Temple @ Rutgers
Point-Spread: Temp -14.5
O/U Total: 51.5
Weather: 74 degrees / 0% rain / 9 mph winds
Temple:
D’Wan Mathis will be the popular punt play of the slate on DK sitting at $4,900, which means I’ll have some exposure here given the pricing of a dual-threat quarterback that is likely to see 10+ carries as has usually been the case for Rod Carey QBs, but I will have to restrain myself from going overboard here. Rutgers brings back 10 of 11 starters on defense and two of the best linebackers in the Big Ten who helped the Knights lead the conference in tackles for loss. Could keep Mathis in check on the ground from that standpoint, and not looking at a massive number here at an implied total of just 18.5.
With Mathis dipping into the rushing numbers, I’ll likely have very little exposure to the Temple RBs where a committee approach has been the common theme for much of the offseason. That said, Edward Saydee was the reported favorite coming out of the spring, and now sits atop the depth chart at min pricing. You like to see players stack strong spring and fall camps, which Saydee reportedly has, and Temple may not have the services of either Ra’Von Bonner or Iverson Clement per Carey on Thursday. Trey Blair and Tayvon Ruley sit second and third, respectively, on the depth chart. On average, you are looking at around 15 carries per game for the RB1 under Carey over the last seven seasons if projecting what to possibly expect out of Saydee.
At $4,700, WR1 Jadan Blue is probably our most popular choice of the Temple players on Thursday with a positive game script on tap, and the clear top option in the Owls’ passing game, accounting for 23 percent of the target share. Averaged just 8.8 YPC in 2020, but had five or more receptions in all but one game last season – perfect for full-point PPR settings on DraftKings. Randle Jones and Jose Barbon were consistently listed as the WR2 and WR3 for the entire offseason. Jones gets the nod of the two as he proved to be an impact player last season with 31 catches on 41 targets in five games, including a 12-catch performance vs. Memphis.
Tight ends see minimal usage in Carey’s system, but have averaged right around four TD receptions over the last seven seasons. 6-foot-4 David Martin-Robinson could see looks in the red-zone.
Rutgers:
The more I read and look at projections, the more I think Noah Vedral will be the popular punt play at QB over Mathis given the higher implied total (33) and the higher floor he provides as another dual-threat option as he averaged just under 10 carries and 30 rushing yards per contest. Vedral scored 17 or more fantasy points in 5-of-7 weeks in 2020, and Rutgers’ offensive personnel returns largely intact with 10 of 11 starters back, including his trio of starting receivers in Bo Melton, Shameen Jones and Aron Cruickshank. Melton’s the obvious play of the three, leading the team with six touchdowns, 47 catches on 74 targets and the highest aDOT on the roster at 11.9. Jones is a fade for me at $5,100 considering he topped 20 fantasy points just once last season, and the targets evenly distributed between he and Cruickshank.
Isaih Pacheco is probably priced too high for me at $5,700 to garner heavy consideration this week given that he averaged just 13 carries a game last season and averaged just 4.4 YPC. I suspect those numbers will increase in 2021 with four starters up front returning, and could be a favorable matchup against a Temple defense that replaces both defensive tackles and will be starting a true freshman at one spot. Better cash play vs. GPP with his minimal upside – scored 20 or more fantasy points just twice in eight games.
Boise State @ Central Florida
Point-Spread: UCF -5
O/U Total: 68.5
Weather: 81 degrees / 15% rain / 8 mph winds
Boise State:
The two players that will be featured most heavily on Thursday will be RB George Holani and WR Khalil Shakir who are woefully underpriced. New offensive coordinator Tim Plough has featured his RB1 and WR1 extensively over the last few years at his previous stop at UC-Davis. In 2018-19, starting RB Ulonzo Gilliam rushed for over 2,000 combined yards, 24 rushing TDs and had 50+ receptions in BOTH seasons. Holani fits that skillset to a tee. WR1s under Plough have averaged 78 receptions and nine touchdowns in the last six seasons as a play-caller, and we can all agree Shakir is the type of talent to reach such heights.
