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Elon vs. Wake Forest
Point-Spread: n/a
O/U Total: n/a
Implied Score: n/a
Weather: 69 degrees / 11% rain / 14 mph winds
Elon:
Top Play(s) – WR Chandler Brayboy ($3,000) Leading returning receiver with 28 receptions and three touchdowns on 40 targets. Also led the team in drops (4). Doesn’t appear to be a high-volume passing attack, throwing the ball just 41.6% of the time, but when they do, its downfield. In 2022, Brayboy posted a 17.6 YPC average with a 13.8 aDOT.
Fade – QB Matthew Downing ($5,700) I will say that everyone is priced at a point to where you can consider rostering some Elon components, including Downing who does have FBS experience as a two-time transfer from TCU and Louisiana Tech. I also look to last year where Elon’s QB1 went for 333 yards and four total touchdowns against Vanderbilt. Wake Forest returns three of four starters in the secondary and a ton of depth at safety, so the secondary should be a strength of the defense.
Bargain Bin – RB Jalen Hampton ($3,700) Hampton returns as the RB1 after rushing for over 1,000 yards last season and Elon does return four of five starters along the offensive line. The one downside is that Hampton is rarely featured in the passing game with just 10 targets in 11 games. Wake Forest returns just one starter on the offensive line, and depth at defensive tackle is questionable.
Pivot Play – WR Jordan Bonner ($4,000) Probably won’t see a ton of ownership given that he’s $1k more than Brayboy but does have experience with 20 receptions on 28 targets in 2022, and is a former Purdue transfer so there is some talent there. If team websites are to be trusted, Bonner appears to be the WR2 behind Brayboy.
Best of the Rest – TE Johncarlos Miller II ($3,000) Finished fifth on the team last season with 33 targets, and tied for third with three receiving touchdowns. Earned preseason All-CAA honorable mention. Elon doesn’t feature the RB much in the passing game, so WRs/TEs should dominate the target distribution.
Injury Notes – n/a
Wake Forest:
Top Play(s) – QB Mitch Griffis ($8,300) Mixed bag of debut appearances from Dave Clawson’s last three starting quarterbacks, but we do know Griffis has talent from our brief glimpse a year ago, throwing for 288 yards and three touchdowns vs. VMI. All preseason reports were positive on Griffis, and we at least know he can perform against FCS competition. No shortage of weapons for him to work with either at the WR positions.
Fade – RB Justice Ellison ($5,700) I wouldn’t call Ellison a complete fade given the matchup but being underweight on exposure won’t be an issue. RB1s in this system average just 12.1 attempts per game and WF does lose three starting OL from last year and their best blocking tight end. In a season preview article by the top WF beat writer, I thought it was also notable that he mentioned backup Demond Claiborne first over Ellison.
Bargain Bin – WR Wesley Grimes ($3,200) With Donavon Green likely out for the season, Grimes steps into a starting spot opposite Jahmal Banks. While the depth chart doesn’t reflect it, WF runs a ton of four wide receiver sets, so Grimes will see the field plenty, kicking Taylor Morin inside to the slot at times. Grimes was featured heavily in preseason practice reports as a standout performer.
Pivot Play – RB Demond Claiborne ($3,500) Risk comes with this play as we hinted above, but should WF go up in this matchup by double-digits, expect the sophomore running back to get some run here. Claiborne has apparently improved his pass-blocking ability and some feel he’s more talented than Ellison, the starter. Clawson generally splits his backfield workload anyways, with the RB2 averaging 10.4 carries per game.
Best of the Rest – WRs. Jahmal Banks is the clear-cut WR1 for the Deacons and we’re anticipating a 100-target, double-digit touchdown season from the 6-foot-4 junior. Rave reviews coming out of camp. KeShawn Williams and Taylor Morin will get extensive run as starters, but go check out their game logs from a year ago. Hit or miss usually. Wake Forest, despite losing Greene, has a ton of depth at the wide receiver position with Horatio Fields and Walker Merrill likely entering the mix as well. Banks is the top dog and Grimes is the value play. Likely to see less ownership with Williams/Morin.
Injury Notes – WR Donavon Greene ($3,100) Likely out for the season.
Kent State vs. Central Florida
Point-Spread: UCF -36.5
O/U Total: 58.5
Implied Score: UCF 47.5 – Kent St 11
Weather: 83 degrees / 34% rain / 11 mph winds
Kent St:
Top Play(s) – WR Jack Coulson ($3,400) Going through the motions here because we’re realistically not selecting anyone from a team with an implied total of just 11 points. Coulson, was a surprise starter on the initial depth chart, ahead of sophomore Trell Harris who flashed at times last season. Just one reception a year ago in five games. Again, to re-emphasize, we’re not rostering any Kent State players this week.
