Kansas @ Iowa State
Point-Spread: ISU -34.5
O/U Total: 57
Weather: 73 degrees / 3% rain / 8 mph winds
Kansas:
Even in a losing effort, last weekend’s offensive performance from the Jayhawks is something to build on, as their 530 yards was the highest mark since Week 9 of 2019. North Texas transfer Jason Bean has been a bright spot at quarterback, averaging 250 yards of total offense per game (44th in the country) and is a constant threat to run with his track-level speed – his 270 rushing yards is seventh most among FBS quarterbacks. Bean was complemented in the backfield last week by true freshman Devin Neal who posted a career-high 107 yards and a touchdown. Is that sustainable or a one-off performance against a lowly run defense? Kansas ranks 99th in Line Yards and 84th in Stuff Rate which leans towards the former in that debate. Last week against Baylor was the first time Iowa State allowed a team to average over two yards a carry so I’m out on Neal this week. Bean is tough because he’s averaging 14 carries a game which could pay off his $5,000 salary easily regardless of how well he passes the ball.
Target tree appears settled with Trevor Wilson, Lawrence Arnold and Kwamie Lassiter who combined for 17 receptions on 26 of the 30 available targets last week vs. Duke. Each have really taken their turns this year as the perceived WR1, though it was Wilson who was the top option against the Blue Devils with 12 targets. FWIW, we have Lassiter as the highest-projected of the three this week, but are all separated by a mere two fantasy points. Pick your poison.
Iowa State:
If there is a remedy to an ailing offense, the Kansas defense is the perfect cure. Quarterback Brock Purdy has looked better over the last two weeks since his benching in Week 2, completing over 70 percent of his passes with four touchdowns, and will take on a Jayhawks’ secondary that ranks 130th in Defensive Pass Play Success Rate. Projections don’t love Purdy this week at just 21 fantasy points, making his $8,500 salary seem absurd for considering, but this is really a zero-risk proposition given the defense he is facing.
There should be no shortage of running lanes either for star rusher Breece Hall, taking on the 126th rank run defense that has already allowed 16 touchdowns on the ground. Our highest-projected running back of the entire week. Don’t need my analysis here to know it’s a good play. Charlie Kolar and Xavier Hutchinson continue to be the mainstays in the passing game, accounting for 48 percent of the team target share. Only other pass-catcher to make even a dent in that last week was tight end Chase Allen with 6-99-0 on six targets. Joe Scates and Tarique Milton are the only other options to even consider in the Iowa State passing game and they are the longest of longshots.
Mississippi State @ Texas A&M
Point-Spread: A&M -7
O/U Total: 46
Weather: 78 degrees / 6% rain / 5 mph winds
Mississippi State:
Feel like we’ve focused so much on the Mississippi State offense already in our DFS writeups that you could re-read what I wrote last week on the Bulldogs and it would apply here. Will Rogers will get his yards and likely hit the 300-yard bonus, but it will probably take 60 attempts to get there as Texas A&M ranks 4th overall in yards allowed this season, are the No. 1 ranked team in Defensive Pass Play Success Rate and No. 2 in Pass Play PPA. Team’s simply aren’t scoring points against the Aggies. WR pecking order remains the same at the top with Makai Polk and Malik Heath as the top two options outside, combining for 13 receptions on 19 targets last week vs. LSU. Benefitted some from Derek Stingley Jr. being out, but Polk sitting atop the stat sheet has been a constant all season long. You’re looking at a rotation in the slot with Austin Williams, Jamire Calvin and Jaden Walley, with the latter sitting third amongst that group in terms of snaps. Not sure why the fall from grace after finishing the 2020 season on such a high note. Outside of Polk and Heath, not a lot of upside here, even in a full-point PPR setting. Feeling like a broken record but same story at running back as well with split reps between Jo’quavious Marks and Dillon Johnson, with the latter outscoring Marks in both of the last two games with 16 receptions on 19 targets. Texas A&M ranks 92nd in the country against the run, but are 21st in Rush Success Rate. We are seeing 60 pass attempts from Rogers on Saturday night.