Only downside for Holani is the depth at RB where coaches have sung praise for RB2 Cyrus Habibi-Likio who is famous for vulturing touchdowns during his time at Oregon. 21 career touchdowns in three seasons despite never carrying the ball more than 85 times in a year. If rostering Holani, we need his impact in the passing game, and maybe a long TD run.
At WR, probably not rostering any other Boise State option outside of Shakir with his 37 percent market share, and last year’s WR2 CT Thomas now sitting on the second line of the depth chart. Coaches have lauded Stefan Cobbs as a possible breakout candidate, so that would be my longshot GPP play.
I really like starting tight end Riley Smith as an option at $3,500 where Plough’s TE1 has averaged 29 receptions and six touchdowns in the last six seasons. That includes a 9-touchdown season from Wesley Pierce back in 2017 in just 10 games.
QB1 Hank Bachmeier will be in play, and should outperform his $6,800 salary if this new system is anything like the one at UC-Davis where they averaged eight plays more per game than Boise State did a year ago. Jake Maier averaged north of 40 passing plays per game in each season as the QB1. Boise State has a very competent backup in Jack Sears, but the expectation is Bachmeier will see the entirety of the contest.
UCF:
If you’ve been with us for the entire offseason, you fully understand our concerns with UCF hiring Gus Malzahn and the impact he could potentially have on this offense, both good and bad. Start with Dillon Gabriel, who didn’t come close to his seasonal averages a year ago in our season-long projections. Highest YPG average from a QB1 under Malzahn in the last nine years was 255 yards, almost 100 yards per game lower than what Gabriel put up a season ago. Does Malzahn tailor the offense towards what’s been successful at UCF the last several years to take advantage of his top talent? I have my concerns.
Where Malzahn could help Gabriel’s fantasy output is getting him on the move more, as his preference over the years has always been a dual-threat. Not known as such, but Gabriel did top double-digit carries four times last season. In a game of such importance with a game total of 69, Gabriel is absolutely in play despite our season-long concerns.
Finally, some clarity at running back where Northwestern transfer Isaiah Bowser will get the starting nod, and has been the trending name in the backfield the last several weeks. We’ve seen instances of both a committee approach and workhorse RB1 under Malzahn, and with his comments this week about the depth chart being fluid, I’m not convinced they are ready to hand 20 carries to a transfer that’s averaged 3.9 YPC for his career. Per Malzahn, the staff is trying to turn RB2 Johnny Richardson into more of an “every-down back” and RB3 Mark Antony-Richards has participated with a knee brace in practice which could explain his third-string status. Over the last seven years, Malzahn’s RBs have combined for just 23 receptions per season so their impact in the passing game is typically minimal. Likely a fade here for me.
The UCF receivers are pricey and I’m not sure how willing I’ll ultimately be about spending up for them. Tennessee transfer Brandon Johnson is listed as one starter but will be a clear fade for me at $6,400 as Malzahn’s offense has typically been centered around the flanker and slot-man – that’s Jaylon Robinson and Ryan O’Keefe. For comparison, think back to Darius Slayton and Ryan Davis for Auburn back in 2019 who combined for 45 percent of the team’s target share. That’s been a consistent theme over the years with two WRs being the primary targets in this scheme. That’s Robinson and O’Keefe, so I’ll want some exposure to those two in GPPs.
104 vacated targets with the departure of Marlon Williams. Robinson was second on the team with 55 catches on 87 targets and a 17.8 YPC average. O’Keefe is the fastest receiver on the team, averaging 19.6 YPC and six plays of 25 yards or more.
East Carolina @ Appalachian State
Point-Spread: App St -10
O/U Total: 56.5
Weather: 79 degrees / 0% rain / 6 mph winds
East Carolina:
The ultimate GPP team in East Carolina with their boom / bust nature of either being slate winners or combusting altogether. Much of the offensive issues for ECU could be contributed to their atrocious offensive line play a year ago, an area of emphasis this offseason. As of today, there is considerably more experience and is a much beefier group, averaging 6-foot-4, 308 pounds across the 2-deep.
