Ball State @ Akron
Point-Spread: Ball St -20
O/U Total: 58
Weather: 38 degrees / 3% rain / 9 mph winds
Ball State:
How does Ball State have a two-game losing streak to Akron – a team that has won a grand total of three games in the last three seasons. I know the Cardinals are a 20-point favorite and that doesn’t mean the best game script for QB1 in our hearts Drew Plitt, but this Akron secondary is dreadful. 82nd in Pass Play Success Rate, 107th in Pass Play Explosiveness and have given up 30 fantasy points on four different occasions this season to opposing QBs. Those quarterbacks? A.J. Mayer, Justin Lynch, Bo Nix and Kyle Vantrease. Projections don’t love Plitt at just 18.3 fantasy points, but I’d put him as one of the safer options on the slate with nine of his 11 passing touchdowns coming in the last four games. His play has been much better since entering MAC play.
Ball State boasts the best WR corps in the conference with Justin Hall, Yo’Heinz Tyler and former Cincinnati transfer Jayshon Jackson who account for over 67 percent of the team’s receiving production on the year. We know what to expect out of Hall at this point given his five seasons of elite fantasy production, and Ball State is utilizing him in the exact same way as previous years both as a receiver and runner. After a slow start to the year, Tyler is trending upwards of late with at least five receptions in each of the last four games and all four of his TDs in that span. Jackson was an incredible find for this Ball State staff in the transfer portal, sitting second on the team with 36 receptions on 56 targets. His production really hasn’t wavered with Tyler starting to emerge, as he led the team with 8-121-1 on 11 targets against Miami (Ohio).
True freshman Carson Steele is going to be a popular play on Tuesday, sitting at just $6,100 and projected at over 15 fantasy points. Akron can’t stop the run either, allowing 18.7 FPPG to opposing RB1s and are 128th in Rush Play Success Rate defensively. The Zips have allowed over 200 rushing yards in four out of the last five games. While we’ve seen Ball State have a bell-cow in year’s past, Steele will share the load with backup Will Jones who has been on the field just as much over the last two games. Slight edge to Jones in the passing game with eight receptions on nine targets.
Akron:
If Akron has a competent offensive line that could give their quarterback more than half a second to throw the ball, Tuesday night’s starter would likely be Zach Gibson. Unfortunately, the Zips can’t pass protect worth a damn, having given up 46 sacks now on the season already, 17 more (!) than the next closest team in the MAC. Gibson has easily been the team’s best QB this season, completing nearly 70 percent of his passes with six touchdowns and zero interceptions, but his lack of mobility behind this offensive line is a tough predicament. Gibson was replaced against Buffalo in favor of the more mobile option in D.J. Irons who leads the team with 300 rushing yards and two touchdowns. Another situation that we’ll need to wait until pregame to find out who the starter will be, but tea leaves seem to point towards Irons. At $5k, I think you can make the argument for Irons here given his ability to make a play out of nothing with his legs and Ball State is a below-average pass defense, ranking 10th in the MAC and 127th in Pass Play Success Rate. We just need confirmation that Irons is the guy.
We’ve seen both Jonzell Norrils and Blake Hester be effective at times with multiple 100-yard rushing performances this season, but when both are healthy, Norrils looks to be the top option. Norrils rushed for 155 yards against Buffalo in Week 8, but 74 of those yards came on one play. As poorly as the Akron offensive line is in pass pro, they grade out fairly well as a run blocking group, ranking 23rd in Line Yards, 33rd in Stuff Rate and 88th in Rush Play Success Rate. Still don’t think this is a matchup where I’ll screw around with the Akron backfield as Ball State has allowed under four yards a carry in each of the last four games, including Western Michigan and Army who are no slouches at running the football. Surprised Michigan State transfer Anthony Williams hasn’t had more of an impact this season, averaging just seven carries per game and under four yards per attempt.
FR Konata Mumpfield has been a pleasant surprise this season for someone that was on zero radars heading into 2021, leading the team with 41 receptions and six touchdowns on 62 targets. Was on a span of five straight games of at least one TD, but hasn’t found the end-zone in the last two weeks. Still targeted 22 times in that span so whichever QB is under center has been looking for Mumpfield often. Michael Mathison is a close second with 37-406-2 on 55 targets as the duo accounts for 55 percent of the team target share. aDOT of just 8.1 on the season so much of his targets come close to the LOS. I wouldn’t risk rostering any other Akron receiver but senior Andre Williams is still around with seven targets and a TD in the last two games. Williams does have a six-touchdown season on his resume.