Texas A&M:
There is no secret as to what MSU will attempt to do on Saturday – shut down the run and force Zach Calzada to beat them with his arm. Of the starting QBs in the SEC, Calzada is tied with Ken Seals with the lowest completion percentage at 52.8 and has yet to score more than 21 fantasy points in either of the three games played – his three passing touchdowns came against New Mexico (congrats). For as much as we laud the MSU rush defense, the Bulldogs are quite good at defending the pass as well, where opposing QBs complete just 59 percent of their throws and are 36th in Pass Play Success Rate. No updates from Jimbo Fisher that I’ve seen regarding the health status of receivers Caleb Chapman, Chase Lane and Zeke Jones who missed last week vs. Arkansas, calling them day-to-day. Jalen Preston saw his first extended action of the season, finishing with 3-33-0 on five targets. Ainias Smith and Demond Demas caught two passes on five targets each. Those were the only receivers that saw much playing time last week as Calzada utilized his running backs frequently in the passing game with both Isaiah Spiller and Devon Achane accounting for six targets each.
As for the running backs, I think the offensive line might be in better shape this week with better health from what I read, but its been a struggle, ranking 109th in Stuff Rate and 51st in Line Yards. This is not the defense to try and fix your issues as Mississippi State is No. 2 in the SEC in rush defense, allowing just 2.79 yards per carry and 6th in Rush Play Success Rate. I don’t see much upside with either Spiller or Achane this week. FWIW – Spiller had a great deal of success against this D last year with 114 yards and two TDs, but that was behind an experienced offensive line. He doesn’t have that this year.
Baylor @ Oklahoma State
Point-Spread: OK State -3.5
O/U Total: 47.5
Weather: 78 degrees / 5% rain / 6 mph winds
Baylor:
Oklahoma State won the challenge last week against Kansas State’s ground game, holding the Wildcats to just 62 yards rushing – they came into the matchup averaging 235 yards rushing per game. Baylor enters this weekend currently leads the Big 12 with 273.25 rushing yards per game and ranks sixth in the country behind its two-heading attack of Abram Smith and Trestan Ebner. Smith leads the Bears with 413 rushing yards and five touchdowns on 57 carries this season. While the Cowboys are strong defending the run, I have a difficult time saying we eliminate the players from the pool with Baylor’s offensive line being one of the best in the country, ranking 1st in Power Success, 3rd in Line Yards and 2nd in Rush Play PPA. There isn’t a matchup where you say Baylor can’t run the football with some success.
If Oklahoma State does manage to shut down the run, then it falls on Gerry Bohanon who passed his first legitimate test last week against Iowa State, combining for 200 total yards of offense and three TDs. Tall task for Bohanon again this week as the Cowboys are allowing just 14 FPPG to opposing QB1s this season, 12th best mark in the country. Just 64th in Pass Play Success Rate and 71st overall in pass defense nationally so this isn’t a lock-down secondary. R.J. Sneed and Tyquan Thornton are the receivers of note, combining for 53 percent of the team’s total target share. No other receiver has more than six targets on the season. Tight end Ben Sims is the team’s third option in the passing game, and has found the end-zone in each of the last two games with nine targets.