Fade – QB Matt Alaimo ($8,700) Zero exposure at this pricing in your lineups. Alaimo is a former 3-star recruit and Purdue transfer who won the starting job but will be playing on a Kent State team that is in a full-fledged rebuild. The Flashes have just 17% returning production from last year’s team with at least 15 players seeking new destinations in the offseason.
Bargain Bin – RB Gavin Garcia ($3,000) Former Minnesota transfer Ky Thomas would have been the starter here, but it appears he’s not been granted a waiver yet by the NCAA – similar to UNC WR Tez Walker. With Thomas out of the picture, Garcia gets the starting nod. Kent State returns just two starters along the offensive line and won’t have a positive game script for rushing yards.
Pivot Play – Rostering any Kent State player.
Best of the Rest – WR Luke Floriea ($3,900) and Treymon Echols ($3,000) Just three combined catches between these two listed starters in 2022. With no established pecking order here because of the lack of experience, probably not worth any risk of exposure, but they’re cheap at least.
Injury Notes – n/a
UCF:
Top Play(s) – RB RJ Harvey ($5,200) Last year’s leading rusher Isaiah Bowser departs, and in steps RJ Harvey into a starting role that has been very profitable over the years under head coach Gus Malzahn. There was talk of improved depth in the UCF backfield this offseason, and some questioned if Harvey would be THE guy in 2023. Depth chart doesn’t have any ORs, so we’re assuming this is his job. RB1 under Malzahn has averaged 16 FPPG over the last nine seasons.
Fade – WR Corey Gammage ($5,100) One of the more disappointing transfer landing spots of the offseason. Gammage went from the Marshall WR1, to the Purdue WR1, and now lands as the UCF WR4. Fine for a high-volume passing offense, but UCF threw the ball just 42% of the time last season.
Bargain Bin – RB Johnny Richardson ($3,300) We looked at DeMarkcus Bowman’s salary here first thinking he would be cheaper than Richardson, but this cost is much lower than we expected. The 5-foot-7 senior is never going to be a workhorse, but has a career 6.8 YPC average and is a dynamo in the passing game. With over a 30-point spread, expect to see rotation in what appears to be a deep UCF backfield.
Pivot Play – QB John Rhys Plumlee ($10,600) Endless options at the RB position in this slate make it feasible to spend up for JRP. And if last year was any indication during blowout situations, we probably should attempt to have some exposure even at this pricing. In UCF’s three wins of at least 30+ points last year, JRP combined for 15 total touchdowns, including seven in a victory over Temple.
Best of the Rest – WRs. Of those 15 touchdowns we mentioned above from JRP, nine were of the passing variety, so someone is going to valuable here, if not two of the options. The issue is that UCF improved their depth greatly in the offseason, adding Trent Whittemore (Florida) and the aforementioned Corey Gammage. This is not a high-volume passing offense and last year’s leading target-getter accounted for just 21% target share. Sprinkle some in of Javon Baker, Kobe Hudson and Xavier Townsend in your lineups, but probably wouldn’t advise rostering two receivers in the same one.
Injury Notes – n/a
Rhode Island vs. Georgia State
Point-Spread: n/a
O/U Total: n/a
Implied Score: n/a
Weather: 80 degrees / 10% rain / 7 mph winds
Rhode Isalnd:
Top Play(s) – QB Kasim Hill ($5,400) Admittedly tough to compose this when Vegas has yet to put out lines for this game (as of writing) to get implied team totals, but Georgia State loses a lot on the defensive side of the ball, including some of their best playmakers in the secondary. Hill is a former Maryland transfer and dual threat, entering this season with two of his starting receivers also back in the fold. Rhode Island threw the ball 48% of the time last season, so a bit more balanced than some of the other FCS teams on this slate.
Fade – RB Gabe Sloat ($3,300) Rhode Island does return its three best offensive linemen from last season but will be starting a junior running back in Sloat with 37 career carries to his name.
Bargain Bin – WR Kahtero Summers ($3,900) Summers was the second-leading target getter (80) a year ago and finished first in touchdowns (6). The team overall has a high YPC average, but Summers was tops on the team in said category (16.4) and a 13.9 aDOT.
Pivot Play – WR Darius Savedge ($3,800) Savedge is a former Old Dominion transfer that finished fourth in targets (33) and routes run in just 10 games in 2022. Did catch a touchdown last season against Pittsburgh.
Best of the Rest – WR John Erby ($3,500) Erby takes over as the starting slot receiver for last year’s leading receiver Ed Lee. Looked back the last three years to see if the slot receiver was typically the profitable spot in this passing scheme but does not appear to be the case. The outside receivers were the WR1 in both 2020 and 2021.
Injury Notes – n/a
Georgia State:
Top Play(s) – QB Darren Grainger ($7,400) Finished 18th last season in fantasy points scored among CFB quarterbacks, a lot of which is due to his dual-threat ability, averaging double-digit carries per game. What makes Grainger intriguing here are the losses the Georgia State roster took over the offseason. Three starting linemen and top two running backs all graduate, and the Panthers rank 121st in rushing defensive production percentage. Should Rhode Island keep this competitive, which could happen given the losses on defense, Grainger sets up nicely here.
