Western Carolina @ Oklahoma
Point-Spread: Okla -51
O/U Total: 64.5
Weather: 92 degrees / 0% rain / 16 mph winds
Western Carolina:
Don’t have the target numbers but only player I’d consider is WR1 Raphael Williams at $4,900 who had eight catches for 122 yards vs. Eastern Kentucky last week. If someone else pops off where WCU is projected to score 7.5 points, then blame DraftKings for putting these FCS teams on the slate.
Oklahoma:
Will this be a narrative performance for Oklahoma? Spencer Rattler remains a Heisman hopeful and the Sooners need a bounce back after the near defeat last week at home to Tulane where they scored just three points in the second half. Looking back at the Missouri State game last season, Rattler did throw four touchdowns but came on just 34 snaps so we are likely only looking at a half of play. Worth it? Going to need at least four TDs to pay off that $9,900 salary. 16 MPH winds expected if that sways your decision for the passing game.
Improvements from Lincoln Riley with regards to the snap counts as it was a steady rotation of just four receivers between Jadon Haselwood, Marvin Mims, Mario Williams and Michael Woods. Williams looks to be one of the best plays of the slate as the leading target-getter last week and is inexplicably still a $3k punt play on DK. How? Haselwood saw the most snaps of any Oklahoma receiver with Woods/Williams splitting at the RWR spot and Mims still seemingly on a pitch count.
Referencing that Missouri State game again last season, only one RB for the Sooners accumulated double-digit carries on the day. Assume we’d see much of the same tonight between Eric Gray, Kennedy Brooks and some unknown walk-ons. Snap counts appear relatively even between the two 41-35 in favor of Brooks, and he was far more effective on the ground with 87 yards and a TD on 14 carries. While I still favor Gray as the more talented player, it’s Brooks who would be the preference here at just $5,800 given last week’s results. Another strange salary decision from DK.
Texas @ Arkansas
Point-Spread: Tex -6.5
O/U Total: 56.5
Weather: 86 degrees / 0% rain / 10 mph winds
Texas:
Bijan Robinson. Lock n’ load. 20-25 touches per game is a given every week whether via the run or pass. The Razorbacks did the job a week ago, holding Rice to under three yards a carry, but facing arguably the best running back in the country is a different task entirely. Texas ranks No. 1 in the country in Offensive Power Success after just one week and should fare well against Barry Odom’s 3-3-5 defense. Arkansas did not allow Rice to have a rushing attempt over 12 yards all game long, but that’s not a concern here for a back like Robinson.
Odom is likely to have a spy on Robinson so that could open up some opportunities for Hudson Card and this passing game. Card did his job last week, completing 14-of-21 passes for 224 yards and two touchdowns, feeding his playmakers in Robinson and WR1 Jordan Whittington. Different story this week facing an SEC opponent on the road, at night, in a hostile environment. I’ll probably fade Card, but have interest in Whittington who looked every bit the top option last week in the Texas passing game with 7-113-1 on seven targets. Talent has never been the issue, and he appears 100 percent healthy. Xavier Worthy and Joshua Moore actually posted more snaps than Whittington, though impact was minimal with four catches on seven targets. No other WR logged more than nine snaps which make all three intriguing from that standpoint.
Arkansas:
This game will fall upon the shoulders and legs of K.J. Jefferson. Stat-line is jaded because Jefferson was not good for much of the contest last week with the Razorbacks scoring just seven points at half time. Just two designed runs for Jefferson vs. Rice, but the result was 102 yards and two rushing scores. So much for looking overweight this offseason. Tempting at his $5,900 salary as the ball is going to be in his hands quite a bit tonight. As for his WR1 Treylon Burks, it sounds as though he will be closer to 100 percent this week despite playing 58 of 67 snaps a week ago, leading the team with five catches on nine targets. Slot receiver De’Vion Warren played 53 of 67 snaps, though the production was minimal with two catches for 14 yards. He proved capable a year ago with three touchdowns in a two-game span vs. Mississippi State and Auburn.
