Nebraska @ Illinois
Point-Spread: Neb -7
O/U Total: 55
Weather: 90 degrees / 7% rain / 8 mph winds
Nebraska:
Adrian Martinez will be a popular choice via any optimizers out there as the lowest-priced QB of the Big 4 in this slate, and the floor he brings to the table with his rushing ability. At a projected 25.9 fantasy points, that’s just 0.06 points less than Chevan Cordeiro’s for $700 cheaper. Martinez’ rushing ability will likely be counted on, facing the worst rush defense in the Big Ten last season as the Illini allowed over 230 yards per contest. Martinez topped double-digit carries in six of the seven games played last season. High-floor, low-ceiling given the 55 o/u total being the lowest of the three-game slate.
Running back will be a major storyline in warmups with no starter being named to this point. All indications leading up to this week appeared to be that true FR Gabe Ervin would be the guy on Saturday, but the Athletic’s Mitch Sherman is now hinting that second-year back Sevion Morrison might be the likeliest candidate to get the first carry vs. the Illini. Regardless of the starter, the situation has been the same for the entirety of the offseason – whoever amongst the three between Ervin, Morrison, or USC transfer Markese Stepp has the hot hand will get the most opportunities. While Illinois’ suspect run defense is appealing, I’m fading this group until we have more clarity. Morrison’s recent surge towards the starting job, and his min salary, make him the most tempting choice.
Starting receivers should be set for Nebraska with Samori Toure, Omar Manning and Oliver Martin. Toure remains our prediction to lead the Cornhuskers in receptions for 2021, and is a strong play at $4,900 in DK’s PPR setting. One interesting note per Sherman, Manning was the only starting receiver to not be made available for media interviews this summer. Does that have an impact on his playing status? Martin is the highest priced of the three which probably takes him out of the running as a playable option unless Manning doesn’t sees limited reps for whatever reason.
Austin Allen will start at tight end and leads all returning Nebraska pass-catchers with a 12.4 percent target share. Backup Travis Vokolek is nursing an injury currently, so it’s feasible Allen sees extended time on Saturday.
Illinois:
Quick and painless – Brandon Peters gets little to no justification for being a viable option in this slate. His passing leaves much to be desired, completing just 49 percent of his throws. The only way in which Peters can match/surpass value this week is with his legs, where new OC Tony Petersen has utilized his QBs in the past, averaging 105 carries over the last three seasons as a play-caller.
At running back, we discussed this offseason how Petersen has utilized both a workhorse and committee approach in the backfield over the years. Indications appear to be that this will lean more towards the committee side as the Illini coaching staff love their depth behind starter-in-name Chase Brown. Backups Chase Hayden and Reggie Love have garnered heavy praise this fall from the staff, and will see the field on Saturday. Nebraska allowed almost 170 yards per game on the ground in 2020 and ranks 89th in returning defensive production. Brown is a viable option but not a lock for the slate.
No official depth chart release for Illinois, but 247 is signaling that the top three receivers for Saturday will be Brian Hightower, Donny Navarro and converted quarterback Isaiah Williams. If taking a chance on one, give me Hightower with his big-play ability, averaging a team-high 19.0 YPC (min. 10 targets) and 13.0 aDOT. One long touchdown pays off his salary. Jafar Armstrong will garner some ownership given his versatility as both a runner and receiver, along with his min salary, but I don’t have a grasp as to how Illinois will apply him Saturday. Min salary dart throws did not work out well last season for me personally, so I’m steering clear.
Petersen said the top three at TE in order are – Luke Ford, Daniel Barker and Tip Reiman. How they’ll be used, I have no idea. Petersen has rarely included the tight end in his schemes, while Bret Bielema loves them. Best to avoid for now, but that seems to be the pecking order.
Connecticut @ Fresno State
Point-Spread: Fresno -27.5
O/U Total: 63
Weather: 105 degrees / 0% rain / 7 mph winds
Connecticut:
Kevin Mensah is tremendously underpriced at $4,200 as UConn’s best player and a two-time 1,000-yard rusher. Fresno State ranks 21st in returning defensive production but has overhauled their defensive personnel after ranking 106th in rushing yards allowed last season, giving up over 213 YPG. Mensah averaged over 18 carries per game between 2018-19, and it’s not as though UConn was winning many games those years either, so game script here really isn’t much of a factor for me.