Fade – Multiple Georgia State WRs Someone will pop among the Georgia State receivers, but the likelihood two players do in the same lineup is not high. The Panthers ranked 6th nationally in rush play percentage a year ago (63.4%).
Bargain Bin – WR Robert Lewis ($4,000) Lewis was not great last season for Georgia State, leading the team in drops and less than 50% target conversion rate. But this program has been successful over the years with developing strong WR1 play (Jamari Thrash, Sam Pinckney, Penny Hart). Lewis was listed atop the depth chart and the best bet to be the WR1.
Pivot Play – RB KZ Adams ($4,000) We’ll start by saying that Marcus Carroll ($4,500) is the clear-cut RB1 for Georgia State, but Adams is a very intriguing player. Will never garner a heavy workload at his size, but has been the spring game darling the last two seasons, rushing for 152 yards and four touchdowns back in April. Explosive player. We’ve seen a split backfield the last few seasons under HC Shawn Elliott where the RB2 has hit 20% volume share each of the last three years. 10+ touches is within the range of outcomes for Adams.
Best of the Rest – WR Ja’Cyais Credle ($3,900) Credle finished second in routes run and targets last season (46) in 11 games. Looking at just 5.1 targets per game from the WR2 in this system, and no certainty that is Credle with so much turnover in the receiver room for Georgia State. If looking to pair with Grainger, we’d just look to the safe bet in Lewis.
Injury Notes – n/a
St. Francis vs. Western Michigan
Point-Spread: n/a
O/U Total: n/a
Implied Score: n/a
Weather: 71 degrees / 0% rain / 7 mph winds
Doesn’t appear either team (as of Tuesday writing this) will be releasing depth charts soon, and there is too much uncertainty around the Western Michigan roster for us to advise playing anyone here. Down the road, this could be a fun offense under new head coach Lance Taylor and offensive coordinator Billy Cosh. Fast pace and energy has been the message from the new staff, which mirrors what we’ve seen from Cosh’s offenses in the past at Richmond and VMI. Both teams averaged more than 76 offensive plays per game, which would’ve ranked inside the Top 20 among FBS teams last season. This also tends to be a pass-first offense, as Richmond and VMI passed the ball more than 40 times per game in 2020 and 2022. Not surprisingly, wide receiver appears to be the primary position to target in CFF where Cosh’s last three WR1s averaged 28.2, 14.2 and 16.6 FPPG, respectively.
With that in mind, maybe you sprinkle in WR Jehlani Galloway ($6,000) but he’s not cheap. Good to file this information away now for future seasons, but 2023 will without a doubt be a rebuild with a roster that ranks 118th nationally in returning production. RB Keyshawn King ($7,500) being the most expensive running back on a DFS Slate was not on my bingo card. 75% of WMU’s offensive line production from last season is back, but with little idea of how the Broncos’ offense will operate, that is a risk.
On the St. Francis side, the Red Flashes played two quarterbacks in 2022, return four of the top five rushers from last season, and lose its two best playmakers at receiver. WR Dawson Snyder ($3,000) is likely the lone name of note here, catching 38 passes for 752 yards and four touchdowns last year. Just a 56% target conversion rate, but that’s because he rarely catches anything around the line of scrimmage. 19.8 YPC average and 15.6 aDOT that was tops on the team.
NC State vs. Connecticut
Point-Spread: NC St -15
O/U Total: 47.5
Implied Score: NC St 31.5 – UConn 16
Weather: 67 degrees / 0% rain / 9 mph winds
NC State:
Top Play(s) – QB Brennan Armstrong ($8,900) See the Bargain Bin section for another top play on the Wolfpack side, but of course we’re going with Armstrong here. To anyone just getting back into CFB, you may be wondering why we’re suggesting Armstrong after the disastrous season he had a year ago at UVA. Two words – Robert Anae. His former OC at Virginia reunites with Armstrong at NC State where this combination had major success in 2020-21 where Armstrong averaged 32.1 and 43.2 FPPG, respectively. Some questions with the NC State receivers he’ll be working with, but Armstrong is perfectly suited to run this offensive scheme. Volume, volume, volume.
Fade – RB Jordan Houston ($6,400) If you played DFS last season, you know that we’ll almost never suggest playing Houston in a lineup unless it’s a two-game slate. RB1s get a massive downgrade with Anae calling plays, and Houston will split reps with backup sophomore RB Michael Allen ($5,100). Between 2019-2021 at Virginia, Anae’s RB1 averaged nine rushing attempts per game.
Bargain Bin – WR Kevin Concepcion ($3,000) Big misprice here, but understandable in that Concepcion is just a 3-star true freshman. The reviews were loud and consistent in both the spring and summer for Concepcion, with one beat writer saying there is a good chance the true freshman leads the team in receptions by end of year. Extremely high outlook both this week and going forward as he was listed on the top line of the depth chart.
