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Hawaii vs. Vanderbilt
Point-Spread: Vandy -17
O/U Total: 55.5
Implied Score: Vandy 36.5 – Hawaii 19
Weather: 89 degrees / 11% rain / 10 mph winds
Hawaii:
Top Play(s) – RB Tylan Hines ($4,700) Undisputedly the best player on the Hawaii offense at a discounted price. What also boosts Hines’ value here is that Hawaii suffered multiple injuries at the position during fall camp and were forced to move a former tight end to running back as a possible reinforcement – that’s how dire the depth is behind Hines. The explosive sophomore rotated in at slot receiver during the spring, so he’s adept at catching the ball out of the backfield and we love PPR points on DraftKings, specifically.
Fade – WR Jalen Walthall ($4,300) I wonder if there was an injury here that is unreported, as it was very surprising to see Walthall listed not only as a backup, but on the third line of the depth chart after a promising freshman year where he finished second on the team in targets. I would still describe the Hawaii depth chart as fluid but Walthall is eliminated from consideration for a week.
Bargain Bin – WR Steven McBride ($3,700) The former Kansas transfer solidified a starting role in fall camp and is probably the team’s top deep threat on the outside. Redshirt FR Pofele Ashlock ($3,000) was a surprising listing as a starter, but reportedly made a few highlight reel plays. The issue – both receivers look to be options on the outside. In the RnS, slot receivers are the preferred options, garnering 100+ targets in a season, dating back to the June Jones and Nick Rolovich days. Between McBride, Ashlock and Panoke (below), I’m unsure as to how those three will line up on Saturday. Expect to see some rotation, though, with Koali Nishigaya ($3,000) and Chuuky Hines ($3,000) who will undoubtedly be mixed in.
Pivot Play – WR Jonah Panoke ($5,400) Panoke is, by far, the most experienced of the WR options for the Warriors, but injuries have plagued him over his career…and there was mention from a recent Hawaii article that he was “still” dealing with the injury bug during fall camp. Still, Panoke is listed as a starter, and has experience in the RnS offense dating back to his high school days. Averaged 5.7 targets per game in 2022.
Best of the Rest – QB Brayden Schager ($6,700) The move to the famed Run-and-Shoot system should boost Schager’s numbers this season, but this is a non-running quarterback who failed to surpass 20 fantasy points in a single game last season. Schager reportedly put on 15 pounds of muscle this offseason and there’s been improvements made to his deep ball passing, but the reports weren’t necessarily glowing otherwise out of fall camp. Interceptions remained an issue and this is a completely revamped WR group so there’s sure to be bumps in the road, particularly against an SEC defense like we have here.
Injury Notes – n/a
Vanderbilt:
Top Play(s) – WR Will Sheppard ($5,000) Similar to Tylan Hines above, Sheppard is far and away Vandy’s top playmaker on offense. And he thrived in games like this against G5 opponents a year ago with seven of his nine touchdowns coming in the first month. Improved QB play is expected this season, so the hope is Sheppard can give us continued production through the entirety of the year. FWIW, Hawaii did add former All-Mountain West selection Cam Stone via the portal from Wyoming and likely gets matched up with Sheppard during this contest.
Fade – TE Justin Ball ($3,700) Bit of a cop out answer here, but tight ends aren’t frequently utilized in this passing game, averaging just 35 targets a season under OC Joey Lynch. Ball is likely to be listed on the top line of the depth chart, but don’t be fooled, he’s a blocker only with seven targets in 12 games in 2022. “Backup” TE Logan Kyle ($3,100), a former receiver, will the move tight end this season and a more valuable option as a pass-catcher.
Bargain Bin – RB Sedrick Alexander ($3,700) The true freshman appeared to be the clear-cut starter coming out of spring ball. Not the case as the vets have since pushed back, namely Patrick Smith ($5,100) who is now perceived to be the starter from those that cover the team. The key takeaway from reading up on the situation, though, is that this will be a RBBC to start the season, and could last until November. That means carries in a potential blowout scenario for Alexander, Smith and redshirt FR Chase Gillespie ($4,600) who make up the top trio.
Pivot Play – QB AJ Swann ($8,500) Good matchup with Hawaii, but don’t see myself (or others) having a ton of exposure to Swann given the depth of quarterbacks available to us on the slate. Promising freshman year taking over as the starter for Mike Wright, throwing 1,300 passing yards and 10 touchdowns. But we’ll need 250+ with at least three touchdowns for Swann to sniff value here. He’s a negative from a running aspect. Swann should see low ownership, though, and the running back room is very unproven entering 2023.