So much for the turf toe with Trelon Smith in fall camp, rushing for 102 yards and a touchdown on 22 carries with no other running back seeing more than seven attempts. Don’t love the matchup against a Texas defensive front that ranks 26th in D Rush Play PPA after one week and held a good Louisiana rushing attack to just 2.62 yards per attempt on 29 carries. Too pricy for the slate in my opinion.
NC State @ Mississippi State
Point-Spread: NC St -1
O/U Total: 55.5
Weather: 81 degrees / 0% rain / 4 mph winds
NC State:
No chance we see the 200-yard rushing output from Zonovan Knight and Ricky Person like we saw a week ago facing a Mississippi State defense that was one of the best in the nation a year ago, and held Louisiana Tech running backs to just 33 yards on the ground last week. Snaps were dead even between the two making this an avoidable situation in my eyes. Would’ve loved to see Devin Leary’s salary a bit lower than $7k as he offers very little threat as a runner. The junior QB missed a few throws last week but was generally effective with 232 passing yards and two touchdowns. If there is an area of the MSU defense for which NC State to exploit, it is the secondary which allowed Austin Kendall to throw for 250 yards. With last week’s blowout, we saw six different receivers log double-digit snaps. That will be condensed down to at least four with Emeka Emezie, Thayer Thomas, Devin Carter and Porter Rooks in the main rotation. Everyone is priced too highly for my taste, but Emezie is the clear WR1 here and led the Wolfpack with six targets last week. Expect low ownership here with pricing so he’s a good GPP option.
Mississippi State:
Will Rogers played all 70 snaps last week vs. Louisiana Tech – you love to see it as someone who argued his case as the best option at QB all offseason. Was he perfect? No. But 370 yards and three touchdowns on 47 attempts gets the job done every time, particularly at $6,400. Tough to gauge how good the NC State pass defense will be in 2021 after shutting down a worthless South Florida passing attack, but they return 87 percent of their defensive production from a year ago.
Big development at running back where Jo’Quavious Marks dominated the snap counts over Dillon Johnson en route to a three-touchdown performance. Marks was second on the team in targets (69) a year ago, and led the Bulldogs in said category (11) vs. Tech last week. In this PPR format, Marks provides the highest floor of any player on the slate.
As expected, six different receivers saw 30 snaps or more last week…A-typical for what to expect out of a Mike Leach offense. California transfer Makai Polk led the way with 10 catches on 10 targets, though that resulted in just 57 yards with an aDOT of 2.1. Malik Heath is expected back after missing last week due to suspension, but he will start opposite Polk on the outside so shouldn’t change things much. It was a near-even split in snaps between slot receivers Austin Williams, Jaden Walley and Jamire Calvin, so truly a guessing game as to which will pop in a given week.
Eastern Kentucky @ Louisville
Point-Spread: Lou -30
O/U Total: 62.5
Weather: 81 degrees / 0% rain / 10 mph winds
Eastern Kentucky:
Maybe Eastern Kentucky has improved since last season, but all that is stuck in my head is the 50 burgers they allowed to both Marshall and West Virginia last year, and scoring just 10 points combined in the two contests. With eight games on the slate, we aren’t forced to roster any of the FCS players and I don’t plan to at this moment in time.
Louisville:
The focus here is on the Louisville backfield which did not live up to expectations in the opener with leading rusher Jalen Mitchell running for just 49 yards on 12 carries. Scott Satterfield mentioned post-game last week that the offense started taking what the Ole Miss defense was giving them in the second half, which started to open up more running lanes for Mitchell later in the game. Eastern Kentucky allowed over 200 yards per game on the ground last season, and gave up 5.95 yards per carry in their opener against another FCS opponent. Mitchell should feasibly eat tonight. ***One note that I did read from one of the Louisville beat writers. He did mention that should Mitchell struggle again in any fashion this week, he has a “gut feeling” Trevion Cooley will see a longer look in the backfield. At min salary, might be worth a look as he’ll get reps regardless – if Mitchell struggles again or it’s a blowout.