Pivot Play – TE Terrell Timmons ($5,700) Doubt we see high ownership with Timmons given his pricing, in comparison with some of the other NC State weapons. But according to at least one beat writer, they’ve been insistent on a breakout sophomore year from Timmons who caught a TD last season in one of just two games played and had a long 60+ yard score in the team’s spring game.
Best of the Rest – Pass-Catchers. To be honest, Concepcion is probably the only receiver we feel confident in for Thursday as there is expected to be a heavy rotation at the position to sort out the best players. Keyon Lesane ($4,700) and Porter Rooks ($5,000) will start but neither player has done much in their careers at the collegiate level. Rice transfer Bradley Rozner ($3,200) is intriguing at price, and Anae has had major success with tall, rangy options like him in the passing game. Rozner just arrived in the summer, so he might still need time to learn the playbook. Tight ends can be profitable in Anae’s scheme – Tony Poljan and Jelani Woods average double-digit fantasy points as TE1s – but we’re not certain who “that guy” is. Trent Pennix ($3,600) is an oft-injured senior with potential that has never been achieved. True freshman Juice Vereen ($3,000) has been compared to Oronde Gadsden (Syracuse) from a size and build standpoint at 6-foot-4, 214 pounds.
Injury Notes – n/a
UConn:
Top Play(s) – WR Cameron Ross ($4,500) Strong likelihood I don’t roster any UConn players on this slate, but Ross would be the one I’d look towards if I did. Been a while since Ross had a huge impact for the Huskies but was tremendous as a true freshman in 2019 with 60 receptions and four touchdowns. Last year’s WR1 for UConn accounted for 28% target share and the WR1 in this system has averaged just over 15 FPPG in the last nine seasons. A major risk, but Ross has the most upside of anyone.
Fade – QB Joe Fagano ($5,100) The appeal here is that Fagano is cheap and has a history with OC Nick Charlton from their time at Maine. To his credit, Fagano had a tremendous 25-4 TD-INT ratio between 2019-2020 under Charlton, averaging 26.2 FPPG in their first season together. The implied team total here doesn’t suggest a shootout, though, and UConn threw the ball just 34% of the time in 2022.
Bargain Bin – RB DeVontae Houston ($3,700) Houston gets the starting nod over last year’s RB1 Victor Rosa ($3,500), a surprise to most given how Rosa closed last season with seven rushing TDs over the final four games. From an explosion/speed standpoint, it wasn’t particularly close as Houston averaged 7.2 YPA and a 55.5 breakaway percentage which was highest on the team. Having said that, we’re expecting a committee approach from the Huskies yet again as no running back has even sniffed 200 carries in a season under Nick Charlton. Brian Brewton figures to be in the mix, as does Jalen Mitchell, a Louisville transfer.
Pivot Play – WR Geordon Porter ($4,000) Talented player that was stuck on an abysmal New Mexico team last year, finishing with 22 receptions and a team-high two touchdowns in just eight games. Now on his third stop after initially committing to Arizona State many moons ago, Porter can offer speed and big-play ability on the outside, averaging 15.6 YPC for his career.
Best of the Rest – TE Justin Joly ($3,100) Promising sophomore tight end with some athleticism, but the position has never been heavily utilized under Charlton, averaging just 21 receptions per season over the last four years. I have zero clue who Brett Buckman ($4,200) is, admittedly, but he won a job over last year’s starter Kevens Clercius in fall camp.
Injury Notes – n/a
Nebraska vs. Minnesota
Point-Spread: Minn -7.5
O/U Total: 44.5
Implied Score: Minn 26 – Neb 18.5
Weather: 79 degrees / 3% rain / 18 mph winds
Nebraska:
Top Play(s) – QB Jeff Sims ($7,100) Nebraska doesn’t project highly in this matchup so I’ll have limited exposure to the Cornhuskers here with an implied total under three scores. Still, you have an extreme athlete at the quarterback position in Sims at a reasonable pricing. New HC Matt Rhule also has an extensive history of utilizing his QB1s in the running game as well, where former Baylor QB Charlie Brewer averaged over 11 rushing att/g in 2018-19. Not sure what to expect passing-wise as Sims has proven to be an inaccurate thrower with a questionable receiving group, but we get a nice floor here as a runner.
Fade – RB Anthony Grant ($4,900) There is potential for Anthony Grant to still have a role in the offense, but fumbling issues have dropped him to third on the depth chart. This isn’t an overly favorable matchup for the Nebraska running game.
Bargain Bin – TE Thomas Fidone II ($3,000) Nebraska will employ a pro-style offense under Matt Rhule, featuring a number of two-tight end sets. The injury bug has dampered Fidone’s career to this point, but he’s Nebraska’s top receiving threat at the position, especially with Arik Gilbert likely not being on the roster this season with his recent arrest.
