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West Virginia vs. Houston
Point-Spread: WVU -2.5
O/U Total: 51.5
Implied Score: WVU 27 – UH 24.5
Weather: 79 degrees / 6% rain / 9 mph winds
West Virginia:
Top Play(s) – RB CJ Donaldson ($6,300) Purely a volume play as Donaldson accounts for 56% of the volume share going to WVU running backs, finding the end-zone in four of his first five games. While the Mountaineers haven’t been overly successful at running the football, we knew this would be the strategy with Neal Brown now calling plays. Looking back to his days at Troy and even most recently with Leddie Brown, the HC will lean on his RB1 when he’s in charge of the play calls. Arguably the highest floor of any player on the slate, facing a very average Houston rush defense that allows 18 FPPG to RB1s.
Fade – RB Jaylen Anderson ($4,800) See below. For reasons unbeknownst to me right now, it doesn’t appear Jaylen Anderson played against TCU last week. And WVU might be turning the page in the backfield behind Donaldson.
Bargain Bin – RB Jaheim White ($4,000) Sounds like WVU might try to get the 4-star freshman more touches here as the season goes along after his performance against TCU with 46 rushing yards on five attempts. It’s no secret what the Mountaineers will attempt to do offensively, ranking 4th nationally in rush play percentage at 66.9%.
Pivot Play – WR Hudson Clement ($5,400) You’re taking a major risk in investing in any WVU receiver given what we said above about how much the Mountaineers run the football. The freshman receiver seems like the best option as of now, running the most routes of any receiver last time out against TCU with a team-high three receiving touchdowns – though all of them came in one game vs. Duquesne. Do not roster multiple WVU receivers, but you can consider one of Clement or WR Devin Carter ($4,900).
Best of the Rest – QB Garrett Greene ($6,900) Average Houston secondary, allowing close to 18 FPPG to opposing QB1s and rank 79th in pass D success rate. Our interest in Greene is because of his rushing ability more than what he can do through the air. TCU’s Chandler Morris found success on the ground in his matchup earlier in the year with the Cougars with 53 yards on 12 carries. TE Kole Taylor ($4,500) leads the team in targets, receptions, routes run, and second in touchdowns (2).
Injury Notes – n/a
Houston:
Top Play(s) – WR Samuel Brown ($6,900) The 4-1 touchdown advantage for WR Matthew Golden ($6,700) is why he currently has a higher projection, but Brown is the team’s WR1 in my eyes from watching the Cougars this season. Team leader in nearly every receiving category outside of TDs. Target share for Houston receivers is so top-heavy that it is feasible to have both Brown/Golden stacked in a lineup together. West Virginia grades out really well defending the pass but are allowing the 49th most fantasy points in the country to opposing WRs.
Fade – RB Brandon Campbell ($3,800) Has fallen out of favor with the coaching staff and is now down to RB4 on a team that doesn’t run the football all that effectively. Would not have any exposure here, even if entering 200+ lineups.
Bargain Bin – n/a. Not considering any Houston players below $5k.
Pivot Play – WR Joseph Manjack IV ($5,800) I wouldn’t start three Houston wide receivers in the same lineup, but two is feasible, with Manjack likely to see the lowest ownership of the trio. Same argument here as we mentioned above as the Manjack, Brown and Golden combine for 72% of the team’s target share. If Houston throws, it’s going in one of three directions.
Best of the Rest – QB Donovan Smith ($8,000) We haven’t seen as many designed runs from Smith the last three games as we did the first two weeks – sounds like an oblique injury was the reason why. Hopefully the bye week helped Smith heal up to use that 241-pound frame in the run game. As for throwing the football against WVU, the Mountaineers are ranked 3rd in the nation in pass D success rate, so I don’t expect Smith to light it up through the air against this defense. RB Parker Jenkins ($5,200) has taken over the RB1 role as a true freshman, reminding folks of a few years ago with Alton McCaskill. The Mountaineers also grade out well against the run, allowing just 11.9 FPPG to RB1s and 26th in rush D success rate. Only argument in favor of Tony Mathis Jr. ($5,300) is the revenge game factor, facing his former squad.
Injury Notes – n/a
SMU vs. East Carolina
Point-Spread: SMU -12.5
O/U Total: 51.5
Implied Score: SMU 32 – ECU 19.5
Weather: 68 degrees / 11% rain / 5 mph winds
SMU:
Top Play(s) –
Fresno State vs. Utah State
Point-Spread: Fres -4.5
O/U Total: 57.5
Implied Score: Fres 31 – Utah St 26.5
Weather: 41 degrees / 0% rain / 8 mph winds
Fresno State:
Top Play(s) – RB Malik Sherrod ($5,300) A bit of a risky play here but have to think Fresno State will be running the football more with a backup QB likely starting on Friday. Three-straight weeks now that Sherrod has led the team in rushing attempts over Gilliam. Had it not been for a fall camp injury, Sherrod would have entered 2023 as the team’s RB1. Fresno really has not been effective running the football this season, and Gilliam was really only productive because of the heavy volume he was receiving. Despite that, this is a good matchup for Sherrod with Utah State allowing the 22nd most fantasy points to running backs this season.
Fade – RB Elijah Gilliam ($5,600) See above.
Bargain Bin – WR Mac Dalena ($4,000) Clear fourth option among the Fresno State receivers, but is second on the team in routes run and had his best performance of the year against Wyoming with 8-90-1 on 10 targets. His playing time did not fluctuate early in the year when Erik Brooks was healthy.
Pivot Play – WR Jalen Moss ($5,500) A hot commodity during the college fantasy offseason was sophomore Josiah Freeman who Jake Haener promoted as a breakout player at the NFL Scouting Combine. Well, Freeman was beaten out in fall camp by redshirt freshman Jalen Moss who seems to be gaining steam with every passing week. Three touchdowns in the last four games with multiple 100-yard receiving games. Not investing in multiple Fresno State receivers with a backup QB. Utah State has allowed just one receiver this season to score more than 14 fantasy points in a game this season.
Best of the Rest – WR Erik Brooks ($6,800) Brooks’ production has taken a massive hit the last three games, but a report came out that the senior receiver had missed some of last week’s practices with a walking boot on his foot. Did end up playing against Wyoming last Saturday but limited snaps. According to the Fresno State beat writer, Brooks was a full participant in practice. Does that mean we get the same Brooks from the first three games who was seeing double-digit targets? WR Jalen Gill ($6,200) was limited to just 24 yards last week with his most playing time of the season, following three straight games prior of scoring a touchdown.
Injury Notes – QB Mikey Keene ($8,300) Keene was not at practice on Tuesday and is doubtful for Friday. QB Logan Fife ($7,700) is an experienced backup that can move with a favorable matchup, so he’s not eliminated from the player pool, but unlikely that I’ll have much exposure with the high-end QB options in Pratt and Sanders.
Utah St:
Top Play(s) –
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