Malik Cunningham is definitely in play considering the matchup, and is one of the better “floor” options in this slate, accounting for two or more touchdowns in 10 of his last 12 games. Won’t be needed for 18 carries on the ground this week like he did against Ole Miss, but a safe floor nonetheless with Louisville’s implied total of 46.
WR1 Jordan Watkins played the most snaps of any wide receiver last week, but resulted in just four receptions on four targets. He’s the only wideout on the depth chart without an OR designation, which makes him the safest play conceivably, but is it worth it to spend up to $6,800? Slot receiver Braden Smith played the second most snaps and caught the lone touchdown pass. Josh Johnson was second on the team with six catches on six targets, highly efficient for someone who played just 18 snaps. TE1 Marshon Ford led UL with eight targets and is dirt cheap at $3,500.
Missouri @ Kentucky
Point-Spread: UK -5.5
O/U Total: 56.5
Weather: 76 degrees / 0% rain / 9 mph winds
Missouri:
While DraftKings was putting all there focus into trying to figure out who plays for Western Carolina and Eastern Kentucky, they inexplicably entered a $4,900 salary for Tyler Badie who topped 240 total yards and two touchdowns last week vs. Central Michigan. Even if Kentucky is able to stop the run tonight, Badie has over 60 receptions in his career and will be a major factor out of the backfield as a pass-catcher. How can you fade him at this pricing? Kentucky allowed just 17 yards on the ground in the opener vs. Louisiana-Monroe.
As expected, Keke Chism and Tauskie Dove led the team in snaps, with Chism tied with Mookie Cooper for the team-lead in targets with five. Cooper, who looks to be probable entering Saturday, was tied with Chism in targets and had five catches despite being on the field for only 16 plays. The former 4-star Ohio State transfer is just $3k. QB Connor Bazelak is cheap at $5,600 and played just okay vs. Central Michigan, completing 22 of 35 for 259 yards and two TDs. 60 of those yards came on the first pass play of the game which resulted in a touchdown, so the numbers were a tad skewed. The Missouri offense frequently feel behind the sticks – acceptable vs. Central Michigan, not so much against Kentucky.
Kentucky:
It was exciting to see the new and improved Kentucky offense under Liam Coen, now able to complete a forward pass on a consistent basis. I have a sneaky feeling Kentucky is going to go to their bread and butter tonight with star running back Chris Rodriguez. Efficient day last week with 19 carries for 125 yards and a TD on just 39 total snaps, and it appears on paper to be another favorable matchup against a Missouri defense that struggled against Central Michigan, allowing nine rushing plays of 10 yards or more. And as Kentucky showed last week, you can’t stack nine in the box against them anymore. As was indicated this offseason, we don’t really have to worry anymore about RB2 Kavosiey Smoke stealing significant snaps either like we’ve seen for UK the last couple years.
Night and day with the UK quarterback play after just one game with Will Levis who completed 18-of-26 passes for 367 yards and four touchdowns. By far, his two favorite targets were Wan’Dale Robinson and Josh Ali who combined for 10 receptions for 261 total yards and three touchdowns on 15 targets which accounted for half of Levis’ passing attempts. The upgrade in offensive systems was evident immediately – according to Pro Football Focus, Robinson’s average depth of target was 15.3 yards, while Ali’s was 15.8. Only other receiver that saw significant game reps was Isaiah Epps who had three catches on four targets.