Oklahoma State:
We trusting Spencer Sanders this week? Got the job done against Kansas State with 344 yards through the air and three total touchdowns, but when’s the last time he put together back-to-back performances like that? Baylor is allowing just 15 FPPG to opposing QBs this season, are second in the Big 12 in pass defense (149 YPG) and 32nd in Defensive Pass Play Success Rate. Stats say no, and we have him projected to score just slightly over two touchdowns tonight. What a difference, though, it made for Sanders having his WR1 in Tay Martin back in the lineup last week, posting 9-100-1 on 12 targets. Maybe this is what we could potentially expect from Sanders moving forward now that the WR corps is healthy and the RB position is fully settled behind workhorse Jaylen Warren. The former Utah State transfer had another productive day with 123 yards rushing on 27 attempts, and added 4-81-0 through the air (don’t expect that weekly). Baylor’s run defense is coming off their worst performance of the year, allowing 190 yards and two TDs to Breece Hall, and are 85th in Defensive Rush Play PPA. Will have to monitor pregame the health status of some of the receivers (Jaden Bray). Rashod Owens started opposite Tay Martin last week, finishing with 3-49-0 on five targets. Slot receiver Brennan Presley found the end-zone for the first time last week, but his targets are down now with Martin back. Braydon Johnson is out for the season, and FR Blaine Green looks to be his replacement (2-47-0).
One stat I found here that probably won’t matter in the grand scheme, but found interesting. Baylor has allowed touchdowns to opponents on nine of the 10 trips inside the red-zone this season. Oklahoma State has converted on 13-of-14 trips inside the 20 this season.
Liberty @ UAB
Point-Spread: UAB -2
O/U Total: 47.5
Weather: 74 degrees / 2% rain / 3 mph winds
Liberty:
Interesting that our projections like Malik Willis as the fourth best QB this weekend in CFF despite him traveling on the road to face a stout UAB defense with such a low game total. Stetson Bennett and Michael Pratt both put up over 30 fantasy points against this defense, but the advanced stats paint a different story where UAB is third in coverage grades per PFF, 24th in tackling and a Top 20 defense at limiting big plays via the air and ground. I didn’t see that against Georgia. It should also be noted that these are two teams ranked 120th or lower in plays per minute this season, hence the low game total. Willis has reached 26 fantasy points in every game in 2021, but this UAB secondary is starting to round into form after that disaster against Georgia. Pratt threw for 300 yards and three touchdowns but needed 50 attempts to do so.
Avoid the Liberty backfield with Joshua Mack, T.J. Green and Shedro Louis all getting reps. The Blazers heled North Texas and Tulane to just three yards a carry and both have better running backs than what Liberty throws out there. Credit does go to the offensive line, though, as they’re 29th in Line Yards and Rush Play Success Rate – its just a split backfield with three mouths at running back and Willis dipping into the volume. 6-foot-1 redshirt FR C.J. Daniels has emerged as the team’s possible WR1 of the future with nine catches on 11 targets and three TDs in the last two weeks. Noah Frith and Kevin Shaa look to have fallen out of the starting lineup due to lack of productivity. Slot receiver Demario Douglas gets consistent run even when D.J. Stubbs is in the lineup, but has seen increased volume the last two weeks with 16 of his 28 targets coming in that span. Found the end-zone now in three of four games played. Will need to monitor Stubbs’ health status entering the evening.
UAB:
We know UAB is going to run it on Saturday evening, we just don’t know who exactly is going to see the bulk of the work. The Blazers run 68 percent of the time with DeWayne McBride and Jermaine Brown Jr. who combined for 167 yards and a TD on 32 carries in the win last week over Tulane. The week before against North Texas, it was Brown Jr. who led the way with 16 attempts compared to just nine for McBride. Not sure if game flow had anything to do with that as UAB was up big on the Mean Green. Our projections favor McBride here, but the two players are separate by one fantasy point so both are options in the run-heavy attack. UAB’s offensive line actually hasn’t been that good to date, ranking 94th in line yards, but facing a Liberty defense that just gave up 228 yards and three TDs to the Cuse last week. Tyler Johnston is out indefinitely with an undisclosed injury so we will see Dylan Hopkins getting the nod tonight at quarterback. Tight end Gerrit Prince has emerged as a fantasy superstar the last two weeks with nine receptions on 12 targets with four receiving touchdowns. WR1 Trea Shropshire isn’t seeing the volume we expected before the season with just 11 total targets, but has found the end-zone in three of four games. Liberty has already allowed multiple double-digit fantasy performances to tight ends this season (9.0 FPPG) so Prince will be in our pool of options.