Connecticut lists two starters at running back with sophomore Nathan Carter also in the starting lineup. Carter was a player making waves as a true freshman in the spring last season before the season was shut down, and UConn’s offense typically has involved multiple backs with the RB2 featured more in a pass-catching role, combining for 72 receptions between 2018-19.
As a 27.5-point dog, UConn figures to throw more than usual Saturday, but I don’t have the slightest clue as to who will be doing the throwing between Steven Krajewski or Jack Zergiotis. The latter figures to see the first series of the game, but strong likelihood we see both play. Hard pass here.
If looking for a run-back candidate, sophomore receiver Cameron Ross is the strongest choice as the clear-cut WR1. Ross accounted for 24.9 percent of the target share back in 2019 as a true FR, tallying 60-722-4 on 91 targets in just 11 games…all with terrible QB play. How much rust will there be after not playing last season? Heron Maurisseau is listed as the other starter – WR2s in this offense average just four targets a game over the last two seasons.
TE Jay Rose figures to be the secondary option in the passing game, posting 27-261-2 on 39 targets.
Fresno State:
Fresno State has the highest implied total of the slate, is the fastest-paced offense and averaged the most passing yards per game in 2020 of any team on the slate. If playing Jake Haener, I’d probably prefer to stack with WR1 Jalen Cropper, but it’s not a necessity. Haener scored 30 or more fantasy points in five of the six games played last season so the consistency was there. With Cropper, the variability with his performances last year gives me caution. The 50-point performance vs. Utah State last season is an easy sell for why Cropper should be in your lineups, and he was targeted 12 or more times in each of his final three games. Cropper was targeted just 16 times, though, in the first three weeks and Fresno State is expected to use as many as eight different receivers in 2021 with their increased depth.
Ronnie Rivers is probably a lock here as our highest-projected running back of the slate with his rushing and pass-catching abilities. Only concern is Fresno State getting a massive first-half lead and sitting Rivers for an extended period. While DeBoer is known to be aggressive with playing his starters throughout the entirety of games regardless of the lead, his preferred choice over the years is to use multiple running backs. And Fresno State has a good backup option in senior Jordan Mims who is reportedly in the best shape of his career. I would rather play Mensah for $500 less but wouldn’t shock me in the slightest to see Mims hit paydirt Saturday. My suggestion with lineup construction, only play Rivers/Mims together if you plan to fade Haener.
I’ve seen Keric Wheatfall being mentioned as a popular pivot if straying away from Cropper in the slate and would caution against that for now. I’ll be watching intently during warmups as to which receiver will be joining Cropper and Josh Kelly amongst the starters pregame. While listed as a co-starter along with Washington transfer Ty Jones, Fresno’s 247 beat writer reported that it was Jones running in the first team during practices. Remember – it was just a week ago that Wheatfall was wearing a yellow jersey during practices, signifying he hadn’t been cleared for full contact in practices. Something to monitor pregame.
Sophomore Josh Kelly was second on the team in targets (43) last year behind Cropper and had a very strong offseason from all accounts. His 14.3 aDOT was significantly higher than Cropper and averaged more YPC (15.0). Clear-cut WR2 in my eyes. DeBoer loves tight end usage, but injuries have limited this group. Last year’s opening day starter, Juan Rodriguez, is now healthy and would be the longshot punt play. DeBoer’s TE1 averages 34 receptions per season over the last seven years.
Hawaii @ UCLA
Point-Spread: UCLA -17.5
O/U Total: 68.5
Weather: 95 degrees / 0% rain / 8 mph winds
Hawaii:
The Rainbow Warriors should be able to put up some points on Saturday with an implied team total of 25, facing a UCLA defense that ranks 68th in defensive SP+ per ESPN’s Bill Connelly. Hybrid running back Calvin Turner will be the centerpiece of the Hawaii offense in 2021 and is probably underpriced given how much he touches the football – second on the team in receptions, targets and rushing attempts last year. While a constant factor in the passing game, Turner’s upside will be dependent on his effectiveness running against a UCLA defense that ranked 30th in the country, allowing just 3.6 YPA, and does return 88 percent of its defensive production. Our projections have Turner second among Week 0 RBs, but given salaries, I’d pit him third after Rivers/Brittain Brown.