Good news for the ECU running backs, but also for Holton Ahlers who had to play off-script far too often with defenders harassing him all game long. Does that yield better results? Bad matchup taking on an Appalachian State defense that returns 88 percent of their defensive production last season, though the Mountaineers didn’t exactly pressure opposing QBs at a high rate LY, ranking 65th in sacks per contest. Ultimately, I’m unlikely to have high exposure of a QB taking on a defense in App State that’s projected inside the Top 26 in defensive SP+ and with that much experience. Ahlers has surprised before, though.
The sporadic nature of Ahlers is eerily similar to that of his top WR in C.J. Johnson who has cut considerable weight this offseason and will be moving to the “Z” spot where he won’t have to deal with initial cornerback jams as much. Only strong take with regards to ECU this week is if you are roster Johnson, you must pair with Ahlers with the belief they have success vs. this App State secondary who lost its top CB to the NFL this offseason. Slot-man Tyler Snead is a different story as a naked PPR option after tallying 53 catches on 72 targets to lead the team in 2020.
WR3 is still an open competition between former UCLA transfer Audie Omotosho, Jsi Hatfield and Taji Hudson. ECU must replace 65 vacated targets with Blake Proehl no longer around, but I’ve seen all three players mentioned at one point in time as a camp standout. Don’t think this spot is settled one bit. Tight ends are a non-factor in this scheme.
Keaton Mitchell was a surprise starter on the depth chart, listed ahead of Rahjai Harris though with an OR designation, and expect both see a split workload as they did last year. Mitchell is $1,800 less, had two 100-yard rushing performances in the final three games last season, and is the better pass-catcher of the two so I’d lean that side if choosing.
Appalachian State:
The expectation is that ECU will be improved against the run in 2021 with 87 percent of their returning defensive production back, and the team’s beat writer notated that the group did look improved in the preseason. Looking improved vs. the ECU offense and the Appalachian State offense is a big difference. This was still a group that allowed over 200 yards per contest and 5.16 YPC.
The OR designation between Camerun Peoples and Nate Noel on the depth chart means absolutely nothing to me. I still believe they are listed accordingly with Peoples as the RB1, and they are both talented enough to deserve top billing on any depth chart. Only concern with Peoples is intended volume as RBs in this system are never used in the passing game, and App State boasts considerable depth even beyond Noel with Anderson Castle and Notre Dame transfer Jahmir Smith, both reportedly having good fall camps. Peoples had just 20+ carries in 3-of-11 games played in 2021.
Chase Brice was the worst QB in FBS last season, and that is not sugar-coating it. I think there is a chance he can succeed given the situation he walks into with arguably the best set of skill position players in the Sun Belt, and the winning culture of App State, but I’m taking a wait-and-see approach with Brice. Mountaineers run the ball at a 62 percent clip, so it’s not as though Brice will have a ton of chances to throw either.
Wait-and-see approach with the receivers as well, with the top three back from last season in Thomas Hennigan, Jalen Virgil and Malik Williams, as well as regaining the services of former leading wideout Corey Sutton. One to watch for me would be Virgil at $3,700. New offensive coordinator Frank Ponce is lining Virgil up in bunch formations and in the slot reportedly, which should lead to mismatch opportunities with his 4.3 40-yard dash speed. Expect the targets to be dispersed evenly amongst this group, so not a lot of upside in a run-heavy scheme.
South Florida @ NC State
Point-Spread: NC St -18.5
O/U Total: 59
Weather: 75 degrees / 0% rain / 8 mph winds
USF:
No depth chart to speak of here, but we have a pretty good idea of who will be in play. North Carolina transfer Cade Fortin was named QB1, and should be an immediate upgrade over last year’s debacle. While USF only threw 12 touchdowns in nine games last season, the Bulls did average nearly 35 passing attempts per game so the volume could yield results that match/surpass his $5,000 salary on DK.
If choosing a WR to pair with Fortin, or as a standalone play, 6-foot-1 junior Xavier Weaver is absolutely at the top of our list as the projected WR1 and his min salary. Weaver accounted for two touchdowns in the team’s spring game, and while he returned from injury just recently in fall camp, head coach Jeff Scott said the wideout picked up right where he left off. My expectation after that is Bryce Miller, Latrell Williams and Omarion Dollison make up the remainder of the top passing game options, though I admittedly don’t have a great read on this situation outside of Weaver being the WR1.
