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Hawaii vs. Vanderbilt
Point-Spread: Vandy -17
O/U Total: 55.5
Implied Score: Vandy 36.5 – Hawaii 19
Weather: 89 degrees / 11% rain / 10 mph winds
Hawaii:
Top Play(s) – RB Tylan Hines ($4,700) Undisputedly the best player on the Hawaii offense at a discounted price. What also boosts Hines’ value here is that Hawaii suffered multiple injuries at the position during fall camp and were forced to move a former tight end to running back as a possible reinforcement – that’s how dire the depth is behind Hines. The explosive sophomore rotated in at slot receiver during the spring, so he’s adept at catching the ball out of the backfield and we love PPR points on DraftKings, specifically.
Fade – WR Jalen Walthall ($4,300) I wonder if there was an injury here that is unreported, as it was very surprising to see Walthall listed not only as a backup, but on the third line of the depth chart after a promising freshman year where he finished second on the team in targets. I would still describe the Hawaii depth chart as fluid but Walthall is eliminated from consideration for a week.
Bargain Bin – WR Steven McBride ($3,700) The former Kansas transfer solidified a starting role in fall camp and is probably the team’s top deep threat on the outside. Redshirt FR Pofele Ashlock ($3,000) was a surprising listing as a starter, but reportedly made a few highlight reel plays. The issue – both receivers look to be options on the outside. In the RnS, slot receivers are the preferred options, garnering 100+ targets in a season, dating back to the June Jones and Nick Rolovich days. Between McBride, Ashlock and Panoke (below), I’m unsure as to how those three will line up on Saturday. Expect to see some rotation, though, with Koali Nishigaya ($3,000) and Chuuky Hines ($3,000) who will undoubtedly be mixed in.
Pivot Play – WR Jonah Panoke ($5,400) Panoke is, by far, the most experienced of the WR options for the Warriors, but injuries have plagued him over his career…and there was mention from a recent Hawaii article that he was “still” dealing with the injury bug during fall camp. Still, Panoke is listed as a starter, and has experience in the RnS offense dating back to his high school days. Averaged 5.7 targets per game in 2022.
Best of the Rest – QB Brayden Schager ($6,700) The move to the famed Run-and-Shoot system should boost Schager’s numbers this season, but this is a non-running quarterback who failed to surpass 20 fantasy points in a single game last season. Schager reportedly put on 15 pounds of muscle this offseason and there’s been improvements made to his deep ball passing, but the reports weren’t necessarily glowing otherwise out of fall camp. Interceptions remained an issue and this is a completely revamped WR group so there’s sure to be bumps in the road, particularly against an SEC defense like we have here.
Injury Notes – n/a
Vanderbilt:
Top Play(s) – WR Will Sheppard ($5,000) Similar to Tylan Hines above, Sheppard is far and away Vandy’s top playmaker on offense. And he thrived in games like this against G5 opponents a year ago with seven of his nine touchdowns coming in the first month. Improved QB play is expected this season, so the hope is Sheppard can give us continued production through the entirety of the year. FWIW, Hawaii did add former All-Mountain West selection Cam Stone via the portal from Wyoming and likely gets matched up with Sheppard during this contest.
Fade – TE Justin Ball ($3,700) Bit of a cop out answer here, but tight ends aren’t frequently utilized in this passing game, averaging just 35 targets a season under OC Joey Lynch. Ball is likely to be listed on the top line of the depth chart, but don’t be fooled, he’s a blocker only with seven targets in 12 games in 2022. “Backup” TE Logan Kyle ($3,100), a former receiver, will the move tight end this season and a more valuable option as a pass-catcher.
Bargain Bin – RB Sedrick Alexander ($3,700) The true freshman appeared to be the clear-cut starter coming out of spring ball. Not the case as the vets have since pushed back, namely Patrick Smith ($5,100) who is now perceived to be the starter from those that cover the team. The key takeaway from reading up on the situation, though, is that this will be a RBBC to start the season, and could last until November. That means carries in a potential blowout scenario for Alexander, Smith and redshirt FR Chase Gillespie ($4,600) who make up the top trio.