Dae Dae Hunter is the starter at the conventional RB spot on the depth chart, but the RB1 averaged just 10 carries per game in Todd Graham’s offense in 2020. Given the likely poor game script, combined with the likely distribution of carries between three different players, Hunter looks to be an easy fade this week.
QB1 Chevan Cordeiro will likely sit fourth in ownership this week amongst the primary options in the slate and presents us with a relatively high floor given his rushing usage having topped double-digit carries in all but two games last season. While the Bruins were strong against the run in 2020, they struggled defending the pass, ranking 114th in the country, giving up 274 yards per game. Kedon Slovis, Tyler Shough and Sam Noyer all topped 30 fantasy points vs. UCLA.
Former 1,000-yard receiver Jared Smart projects as the WR1 and could see an increased role given Hawaii loses their WR2-3 from last season. His aDOT dropped dramatically due to the coaching change, averaging just 8.0 yards per target and an 8.9 YPC average. There are better options on the slate with lower salaries. Nick Mardner will start opposite Smart and is a massive target at 6-foot-6. Most of Mardner’s production last year came in one game vs. New Mexico, posting 6-147-1. If a third receiver sees extended playing time, Zion Bowens or former Rice transfer Aaron Cephus would be the likeliest candidates. Bowens was an opening day starter a year ago, though his impact was only felt vs. New Mexico where both of his receptions that day went for touchdowns. Cephus offers another taller option at 6-foot-4 and had 65 career receptions in two years at Rice, but has done nothing with his career since.
UCLA:
Highest total on the slate means we will have quite a bit of exposure to UCLA on Saturday, but which positions are we seeking to target most? Running back Brittain Brown will be arguably the most-owned player on the slate, facing a Hawaii defense that ranked 105th in the country at defending the run and brings back just 81 percent of their defensive production. The Bruins also bring back four starters along an offensive line that ranked 5th in the Pac-12 in run blocking and 39th nationally in line yards created. Assuming Brown hits the 22 carries per average that Demetric Felton had last year, the 100-yard rushing bonus seems all but a lock on the surface.
The pertinent question is the division of carries between Brown and Michigan transfer Zach Charbonnet who impressed in fall camp from all accounts. Reports over the last few weeks had mentioned that both players were splitting reps with the first-team offense, though as of this past week, it was only Brown running with the starters. Given Kelly’s nature of riding his RB1 20+ times a game, I’ll likely fade Charbonnet this week, but will be looking for any clues as to if we could possibly see a timeshare in the UCLA backfield later on this season.
When on the field, Dorian Thompson-Robinson was exceptional from a fantasy standpoint last season, accounting for 28 points scored in all four contests, including a 50-burger in the opener vs. Colorado. Biggest concern here is UCLA jumping out to an early lead via rushing TDs, limiting DTR’s scoring ability. In the Bruins’ lone blowout victory last season against California, DTR threw just 26 passes, yet still accounted for four touchdowns in the win. Our projections have Thompson-Robinson as the highest-projected player of the slate, and is rosterable alongside Brittain Brown if you so choose.
UCLA pass-catchers are fairly straight-forward with receiver Kyle Philips and Greg Dulcich who accounted for 52 percent of the target share last season. Dulcich gets the nod of the two for me with the discounted salary and his aDOT of 15.5 which helped him lead the team in touchdowns with five. Texas A&M transfer Kam Brown should be the third option with last year’s starter Chase Cota just returning from injury.