Same situation at running back where as many as four players could see significant playing time. Kelley Joiner is our projected favorite to get the first carry, but Brian Battie, Colorado transfer Jaren Mangham and Oregon transfer Darrian Felix are all expected to be in the mix. South Florida does get all five starters back on the offensive line, but ranked very poorly in run blocking grades per PFF. I’m steering clear of this situation without any clarity.
NC State:
My best suggestion for NC State this weekend, as mentioned on the CFFSite Discord, is to consider sophomore Porter Rooks as a potential option this week with his $3,000 salary. Arguably the second-best receiver on the team, talent wise, Rooks will see the field more in 2021 with the minimalization of the tight end position in the passing game. Rooks showed briefly what he could do as a freshman with 23 receptions on 37 targets, and the expectation is his reps increase significantly as a sophomore.
WR1 Emeka Emezie is back to full strength reportedly after missing time during fall camp, and I think would be a strong GPP play as folks are likely to sway towards Thayer Thomas with his lesser salary at $4,400. Good opportunity to pivot with Thomas possibly sharing snaps with Rooks in 3-receiver sets. With Devin Carter also factoring into the mix, we could see much of the same from last year where no WR accounted for more than 19 percent of the target share.
NC State beat writer on 247 indicated that this could be a matchup in the opener where the Wolfpack lean on the run vs. a USF defense that ranked last in the AAC, allowing 212 yards a contest. Will we see the same split this year between Zonovan Knight and Ricky Person? Sure hope not with Knight being the far more effective back, averaging over a yard more per carry with 10 touchdowns. The masses will flock towards the lower-salaried RBs like Charles Williams and George Holani, so this will be a good chance to pivot towards Knight in bigger GPPs as a contrarian play. Knight gives us the added of involvement in the passing game with 20 receptions on 25 targets.
QB1 Devin Leary is healthy and ready to go just five months after suffering a season-ending leg injury vs. Duke last fall. In just 3.5 games, Leary threw for 890 yards and eight TDs with just two interceptions, including a 4-TD performance against Pittsburgh. Leary adds nothing on the ground – seven yards on 19 carries – so his fantasy value will be dependent on his arm in what should be a negative game script as an 18.5-point favorite.
Bowling Green @ Tennessee
Point-Spread: Tenn -35
O/U Total: 61
Weather: 72 degrees / 0% rain / 6 mph winds
Bowling Green:
Terion Stewart is Bowling Green’s best offensive player, rushing for 295 yards and four TDs (7.9 YPC) on just 37 attempts. Zero consideration at $6,200 on DK with a negative game script forthcoming, and we have no idea how Stewart will look with a step up in class vs. an SEC opponent. His best performances last year came against Kent State and Akron. Only other option here worth considering would be Washington transfer Austin Osborne who immediately becomes our projected WR1 and is min salary. If it weren’t Matt McDonald throwing him the football, maybe I’d consider Osborne more seriously.
Tennessee:
Not surprised that Joe Milton got the QB1 nod for Tennessee as he perfectly suited to run the style of offense that new head coach Josh Heupel intends to employ. Milton has a howitzer for an arm, albeit not always accurate, and UCF ranked in the Top 30 nationally in yards per attempt in each year Heupel was at the helm. Murmurs from the Tennessee faithful have suggested that the first-year coach will look to impress the fanbase with a thrashing of lowly Bowling Green, and plenty of touchdowns are expected by Vegas with an implied total of 48.
Where DK did a disservice to EWU players (more on that later), they evened things out by pricing up Milton and some of the other Tennessee options. Because this is a likely blowout, I’ll probably be underweight in my exposure to Milton with Tennessee being the heavy favorites and his 50 percent career completion rate, but who doesn’t have success against a Bowling Green defense?
Heupel employs a RBBC with no running back topping 200 carries in each of the last six years as a play caller, and the RB2 averaging 122 attempts in that span. Likely outcome on Thursday with JUCO transfer Tiyon Evans and Jabari Small handling much of the workload. With such a pass-happy offense, you’d think that RBs are featured in the passing game – not the case as the top two combined to average just 22 receptions per season. I’d lean towards the Evans/Small pairing in DK more than FD with the more forgiving salaries. Freshman Jaylen Wright has been part of the Top 3 at running back all offseason and would be the longshot punt play in a blowout setting.