Pivot Play – QB AJ Swann ($8,500) Good matchup with Hawaii, but don’t see myself (or others) having a ton of exposure to Swann given the depth of quarterbacks available to us on the slate. Promising freshman year taking over as the starter for Mike Wright, throwing 1,300 passing yards and 10 touchdowns. But we’ll need 250+ with at least three touchdowns for Swann to sniff value here. He’s a negative from a running aspect. Swann should see low ownership, though, and the running back room is very unproven entering 2023.
Best of the Rest – WR Jayden McGowan ($6,400) Very curious to see if the beat writer as a good sense of this WR situation, because he made it seem like McGowan’s spot in the starting lineup is a bit shaky. Surprising to see as the now-sophomore finished second on the team in targets as a true freshman. Apparently veteran WR Quincy Skinner ($5,500) is now fully healthy and perhaps usurped McGowan as the WR2.
Injury Notes – n/a
Ohio vs. San Diego State
Point-Spread: SDSU -3.5
O/U Total: 50.5
Implied Score: SDSU 27 – Ohio 23.5
Weather: 75 degrees / 0% rain / 3 mph winds
Ohio:
Top Play(s) – RB Sieh Bangura ($7,200) Tough to choose the top play here with the star-studded Ohio offense, but looking at the SDSU defense, they’re only returning two starters among the front seven, with the defensive line considered the biggest question mark. In a competitive matchup where “maybe” Kurtis Rourke is still not truly 100%, we’ll like our chances here with Bangura hitting 20 rushing attempts, just like he did in each of the final five games to close last year. Volume, volume, volume.
Fade – Starting the Big 3 in one lineup Trying to incorporate a bit more game theory and strategy into the writeups this year. For as good as Rourke, Bangura and Wiglusz are from a fantasy perspective, the game total and implied team total doesn’t suggest shootout here. We absolutely want to incorporate Ohio players in our lineups, but I’d spread them out instead of jamming into one entry.
Bargain Bin – WR Tyler Walton ($3,000) Ohio’s top four receivers last season were the team leaders in targets. James Bostic has now graduated so there is a chance someone emerges as a fourth option that could accumulate 50+ targets in 2023. Our initial guess is 5th year senior Tyler Walton who did post 10 receptions on 19 targets in four games last season before missing the remainder of the year due to injury.
Pivot Play – WR Jacoby Jones ($6,200) The Big 3 will see a ton of ownership, and rightfully so, but Ohio does have a pretty productive fourth option on offense in senior Jacoby Jones who caught at least three passes in each of the last six games. Should see an increase of targets on the outside with James Bostic now graduated, and Jones was second on the team in touchdowns (6) and YPC (17.8). He’ll be the team’s big-play threat.
Best of the Rest – QB Kurtis Rourke ($5,500) Did DraftKings think Rourke would not play this week? His salary suggests as much, but head coach Tim Albin said Rourke will 100% start. Video as recently as two weeks ago displayed Rourke participating in a team scrimmage so we’re assuming he’s g2g. We’ll assume he does more damage with his arm than legs after coming back from a torn ACL that ended his year early in 2022. WR Miles Cross ($5,600) finished second on the team with 68 targets and the highest aDOT (13.8) among the starting receivers. WR Sam Wiglusz ($7,100) remains the top receiving option after finishing last year with 11 TDs and 23% target share. Tight ends Will Kacmarek ($3,500) and Tyler Foster ($3,300) return after combining for 51 targets and four TDs.
Injury Notes – n/a
San Diego State:
Top Play(s) – QB Jalen Mayden ($5,900) The San Diego State offenses we used to know and love are a thing of the past, particularly with OC Ryan Lindley calling the plays. The 42.1% pass rate in 2022 was the second highest mark in the last decade, and those numbers spiked once Jalen Mayden took over as QB1 in October last season. Ohio does bring back both starting corners from a year ago, but this secondary allowed the most YPG through the air in the MAC. Mayden will be working with two new starting WRs this year, which leaves some ambiguity as to who the top option might be, so I’d advise playing Mayden naked instead of pairing with a receiver.
Fade – RB Jaylon Armstead ($3,900) I still maintain Armstead has talent, but not seeing him on the two-deep eliminates him from contention this weekend. The depth chart does reflect it, but a mid-August article stated that Kenan Christon ($5,600) was the “clear-cut No. 1” running back. We’ll mix in some shares of Christon, but RBs are no longer a priority in the San Diego State offensive scheme. No RB had more than 22% volume share last season.