UTEP @ New Mexico State
Point-Spread: UTEP -10
O/U Total: 59
Weather: 95 degrees / 15% rain / 7 mph winds
UTEP:
Won’t do a deep dive on the UTEP running backs as Deion Hankins is the lock of the two-game slate facing a New Mexico State defense likely will be one of the worst in the country by season’s end. The former high 3-star prospect led the Miners with 592 rushing yards and nine TDs on 121 carries (4.89 YPA) and will be the centerpiece of the UTEP offense in 2021. Hankins offers little as a receiver – just one reception LY – but those touches could increase with new OC Dave Warner who comes over previously from Michigan State. Senior Quardraiz Wadley is back in the fold after playing in just one game due to injury, and could dip into Hankins’ workload as he’s seen success in the past, rushing for 627 yards back in 2018. RB1s under Warner average 191 carries per season over the last six years which is a significant bump up from what we’ve seen under HC Dana Dimel.
Starting QB Gavin Hardison is the surest bet aside from Nick Starkel among the QBs in this two-game teaser, but failed to top 17 fantasy points once all season last year. This is not a slate in which you need to use two QBs, but Hardison would be the choice by default.
Shame the UTEP passing game has been so anemic as they have two talented receivers in Jacob Cowing and Justin Garrett who accounted for 59 percent of the target share in 2020. Cowing led the way with 41 catches on 75 targets and his aDOT of 17.3 was near the tops on the team despite playing mostly in the slot. Garrett was more efficient, converting on 67 percent of his targets and his 13.2 yards per catch was very impressive despite an aDOT of just 12.4. Both receivers are in play despite our limited interest in Hardison. Walter Dawn appears to be the third option, accounting for 20 receptions last year, though the change in OC may lead to more two-receiver sets that feature more of starting tight end Trent Thompson. Neither player should garner much consideration on Saturday.
New Mexico State:
While my distaste for New Mexico State is still fresh for them losing me money vs. Tarleton State back in the spring, I think there could be some value here given the possible game script as a 10-point dog. The Aggies under HC Doug Martin have traditionally been one of the most pass-happy teams in the country, averaging over 40 attempts per game between 2017-19. The issue is that Martin has not confirmed a starting QB for Saturday with Jonah Johnson and Weston Eget labeled with the dreaded OR on the depth chart. Recent reports indicate Johnson taking most of the first-team reps in practice leading up to the opener, but the leash will be short. Passing volume will make Johnson an intriguing lineup candidate, particularly with his added abilities on the ground where he ran the ball 11 times in two games with two rushing TDs vs. Dixie State.
Seems like the Aggies will feature a similar approach to years past with using two running backs on a frequent basis with former Michigan transfer O’Maury Samuels and redshirt freshman Juwuan Price. Samuels, a former 4-star recruit, sat out the two games in the spring, but was consistently mentioned as their best player in spring ball in 2020 before the season shut down and does sit on the top line of the depth chart. NMSU ran the ball well vs. FCS competition, averaging over six yards a carry, but UTEP brings back 85 percent of their returning production on defense and was 39th nationally in run defense. If NMSU doesn’t find success on the ground, RBs have often been utilized in the passing game, averaging close to 50 receptions per season between the RB1-2.
If rostering NMSU players, receiver is where we will have the most exposure given the price-points of starters Jared Wyatt, Missouri transfer Dominic Gicinto and Isaiah Garcia-Castaneda – all of whom are $3,500 or lower on DK. Garcia-Castaneda was second on the team in targets during the spring (10) with five receptions and was listed as a clear-cut starter, along with Gicinto who projects to be the team’s primary slot man which tends to be a featured role in this particular system. Wyatt is listed as a co-starter along with Robert Downs, both of which should see extensive game action. Terrell Warner will see rotational reps, and it was surprising to not see him listed as a starter given he was the team leader in the spring with eight catches on 15 targets. If choosing one here, Gicinto gets the nod.
Southern Utah @ San Jose State
Point-Spread: SJSU -24
O/U Total: 56.5
Weather: 91 degrees / 8% rain / 9 mph winds
Southern Utah:
My best advice – don’t spend heavy capital on a team that most of us have likely never seen play football before. If you are a degenerate like myself, let’s dive in. Southern Utah finished 1-5 last year in an abbreviated season, and is known to be a pass-happy attack with a 60.3 percent pass rate per.
