Week 1 Notes & Observations

The first full week of the 2023 season is 99% in the books, so let’s get into my Notes & Observations.

There were so many games on the slate, that I am not going to reference every single matchup, but I should cover most of the surprises, disappointments, and players to be concerned about.  Remember, your waiver wire strategies can tip the balance of the league, so hopefully these observations assist you in the roster management process.

Week 1 Notes & Observations

Power 5

• We had pegged Syracuse transfer Justin Lamson as Stanford’s starting quarterback, but Ashton Daniels started the opener against Hawaii and finished 25-of-36 for 248 yards and 2 TDs.  We also projected TE Ben Yurosek as a top fantasy target in the Cardinal offense, and he was targeted in the passing game a team-high 11 times Friday night.
• Michigan State RB Nathan Carter opened the year with a 100-yard performance against Central Michigan, and he could be a decent spot-start this year given the matchup.  The Spartans play Richmond, Washington, and Maryland over the next three weeks. 
• Miami RB Henry Parrish (9-90-1) had an impressive opener against Miami (OH), as did true frosh Mark Fletcher (9-76-1).  It would not be a surprise to see Fletcher top the depth chart at some point this season.
• Not the start Utah RB Ja’Quinden Jackson’s fantasy owners wanted, but don’t be ready to jump ship after one game.
• I doubt we see Minnesota with a workhorse back this year.  It seems they will be passing a bit more with Athan Kaliakmanis (44 pass attempts vs. Nebraska).
• Wake Forest made it very easy for us, as only four receivers and one tight end were targeted against Elon (Banks-8, Morin-6, Grimes-4, Williams-4, and Hite-4).
• It was very disappointing for Jalil Farooq owners that he did not register a catch in the Sooners’ 73-0 win over Arkansas State.
• Is Dylan Sampson going to be the running back that the Vols utilize near the goal line?  Against Virginia, he was the only RB to get a carry inside the 4 yard line.  He could have had a fourth rushing TD, but was stuffed on a 1st & Goal carry before QB Joe Milton punched it in on 2nd down.
• I did not think Travis Hunter would play on offense as much as he did against TCU, but after catching 11 passes, he should be on your waiver radar.  Freshman RB Dylan Edwards will get a lot of attention, but I’m still not on board with him yet, as three of his four TDs were catches out of the backfield.  He only had 6 rush attempts.  
• After Week 1, it feels as if Ole Miss doesn’t need Zakhari Franklin, but they did play Mercer.  Tre Harris got off to a fast start (6-133-4).
• I’m hesitant to put much stock into Cincinnati’s performance against Eastern Kentucky, but QB Emory Jones’ numbers were impressive, as was WR Xzavier Henderson’s stat line (7-149-1).
• Texas RB CJ Baxter left Saturday’s game against Rice with an undisclosed injury.  Hold onto those shares of Jonathon Brooks for now.
• Mississippi State RB Jo’Quavious Marks had 19 carries for 127 yards and 2 TDs in the Bulldogs’ 48-7 win over SE Louisiana.  He also added 4 receptions for 59 yards in the passing game.  He should have a high utilization rate this year, but they won’t be playing FCS competition every week, so temper the enthusiasm moving forward.
• One week after rushing for 54 yards and 2 TDs, USC RB Austin Jones only had 19 rushing yards against Nevada, and it was Marshawn Lloyd who led the team with 76 yards and a TD on Saturday.  The USC backfield could present headaches for fantasy owners if there isn’t some consistency in the next week or two.
• So, it seems that Alabama WR JaCorey Brooks did not play in the first half against Middle Tennessee.  I would assume there was some disciplinary action taken.
• Penn State quarterback Drew Allar impressed in the opener, throwing for 329 yards and 3 TDs.  His top targets were Harrison Wallace III (8) and KeAndre Lambert-Smith (6).  Lambert-Smith was the fantasy gem, catching 4 passes for 123 yards and 2 TDs.
• Dominic Richardson dominated the volume share of carries in Baylor’s game against Texas State.  Richardson had 16 carries, while Richard Reese only had seven.
• Freshman RB LJ Martin replaced Aidan Robbins (7-23-0) in BYU’s game against Sam Houston State and finished as the team’s leading rusher with 91 yards on 16 attempts.  The Cougars made a switch in an attempt to spark the offense and it payed off, but now Robbins’ fantasy owners will have to sweat the presence of Martin.
• There still might be some debate on TJ Harden vs. Carson Steele at RB for UCLA, but it feels like Steele to me…no doubt.
• Florida State receivers Keon Coleman and Johnny Wilson are going to be a handful. 
• I have zero shares of Oregon State RB Damien Martinez because I feared the Beavers’ specialization of a goal line personnel group.  On the first drive of the season, the offense marched down to a 1st & goal at the 1 yard line, and QB DJU and RB Deshaun Fenwick punched it in after alternating rushing attempts.  DJU had two 1-yard scoring plunges against San Jose State.  Could Martinez post a 1,200-yard rushing season and not score double-digit TDs?