Pivot Play – WR Billy Kemp ($4,900) Projections aren’t overly kind to Billy Kemp, and he’s unlikely to give you any explosive plays in the passing game with a career YPC average under 10 yards. But the senior slot-man is the most trusted option in the Nebraska passing game, and 5-6 receptions is well within the range of outcomes. Rhule’s WR1 has averaged 63 receptions per season over the last six years at the collegiate level.
Best of the Rest – WR Alex Bullock ($4,500) A former walk-on, there were rave reviews coming out of fall camp in regards to Bullock. Rhule had this comment about Bullock’s fall performance – “You just can’t deny what he’s done. One-handed catches. Acrobatic catches.” Color me intrigued. RB Gabe Ervin ($5,600) has been the starter at running back all throughout the spring, but he doesn’t project well here, sitting at just 62 rushing yards, and the prop market has him at a lower number. A surplus of better RB options on this slate.
Injury Notes – n/a
Minnesota:
Top Play(s) – RB Sean Tyler ($7,300) Let’s set the record straight right off the bat – do not expect Mo Ibrahim-like numbers from any running back at Minnesota this year. But again, the messaging has been consistent all offseason in that Tyler, the Western Michigan transfer is the undisputed starter in the Minnesota backfield. 15 carries a game is the expectation for Tyler this season. Despite being our top play here, we’re not force-feeding Tyler into our lineups. Minnesota has turnover along the offensive line and Nebraska is 25th in returning defensive production. Albeit the Cornhuskers were 125th in defensive success rate in 2022, so is a lot of returning production a good thing?
Fade – WR Chris Autman-Bell ($5,000) Don’t care here that CAB was listed as a starter on the opening depth chart. Minnesota added multiple transfers via the portal this offseason and is coming off a severe knee injury in late September last year. I’d peg CAB as the 5th or 6th option right now in the Gophers passing game.
Bargain Bin – WR Elijah Spencer ($4,200) The former Charlotte transfer was exceptional in his first two years with the 49ers, racking up 85 receptions and 15 touchdowns. That translated to his debut at the P5 level where he had double-digit receptions in the Minnesota spring game. With CAB potentially not at 100%, expect Spencer to be heavily involved in the WR rotation.
Pivot Play – QB Athan Kaliakmanis ($8,000) The Greek Rifle is a significant upgrade at the QB position over last year’s starter Tanner Morgan, and we’ve spoken about the improvements at receiver with Spencer and Western Michigan transfer Corey Crooms ($4,800) added to the mix. Kaliakmanis isn’t a zero on the ground either, hitting 20 or more rushing yards in four games as a part-time starter in 2022. I’d imagine he’ll have very low ownership given the stigma surrounding Minnesota QBs.
Best of the Rest – RB Zach Evans ($4,800) I’ll be curious to see how the carry distribution plays out on Thursday. We know Tyler will see 12-15 carries. Who gets reps behind him? Does Bryce Williams ($3,800) get first dibs because of seniority in the program? Evans is a former 4-star recruit who hopefully overtakes Williams on the depth chart. TE Brevyn Spann-Ford ($3,600) is the most talented pass-catcher on the team that led the Gophers in targets (60) in 2022 but envision his opportunities getting squeezed now with the depth at receiver.
Injury Notes – n/a
Florida vs. Utah
Point-Spread: Utah -5.5
O/U Total: 46
Implied Score: Utah 26 – Fla 20
Weather: 88 degrees / 17% rain / 14 mph winds
Florida:
Top Play(s) – RB Trevor Etienne ($5,000) Struggled with this one, and yes I know our projection has Montrell Johnson ($6,700) as the highest-projected running back from the Gators. Upside and pricing here favor Etienne who some view as the more talented back of the two options. What we know with certainty is that HC Billy Napier will always share the workload between his top two backs, and the difference in volume share (33% / 25%) wasn’t drastic a year ago. Also benefitting the Gators backfield is that RB3 Cameron Carroll was lost for the season due to injury last weekend, so expect the combo of Etienne/Johnson to garner a heavy workload between the two.
Fade – QB Graham Mertz ($7,600) Everyone has principles in life that they abide to. One every person should follow is “never roster Graham Mertz in a CFF or DFS lineup.” FWIW, the initial prop market set his line at 184.5 passing yards. And he’s a net negative as a runner.
Bargain Bin – WR Kahleil Jackson ($3,000) Can’t say I know much about Jackson, who recorded just two receptions last year. But he’s listed as a starter on the initial depth chart and provides great size at 6-foot-3. We hit on above about how Napier spreads the ball around amongst his wideouts. Last year’s WR3 hit 17% target share, where Pearsall only accounted for 19%. Not a ton of discrepancy in that number, yet a huge, discounted pricing here.