Miami (OH) @ Ohio
Point-Spread: Mia -7.5
O/U Total: 52.5
Weather: 39 degrees / 3% rain / 2 mph winds
Miami (OH):
After missing the previous two and a half games, Brett Gabbert looked as if he didn’t miss a beat against Ball State on the road, completing 20-of-24 passes for 207 yards and two touchdowns. The Bobcats don’t do any one thing well on defense, but are marginally better at defending the pass this season, ranking fourth in the MAC giving up just 202.5 YPG through the air. That’s due in part to the lack of necessity for opponents to put the ball in the air because of the dreadful run defense that is 125th nationally. When opposing QBs do throw against the Bobcats, they’re completing nearly 70 percent of their passes as Ohio is 125th in Pass Play Success Rate.
The RedHawks backfield is a mess to figure out, with as many as five different running backs in line for carries. Will have to check on the status of Jaylon Bester who has been in and out of the lineup this season due to injury, something that has hampered him the last year and a half, as he had just one carry in Week 8. Still listed as the starter on the game-week depth chart but don’t think that means a ton at this point in the season. If Bester is out, we saw a split backfield against Ball State with Tyre Shelton and Kansas State transfer Keyon Mozee combining for 25 of the 32 carries that went to Miami running backs, with Shelton having the significant edge in plays logged on the field. Shelton is similar to Bester in that he’s also dealt with injuries that last 18 months or so, but is a talented player that rushed for 500 yards as a true FR in 2019. Third-stringer Kevin Davis hasn’t seen as many carries as either Mozee/Shelton, but was second in snaps in Week 8 among Miami RBs, and is averaging over seven yards a carry on the season. Davis looks to be the team’s primary third-down back with 13 receptions on 15 targets which leads the team at the position. The RedHawks are just 79th in Line Yards and 118th in Rush Play Success Rate this season, but those numbers will undoubtedly improve after facing this Ohio run defense.
Jack Sorenson Szn is in full effect. Three-straight 100-yard receiving performances and was absolutely dominant in Week 8, hauling in eight receptions on eight targets and forced the Ball State coaching staff to bench the cornerback defending him in the second half. His ownership will be sky-high in cash and GPP, but I’m not sure how we can fade him at this point, particularly because Miami doesn’t have the dominant run game that will eliminate Sorenson from the game plan. Former Penn State transfer and WR2 Mac Hippenhammer is no slouch either with 29-497-1 on the year, averaging over 17 YPC. For the season, those two combine for 52 percent of the team target share. No other receiver had more than one target against Ball State, and that’s been fairly consistent for much of the season. Jalen Walker is the only other contributing WR with 15-129-1 on 27 targets. Just twice has Walker had more than three targets in a game this season. Three of tight end Andrew Homer’s four receiving touchdowns this season have come in the last three games – he’s a mismatch in the red-zone at 6-foot-6.
Ohio:
Who gets the nod at quarterback? Doesn’t sound like a starter will be announced officially so we’ll need to monitor pregame warmups to see who is running with the 1s. Listening to interim head coach Tim Albin’s press conference, he did mention that if the game were to happen today, it would be Kurtis Rourke getting the nod coming off his best performance of the season, completing 31-of-38 passes for 308 yards to go along with 49 rushing yards and two scores on the ground in a narrow to defeat against Kent State. Armani Rogers did start for the third-straight game, but was ineffective through the first couple series and the staff decided to turn it over to Rourke for a change of pace. Very good chance we see the same scenario play out this week, just reverse roles if Rourke is ineffective early as Albin clearly indicated they’ll ride the hot hand no matter who it is.
The RedHawks are second in the MAC in scoring defense so this probably isn’t a great matchup for either quarterback, but this looks like a Rourke game to me. While Rogers can be a gamer-breaker with his legs, Miami (OH) has been dominant in MAC play defending the run, allowing just 2.3 YPC in the last four games while their secondary ranks 112th in Pass Play Success Rate. Both Akron and Ball State have completed over 60 percent of their passes in recent weeks against the RedHawks with five combined passing scores.
In the weekly presser, Albin also mentioned that Ohio will continue to rotate their running backs between O’Shaan Allison and De’Montre Tuggle, including seeing both on the field at the same time. Snap counts look like a 60-40 split in favor of Allison, but its been Tuggle who’s far more effective, now with a rushing touchdown in each of the last four games. Allison is the superior pass-catcher of the two, including converting on all seven of his targets last time out against the Flashes. If Miami (OH) continues to stuff the run at the rate we’ve seen the last month, we could see Allison featured more in this matchup. All 15 of his targets this season have come when Rourke’s been the primary QB.