Bargain Bin – TE Mark Redman ($3,500) The most proven pass-catching option returning for SDSU, finishing third on the team last year with 21 receptions on 45 targets. Low upside, but just need one TD to pay off his salary.
Pivot Play – WR Mekhi Shaw ($5,200) We’ve seen randomly over the years an SDSU receiver pop off for 30 fantasy points from time to time. Guessing when that will occur is not a pleasant activity. Shaw finished fourth on the team in targets (44) in 2022 and did have a strong close to the year with 184 yards and three touchdowns in Week’s 11-12. We’re not advising stacking with Mayden, but Shaw would be the choice if you do.
Best of the Rest – WR Josh Nicholson ($4,100) and Phillippe Wesley ($4,600) I’d be completely lying to you the reader if I said I knew a thing about either player, but they’re starters based on the opening depth chart. Do not have more than one SDSU receiving option in any of your lineups.
Injury Notes – n/a
San Jose State @ USC
Point-Spread: USC -30.5
O/U Total: 64.5
Implied Score: USC 47.5 – SJSU 17
Weather: 76 degrees / 0% rain / 11 mph winds
San Jose State:
Top Play(s) – QB Chevan Cordeiro ($6,300) I won’t have much exposure at all here given the low team total, plus potentially playing without his top playmaker at receiver, but Cordeiro is far and away the top SJSU option. If choosing to play Cordeiro in spots, I would not stack given the implied score of just 17 points, and you can get away with that as Cordeiro ran for 265 yards and nine TDs in 2022. Just a tough spot and probably look to him in future slates.
Fade – RB Kairee Robinson ($5,900) Low upside running back in a pass-first offense (56%) that will NEED to throw the ball as a massive underdog. I’ll give Robinson two positives here – (1) he garnered 46% volume share last season in the SJSU backfield and (2) was featured in the passing game with 29 targets. Doubt we see Robinson garner more than 15 carries in this spot, as it happened just twice all last season.
Bargain Bin – WR Malikhi Miller ($3,200) Didn’t hear a ton of positive buzz around Miller in the offseason, so I’d look to other WR options for the Spartans, but he would essentially be a starter in the outside if Justin Lockhart should sit.
Pivot Play – WR Nick Nash ($4,500) We officially have WR2 Charles Ross ($4,600) listed as the WR2 here after Lockhart, but there is something intriguing here about Nash, the former quarterback who seems to have made a successful transition to wide receiver. Caught just six passes a year ago, but four came in the bowl game vs. Eastern Michigan, and Nash did find the end-zone. Wouldn’t surprise us if Nash finishes as the WR2 this season, if not higher if Lockhart is out long-term. WR2, on average, in this system generally garners around 19% target share which is a good amount for these salaries.
Best of the Rest – TE Dom Mazotti ($4,700) Tons of potential, but health is always a concern. Scored a touchdown in three of his final four games in 2022 but played in just seven weeks. Tight ends do tend to get featured in this system – remember Derrick Deese and Josh Oliver – but Mazotti likely shares the position with co-starter Sam Olson ($3,100).
Injury Notes – WR Justin Lockhart ($4,800) Unless we get confirmation Lockhart is healthy and playing, he’s probably an avoid at this point. Not practicing in the last week, was observed with a cast on his hand by the media and wasn’t even at practice as of this past weekend.
USC:
Top Play(s) – QB Caleb Williams ($9,900) Not a lot of hard-hitting analysis for this one. He’s the highest projected player on the slate. You do not need to stack him with any other USC player as they’ll spread it around. You need 40 fantasy points to pay off his salary, not 30. Williams scored just 24 and 31 fantasy points, respectively, last season against Rice and Fresno State.
Fade – WR Mario Williams ($7,200) If you’re here just for DFS content and don’t take in the CFF side of things, here’s why Williams is a fade for us as the second-highest salary among USC receivers. No more than 16% target share for the WR1 under Lincoln Riley over the last three years. And Williams might not be in the top starting rotation here, depending on Tahj Washington’s ($6,800) status. A ton of mouths to feed in the slot for the Trojans with Williams, Washington, incoming 5-star Zachariah Branch ($4,700) and converted running back Raleek Brown ($4,300) who will all factor in.