Boston College @ Clemson
Point-Spread: Clem -14.5
O/U Total: 46
Weather: 77 degrees / 0% rain / 3 mph winds
Boston College:
Very little exposure this week to Boston College players taking on a Clemson defense that is holding opponents to just 12 points a game. Pat Garwo was exceptional last week with 175 yards and two touchdowns, but that was against the worst run defense in the country. Not the case with the Tigers who give up just 3.03 yards per carry. BC’s offensive line is middle of the road and not matchup proof like a Baylor for example, ranking 73rd in Line Yards. Dennis Grosel managed just 17.5 fantasy points last week despite the offense scoring 41 points. He’s one of our lowest projected QBs of the week at just 13 fantasy points. At receiver is where it gets mildly interesting. Not really with Zay Flowers at $5,600, but true freshman star-in-the-making Jaden Williams is intriguing at min pricing. Volume is low with just 15 targets, but three touchdowns now in four games. I try and avoid min priced players as we get later in the year, but this is someone that BC is involving in the offense more and more as the season goes along.
Clemson:
Another week, another chance to get burned by D.J. Uiagalelei. Everyone deserves blame here and the hope continues to be that Clemson does something different with the play-calling to get DJU out of the pocket, hit the middle of the field more, and utilize his legs for goodness sakes! BC has been good against the pass so far with more interceptions than touchdowns allowed, and giving up only 190 yards through the air. The Eagles are only 60th in Pass Rate Success, though, because those numbers are skewed with facing Colgate, UMass, Temple and Connor Bazelak in the first month. I think we see improvements from DJU this week, but don’t see a ton of upside here unless Clemson uses him on the ground more. WHICH, they might with the situation at running back with Will Shipley out multiple weeks and Lyn-J Dixon now in the transfer portal. Are we getting 20 touches from Kobe Pace this week? He’ll be backed up by true FR Phil Mafah who’s garnered a ton of praise from the coaching staff and was a 4-star recruit, but I would think this is Pace’s show. Clemson’s offensive line has been under a lot of heat, and deserved, but the advanced stats don’t reflect that as much, ranking 44th in Line Yards and 25th in Stuff Rate. Maybe not up to the normal Clemson standards, but not as bad as the peanut gallery would indicate. If wanting to pair DJU with a receiver, it’s really just Joe Ngata and Justyn Ross right now, combining for 48 percent of the team’s target share. Ross had a team-high 13 targets last week and no other pass-catcher besides that duo had more than two targets.
Western Kentucky @ Michigan State
Point-Spread: MSU -10.5
O/U Total: 66
Weather: 69 degrees / 29% rain / 8 mph winds
Western Kentucky:
What we have all been waiting for, and hope to see more of as the season goes along, with Western Kentucky on a slate! Not exactly the matchup we wanted out of the gate for Bailey Zappe and Co. but they proved last week that they’ll sling it regardless of the opponent, score, what have you. Zappe wound up completing 71 percent of his passes for 365 yards and three touchdowns with zero picks against Indiana, but this will be a tougher task on the road at night against the Spartans. Michigan State does rank 107th in the country, allowing 264 yards a game through the air, but is that due to their secondary or game script? Miami was down big. Northwestern was down big. Coverage grades on PFF paint a better picture as the Spartans rank 24th in the country. Just 70th in Defensive Pass Play Success Rate. This honestly could go either way. Zappe will pile up the yards, but he is going to be VERY popular in both cash and GPP in my opinion because of the excitement having this team on the slate. Tough call.
