NUMBERS TO KNOW — ACC

A lot of research goes into putting together theCFFsite Draft Guide, but I wanted to take a deeper look into the numbers and advanced data behind some of the teams and players. Ever wonder the reasoning behind one of our rankings or projections? These numbers will tell part of the story.  We hit on all 131 teams below, pinpointing a specific stat or trend that should be relevant to the 2022 college fantasy season. Enjoy! 

—Mike—

	Zay Flowers finished last season averaging 2.27 yards per route run, which was tied for 126th nationally among FBS receivers (min. 20 targets). In games where Phil Jurkovec started last season, that number was 3.21 yards per route run. A healthy Jurkovec should generate better results.
	More like DJU(gly). The Tigers bottomed out in 2021, falling to just 26.3 PPG and 52nd in pace, largely due to the poor performance of DJ Uiagalelei. Clemson ranked 114th in the country in EPA/pass, 107th in passing success rate and threw just 12 total touchdowns as a team. DJU’s 2,246 passing yards last year was the lowest single-season total by a Clemson QB since 2014, when Cole Stout passed for 1,892 yards and freshman Deshaun Watson threw for 1,466 yards and finished with a 14-to-2 TD:INT ratio.
	Offensive coordinator Kevin Johns is developing quite the resume as a play-caller. Memphis averaged over 30 PPG in all three seasons Johns was the offensive coordinator. Johns’ offense also moves at an extremely high clip, ranking in the Top 50 in pace, in each of the last seven years.
	Jordan Travis finished last season as QB45, averaging just over 24 FPPG, but he did not start for FSU until Week 5. Despite only one Top 20 weekly performance among quarterbacks over the last seven weeks, Travis upped his average to 27 FPPG during that span as the starter.
	TE usage should get a significant bump under new offensive coordinator Chip Long, as the position has averaged 72 targets per year over his last eight seasons. Converted receivers to tight ends are always intriguing, and we have a case here with 6-foot-3 and 211-pound Peje Harris making the transition.
	Malik Cunningham’s 20 rushing touchdowns last season were an outlier for a quarterback under head coach Scott Satterfield. While regression is expected, it might not be significant. Cunningham has accounted for 31% or more of the team’s rushing attempts in each of the last two years. Former UL great QB Lamar Jackson followed up his 21 rushing TD season in 2016 with 18 rushing TDs in 2017.
	Going into preseason camp, it is anyone’s guess as to who will emerge as QB Tyler Van Dyke’s top targets. The addition of Josh Gattis as offensive coordinator only makes things a bit more ambiguous, because not one receiver had more than a 25% target share in his offense over the past four seasons.
	When you have a pair of talented backs like Zonovan Knight and Ricky Person Jr., and only average 126 YPG on the ground with 11 total rushing touchdowns, the assumption might be that the offensive line was an issue. Wrong. The Wolfpack were 35th nationally in Line Yards created and now return four starters from last year’s squad. What was the disconnect there?
	Josh Downs was second in the country with a 40.5% target share and was targeted on 30.7% of his routes run, according to Pro Football Focus. Downs caught 101 passes on the year despite constant bracketed coverage due to the lack of receiving options beyond the talent slot receiver.
	New offensive coordinator Frank Cignetti loved throwing to his tight ends during his two-year stint at Boston College, with the Eagles’ TE1 combining for 122 total targets. Gavin Bartholomew caught 28 passes on 29 targets in 2021, and now has a chance to assume the 59 vacated targets with Lucas Krull having graduated. Breakout season forthcoming?
	Running the football became less of a priority for Robert Anae’s offense at Virginia, with the Cavaliers running the ball just 34.1% of the time over the last three seasons, which ranked them 128th nationally, ahead of only air raid teams Western Kentucky and Mississippi St. Anae’s RB1s have averaged just 147 carries in the last six seasons, but mixed in were back-to-back 200+ carry campaigns from Jordan Ellis in 2017-18. Anae’s usage of Sean Tucker will be major CFF storyline this season.
	Brennan’s Armstrong usage rates were unparalleled in 2021. He averaged 45 pass attempts and approximately nine rush attempts per game, and finished the CFF season as QB2. Armstrong’s efficiency was off the charts with a 48.1% success rate. While we have major concerns with the new coaching staff, there might be one beacon of light when it comes to Armstrong’s projection in 2022. The usage rates of Tony Elliott’s QBs over the last eight years (35.7 pass att/g & 9.0 rush att/g) aren’t significantly off of Armstrong’s ’21 numbers.
	New OC Tyler Bowen has a lengthy resume, spending time with Fordham, Maryland, Penn State and the Jacksonville Jaguars in the last eight years, but just once (’16-Fordham) was he the full-time OC. Therefore, projections were a challenge for Virginia Tech, who return just 50% of their offensive production. One noteworthy trend to consider– in the two seasons Bowen held the title of OC at Fordham and Penn State, those teams averaged 75.1 and 78.8 plays per game, respectively. The Hokies averaged just 65.1 plays per game in 2021.
	We really do like Donovan Greene’s talent and fantasy potential, but the historical trends of the system do not favor him finishing as WR2 behind projected WR1 AT Perry. Every year since 2016, the starting slot receiver in Dave Clawson’s system has either finished as the WR1 or WR2, not the “second” outside receiver. Taylor Morin, who operated primarily outside the last two years, moved into the slot this spring to compete with Ke’Shawn Williams, who caught 27 passes with three touchdowns as a freshman.