Thought we might initially get Jalin Hyatt and Velus Jones at discounts since both are relatively unproven players, but appears both sites believe this Heupel offense will take shape immediately in Week 1. These are the clear-cut top two options in the Tennessee passing game, but have to spend an arm and leg on both sites in order to roster them unfortunately. For GPP purposes, I don’t mind it. WR3-4, Javonta Payton and Cedric Tillman, have steep salaries as well, and will be fades for me this week.
Tight end usage is minimal at best in a Josh Heupel offense.
Ohio State @ Minnesota
Point-Spread: OSU -14
O/U Total: 62.5
Weather: 71 degrees / 9% rain / 12 mph winds
Ohio State:
Take advantage of the FanDuel pricing with the Ohio State running backs with Miyan Williams sitting pretty at $6,400. Maybe Master Teague gets the first carry tonight vs. Minnesota? I’ve been told from someone who follows the program very closely that Williams continues to see first-team reps in practice and has all throughout camp. The X-Factor here being 5-star freshman TreVeyon Henderson who likely takes over this starting job at some point this season. Week 1? Probably not, but he is cheap enough on both sites to garner heavy consideration as a punt play. Every starter is back for the Gophers on a defense that struggled mightily stopping the run in 2020, allowing 207 YPG, and takes on an elite Ohio State offensive line.
First-year starter C.J. Stroud likely dips into that rushing attack as we shadowed his statistical projection this year to that of J.T. Barrett in his debut season as the starter where he averaged 14 rushing attempts per game. Limited sample size on Stroud, but the former 5-star showed off what he can do with his legs last year vs. Michigan State with his 48-yard scamper in garbage time. We’ve yet to see what Stroud is capable of as a passer, but his teammates lauded his arm talent in camp, saying what a catchable ball he throws, and was good enough to fend off other 5-star talents in Kyle McCord and Quinn Ewers.
Very curious to see how the WR situation sorts out tonight for the Buckeyes. Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave garnered around 60 percent of the target share last year. Does that continue in 2021 or do we see the other 5-star talents in the Ohio State WR room start to emerge. If one receiver does carve out a bigger role, projected starter Jaxon Smith-Njigba would be the one to watch here. Far more appealing on FanDuel sitting at $5,100. These are the only three WRs worth considering for Ohio State tonight despite the wealth of talent waiting in the wings with Emeka Egbuka and Marvin Harrison Jr.
Hit or miss with tight end Jeremy Ruckert – a talented player that doesn’t see the opportunities he should because of the scheme. Went from two touchdowns on four targets in the CFP semifinal vs. Clemson to just one targets against Alabama in the championship. A perfect display of the randomness of his production.
Minnesota:
The Gophers really like the depth they have at running back with Trey Potts and Cam Wiley, but the team’s beat writer has reiterated all offseason that it will be another 25 touches per game for Mo Ibrahim in 2021. And with the ailing WR corps, 30+ carries for Ibrahim behind Minnesota’s mammoth offensive line tonight would not shock me in the slightest. Ohio State’s defensive line should be a strength this season, making the trenches one of the more intriguing battles in this matchup, but the Buckeyes linebacking corps is a major question mark having to replace their top four options from a year ago.
Minnesota will have to run it 40+ times tonight with receiver Chris Autman-Bell being a game-time decision per head coach P.J. Fleck. Should CAB not play, the starting trio you are probably looking at tonight would be Daniel Jackson, Michael Brown-Stephens in the slot, and lanky 6-foot-4 Texas A&M transfer Dylan Wright. Impression I’ve gathered is that none of the Minnesota receivers outside of CAB have been that consistent in practices, and with the Gophers playing keep away tonight, I’m not willing to roster anyone even on the cheap.
If Tanner Morgan was bad last season with Rashod Bateman and CAB, I’d hate to see what he looks like tonight without either player to throw to. Hard pass.
