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Louisville vs. NC State
Point-Spread: UL -3.5
O/U Total: 55.5
Implied Score: UL 29.5 – NC St 26
Weather: 71 degrees / 13% rain / 11 mph winds
Louisville:
Top Play(s) – WR Jamari Thrash ($6,600) If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. We’re going to the Jamari Thrash play yet again until it fails us, now scoring 18 or more fantasy points in every game this season and accounting for 25% of the team’s target share. NC State has now allowed a 100-yard receiver in three out of its first four games after Virginia’s Malik Washington went for 10-170-2 last week.
Fade – WR Ahmari Huggins-Bruce ($4,800) Prove a second time, AHB. Dead wrong last week in fading Huggins-Bruce as he went for over 100 receiving yards and two scores in the win over Boston College. What’s deceiving about that stat line, though, is that Huggins-Bruce only ran six routes on 19 of 66 offensive snaps. This is not sustainable production.
Bargain Bin – WR Chris Bell ($3,500) Don’t follow Louisville closely enough to know the inner workings of their wide receiver rotations, but notable that Bell played triple the number of offensive snaps that previous starter Jimmy Calloway did last week. Has there not been enough production opposite Jamari Thrash on the outside and Jeff Brohm is trying different combinations?
Pivot Play – WR Kevin Coleman ($4,400) Production hasn’t really been there, but I do find it notable that Coleman is the listed starter in the slot over Huggins-Bruce and played almost double the snaps AHB did last week against BC.
Best of the Rest – RB Jawhar Jordan ($7,000) Three-straight 100-yard rushing performances for Jordan who has accounted now for 48% of the rushing attempts that have gone to Louisville running backs. Wasn’t sure in the preseason that Jordan could handle such a workload at 185 pounds, but you can see why its tough to take him off the field, averaging nearly 10 yards per attempt. UConn’s Victor Rosa and Notre Dame’s Audric Estime both scored over 24 fantasy points in their matchups with NC State. The pass D of the Wolfpack has been only marginally better, allowing 24 FPPG to P5 quarterbacks. High floor play only with QB Jack Plummer ($8,500) who we only have at a 20-point projection in a competitive matchup that should go back and forth a bit.
Injury Notes – n/a
NC State:
Top Play(s) – QB Brennan Armstrong ($8,700) We know Armstrong is a good play this week with a 25-point projection with *very* questionable quarterback situations elsewhere on the slate. But how good a play is he? Well, two QBs with very similar quarterbacking styles in Thomas Castellanos and Haynes King combined for 60 fantasy points against this Louisville defense who is 113th in EPA per pass play. Not to mention the rushing floor Armstrong provides and should increase as NC State is down a starting running back now.
Fade – WR Keyon Lesane ($5,400) AND RB Michael Allen ($5,800) If Lesane was $3.4k, we would still be advising to fade him. So you know what we think with his inflated $5.4k salary for absolutely no reason at all. There’s a reason we bet the unders on his player props every week he’s listed. Allen takes over the RB1 roll with Jordan Houston transferring. OC Robert Anae usually only gives his RB1s-10-12 carries a game, splitting with the RB2 and quarterback. That already disinterests us. Now add in that Allen gives way to RB Delbert Mimms ($5,700) who has become a goal-line specialist for the Wolfpack with four rushing scores.
Bargain Bin – WR Bradley Rozner ($3,700) I’m just ready for this NC State coaching staff to play its best players at the wide receiver position. The Rice transfer is playing considerably fewer snaps than Lesane, Porter Rooks and Julian Gray who have a combined 24 receptions between them. Not getting it done. Rozner, meanwhile, has found the end-zone twice in the last three games.
Pivot Play – n/a.
Best of the Rest – WR KC Concepcion ($6,400) The true freshman has been the one constant in the NC State wide receiver room, and finally had his breakout performance last week with 116 yards and two scores on nine targets. Thought to be just a possession receiver, it was nice to see them target Concepcion down the field more with a 13.7 aDOT in the Virginia matchup. Hopefully that continues. Six receivers have scored double-digit fantasy points on Louisville this season.
Injury Notes – n/a
Utah vs. Oregon State
Point-Spread: OSU -3
O/U Total: 45.5
Implied Score: OSU 24 – Utah 21
Weather: 58 degrees / 36% rain / 10 mph winds
Utah:
Top Play(s) –