Group 5

• Hawaii receivers Pofele Ashlock and Steven McBride have caught TD passes in each of the first two games of the year.  Both should be on fantasy rosters going into Week 3.  QB Brayden Schager has started the year with back-to-back 350-yard passing games.
• Bert Emanuel Jr. had 17 rush attempts against Michigan State, which indicates he will have a high utilization rate in the running game when under center, which certainly devalues the Chippewas’ running backs.
• Tulsa QB Braylon Braxton left Thursday’s game against Arkansas-Pine Bluff in the first quarter with an ankle injury after throwing two interceptions.  Backup Cardell Williams completed 13-of-14 passes for 233 yards and three TDs.  Now, Braxton’s owners must sweat out the coming weeks for multiple reasons…1. Will he be healthy enough to play next game?  2. Can he bounce back after throwing two INTs against a inferior opponent?  3.  Will Cardell Williams continue to get snaps in upcoming games?  Jordan Ford (19-110-1) does seem like the clear-cut RB1 for the Golden Hurricane.
• QB Darrren Grainger and RB Marcus Carroll combined for 35 of Georgia State’s 36 rush attempts against Rhode Island.  Carroll will have a big statistical season if that trend continues.
• We had projected Virginia Tech transfer Keshawn King as Western Michigan’s RB1, but the 5-11 and 210-pound redshirt freshman, Jalen Buckley, toted the rock 30 times for 194 yards and a TD in the Broncos’ 35-17 win over St. Francis. 
• Twelve receptions against Iowa for Utah State receiver Terrell Vaughn is a great sign for his fantasy owners moving forward. 
• Fresno State WR Erik Brooks was targeted 12 times and caught 9 passes for 170 yards and 2 TDs in the Bulldogs’ 39-35 win at Purdue.  Jaelen Gill was targeted 8 times and Jalen Moss 7 times.  Junior RB Elijah Gilliam had 20 rushing attempts, while starter Malik Sherrod had eight.
• SMU had 10 players catch at least one pass in the Mustangs’ 38-14 win over Louisiana Tech, and Jordan Kerley only caught one pass for five yards.  After racing out to a 31-0 lead, LJ Johnson Jr. and Jaylan Knighton controlled the game on the ground, combining for 172 rushing yards.
• In the spring, Air Force was using John Lee Eldridge at fullback, but it seems like that move did not stick, and Eldridge has returned to his tailback position, which means he probably will not be a consistent scoring threat.  He’s a hold for me right now, but I wouldn’t hesitate moving off of him for a better option.
• Akron WR Alex Adams with a disappointing start to the season (3-11-0).
• Ryan Burger got the start at quarterback for Appalachian State, but it was Joey Aguilar that came on in relief and completed 11-of-13 passes for 174 yards and 4 TDs in the Mountaineers’ 45-24 win over Gardner-Webb.
• Western Kentucky receiver Malachi Corley was carted off the field in the first quarter of Saturday’s game against USF.  After the game, HC Tyson Helton said it was a chest injury, and it didn’t seem serious.
• After winds were circulating that Gerry Bohanon would get the start at quarterback for USF, it was Byrum Brown who got the nod, and Brown finished with 166 yards and a TD passing, while adding 160 yards and 2 TDs on 25 attempts in the run game.
• Looks as if Miami OH’s WR1 is Gage Larvadain, an FCS transfer.  12 targets against Miami on Saturday.
• Jordan McCloud replaced Alonza Barnett at quarterback in James Madison’ s 38-3 win over Bucknell and completed 7-of-11 passes for 144 yards and 2 TDs.  I’m expecting McCloud to be the starter next week at Virginia.
• It was a promising start for FAU QB Casey Thompson, who threw 5 TD passes in Saturday’s 42-20 win over Monmouth.
• Watching the Texas State-Baylor game, and the throws QB TJ Finley was making, it is hard for me to believe that Malik Hornsby had a chance to win that job.  I don’t think there is any comparison between the two when it comes to throwing the football.  Finley’s top three targets were Joey Hobert (6-105-1), Kole Wilson (5-65-0) and Ashtyn Hawkins (5-58-0).
• Kimani Vidal picked up where he left off in 2022, by rushing for 248 yards in Troy’s season opener against SF Austin.  His 54 receiving yards gave him 302 scrimmage yards for the game.
• Old Dominion QB Grant Wilson threw 2 TD passes in Saturday’s loss at Virginia Tech, and he led the team in rushing with 81 yards on 19 attempts.  Wilson could be a healthy addition if you need some QB depth.