Bargain Bin – WR Duce Robinson ($3,600) A hybrid WR/TE, Robinson is a 5-star true freshman who is the top backup on the outside and should garner plenty of opportunity reps in a likely blowout scenario. Don’t have to pay top dollar here either, unlike Quentin Joyner ($6,700) who likely won’t see more than five rushing attempts.
Pivot Play – Outside Receivers We’re not in love with the USC receivers this year given they’ll rotate 5-6 options at WR every given week, but there is far less competition outside where the Trojans have two solidified options in Dorian Singer ($7,700) and Brenden Rice ($6,200). Less rotation to deal with, and outside receivers have been the WR1 in Lincoln Riley’s offensive system in six of the last nine seasons.
Best of the Rest – RB Austin Jones ($7,800) and Marshawn Lloyd ($7,400) Austin Jones sits atop the depth chart, but we’re anticipating this is more of a seniority listing in that Jones is a veteran and has been with the team. Lloyd was seen in pictures of USC practices running plenty with the first-string offensive line and will see ample time with the starters, especially early. In the two non-conference games last season, we had two drastically different outcomes. Against Fresno State, USC’s top two RBs each topped 100 yards rushing. Against Rice in the opener, no running back had more than six carries in the blowout. Lot of variance in a situation where we don’t know who the coaches “truly” favor.
Injury Notes – WR Tahj Washington ($6,800) We’ll continue to check reporting here, but Washington did miss some time the past few weeks of fall camp. Severity not likely to be serious at all, but probably not worth the risk at this pricing, in this kind of matchup.
Florida International vs. Louisiana Tech
Point-Spread: La Tech -10.5
O/U Total: 58.5
Implied Score: La Tech 34.5 – FIU 24
Weather: 94 degrees / 15% rain / 10 mph winds
FIU:
Top Play(s) – WR Kris Mitchell ($5,900) Gone are FIU’s top playmakers from a year ago in the passing game with Tyrese Chambers and Rivaldo Fairweather off to P5 destinations, leaving behind over 130 vacated targets. Under OC David Yost, you’re not seeing any WR with a high target share (never more than 22% in any season as a play-caller), so I wouldn’t prioritize anyone from this group, particularly being so new. But Mitchell is the team’s big play-threat, averaging over 14 YPC in 2022 and the highest aDOT on the team.
Fade – RB Kejon Owens ($5,800) We didn’t fade any running backs last season against this Louisiana Tech defense that wound up finishing 130th in yards allowed on the ground. To their credit, the defensive staff tried this offseason to shore up the weakness, adding 12 (!) transfers to both the D-line and LB units. There’s just a ton of RB options on this slate and Owens isn’t cheap at $5.8k. Did we mention, btw, that Owens is also the backup to Shomari Lawrence ($6,200)? FIU is also a double-digit underdog so the game script may not be in the favor of any FIU running back. What “could” work in his favor, RBs are frequently utilized in this system, where the RB1 averages 33 receptions per season.
Bargain Bin – TE Josiah Miamen ($3,500) The former Iowa transfer finished fifth on the team last season in both receptions (27) and targets (39), and now inherits a starting role that leaves behind 48 vacated targets at the position with Rivaldo Fairweather now at Auburn. The TE1 under offensive coordinator David Yost has averaged 52 targets per season over the last eight years, so it’s a spot that is frequently involved in the passing scheme.
Pivot Play – QB Grayson James ($6,200) These are two talent-deficient defenses and being a double-digit underdog should lead to a positive game-script for James, a former Elite 11 recruit. Wildly inefficient a year ago, James did post four games of 29 fantasy points or more so there is some potential here for a quarterback that averaged 33 pass att/g and can be mobile.
Best of the Rest – Take your choice among the remaining starters here at WR. Jalen Bracey ($5,300) will start inside, but the slot receiver has finished as the WR1 just once in the last eight seasons. Low upside. Dean Patterson ($4,300) will start opposite Bracey and did close last year with 100 yards on 10 targets in the finale. Memphis transfer Eric Rivers ($3,000) was named by multiple sites as having a massive fall camp. Just don’t know much about him, being that he converted from defense.
