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Yes, new offensive coordinator Kevin Barbay fed Lew Nichols every chance he could last year at Central Michigan, but that is not always his preferred approach with running back usage. With a healthy Kobe Lewis in 2019-20, the RB2 accounted for over 30% of the team’s rushing attempts in both years. Barbay will likely split the workload between Camerun Peoples and Nate Noel. |
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The Red Wolves rank fifth nationally in pass attempts per game (45.0) over the last three seasons with Keith Heckendorf as offensive coordinator, including 524 attempts in 2021 which was eighth most in the country. Arkansas State will likely give up a ton of points again in 2022, but that might be a good thing for James Blackman/Te’Vailance Hunt/Jeff Foreman owners. |
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Braydon Bennett remains our projected RB1, but we’re hesitant to put that in stone for a few reasons. Just 14% of Bennett’s carries last season came inside the red zone, compared to 24% for Reese White. 49% of Shermari Jones’ attempts last season occurred between the tackles in 2021 according to Pro Football Focus, while those numbers were 33% for White and just 13% for Bennett. |
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HC Curt Cignetti has consistently leaned on his top two receivers in the passing game, as they’ve accumulated 53.2% of total receptions over the last eight years across multiple schools. Figuring out who is the co-pilot at receiver alongside WR1 Kris Thornton could prove to be noteworthy. |
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The script has been flipped at Georgia Southern with Clay Helton / OC Bryan Ellis now in charge of the offense. After ranking 14th nationally in rushing attempts per game the past three years, the Eagles will now be converting to a scheme that threw the ball around 33 times at Western Kentucky with Ellis calling the plays in 2019-20. |
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The Georgia State run game is vital to the Panthers success on offense, and should be just as good, if not better in 2022, with four starters back, along with leading rushers Tucker Gregg and Jamyest Williams. GSU finished 31st nationally in Rush Play Success Rate, second among Sun Belt teams to Coastal Carolina, and they were ninth in the country in points per quality possession as a result. |
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Assuming new head coach Michael Desormeaux runs a similar scheme to that of Billy Napier – which should be the case since he’s been on staff since 2016 – don’t be surprised if Chris Smith winds up sharing duties with someone else in the Louisiana backfield. RB2s in this system average 29.1% of the market share over the last four seasons, which is the highest rate in the country. |
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We love Rasheen Ali, but he’s another obvious regression candidate for 2022, scoring around 10 touchdowns over his expected output from last season – Charles Huff RB1s averaged close to 13 rushing scores in the seven years prior to last. The Herd were 11th in rushing efficiency and 28th in EPA/rush yet return just one starter along the offensive line and are going through a coordinator change. Plenty of reasons to suggest we won’t see the same production from Ali in 2022. |
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Zack Kuntz’ 27.9% target share in 2021 ranked No. 1 in the country among FBS tight ends. |
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Jalen Tolbert was an animal in 2021 with 82 receptions for 1,474 yards and eight touchdowns. He totaled 48% of the team’s receiving yards, which was the highest share of any WR1 under Major Applewhite in the last seven seasons. That number was just 32.2 leading up to last year. Don’t expect similar numbers from Jalen Wayne in 2022. |
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Two notable stats when researching Southern Miss this offseason: (1) HC Will Hall has produced two Top 50 CFF quarterbacks in the last three seasons, including Tulane’s Justin McMillan in 2019 who combined for 29 total touchdowns. (2) WR1 Jason Brownlee, who has been largely ignored in drafts this summer, was 17th nationally with 30.1% of the team’s target share in 2021. Improved quarterback play is expected this year with Ty Keyes assuming the reins. |
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Layne Hatcher’s addition may improve the Texas State passing game, but there is not a ton of interest in the Bobcats’ receivers. Why? No wideout has accounted more than 19% of the target share in the last two seasons. Meanwhile, the WR4 is not far off from that number at 9.6%. There likely won’t be a target hog here. |
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Major philosophical shift offensively for Troy with Joe Craddock now calling plays. Under Chip Lindsey the last 2.5+ seasons, the Trojans ranked 25th nationally in pass attempts per game (38.0), including over 40 in both 2019-20. Those numbers will drop significantly under Craddock, which is expected to benefit starting running back Kimani Vidal, as Troy will also return four starters along the offensive line. Craddock’s RB1 has averaged 922.4 YPG on 168 rushing attempts in the last five seasons as a play-caller. |
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Caleb Evans finished inside the top 25 among CFF quarterbacks for three-straight seasons between 2017-19, the last time Matt Kubik was the OC for the WarHawks. While about 30 pounds lighter than Evans, projected QB1 Chandler Rogers proved he can handle a heavy workload on the ground last season with 139 rushing attempts. |
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