6-foot-3 sophomore Justin Miller completed 65.3 percent of his throws a year ago, and accounted for two or more passing touchdowns in all but one of the six games played. That included a five-TD performance against Northern Arizona in the opener, and a 400-yard outing vs. Idaho. The downside – Miller gives you next to nothing on the ground with just three attempts all year. Miller should have a positive game-script with USU being a 22-point dog, but takes on a San Jose State defense that returns 10 of 11 starters on defense, including a fierce defensive line that could cause major problems.
Full-on RBBC for the Thunderbirds with the top four backs from last year all returning. 175-pound FR Dayne Christensen is listed atop the depth chart after averaging 6.7 YPC, but never saw more than nine attempts in a game. Senior Thomas Duckett sits on the second line of the depth chart, but averaged a measly 1.5 YPC on 33 attempts. Another FR, Karris Davis, saw 13 carries in the opener vs. Northern Arizona, but his workload fell off dramatically the remainder of the year. Of the three, Christensen saw the most work in the passing game with 11 receptions on 13 targets. At $3,000, Christensen would be the dart throw here, but game scripts won’t work in his favor. Note – Jay Green Jr. is listed on DK at $4,900 but I don’t see him on the team website.
Top three starters at receiver appear set with Lance Lawson, Judd Crockett and Brandon Schenks atop the depth chart. Lawson, the team’s slot receiver, led the team in targets with 45, accounting for 36 receptions, but averaged just 7.8 YPC with an aDOT of only 6.2. Decent full-point PPR option for DK it would appear. Schenks finished with just 17 receptions on 29 targets but was the team leader with six receiving scores – three of which came against N. Arizona. Crockett accounted for 13 catches on 20 targets, but shared time with Lawson in the slot LY. I’m unsure of how that will exactly play out but the depth chart would indicate someone is kicking outside.
Tight ends Tanner McLachlan and Clayton Johnson combined for 23 catches on 27 targets, but the former is not listed currently on the two-deep for reasons unknown to me.
San Jose State:
It’s no secret that Brett Brennan’s teams have preferred to throw the football since arriving at San Jose State, ranking 127th nationally over the last three years in run play percentage at 35.9 percent. That increased only marginally in 2020 to 44 percent, but I wonder if we might see a stylistic shift with SJSU having to replace their top two pass catchers from a year ago in Bailey Gaither and Tre Walker, while returning their top two rushers in the backfield in Tyler Nevens and Kairee Robinson. The latter led the team in carries, but it was Nevens who was superior in nearly every category, averaging 7.8 yards per attempt, a 0.091 EPA/Rush and a higher usage rate on third down at 16.1 percent. With SJSU breaking in a new corps of receivers in a game they’re heavily favored, I’ll want a part of the Spartans’ backfield with a clear nod towards Nevens who sits atop the depth chart.
As for that new WR corps, the depth chart featured two familiar names in Isaiah Hamilton and Jermaine Braddock who were expected to start, along with 6-foot redshirt FR Terence Loville. Brennan has said on multiple occasions this offseason that the plan is to use a number of wide receivers this season, and Week 0 against an FCS foe is a perfect time to experiment with what the Spartans have on the roster. Two SJSU pass-catchers is probably the extent of the exposure we want here, and Hamilton should be the team’s featured target in 2021 given he already has a 47-catch season on his resume back in 2019. Braddock did close last season on a high note with two TD receptions in the final three games.
If adding a second to your lineups, 6-foot-4 tight end Derrick Deese Jr. would get the nod for us as the team’s primary red-zone option after leading the Spartans with five receiving touchdowns last season. Of the choices behind the starters, we might see a pair of transfers getting rotational work with Trevon Sidney (Illinois) and Charles Ross (Nevada).
San Jose State plans to feature two QBs this season with starter Nick Starkel and Nick Nash as they provide differing playing styles with the former used in traditional passing situations, and the latter utilized situationally on a runner. With the 22-point spread, expect to see both on Saturday. While we suspect San Jose State will work in their RBs a bit more, Brennan’s aerial assault background mentioned in the intro must be considered and Starkel will sling the pill and is the strongest play at QB in this two-game slate.