Pivot Play – WR Ricky Pearsall ($6,600) The Gators enter 2023 with one known commodity at receiver in Ricky Pearsall who led the team with 34 receptions on 59 targets and a 19.7 YPC. A combined 10 receptions from the other starting Florida wideouts in 2022, all of which belonged to Caleb Douglas ($4,500). The Gators threw the ball just 43% of the time last season, and Napier typically spreads the ball around amongst 5-6 different receivers dating back to his days at Louisiana.
Best of the Rest – n/a. We wouldn’t advise playing anyone not listed above. The tight ends aren’t featured much in this passing scheme.
Injury Notes – RB Cameron Carroll ($3,100) Lost for the season due to injury.
Utah:
Top Play(s) – RB Ja’Quinden Jackson ($6,500) My favorite player to draft during the college fantasy football season who I believe is in line for a monster year. Last year was a blip on the radar with plenty of off-the-field issues for Tavion Thomas. Take away last season and OC Andy Ludwig’s RB1 averages over 220 carries and 21.1 FPPG over the last eight years. Any offseason article you read on Jackson; the wordage used by the Utah beat writers was very consistent – “workhorse.” Big year incoming for Jackson.
Fade – QBs. Hard pass. Cam Rising is unlikely to play. Bryson Barnes will start from most accounts, but redshirt freshman Nate Johnson has been making a push towards QB1 as well. Sounds like we could see multiple QBs. Not to mention Florida’s secondary is the strength of the defense.
Bargain Bin – TE Thomas Yassmin ($3,400) Injury news is tough to come by from a weekly basis with Pac-12 teams, with Kyle Whittingham being at the top of the (s)hit list when it comes to that nonsense. Reporting from the last two weeks, though, suggested that TE1 Brant Kuithe was progressing, but very questionable for the opening week. While a player of his caliber is always needed, Utah has a sensational co-starter in Thomas Yassmin who finished second on the team in touchdowns (6) and averaged over 22 YPC. Even if Kuithe did play, the Utes have shown the ability over the years to support two productive tight ends in their passing scheme.
Pivot Play – RB Micah Bernard ($6,100) Probably too pricy for my tastes, but with Rising likely out, this could be a *very* run-heavy approach from the Utes on Thursday. 10+ carries and 4-5 targets in the passing game is a reasonable expectation for Bernard who finished third on the team last season in targets (48).
Best of the Rest – WR Room. No Cam Rising means very little interest in the Utah pass-catchers, especially with the increased depth the transfer portal provided, bringing in Mycah Pittman (Florida State) and Emery Simmons (Indiana). Devaughn Vele ($7,100) returns as the leading receiver with 22% target share from last season, but rarely performed up to expectations a year ago. Increased depth should limit his production even more.
Injury Notes – With this being the opening game of the season, we’ll likely find out whether Cam Rising or Brant Kuithe will play on Thursday. We’re betting no and not even considering them in this matchup.
South Dakota vs. Missouri
Point-Spread: n/a
O/U Total: n/a
Implied Score: n/a
Weather: 74 degrees / 0% rain / 8 mph winds
South Dakota:
Eight starters on offense but is that a good thing from a team that finished 3-8 and averaged just 16.3 PPG. Last season against Kansas State in the opener, they were shut out 34-0. RB Travis Theis ($3,300) returns as starter at running back with over 1,600 rushing yards and 15 TDs in his career, and may not have to share carries with Shomari Lawrence transferring over to FIU (we saw what he did in the opener in Week 0 vs. Louisiana Tech. QB Aidan Bouman ($5,800) started the final four games last season, compiling a 8-1 TD-INT ratio, but is a net negative runner. WR Carter Bell ($3,700) is the team’s leading returning wideout with 22 receptions on 50 targets – not great. As you can see with this short recap, we don’t expect much from this offense against what is expected to be one of the better statistical defenses in the SEC that is 29th in returning production and 27th in defensive success rate in 2022.
Missouri:
Top Play(s) – WR Luther Burden ($6,800) A notable offseason move that went under the radar to most was Missouri’s hiring of Kirby Moore as OC away from Fresno State. As a result, the staff felt it best to move 5-star talent Luther Burden into the slot to exploit matchups. At Fresno, in the two years that Jalen Cropper played in the slot, he averaged over 20 FPPG, averaging close to 10 targets per game. That is the expectation for Burden in 2023, provide he get adequate quarterback play.
Fade – QBs. This could burn us here fading Brady Cook ($7,900), the presumed starter and very good runner at the quarterback position. But HC Eli Drinkwitz has maintained that both Cook and Sam Horn ($5,400) will play on Thursday. That is enough for us to stay away given the uncertainty.
Bargain Bin – WR Mekhi Miller ($3,900) With Burden’s shift to the slot, that should push Mookie Cooper out of the starting lineup. Insert Miller opposite Wease on the outside, and the sophomore was targeted six times (minimal yardage) in the bowl game last year vs. Wake Forest. I wouldn’t advise this play, though, without the official depth chart.