Who cares about WKU running backs? Lets move on to the fun part of the team with the receivers. Coming into the season, I initially thought this could be the Jerreth Sterns show and we see 7-8 other options in the passing game, but luckily for us, the target tree is fairly concentrated with Sterns, Malachi Corley, Daewood Davis and Mitchell Tinsley garnering 72 percent of the share. Barring a surprise injury that comes out pregame, these really are the only four we need to worry about. Corley will be popular at just $4,900 despite having just two less targets than Sterns on the year. Davis, the former Oregon transfer, is the big play threat on the team with an aDOT of 16.1. Tinsley has been consistent with five targets in each of the three games played. Really can’t go wrong with any of these four if being honest.
Vegas expects nearly 28 points from this offense tonight. I can’t wait to watch.
Michigan State:
This has to be a bounce-back spot for Kenneth Walker right? After a season-low 61 yards against Nebraska, Walker takes on the 120th ranked rush defense in the country. WKU did hold Indiana to under four yards a carry last week, but Stephen Carr had himself a day with 109 yards and two touchdowns on 25 attempts. Advanced metrics don’t support the WKU defense here as the Hilltoppers are 115th in Rush Play Success Rate and 110th in Defensive Line Yards allow. Conversely, Michigan State’s offensive line is 13th in Line Yards and 23rd in Second Level Yards. I tend to get myself into trouble in DFS locking in a player like this in most of my lineups but see Walker as the player I’ll have the most exposure to on the slate.
If Vegas is accurate and WKU is able to keep up in the scoring column with the Spartans, I think we can have some of the MSU passing game as well with Payton Thorne and his top two receivers. The Hilltoppers have allowed just two touchdown passes in three games, but that’s against an FCS opponent, Army and a below average quarterback in Michael Penix Jr. WKU is 65th in Pass Play Success Rate and bottom-half of the country in PFF coverage grades. Another concentrated target tree for MSU with Jalen Nailor, Jayden Reed and Tre Mosley accounting for 67 percent of the share. Reed is way too high for my liking (which means he’s probably the play) but Mosley has six more targets on the year and $2,700 cheaper. Don’t get the rationale there from DK. Mosley is a distant third but did have a season high six receptions on six targets against Nebraska.
Northwestern @ Nebraska
Point-Spread: Neb -11.5
O/U Total: 51.5
Weather: 69 degrees / 11% rain / 7 mph winds
Northwestern:
Not a great deal of interest here on the Northwestern side. Evan Hull was the smash play last weekend, rushing for 216 yards and two touchdowns…against Ohio. His two big performances have come against the Bobcats and Indiana State. Nebraska ranks 70th against the run, but are coming off an impressive performance last weekend, holding Kenneth Walker to his lowest output of the season. There is a slight advantage to the Northwestern side in the battle of the trenches, ranking 35th in Line Yards and 13th in Second Level Yards so Hull might be a decent contrarian play in GPPs. Anthony Tyus appears to be the preferred choice as RB2 over Andrew Clair but really aren’t of much interest to us. Ryan Hilinski threw for just 88 yards last week but was more a product of game situation where NW didn’t need to throw. Did average just 4.4 yards per attempt. Bryce Kirtz looks to be emerging as the team’s WR1 with eight targets in each of the last two games. Stephon Robinson leads all WRs in snaps, and has at least four receptions in three of the four weeks this season.
Nebraska:
Adrian Martinez against the worst rush defense in the Big Ten in Northwestern. In what should be a competitive matchup, it bodes well for Martinez’ value that he’s seen an uptick in rushing attempts the last two games with 17 vs. Oklahoma and 19 last week against Michigan State. Really a favorable matchup for the entire Nebraska rushing attack as Northwestern is ranked 110th in Rush Play Success Rate. With the injury to Gabe Ervin, looks as though Rahmir Johnson has taken hold of the Cornhuskers’ backfield as he rushed for 76 yards on 19 carries against the Spartans. Sevion Morrison and Markese Stepp had just five attempts so it would appear Johnson’s only competition for production would be if Martinez starts vulturing attempts inside the red-zone. Best punt play at running back at just $4,100. Nebraska is 33rd in Line Yards created this season but are under the microscope as they are last in Yards Before Contact per Attempt. Two new starters are expected tonight. FWIW, Morrison did come on late against Michigan State and showed some burst with a rushing TD.
