NUMBERS TO KNOW — CUSA & INDEPENDENTS

	The 49ers have more bye weeks (2) than top 40 projected defenses (1 – South Carolina) on their schedule in 2022.
	Yearly target share average from the WR1 under offensive coordinator David Yost in the last five years? 19.0. That would rank 115th nationally in that span among WR1s. Tyrese Chambers has proven he can do a lot with a little, averaging 23.2 YPC in 2021, but Yost’s system has historically proven he’ll spread the ball around to multiple receivers.
	We wouldn’t call N’Kosi Perry a dual-threat, but he did post 104 attempts last season and will now be in a system under Brent Dearmon that will feature similar utilization. As the OC with Arkansas Tech, Dearmon’s QBs averaged over 118 carries per season, including a 17-TD season from Arsinio Favor in 2015. That is an extreme outlier, not the norm, but any quarterback in CFF that totes the rock 100+ times should provide value to your roster, even if as a rotational option. Perry should, at the very least, replicate his numbers on the ground from last year.
	Smoke Harris remains our projected WR1 for Louisiana Tech, but this could very well change as we get more intel during fall camp. 92% of the snaps taken from the WR1s under new head coach Sonny Cumbie over the last eight years have been outside, not in the slot. That’s the highest percentage in the country in that span. 6-foot-2 Tre Harris could be a name to remember after finishing second on the team in targets last year with 62 as a true freshman. Harris posted 5-77-1 on 12 targets in the season finale vs. Rice.
	Expect a far greater emphasis on throwing the football from the Blue Raiders this season with new offensive coordinator Mitch Stewart. His offenses averaged over 42 passing attempts per game during his time at Murray State and Samford – just 34 att/g the last eight years for MTSU under Stockstill.
	UNT running backs combined to produce the fifth-most fantasy points in CFF last season. DeAndre Torrey departs, but Ikaika Ragsdale returns along with last year’s projected starter Oscar Adaway III, who missed all of last year with an ACL injury. While we may not see one guy replicate Torrey’s numbers, North Texas should be just as good running the football in 2022 with four starters returning on an OL that ranked 29th in Line Yards created.
	Want to know why Rice has won just 11 combined games since Mike Bloomgren took over as head coach four years ago? The “Pound the rock, control the clock” mentality only works if you can actually pound the rock successfully. The Owls were 117th in Rush Play Success Rate and 90th in Line Yards.
	DeWayne McBride’s 52.5 breakaway percentage is the highest number of any UAB RB1 in the last six years – that includes Spencer Brown and Jordan Howard. Perhaps a big year is forthcoming, as McBride averaged 139.4 rushing yards per game over the last seven games of 2021.
	With Justin Garrett graduating and Jacob Cowing transferring to Arizona, exactly 200 targets have been vacated. Our focus is on former JUCO transfer Tyrin Smith, who finished third on the team with 33 receptions on 52 targets, including 18 targets over the final three weeks of the 2021 season. Smith’s 17.3 YPC average was second on the team only to Cowing, and his positional flexibility is intriguing, as the 5-foot-10 junior spent almost equal time both in the slot and on the boundary.
	The Roadrunners were one of three teams – NIU and Western Michigan the others – where the top three receivers accounted for 20% or more of the team’s total receiving yards. Zakhari Franklin gets the headlines, and rightfully so, but don’t discount Joshua Cephas and De’Corian Clark, who combined for 123 receptions.
	Zach Kittley moved on to Texas Tech, but the Hilltoppers look to be banking on schematic continuity as they elevated assistant coach Ben Arbuckle to co-offensive coordinator. That means WKU will chuck it around again in 2022, as the Hilltoppers were 3rd nationally in pass play rate, 2nd in neutral game script pass rate and 3rd in pass play success rate.

	Just once in the last eight years has an Army player finished inside the top 40 in FPPG at their respective position (RB Darnell Woolfolk in 2017).
	In the last three seasons as a full-time offensive coordinator, Aaron Roderick has given his RB1 23.7 carries per game, including 276 rushing attempts to Tyler Allgeier last season. Cal transfer Christopher Brooks won the starting job outright coming out of spring ball and is listed as the clear-cut RB1 on the team’s depth chart.
	Despite running a relatively balanced offensive attack, Nick Charlton does have a line of success producing fantasy-relevant receivers, particularly in 2019-20 when his WR1s, Earnest Edwards and Andre Miller, both averaged 20 FPPG. Eight-year average for Charlton’s WR1 is 14.7 FPPG, and he has coached five of the top 20 all-time leading wide receivers in UMaine history.
	The Liberty backfield has been a fantasy wasteland over the last two years. Not only was there a full-fledged RBBC, with three different running backs seeing considerable carries last year, but QB Malik Willis led the team in rushing the past two seasons and he totaled 27 rushing touchdowns during that span. The committee approach is likely to remain with T.J. Green, Hawaii transfer Dae Dae Hunter and Shedro Louis all present, but there are approximately 140 carries to distribute in our backfield projections with Willis’ departure.
	Offensive coordinator Steve Casula loves incorporating the quarterback into the running game, as his QB1 averaged nearly 17 carries per game in two seasons at Ferris State from 2018-19, whereas his RB1 averaged just 10 carries per game. Projected QB1 at the moment, Zamar Wise, fits the profile of a dual-threat being a former wide receiver. Do we ignore the small sample size of historical evidence and forecast the new coaching staff leaning on their best offensive playmaker RB Ellis Merriweather?
	New offensive coordinator Timothy Beck ran the ball 60.2% of the time at Pittsburgh State between 2014-19. It might behoove us to determine the RB1 here between transfers Ahmonte Watkins (TCU), Jamoni Jones (Northeastern Oklahoma A&M) and holdover O’Maury Samuels.
	Chris Tyree’s ability to break tackles might determine his outlook for 2022 and beyond. In 2020, Tyree averaged 3.06 yards after contact, third behind C’Bo Flemister and Kyren Williams. In 2021, he finished at 2.39 per rush—last behind Audric Estime, Logan Diggs, Williams and Flemister.

NUMBERS TO KNOW — CUSA & INDEPENDENTS

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