Appalachian State @ Miami
Point-Spread: Mia -7.5
O/U Total: 54.5
Weather: 86 degrees / 0% rain / 9 mph winds
Appalachian State:
My assumption is last week’s performance from Chase Brice was a mirage, throwing for 259 yards and a pair of scores vs. East Carolina. This is not the matchup we want Brice against an attacking Miami defense that wants to get downhill and has historically been good at creating havoc. That’s an incoming disaster for Brice who showed last year he does not deal well with pressure, throwing 15 interceptions and losing six fumbles. The market share is spread out amongst the receivers for me to have a ton of interest in them as the top four receivers went 6-5-4-3 across the board last week vs. ECU. We did see a bit of separation with the snap counts with Corey Sutton and Thomas Hennigan seeing more on-field work, and they were 1-2 in targets so that’s the direction I’d lean if choosing. Malik Williams and Jalen Virgil will be involved.
23 implied points for Appalachian State today so the scoring is coming from somewhere, and its usually a safe bet its coming on the ground. Miami’s run defense looked improved for one week, allowing just 147 yards on 38 carries. The key to defending the outside zone run scheme for the Mountaineers is racking up the TFLs and Miami succeeded in that area last week with 10 tackles for loss against the Tide. We saw Camerun Peoples and Nate Noel in a timeshare last week with 15 and 14 carries, respectively, and both are priced up after topping 100 yards. I don’t have a great feel here how much exposure I want with the App State running backs as there are advantages on both sides that either team could exploit.
Miami:
D’Eriq King is one of my favorite plays of this night slate looking to bounce back from the disastrous performance against Alabama a week ago. App State’s secondary will present a challenge but they gave up nearly 300 yards last week to Holton Ahlers. King’s full complement of receivers will be available as Mike Harley is set to go after missing a good chunk of the game last week. You can really look in any direction here with the Miami pass-catchers as they’ll all be viable options. Shaun Jolly is App State’s best cornerback and will be lined up opposite Charleston Rambo or Keyshawn Smith who led the Hurricanes last week with a combined 11 receptions on 14 targets. My top play would be Will Mallory at $3,500 in a system that favors the tight end position frequently. Just two targets last week, but Mallory was a factor in every contest last year that Brevin Jordan missed due to injury.
Don Chaney Jr. is still Miami’s best running back and I don’t think its all that close between him and Cam’Ron Harris. Neither were productive last week, though much of that had to do with the linebackers across from them with Alabama’s collection of studs. If Miami’s offensive line struggles again this week with a massive size advantage against App State’s defensive front, we have problems looking ahead. Chaney is the punt play here at $3,700, though both will get run.
Eastern Michigan @ Wisconsin
Point-Spread: Wis -26
O/U Total: 52
Weather: 80 degrees / 0% rain / 8 mph winds
Eastern Michigan:
Avoiding the QBs at all costs with the likelihood being high that Eastern Michigan plays two quarterbacks on Saturday vs. a Top 10 defense on the road. As of Thursday, Eastern Michigan had yet to name a starter between Preston Hutchinson and Ben Bryant. No thanks. Its not as though EMU will see many chances to hold the ball either as Wisconsin led the nation in time of possession in 2020, averaging around 36 minutes on offense. That trend continued vs. the Nittany Lions, holding the ball for around 42 minutes.
The Badgers held Penn State to just 2.78 yards per carry in Week 1, so I don’t have much confidence an Eastern Michigan team will generate much success on the ground either. Darius Boone Jr. led the way last week with 115 yards and a TD on 23 carries, though Jawon Hamilton and Samson Evans found their way into the mix as well with four combined rushing scores.
Last year’s second leading receiver, Tanner Knue, did not play in Week 1 and is not listed on the depth chart this week either so he’s eliminated from the pool. Dylan Drummond and Dylan Summers played on 80 percent of the snaps, combining for six catches on 13 targets. WR1 Hassan Beydoun had three catches on three targets but inexplicitly played just 20 snaps – not sure whether injury or just situational?
Wisconsin:
Eastern Michigan has actually won three straight games now vs. Big Ten teams. Should we be wary of this one? Hell no. This is going to be a blowout of mass proportions. Big storyline is at running back and the status of Jalen Berger who wound up not playing last week despite being in full uniform. Head coach Paul Chryst stated Berger had a great week of practice and is doing what he needs to do to see the field? I’m not touching this situation until we see him back on the field. Clemson transfer Chez Mellusi got the start last week and did rush for 121 yards and a TD, but came on 31 carries. At $6,300, he’s a safe bet to hit his price point against a defense that allowed nearly 240 YPG on the ground last year.