Pivot Play – RB Cody Schrader ($7,000) A notable quote this offseason from Missouri’s RB coach in that he promised Missouri will have a 1,000-yard rusher in 2023, and Schrader is the presumed starter despite no official depth chart…yet (as of Tuesday). Moore’s offenses also feature more opportunities in the passing game for running backs with increases the RB1 value here. Nathaniel Peat ($5,600) is back this season and his advanced metrics were better than Schrader’s so we’re about 80% certain that Schrader is “the” guy.
Best of the Rest – WR Theo Wease ($5,500) Wease was an instant fade for us the last few years at Oklahoma, but he appears to be the WR2 coming out of fall camp behind Burden. And that’s not an insignificant development as Moore’s WR2 hit 20% target share in two of the last three years. You’re looking at around 7.3 targets a game there.
Injury Notes – n/a
Arkansas Pine Bluff vs. Tulsa
Point-Spread: n/a
O/U Total: n/a
Implied Score: n/a
Weather: 87 degrees / 0% rain / 8 mph winds
Arkansas Pine Bluff:
No depth chart given from the 3-8 squad from a year ago, so we really can only go on past production here. I’d say we’re safe to ignore any quarterbacks here given APB threw all of seven touchdowns a season ago. That essentially eliminates WRs from contention in my book, though leading receiver Chrysten Cochran ($3,700) is back in the fold. 51% target conversion rate and low aDOT (9.9) means little interest. Last year’s leading rusher is now graduated, and in 2021, Arkansas Pine-Bluff split the backfield three ways. Simply put, without a depth chart here, we’re avoiding this entirely.
Tulsa:
Top Play(s) – RB Braylin Presley ($4,600) Tough choice here, but we’re giving the former Oklahoma State transfer the nod here given his pricing and some injury news (more below). 16.2 projection for a wide receiver listed at running back on DK is a tremendous value at $4.6k in what should be a high-volume passing attack under new head coach Kevin Wilson. If Malachai Jones misses the contest like we expect, Presley should function as the WR1 here.
Fade – TE Ethan Hall ($3,200) During Wilson’s time as the play-caller at Indiana, his top TE1 in three seasons averaged just 5.1 FPPG. Hall has just 20 receptions in his four-year career with the Hurricane. In addition, Wilson stated in his presser that freshman Luke McGary is likely to start on Thursday.
Bargain Bin – WR Marquis Shoulders ($3,300) What’s funny about the Tulsa depth chart is that the two receivers who were reportedly standing out in practices are not even listed as starters. One being Jones who we mentioned. The second is Nick Rempert who is listed as a backup to Shoulders. I would imagine that means Shoulders had a strong close to fall camp. On average, the WR2 in this system gets around 6.8 targets per game. Your guess is as good as mine if the WR2 here is Shoulders or Devan Williams ($3,000) but they’re cheap.
Pivot Play – QB Braylon Braxton ($9,500) When Wilson pulled Braxton out of the transfer portal, it was a strong sign of what the offensive mind thought of the sophomore QB he was inheriting. 35 fantasy points scored in each of the last two games in 2022. The two words of caution here with Braxton. Three of the top four receivers from last season are gone, and the fourth is unlikely to play. Secondly, rumors coming out of the spring were that the Tulsa passing game was not functioning to the head coach’s liking. Braxton was awesome at the end of 2022, but new scheme and not a ton of returning production could mean growing pains.
Best of the Rest – RB Jordan Ford ($5,300) Kevin Wilson has a strong track record of RB1 production, with seven 1,000-yard rushers in the last nine years. The Golden Hurricane also return four starting offensive linemen from last season – though the group did underperform their expectations. I’d suspect Ford to have less than 5% ownership in most contests, but also not strongly advising this play considering Tulsa’s leading rusher a year ago had all of 729 yards on the ground.
Injury Notes – WR Malachai Jones ($4,700) The anticipated WR1 for Tulsa was not listed on the opening two-deep. Reading Twitter comments, Jones did suffer an injury during fall ball, but the writer confirmed it is not expected to be a long-term deal. I’d avoid here unless we get confirmation he’s full go.
North Carolina A&T vs. UAB
Point-Spread: n/a
O/U Total: n/a
Implied Score: n/a
Weather: 79 degrees / 14% rain / 6 mph winds
NC A&T:
For as much as UAB lost on offense, it’s not all that dissimilar from the defensive side where the Blazers are 121st in returning production. New HC Trent Dilfer filled in the gaps via the portal, but that sort of turnover usually results in a drop-off in performance. That said, North Carolina A&T is the least appealing team on the slate from a fantasy perspective, bringing in a brand-new coaching staff, and losing several playmakers to the portal, including Virginia Tech’s Bhayshul Tuten and Cincinnati’s Sterling Berkhalter. In essence, the Aggies are starting over.