Must monitor the status of Oliver Martin who has not played since Week 0. Slot receiver Samore Toure is averaging six targets per game…enough to justify his $5,800 salary? More attractive if Martin is out because Nebraska really doesn’t have any stable options beyond those two. Tight end Austin Allen has 10 catches on 13 targets in the last two weeks. Zavier Betts and Omar Manning are the punt options as the starters on the outside – it would be Betts who is kicked out of the starting lineup should Martin play. Northwestern secondary is 48th in pass coverage grades on PFF and 57th overall in pass defense.
Indiana @ Penn State
Point-Spread: PSU -12.5
O/U Total: 53.5
Weather: 65 degrees / 0% rain / 3 mph winds
Indiana:
Stephen Carr had a huge day against Western Kentucky last week with 109 yards and two touchdowns. Best part of the performance is the volume where Carr now is averaging 22 carries a game. Nobody else is a factor in the Indiana backfield. Now the downside. Carr’s done next to nothing against Iowa and Cincinnati. Good defenses yes, but that’s what Penn State is, allowing just 3.26 yards per carry on the ground. Indiana’s offensive line remains a sore spot, ranking 106th in Line Yards. Carr is not in play for me. Nor is Michael Penix Jr. and if there is an o/u on interceptions somewhere, take the over this week is my prediction. Was better last week, throwing for 373 yards, but took 54 attempts to get there and didn’t throw a single touchdown. Penn State is second in the country to only Georgia, allowing just 8.7 FPPG this season to opposing QB1s and have intercepted more passes than TDs allowed. Don’t see the same kind of herculean performance we saw a year ago from Penix. Ty Fryfogle is intriguing with his move into the slot following D.J. Matthews’ season-ending injury. Only $5,100, Fryfogle had a season high 10-98-0 on 16 targets in a spot inside that has been very profitable over the years in CFF. Cameron Buckley or Jacolby Hewitt will split time in the vacated LWR spot now that Fryfogle has moved inside. Miles Marshall had a season-high 5-64-0 on eight targets vs. Western Kentucky. Tight end Peyton Hendershot has been more involved the last two weeks with 13 receptions on 14 targets. He also gets a bump up in value with Matthews out.
Penn State:
Credit to close friend of the site, Eric Froton, for mentioning the revenge factor in this contest after last year’s heart-breaking loss to the Hoosiers by mere inches in the final seconds. Per Mr. Froton, lot of motivation on the Nittany Lions’ side at home, at night and undefeated. Credit offensive coordinator Mike Yurcich because he’s got Sean Clifford playing some of the best football of his career, completing 72 percent of his passes with eight touchdowns. Not seeing Clifford run as much this year down from 9.9 carries a game to just 7.7 through the month of September. Middle of the road secondary for Indiana so this should favor Clifford on Saturday with the Hoosier ranking 116th in Pass Play PPA and 60th in Pass Play Success Rate. Clifford’s favorite target, Jahan Dotson, now has a receiving touchdown in every game this season, averaging seven receptions and nine targets a contest. $7,100 salary feels too cheap, though Indiana’s best cover-man, Taiwan Mullen, will be shadowing him. The rest of the secondary isn’t great, which could open up opportunities for Parker Washington (23-301-2 on 28 targets) and KeAndre Lambert-Smith (11-199-1 on 19 targets). The Hoosiers are allowing 8.7 FPPG to opposing TE1s and were unable to cover Iowa’s Sam LaPorta in Week 1. Could me opportunities for Brenton Strange who had a big day against Auburn two weeks ago with 4-71-1. Don’t love anyone in the Penn State running game with Noah Cain not seeing an attempt after the first quarter last week after being labeled as “dinged up.” Nobody has had a great deal of success this year against the Indiana front seven, averaging just 3.81 yards per carry. We’ll see what Cain’s status is closer to game time.