Graham Mertz redemption game? Just awful vs. Penn State with two costly interceptions, a pair of fumbles and didn’t surpass the 200-yard passing mark on 37 attempts. Does Chryst look to get Mertz some confidence against an inferior opponent? If he does, he’ll be looking in the direction of TE Jake Ferguson and WR1 Danny Davis who combined for 17 catches on 22 targets last week. Kendric Pryor saw the most snaps of any WR (79) but was limited to one catch on three targets.
Washington @ Michigan
Point-Spread: Mich -6.5
O/U Total: 48
Weather: 76 degrees / 0% rain / 12 mph winds
Washington:
Washington losing their opener to Montana was not due to how they played defensively. Dylan Morris was the same quarterback we saw last year, completing just 55 percent of his passes and three interceptions. His yards per attempt average, at least for a week, was down to 7.2 after averaging over 10 yards per attempt a year ago. The Michigan secondary had some lapses last week vs. Western Michigan but played well overall, in particular 5-star safety Daxton Hill who was everywhere. I want no part of Morris this week…or any week for that matter.
The Huskies struggling mightily on the ground was a major surprise considering the opponent and the fact they brought back all five starters on the offensive line. If there was any positive from a CFF / DFS perspective, it appears that Washington may have settled on clear-cut RB1 with Richard Newton who saw 38 more snaps than the next closest running back. Sean McGrew, once thought to be the projected starter earlier in the offseason, sat vs. Montana so perhaps the dynamic changes once back in uniform. Story to watch Saturday night, but will be tough sledding again vs. a Michigan defense that will not be undersized like the Grizzles.
Top 3 receivers for Washington were all out last week which probably contributed to the lack of success in the passing game. Sounds as though Terrell Bynum could be returning this week, and there is an Instagram post showing Jalen McMillan is on the flight to Ann Arbor so he could be a go as well. Ja’Lynn Polk suffered a chest injury in Week 1 and went through emergency surgery and is done for the season. No mention in a recent report as to the status of Rome Odunze, and should he miss the contest, one outside receiver spot looks to be in good hands with 6-foot-1 sophomore Taj Davis who caught six passes for 59 yards on 10 targets. He looks like the play here at min. salary if Odunze is indeed out.
Cade Otton remains the Huskies best player on offense, going 8-82-0 on a team-high 11 targets. Morris thrives on passes short and over the middle of the field, completing 71-of-98 passes between the numbers and less than 20 yards downfield. Right in Otton’s wheelhouse.
Michigan:
Cade McNamara is a game-manager and nothing more. No rushing upside. And faces a Washington secondary with four potential NFL Draft picks without his best receiver in Ronnie Bell who suffered a season-ending injury. Its going to be a mixed bag at receiver to fill the shoes of Bell, with Roman Wilson, Mike Sainristil, A.J. Henning and Daylen Baldwin all contributing. Cornelius Johnson had just two receptions on two targets vs. Western Michigan, but he is the best bet to step into the WR1 role now with Bell out. Will be tough for find a spot for him at $6,200 for a low-volume passing offense.
The running game was the story of the game for the Wolverines in the opener with 335 yards on 43 carries, including four runs of 20+ yards or more. The hype surrounding Blake Corum was warranted, rushing for 111 yards on 14 carries with two total touchdowns. Snap counts were near even between he and starter Hassan Haskins, who found the end-zone as well, and that’s going to be the norm for the entirety of the season so it would be wise to not expect otherwise. Washington didn’t exactly stuff the run vs. Montana, allowing 127 yards on the ground to an undersized Grizzles team, and four carries of 10 yards or more. The Wolverines should be able to find some success on the ground on Saturday, and that’s going to be their emphasis offensively most weeks.