UAB:
Top Play(s) – RB Jermaine Brown Jr. ($6,200) Major question marks abound with the UAB offense in 2023 under Trent Dilfer as head coach and a first-time offensive coordinator who has never called plays at the collegiate level. We have no reference points. In addition, the Blazers have the least amount of experience in the country returning along the offensive line. So this could get messy. Have to imagine with so much “new” with the UAB offense that they’ll lean on the proven commodities, one of which being senior Jermaine Brown Jr. who proved late last year he can handle a heavy workload. 20+ carries in each of the final two games.
Fade – WRs. There was a depth chart, but a ton of new pieces with multiple transfers coming in from P5 locations, and two of last year’s starters in Samario Rudolph and TJ Jones were listed as backups. A ton of uncertainty, along with the limited reference points as to which WR alignments get targeted most in this passing scheme. I tend to stick with proven commodities or high-volume passing offense – none of which apply to UAB.
Bargain Bin – RB Isaiah Jacobs ($4,100) The former Maryland transfer and brother to NFL RB Josh Jacobs ascended the depth chart in fall camp and could potentially challenge Jermaine Brown for the RB1 role at some point. He fits the size profile of a workhorse at 220 lbs. We don’t have a great grasp of the offensive scheme as mentioned above, so we’ll expect UAB to lean on the strength of the roster (RBs) coming out of the gate.
Pivot Play – QB Jacob Zeno ($6,100) There will never be a day that I tout starting Jacob Zeno in a DFS lineup, but the fact of the matter is that he’s got a cheap price tag with the ability to run. You don’t have to be good at football to be a decent fantasy option. A 21.5-point projection at $6.1k isn’t the worst play in the world. Zeno did have a 332-yard passing performance last season against UTSA so he’s at least somewhat capable.
Best of the Rest – WR Tejuan Palmer ($4,600) We did say to fade UAB receivers, and still maintain that idea, but IF you chose one, Palmer would be the selection. Second on the team last year in targets (52) and no OR designation on the depth chart. His spot is one of few that seem to be solidified.
Injury Notes – n/a
Southern Utah vs. Arizona State
Point-Spread: n/a
O/U Total: n/a
Implied Score: n/a
Weather: 95 degrees / 41% rain / 11 mph winds
Southern Utah:
The matchup to watch here is with the passing game as the key components are back for the Thunderbirds with QB Justin Miller ($6,000) and top two receivers with WR Isaiah Wooden ($3,900) and WR Tim Patrick ($4,000). The Arizona State defense ranks 72nd in returning production from last season, but were below average against the pass, ranking 75th in defensive success rate. Even worse against the run – 125th in success rate and 108th in explosiveness, but Southern Utah divides up the carries between four different rushers. Doesn’t help our cause. Wooden and Patrick combined for 34% of the team’s total target share in 2022.
Arizona State:
Top Play(s) – TE Jaylin Conyers ($4,100) Since the start of the spring until today, Conyers has been the best pass-catcher in practices on the Arizona State team. Repeated touchdowns in practices during spring ball, and Conyers did nothing to slow down in fall camp from all accounts. He’s the one constant right now in the Arizona State passing game. Look at his game logs to close 2022 – six receptions or more in four of the last five games with five touchdowns.
Fade – WR Elijah Badger ($7,800) Badger is suspended for the first half of this contest because of a targeting penalty in the finale of last season. He’ll get reps in the second half with this being a new coaching staff, new scheme, etc. to get acclimated, but the game could be out of hand at that point. How much does this staff risk their WR1 in that scenario?
Bargain Bin – n/a
Pivot Play – WR Xavier Guillory ($6,700) With Badger out of the lineup for the first half, I’d expect Idaho State transfer Idaho Guillory to act as the de facto WR1 as his spot is solidified in the starting lineup. Based on Monday’s practice reports, it sounds as though Melquan Stovall and Giovanni Sanders are splitting reps at the first-team slot position with former Texas transfer Troy Omeire and Andre Johnson at the other outside position. Guillory was an All-Big Sky performer last season with 52 receptions in 2022.
Best of the Rest – RBs. Cameron Skattebo and DeCarlos Brooks shared first-team reps on Monday, a common theme for not only this offseason but looking back at the history of new head coach Kenny Dillingham. Just 29% volume share on average for the RB1, and like we saw last year when coordinating the Oregon offense, Dillingham will feature a second running back often. In the last two years, Dillingham’s RB1 and RB2 both surpassed 20+ targets in those seasons so some added value in PPR scoring formats potentially. Right now we have a 22.1-point projection for true freshman Jaden Rashada ($9,800) who will make his first career start. His $9.8k price tag + that projection probably take him out of the equation for me. That said, Dillingham might quietly be developing a reputation as a QB whisperer. Seven rushing touchdowns from his last four QB1s, while his starting QB rushed for over 500 yards in each of the last three years. Rashada isn’t Lamar Jackson, but he can move.
Injury Notes – WR Jordyn Tyson ($4,900) and QB Drew Pyne ($7,800) will not play on Thursday.