Injury Notes – RB Lexington Joseph ($3,000) Last year’s leading returning rusher tore his ACL in the spring and is OFY.
Louisiana Tech:
Top Play(s) – QB Hank Bachmeier ($5,800) With the injuries in the La. Tech backfield – more on that later – we’re anticipating Sonny Cumbie and the Bulldogs throwing even more than the 53% rate they did a year ago. The former Boise State transfer will be the centerpiece of the offense and brings together a wealth of experience with 6,600 passing yards and 41 touchdowns in his career. A revival of his college career is expected from us, getting away from the toxic situation Bachmeier had at Boise State. FIU returns three starters in the secondary but was a group that finished 108th in yards all through the air in 2022.
Fade – WR De’Coldest Crawford ($3,200) Fans of college football will remember this name and does have the recruiting cache as a former 4-star commit at Nebraska. And while Crawford did make plays this fall camp, it was consistently with the second team. Likely no better than the fourth option at best.
Bargain Bin – WR Kyle Maxwell ($3,200) The battle for the outside WR position opposite Cyrus Allen is down to Maxwell and Julien Lewis ($4,900), with the former getting most reps with the 1s during practice reports. WR3s under Cumbie generally garner around 12% target share over the last decade, and we expect the focus will be on the top two WRs again this year with Allen/Harris. Dart throw only.
Pivot Play – WR Cyrus Allen ($5,700) Will be very curious to see how ownership plays out here between Allen and WR Smoke Harris ($6,600), given that the latter is the far more proven commodity of the two players. Those that play CFF and sub to our site would see our prediction in Allen finishing as the team’s WR1, as has been the case under Cumbie in eight of the last nine seasons. In reaching out with the team’s beat writer, they did agree with our sentiment that Harris could lead the team in receptions while Allen finishing as the team’s leader in TD receptions with his big-play ability. Both are viable options in a stacking situation, but we foresee Allen being owned less.
Best of the Rest – TE Nate Jones ($3,700) La Tech doesn’t employ a traditional tight end, so Jones is more like a 220-pound fourth wideout in the starting lineup. Minimal production last year with 16 receptions on 20 targets and a single touchdown, but did post a season-high seven targets in the season finale. Griffin Hebert’s numbers from a year ago are the best comparison for a future outlook here. WR Tru Edwards ($3,000) was running with the first-team offense at portions of fall camp but was missing from practices the last few days open to media. Will double check his status before game-time.
Injury Notes – RB Marquis Crosby ($5,700) and RB Tyre Shelton ($4,200) Crosby is confirmed out this week, while Shelton hasn’t been seen at practice in a few days after running with the 1s. TBD on Shelton’s status, but not someone we need to prioritize at all in our lineups should he be available, given his 3.8 YPC career average. Junior Charvis Thornton ($5,400) would step in to start should Shelton also be unavailable.
UMass vs. New Mexico State
Point-Spread: NMSU -7.5
O/U Total: 44.5
Implied Score: NMSU 26 – UMass 18.5
Weather: 94 degrees / 7% rain / 11 mph winds
UMass:
Top Play(s) – QB Taisun Phommachanh ($4,800) A former Clemson commit and 3-star prospect, Phommachanh will play in an offense under OC Steve Casula that loves to run its quarterback. And that’s about the only value you’ll get from a UMass QB as the Minutemen threw all of four total touchdown passes in 2022. Last year’s starter Gino Campiotti accumulated 102 rushing attempts in 10 games. Back at the Division III level, Casula’s QB1 ran the ball 282 times in a 15-game season. Phommachanh ran for over 1,200 yards in his high school career.
Fade – Everyone else. Short and sweet here. UMass running backs combined to score the second fewest fantasy points in all of college football last season. The leading receiver – George Johnson – averaged just 6.2 FPPG. Tremendously risky playing anyone on the UMass roster, particularly the skill positions.
New Mexico State:
Top Play(s) – QB Diego Pavia ($7,400) Long-term, we’re skeptical about Pavia’s fantasy relevance against better opponents, but he made minced meat of the lower-level teams on the schedule, averaging 26.9 FPPG in the last six games. Three of those performances were against UMass, Valpo and Lamar. Low and behold, who is Pavia’s first opponent?
