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Middle Tennessee vs. Western Kentucky
Point-Spread: WKU -5.5
O/U Total: 59.5
Implied Score: WKU 31.5 – MTSU 28
Weather: 75 degrees / 65% rain / 6 mph winds
Middle Tennessee:
Top Play(s) – WR Elijah Metcalf ($4,000) Metcalf gets the nod here from a production per dollar standpoint, now leading the Blue Raiders with 22 receptions on 26 targets – 12 more targets than the next closest receiver on the team. Three different receivers have already scored 18 fantasy points or more against Western Kentucky this season.
Fade – DJ England-Chisolm ($5,700) Not a complete fade in that Middle Tennessee doesn’t have a true alpha at receiver and will rotate 5-6 wideouts in and out of the lineup throughout the game. That said, DJE saw his snaps decrease last week against Colorado State with some players back from injury and was targeted just once. Will look to salary save with some other MTSU receiving options.
Bargain Bin – WR Transfers. North Carolina transfer Justin Olson and Georgia Tech transfer Kalani Norris both played over 50% of the team’s snaps last week against CSU. True rotations at their starting spots, though, as they share playing time with Javonte Sherman and England-Chisolm.
Pivot Play – QB Nicholas Vattiato ($8,400) Vattiato is the second best QB option on the slate, largely due to his rushing abilities, hitting double digit carries in half of his game played this season. Middle Tennessee is also 28th nationally in pass play percentage, throwing the ball over 55% of the time. Western Kentucky doesn’t pose much of a threat defensively, allowing 25.5 FPPG to opposing QB1s this season and are 87th in pass D success rate.
Best of the Rest – RB Frank Peasant ($5,400) After missing the Murray State contest in Week 3 to injury, Peasant stepped back into the starting role, carrying the ball 11 times for minimal yardage against a bad Colorado State defense. MTSU is 107th in rush play success rate this season so Peasant is not a priority option. He’ll split carries with NIU transfer RB Jaiden Credle ($4,800) who is the better pure runner of the two. Peasant’s value can come from the passing game, though, as we saw at times last season, including a 8-107-2 performance on 11 targets late in the year. WR Holden Willis ($4,600) came back last week from injury and was second on the team with 9-118-1 on 10 targets. He’s a hybrid WR/TE slot option that MTSU has found success with in the past. I believe Willis shares the position with WR Jeremy Tate ($5,200) who does not appear to have played against Colorado State.
Injury Notes – Frank Peasant is not on the game week depth chart, but that was the case last week and he wound up playing. College Football, folks.
Western Kentucky:
Top Play(s) – QB Austin Reed ($8,800) and Malachi Corley ($6,700) I’ve been told you’re never supposed to have 100% exposure on a player if entering multiple lineups. I disagree with that notion for this slate with the Reed / Corley combo. Middle Tennessee allows the third most fantasy points in the country to opposing quarterbacks. Four receivers have already scored 15 fantasy points or more on the Blue Raiders’ secondary this season.
Fade – RBs. Tougher to find true fades on a three-game slate featuring only G5 schools, but I think we’re safe in ignoring the WKU running back position. The Hilltoppers are 130th nationally in rush play percentage and haven’t been good when they even attempt to keep the ball on the ground, averaging just 3.59 YPC.
Bargain Bin – WR Craig Burt Jr. ($3,300) A 6-foot-4 outside receiver averaging just 6.5 yards per catch – not great. That said, Burt Jr. plays a lot of snaps in an Air Raid offense and he’s cheap. Downgraded if Dalvin Smith plays.
Pivot Play – WR KD Hutchinson ($3,400) This play is dependent on the status of senior receiver Blue Smith who did not play against Troy. Hutchinson, primarily a slot receiver by trade, started in place of Blue last week, finishing with 3-16-0 on four targets. He’s playing out of position on the outside, and slot receivers are the preference in this offense, so our interest here is minimal.
Best of the Rest – WR Easton Messer ($5,600) Is Messer the heir apparent to Corley in the slot when he eventually departs for the NFL? Last two performances against G5 defenses, Messer has combined for over 200 receiving yards on 16 targets with a pair of touchdowns. He’s downgraded slightly if Dalvin Smith ends up playing, but not much. Stacking Reed, Corley and Messer is a viable option, obviously, given how frequently WKU throws the football.
Injury Notes – WR Dalvin Smith ($5,300) Smith did not play last week against Troy after suffering an injury against Houston Baptist in Week 2. Sounded like the injury two weeks ago wasn’t that serious as a report stated Smith was trying to come back in the game in the second half. Apparently, it was serious enough, though, to miss the last two contests. He’s a big enough name to where I think we’ll get some confirmation before game time. RB Markese Stepp ($5,300) was dressed but did not play against Troy.