Eastern Washington @ UNLV
Point-Spread: UNLV -2.5
O/U Total: 67
Weather: 75 degrees / 1% rain / 11 mph winds
EWU:
QB Eric Barriere the lock of the slate at $5,200? 55 passing touchdowns in his last two seasons as the starter, averaging 36 passing attempts per game, and an EWU implied game total of 32. If you weren’t convinced yet that Barriere is an option tonight, the start QB also averaged nearly 10 carries per game on the ground with eight rushing scores in 2019. His lone appearance vs. an FBS opponent was in the opener on the road vs. No. 13 Washington where he completed 21-of-35 for 211 yards and a TD.
UNLV is not Washington.
Running back Dennis Merritt will get the start Thursday in the backfield, and had seven total touchdowns last season – four rushing / three receiving. Last year’s starter Tamarick Pierce is not listed on the team’s 2-deep as he’s dealing with injury so Merritt could shoulder much of the workload.
If looking to pair Barriere with a receiver or two, Talolo Limu-Jones is our primary focus at $5,000 as he had at least four catches and eight targets in all seven games last season, leading the team in both categories. Fellow starters Freddie Roberson (34 catches / 58 targets) and Andrew Boston (27 catches / 39 targets) are both back as well. Tight end usage is a non-factor in their offense from the looks of it, so WR4 could be in play with sophomore Efton Chism III (22 catches / 29 targets)
UNLV:
Charles Williams feels close to a lock this week given the favorable matchup against an Eastern Washington defense that allowed 196 yards per game on the ground last season. Williams reached 19 carries in five of the six games played last season, and saw increased usage in the passing game with 12 catches on 16 targets in just six games – more than he had in all of 2019.
No indication yet as to who starts between Doug Brumfield or Justin Rogers at quarterback, but would lean the former given he was the favorite coming out of the spring, and he sits on the top line of the depth chart. Given the possibility of both seeing play time, combined with facing an EWU defense that allowed just 187 YPG in 2020, I don’t have much interest here.
Passing game should be centered around two options – sophomores Kyle Williams and Zyell Griffin. The 6-foot Williams led the Rebels in targets last season (52) and had two 100-yard receiving performances in the final three games. Griffin had just six receptions on the year, but was targeted five times in each of the final three games. Tight ends Noah Bean and Giovanni Fauolo combined for 25 receptions in just five games played, and Bean is no longer around.
Southern Utah @ Arizona State
Point-Spread: Az St -45
O/U Total: 55
Weather: 91 degrees / 0% rain / 5 mph winds
Southern Utah:
Did you watch them in Week 0? In essence of time, nobody gets consideration here.
Arizona State:
I think we can look to last year’s thrashing of Arizona in the Sun Devils 70-7 win as a possible reference point of what to expect for this impending blowout tonight. I simply cannot rationalize spending up for QB Jayden Daniels in a game where he may get just 15 passing attempts and five carries. Daniels did account for three touchdowns in the win vs. the Wildcats a year ago, but that was on just 11 throws and four rushing attempts. I can’t see myself rostering him with that sort of touchdown dependency being necessary to hit value.
Arizona State will employ a three-headed backfield, led by big-play threat Rachaad White and bruising sophomore DeaMonte Trayanum. Both players wound up with just 10 carries, but combined for four rushing scores – three of which came from White who is also the better pass-catcher of the two. I was hoping we could see third-stringer Daniyel Ngata as a min salary player on DK, as he rushed for 60 yards and a touchdown on 16 carries vs. Arizona, but even he sits at $4,300. I don’t have a great read on how this will play out and am probably unwilling to pay up to find out. I think Trayanum could be a decent bargain, all things considered, as he saw more red-zone carries than White last season.
I’m not putting much stock into how the Arizona State depth chart reads at receiver with Ricky Pearsall, Johnny Wilson and Andre Johnson being listed on the top line. LV Bunkley-Shelton is the most dependable option of the group, and still my choice to lead the team in receptions in 2021. Utah transfer Bryan Thompson had a quiet fall camp according to the Athletic beat writer, but his 22.9 YPC career averages makes him perfectly suited for the Frank Darby role of the past two seasons. He’s an easy fade this week on DK at $7,300, though. Interested to see how this plays out over the course of the season, but I can’t fathom taking a chance on anyone here if Jayden Daniels attempts 11 passes tonight.
Tight ends play no part in this offensive scheme.