Fade – Everyone else. I hate to be redundant, and we have posted the New Mexico State depth chart in our CFFSite discord if you’re interested in seeing who the starters are. Fact of the matter is that NMSU threw the ball at a 40% clip in 2022, one of the lowest in the country last season, and no WR had more than 18 percent target share. Low upside, very low floor if guessing incorrect. RB1 averages around 130 carries per season, and we saw a split at the end of the year between Jamoni Jones ($4,800) and Star Thomas ($5,600). Add in former TCU transfer Monte Watkins ($3,400) and a mobile Diego Pavia, and the leading rusher could have between 8-10 carries, tops.
Navy vs. Notre Dame
Point-Spread: ND -20.5
O/U Total: 48.5
Implied Score: ND 34.5 – Navy 14
Weather: 63 degrees / 77% rain / 14 mph winds
Navy:
I’ll use this section as a friendly reminder that write-ups for the season will only cover DraftKings slates due to timing constraints. With this being Week 0, we’ll hit on the two additional games on the FD slate, though not much to say about the first team up in the Midshipmen. Two quarterbacks are expected to play in Tai Lavatai ($6,000) and Blake Horvath ($4,300), with the latter actually listed first on the depth chart. Horvath is cheap enough where “maybe” you toss him in a lineup or two for multi-entry players. Navy hired a new offensive coordinator in Grant Chesnut from Kennesaw State who will employ a similar spread option attack that we’ve seen from Navy the last few decades, as Chesnut’s offenses ran the ball 82% of the time. In that time, the quarterback position accounted for 27% of the volume share with three 200-plus carry seasons. Whomever we see come out with the first-team offense could garner some looks in lineups. We don’t have a single player projected in double-digit fantasy points outside of the QB1, so steer clear otherwise.
Notre Dame:
Top Play(s) – RB Audric Estime ($9,500) Path is clear for Audric Estime to have a monster year with some of the moves that transpired in the offseason. Logan Diggs transferred out to LSU. Another backup, Chris Tyree, moved to slot receiver. Primary backup, Jadarian Price, is a talented player but also coming off a season-long injury that prevented him from seeing the field in 2022. New OC Gerad Parker doesn’t have a long history of calling plays, but when he did at West Virginia in 2020-21, his RB1 accounted for over 50% volume share.
Fade – Backup RBs As we noted above, there’s proof that Notre Dame’s new OC will lean on his RB1 generally. There is also some vagueness as to who the RB2 is behind Estime with Jadarian Price, Devyn Ford and Gi’Bran Payne all in the mix. This is a large spread, so I’m sure we’ll see some work for the backups, but who that surefire “next man up” is unknown right now. I wouldn’t even bother there in a slower-paced game.
Bargain Bin – WR Jaden Greathouse ($4,600) Probably the fourth or fifth option in the passing game to start the season, but the 4-star freshman is certain to make his way up the depth chart throughout the year as some of the veteran pass-catchers were underwhelming in fall camp. Greathouse was a spring sensation with 11 receptions in the spring scrimmage. He’ll rotate in the mix on Saturday.
Pivot Play – WR Jayden Thomas ($6,900) FD messed up the pricing here at WR for Notre Dame as Thomas established himself as the clear-cut WR1 during fall camp. Week 0/1 can give us some surprises, and players step up with the lights on, but all reporting indicated Thomas as being the top dog here in the rotation.
Best of the Rest – QB Sam Hartman ($11,400) You’re likely spending up for Caleb Williams here so I don’t think its feasible to fit both of the top priced QBs in on the FD slate. And we might want to slow play this with the Notre Dame passing game given Hartman is playing in a new system, will be throwing to a brand new WR room with limited experience, and in an offense that will likely throw the ball far less than he did at Wake Forest. TE Mitchell Evans ($5,400) solidified his standing in fall camp as the TE1, but don’t anticipate Michael Mayer-like numbers in this new scheme. Parker’s tight ends at West Virginia avg. just 1.9 receptions per game. WR Tobias Merriweather ($7,500) is a talented player that hasn’t lived up to expectations and has fallen to the second option at receiver behind Thomas. Generally looking at around 5.2 targets per game for the WR2 in this system.