Best of the Rest – WR Jayden McGowan ($6,400) Very curious to see if the beat writer as a good sense of this WR situation, because he made it seem like McGowan’s spot in the starting lineup is a bit shaky. Surprising to see as the now-sophomore finished second on the team in targets as a true freshman. Apparently veteran WR Quincy Skinner ($5,500) is now fully healthy and perhaps usurped McGowan as the WR2.
Injury Notes – n/a
Ohio vs. San Diego State
Point-Spread: SDSU -3.5
O/U Total: 50.5
Implied Score: SDSU 27 – Ohio 23.5
Weather: 75 degrees / 0% rain / 3 mph winds
Ohio:
Top Play(s) – RB Sieh Bangura ($7,200) Tough to choose the top play here with the star-studded Ohio offense, but looking at the SDSU defense, they’re only returning two starters among the front seven, with the defensive line considered the biggest question mark. In a competitive matchup where “maybe” Kurtis Rourke is still not truly 100%, we’ll like our chances here with Bangura hitting 20 rushing attempts, just like he did in each of the final five games to close last year. Volume, volume, volume.
Fade – Starting the Big 3 in one lineup Trying to incorporate a bit more game theory and strategy into the writeups this year. For as good as Rourke, Bangura and Wiglusz are from a fantasy perspective, the game total and implied team total doesn’t suggest shootout here. We absolutely want to incorporate Ohio players in our lineups, but I’d spread them out instead of jamming into one entry.
Bargain Bin – WR Tyler Walton ($3,000) Ohio’s top four receivers last season were the team leaders in targets. James Bostic has now graduated so there is a chance someone emerges as a fourth option that could accumulate 50+ targets in 2023. Our initial guess is 5th year senior Tyler Walton who did post 10 receptions on 19 targets in four games last season before missing the remainder of the year due to injury.
Pivot Play – WR Jacoby Jones ($6,200) The Big 3 will see a ton of ownership, and rightfully so, but Ohio does have a pretty productive fourth option on offense in senior Jacoby Jones who caught at least three passes in each of the last six games. Should see an increase of targets on the outside with James Bostic now graduated, and Jones was second on the team in touchdowns (6) and YPC (17.8). He’ll be the team’s big-play threat.
Best of the Rest – QB Kurtis Rourke ($5,500) Did DraftKings think Rourke would not play this week? His salary suggests as much, but head coach Tim Albin said Rourke will 100% start. Video as recently as two weeks ago displayed Rourke participating in a team scrimmage so we’re assuming he’s g2g. We’ll assume he does more damage with his arm than legs after coming back from a torn ACL that ended his year early in 2022. WR Miles Cross ($5,600) finished second on the team with 68 targets and the highest aDOT (13.8) among the starting receivers. WR Sam Wiglusz ($7,100) remains the top receiving option after finishing last year with 11 TDs and 23% target share. Tight ends Will Kacmarek ($3,500) and Tyler Foster ($3,300) return after combining for 51 targets and four TDs.
Injury Notes – n/a
San Diego State:
Top Play(s) – QB Jalen Mayden ($5,900) The San Diego State offenses we used to know and love are a thing of the past, particularly with OC Ryan Lindley calling the plays. The 42.1% pass rate in 2022 was the second highest mark in the last decade, and those numbers spiked once Jalen Mayden took over as QB1 in October last season. Ohio does bring back both starting corners from a year ago, but this secondary allowed the most YPG through the air in the MAC. Mayden will be working with two new starting WRs this year, which leaves some ambiguity as to who the top option might be, so I’d advise playing Mayden naked instead of pairing with a receiver.
Fade – RB Jaylon Armstead ($3,900) I still maintain Armstead has talent, but not seeing him on the two-deep eliminates him from contention this weekend. The depth chart does reflect it, but a mid-August article stated that Kenan Christon ($5,600) was the “clear-cut No. 1” running back. We’ll mix in some shares of Christon, but RBs are no longer a priority in the San Diego State offensive scheme. No RB had more than 22% volume share last season.
Bargain Bin – TE Mark Redman ($3,500) The most proven pass-catching option returning for SDSU, finishing third on the team last year with 21 receptions on 45 targets. Low upside, but just need one TD to pay off his salary.
Pivot Play – WR Mekhi Shaw ($5,200) We’ve seen randomly over the years an SDSU receiver pop off for 30 fantasy points from time to time. Guessing when that will occur is not a pleasant activity. Shaw finished fourth on the team in targets (44) in 2022 and did have a strong close to the year with 184 yards and three touchdowns in Week’s 11-12. We’re not advising stacking with Mayden, but Shaw would be the choice if you do.
Best of the Rest – WR Josh Nicholson ($4,100) and Phillippe Wesley ($4,600) I’d be completely lying to you the reader if I said I knew a thing about either player, but they’re starters based on the opening depth chart. Do not have more than one SDSU receiving option in any of your lineups.
Injury Notes – n/a
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