.5 FPPG to opposing QB1s and the game script is in his favor as a 3.5-point dog. Similar argument with Keaton Mitchell ($6,800). Who else are you realistically going to play at RB on the slate? BYU is even worst at defending the run, giving up 19.0 FPPG to RB1s and 121st in rush play success rate. Very curious to see the ownership of C.J. Johnson ($6,100) after his 11-140-1 performance on 12 targets vs. UCF. Converting on an insane 82% of his targets, but a distant second behind Winstead in that category. Not out of the realm of possibilities of playing both in your lineup.
Injury Notes – n/a
BYU:
Top Play(s) – QB Jaren Hall ($8,000) Should see 100% ownership. Only way he’s not in the winning lineup is due to injury. East Carolina is far worse against the pass, allowing 27.3 FPPG to opposing QBs and 118th in pass play success rate.
Fade – RBs. Game script obviously played a role vs. Liberty, but the BYU running game is a mess right now. 81st nationally in yards per game on the ground and facing an ECU defense that is 27th in rush play success rate, giving up only 14.7 FPPG to opposing RBs. Lopini Katoa and Miles Davis are expected to share the workload with Chris Brooks unavailable. BYU’s offensive line deserves considerable blame as well, ranking 98th in line yards and 121st in stuff rate.
Bargain Bin – WR Brayden Cosper ($3,900) With Epps out, I believe it would be Cosper that gets the starting nod with 59.2% of his offensive snaps coming in the slot. Unless Gunner Romney plays and they shift Nacua inside which has happened in the past. With Epps not in the starting lineup, Cosper was somewhat productive with 20 of his 24 targets coming in the first five weeks. Significant drop off with Epps in the lineup.
Pivot Play – WR Keanu Hill ($5,000) Second on the team in targets (33), first in routes run and leads the team at 17.9 yards per catch. Less than five yards receiving in two of the last three games, so can’t say I’d be confident in rostering him. And would be downgraded further if Romney plays. Hill is on the field plenty, though.
Best of the Rest – WR Puka Nacua ($5,800) Similar to Jaren Hall, just set it and forget it with Nacua at his pricing. 11 targets in each of the last two games, topping 100 yards against Arkansas and Liberty. Nacua might also be BYU’s best option gaining yards on the ground, already with more carries this season than he did all of 2021.
Injury Notes – RB Chris Brooks ($6,500) OC Aaron Roderick confirmed that Brooks will be unavailable on Friday. WR Kody Epps ($4,100) suffered a wrist injury and may be gone for the year. He’s also confirmed out on Friday. HC Kilani Sitake said that he’s hopeful WR Gunner Romney ($5,400) will be available.
Louisiana Tech vs. Florida International
Point-Spread: La Tech -7
O/U Total: 57.5
Implied Score: La Tech 32.5 – FIU 25
Weather: 76 degrees / 24% rain / 9 mph winds
Louisiana Tech:
Top Play(s) – WR Tre Harris ($5,300) Those of you that have followed along with us on the CFF journey this season know the infatuation we have for Tre Harris. Doesn’t matter who the quarterback has been, Harris now has a receiving touchdown in five of the last season games. Season-high 15 targets on Saturday, finishing with three TDs. Team leader in targets, receptions, touchdowns, and routes run.
Fade – QBs. Matthew Downing is out for the year. HC Sonny Cumbie said that Parker McNeil, Landry Lyddy and Jack Turner will all take first team reps this week. I have an opinion of who will start (Lyddy) but not worth bothering to keep up with the news here or risk a possible zero. FIU is 100th in pass play success rate defensively and giving up just 23.5 FPPG to opposing QBs – mostly because teams haven’t needed to pass against the Panthers this season.
Bargain Bin – RB Marquis Crosby ($3,000) Crosby will likely see the highest ownership on the slate outside of the quarterbacks. Louisiana Tech is a pass-first offense, running the ball just 42.3% of the time, but Crosby has begun to separate himself a bit from the pack, averaging over five yards a carry the last three weeks. Would imagine La Tech has some success running on FIU where the Panthers are 103rd in rush play success rate and giving up 20.1 FPPG to opposing RB1s.
Pivot Play – WR Smoke Harris ($6,200) Everything is around the LOS for Harris, who is averaging 11.7 yards per catch with an aDOT of only 4.6. But there is no target volume shortage, hitting double-digits in three of the last four games.
Best of the Rest – WR Cyrus Allen ($3,000) Still believe Allen is a name to know down the road, but his production hasn’t been there since the opener vs. Missouri. Just 18 targets on the season but did play 63 of 82 offensive snaps against Rice this past Saturday. We didn’t see any rotations for La Tech at receiver beyond the top three of Harris, Harris and Allen. TE Nate Jones ($3,000) played 75 of the 82 offensive snaps vs. Rich in place of the injured Griffin Hebert, converting on both of his targets with a touchdown.
Injury Notes – QB Matthew Downing ($5,200) Downing is out for the season. TE Griffin Hebert ($4,700) did not play against Rice. Will have to dig pregame to see if he’s playing or not. Don’t have a status update as of Wednesday.
Florida International:
Top Play(s) – WR Tyrese Chambers ($6,400) A fully-healthy Tyrese Chambers is one of the best WRs at the G5 level, and someone that should’ve transferred this offseason to a team with a formidable quarterback that could get him the ball consistently. Averaging 8.8 targets per game, Chambers faces a Louisiana Tech defense that has allowed the 14th most fantasy points to WR1s this season at 21.7 FPPG.
Fade – QB Grayson James ($5,900) I would not risk starting a quarterback outside of Holton Ahlers / Jaren Hall, but I think you could at least make a case for James. A former Elite 11 recruit with P5 offers, James has performed well against bottom-feeders, averaging 28.4 FPPG against Charlotte, New Mexico State and Bryant. You risk a complete dud if Louisiana Tech’s defense provides any sort of resistance, but the Bulldogs haven’t done that all year, allowing 39.3 PPG.
Bargain Bin – n/a
Pivot Play – RB Lexington Joseph ($5,200) Joseph hasn’t gotten much of a chance to run the football this season with FIU trailing most games, but did against Charlotte last week, finishing with 72 yards and two scores on 17 carries. Probably won’t see that many opportunities this week as a touchdown underdog, but the matchup is favorable with a Louisiana Tech defense that is dead last in the conference against the run. The Bulldogs are 130th out of 131 teams in rush play success rate and 124th in explosiveness allowed. Joseph would be my third RB option behind Keaton Mitchell and Marquis Crosby.
Best of the Rest – WR Kris Mitchell ($4,600) 1/3rd of Mitchell’s targets this season came last week against Charlotte, finishing with 9-93-1 on 11 targets. Third on the team in targets (30) in 2022 and second in routes run behind Chambers. WR Jalen Bracey ($4,800) is second in targets (38) and receptions (26), playing 98.8% of his snaps in the slot. Bracey is FIU’s possession receiver, averaging 7.5 YPC and an aDOT of just 4.7 on the year.
Injury Notes – n/a