Injury Notes – n/a
UTEP vs. Jacksonville State
Point-Spread: UTEP -1.5
O/U Total: 53.5
Implied Score: UTEP 27.5 – JX State 26
Weather: 94 degrees / 15% rain / 10 mph winds
UTEP:
Top Play(s) – WR Tyrin Smith ($9,000) After a brief stint at Texas A&M, Smith transferred back to the Miners in the summer, and all of CFF players rejoiced as he won’t fade away into obscurity at the P5 level. 33% or more target share for the UTEP WR1 in each of the last three seasons, and 100 targets is all but guaranteed for Smith in 2023 as the team’s top playmaker.
Fade – Tight ends Marcus Vinson ($4,400) did get some positive buzz during fall camp, but tight ends are rarely featured in this passing scheme. Just 13 targets per season on average from the TE1 over the last nine-year span.
Bargain Bin – WR Kelly Akharaiyi ($5,600) A former JUCO transfer, Akharaiyi struggled with the playbook and drops in his debut season at the FBS level. Those mishaps are gone from all indications out of fall camp, and Akharaiyi has solidified himself as the WR2 behind Smith. This offense has generally been centered around the top two wideouts. We mentioned the heavy target share above for Smith. Well, WR2 has averaged 26% target share over the last three seasons.
Pivot Play – RB Deion Hankins ($7,800) Three starters are back on the UTEP offensive line who should pave the way for Hankins who really emerged down the stretch last season, averaging over four yards per carry in each of the last nine games. The Miners did add some depth in the transfer portal over the offseason from the JUCO level, but do lose Ronald Awatt to graduation who led the team in rushing attempts in 2022. Three of last year’s top six tacklers are gone from the Jacksonville State defense.
Best of the Rest – QB Gavin Hardison ($8,200) Feels like Gavin Hardison has been in school for a decade. As a non-runner, Hardison is really a last-ditch play at the QB position that would need to throw at least three TDs to hit value. Two starters are back in the secondary from a Jacksonville State defense that allowed 216 YPG last season. Rich Rod called that group the thinnest position on the defense in the spring.
Injury Notes – n/a
Jacksonville State:
Top Play(s) – QB Zion Webb ($8,600) Newbies to the FBS level, the Gamecocks will at least have experience at the two most important spots on the field – QB and head coach (Rich Rodriguez). Seventh year senior Zion Webb returns as a starter after averaging 24.4 FPPG last season with 23 total touchdowns. 58% of the team’s offensive production is back from a year ago, and QBs under Rich Rod are typically hot-spot for fantasy relevance. QB1s have averaged 113 rushing attempts in the last seven seasons under Rodriguez as a play-caller.
Fade – WR Sterling Galban ($6,800) I do believe Galban is the WR1 here, but averaged just 7.3 FPPG last year. Jacksonville State only threw the ball 31.5% of the time last season so I probably wouldn’t invest heavily in any of the Jax State pass-catchers.
Bargain Bin – WR Quinton Lane ($4,000) This is Lane’s third or fourth stop now on his college journey, while also splitting time at both receiver and cornerback in his career. Lane brings plenty of size to the position at 6-foot-4 and was listed as a surprise starter on the Jacksonville State depth chart. Last season’s WR2 finished with just 30 targets, so this won’t be a high volume spot, but need just a few catches to pay off value here.
Pivot Play – TE Sean Brown ($5,200) A former 3-star prospect transfer from Tennessee, Brown finished third on the team in targets (25) and second in receptions (18) last season in just 10 games. A red-zone threat at 6-foot-5, Brown brings speed to the position as well, catching an 80-yard touchdown in the team’s spring game.
Best of the Rest – RB Ron Wiggins ($5,700) Wiggins sits atop the depth chart ahead of former Louisiana-Monroe transfer Malik Jackson ($5,300) though looking back over the years, there isn’t a huge difference between RB1 and RB2 in this offense, especially with the QB1 also vulturing carries. Looking at a 25% and 18% split between the top two starters at RB. Jacksonville State only threw the ball 31.5% of the time last season.
Injury Notes – RB Anwar Lewis ($7,000) Projected by some to be the RB1 for JSU this season, Lewis is dealing with injury and just started fully practicing with the team this past Sunday. Status remains up in the air, but we’ll assume he needs a bit more ramp-up time in order to play. Would avoid here as JSU does have capable backfield depth.