As far as the Ohio receivers, it’s both simple and complicated at the same time. I’ll explain. If we get a minor surprise and Rogers gets the nod, you don’t want to roster a single Ohio pass-catcher. If we get Rourke as expected, then it gets interesting because this team does not have a clear-cut WR1. Snap counts against Kent State were heavily in favor of the three listed starters on the team depth chart this week, so I imagine will continue to see the trio of Cameron Odom, Isiah Cox and Tyler Walton primarily. Cox, the projected WR1 coming into the season, has only played in five games but 10 of his 15 total targets have come in the last two games, including a season-high 7-73-0 in Week 8. Walton is probably the team’s most talented wideout and does lead the team in total targets (32), but his production has taken a hit the last month with Cox back in the line. Just seven receptions in the last four weeks. Odom has been with the Bobcats since 2017 and does have 91 career receptions, but hasn’t found the end-zone in three years! Maybe he’s due? Ohio has some other rotational receivers like Chase Cokely and James Bostic who will see playing time, but the only other pass-catcher worthy of a roster spot potentially is tight end Ryan Luehrman who has shown to be a red-zone option in the past with seven receiving TDs in the last two seasons.
Eastern Michigan @ Toledo
Point-Spread: Tol -9
O/U Total: 53
Weather: 39 degrees / 2% rain / 10 mph winds
Eastern Michigan:
I know Toledo has the top scoring defense in the MAC, but Ben Bryant does feel slightly underpriced here to me at $6,500 for a quarterback that is averaging 281 passing yards per game with 10 touchdowns in six starts. The Rockets’ pass defense is legitimate though, allowing just 15.8 FPPG to opposing QBs on the season – ninth-best mark in the country – and shut out Western Michigan’s Kaleb Eleby who failed to throw a passing touchdown for just the second time this year. Yet another team with two receivers dominating the target share as Hassan Beydoun and Dylan Drummond account for 52 percent of the team targets. The 5-foot-8 Beydoun doesn’t find the end-zone as often, and his aDOT of just 7.5 is why he’s averaging just 10.2 yards per catch, but is a PPR monster of late with 37 of his 51 catches coming in the last four games. Drummond is having a bounce-back season in 2021 with four TD receptions in the last five weeks, and at least five receptions in each of the last six games. Probably a situation where I lean Beydoun on DK and Drummond on FD because of the scoring settings. Freshman Zach Westmoreland starts opposite Drummond on the outside. Three-way split at tight end with Gunnar Oakes, Thomas Odukoya and Bryson Cannon in Week 8 against Bowling Green as all three found the end-zone in the blowout victory. Cannon is the clear TE1 here, though, sitting third on the team on targets (23) with three TDs in the last four games. Michael Mayer and Trey McBride are elite fantasy tight ends, but they did find some success against this Toledo defense with 42 combined fantasy points.
We haven’t had an Eastern Michigan running back get 10 carries in a game since Week 5. Against NIU, Miami (OH) and Ball State, EMU was held to under 51 rushing yards and are averaging just 3.3 YPC on the year. This is not the matchup to roster an Eagles running back as Toledo is 21st in Defensive Rush Play Success Rate and fourth in the MAC in run defense. We’ll see a split backfield between Jawon Hamilton, Darius Boone Jr. and Samson Evans with no distinguishable edge to any of the three runners.
Toledo:
Bryant Koback loves playing Eastern Michigan. 259 yards and two touchdowns on 32 carries vs. the Eagles back in 2019, and 149 yards and a TD on 20 carries last season. EMU is better at defending the run this season, sitting sixth in the conference, but are still allowing 4.75 YPC and 101st in Rush Play Success Rate nationally. Koback did leave the game briefly against Western Michigan in with an injury, and I’m not sure he’s 100 percent, but did return that game to top 100 yards on 17 carries which led the team. Averaging 17.5 touches per game in 2021, the lack of trustworthy RBs on this slate, and his history of success against EMU, I think Koback is close to a must-start. Unlike prior seasons with Shakif Seymour as the primary backup, Toledo doesn’t have a sure-fire RB2 this season with Jaquez Stuart and Micah Kelly splitting reps.
Someone want to help me understand why Dequan Finn is the highest-priced QB on this slate? Decent projection at 23 fantasy points as Finn is a dynamic athlete that now leads the team with six rushing scores, but is erratic with his passes, completing just 50 percent of his throws on the year. Maybe Finn gets there on the ground from a fantasy standpoint, but I don’t foresee success throwing the ball against the second-best pass efficiency defense in the MAC. The Eagles are allowing just 17.0 FPPG to opposing QBs this season. Simply put, I don’t believe it’s worth it spending up for Finn this week given his salary and the amount of talent available to us at WR.
Similar situation to last year with regards to the Toledo receivers as nobody accounts for more than 19 percent of the team target share. Sophomore Devin Maddox has been the most effective of the bunch with a team-high three receiving touchdowns, but his production has tailed off the last two weeks. If not Maddox, I’ll go against the projections for Isaiah Winstead of the remaining Toledo receivers with 24 targets coming in the last four games. Snap counts are sporadic, but he’s seeing the football more than both Bryce Mitchell (15 targets) and Danzel McKinley-Lewis (5 targets) in that same span.
Become a member of theCFFsite and gain access to all exclusive DFS content, which includes all write-ups and Weekly Player Rankings/Projections. Click here for details.