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Penn State vs. Ohio State
Point-Spread: OSU -5.5
O/U Total: 45.5
Implied Score: OSU 25.5 – PSU 20
Weather: 53 degrees / 29% rain / 8 mph winds
Penn State:
Top Play(s) – RB Nicholas Singleton ($5,900) This will be a tremendous football game to watch between two Top 10 teams as we all settle in at Big Noon Kickoff. We can also say that we don’t need any exposure to either team on the slate with two of the better defenses in the country. In matchups like this, I’ll side with pure talent over anything, hence Singleton being out top choice. Singleton holds the edge over RB Kaytron Allen ($6,300) in practically every rushing category and is cheaper. And the edges that Allen had a year ago – targets and red-zone carries – all favor Singleton now.
Fade – QB Drew Allar ($8,000) Future Top 10 pick in the NFL Draft but can’t get on board with cheaper/better fantasy quarterbacks as options. Ohio State allows the third fewest fantasy points in the country to quarterbacks.
Bargain Bin – TE Theo Johnson ($4,500) Draftniks love Johnson but the production has never accompanied the potential. Looked good last week against UMass (who doesn’t) with 4-66-2 on five targets. The Buckeyes struggled to contain Notre Dame tight end Mitchell Evans in their matchup with the Irish, allowing nearly 15 fantasy points.
Pivot Play – WR KeAndre Lambert-Smith ($5,700) Lambert-Smith has almost triple the amount of targets as the next closest WR on the Penn State roster, and there is a strong likelihood the Nittany Lions can’t just hand the ball off 40 times on Saturday and find a ton of offensive success. 24% target share for Lambert-Smith this season and that increases to 41% if you just include Penn State WRs.
Best of the Rest – WR Harrison Wallace ($5,000) Seems as though the highly-touted transfers from the offseason in Malik McClain and Dante Cephas have become complete afterthoughts, playing a combined 17 snaps last Saturday. In his return from injury, Wallace had a successful day with 3-41-0 on four targets and played 86% of the contest. If its not KAL on Saturday, it would be Wallace seemingly.
Injury Notes – n/a
Ohio State:
Top Play(s) – WR Marvin Harrison Jr. ($8,400) No brainer as Ohio State’s top play with the injury to Emeka Egbuka. Four 100-yard receiving performances in the last five games and might’ve been five had he not gotten injury against Notre Dame. Stats don’t really pertain to a specimen like Harrison who is a generational NFL prospect but should be noted that Penn State is allowing the fewest fantasy points in the country to wide receivers. Makes you consider fading Harrison or lessening your exposure at least.
Fade – WR Julian Fleming ($5,600) It took just one game of extended action for WR Carnell Tate ($4,300) to already match Julian Fleming’s season long output as the players are now tied with 162 receiving yards in 2023. Tate has already technically burned his redshirt so no reason to limit him now. He should be starting ahead of Fleming moving forward.
Bargain Bin – See above on Carnell Tate.
Pivot Play – TE Cade Stover ($5,400) Didn’t think this would happen with all of the WR talent on the Buckeye roster, but Stover has arguably been the top tight end in the country after maybe Colorado State’s Dallin Holker. 50 or more receiving yards in five of the six games played this season, and now sits second on the team in receptions (23) and touchdowns (3).
Best of the Rest – RB TreVeyon Henderson ($6,600) Henderson looked close to returning last week against Purdue, but the coaching staff smartly kept him sidelined as he was not needed at all in the bludgeoning of Purdue. Reports indicate all four of the top backs were practicing in full this week, so I’d imagine the rotation will look how it normally did in September with Hendo as the clear-cut RB1. Penn State is also allowing the fewest fantasy points in the country to opposing running backs, but the Nittany Lions haven’t played a decent RB all year outside of CJ Donaldson. QB Kyle McCord ($7,200) is much cheaper than I thought, but his 9-point fantasy performance against ND earlier in the year sticks out like a sore thumb. Penn State is far better against the pass than the Irish are.
Injury Notes – WR Emeka Egbuka ($6,900) I’d suspect Egbuka suits up for warmups against Penn State as Ryan Day did say on Tuesday he hopes to have the star receiver back this weekend. That said, one of the Ohio State podcasts mentioned that Egbuka had a noticable limp coming off the practice field this week. Don’t think you can risk him in your lineup as a potential decoy only if he plays.
Memphis vs. UAB
Point-Spread: Mem -6.5
O/U Total: 61.5
Implied Score: Mem 34 – UAB 27.5
Weather: 69 degrees / 0% rain / 7 mph winds
Memphis:
Top Play(s) – WR Roc Taylor ($5,800) Taylor has been arguably one of the best fantasy receivers in the country (yes, country) with three-straight 100-yard receiving performances. UAB is only slightly better at defending the pass than the run, but still rank 88th in pass D success rate and allows the 25th most fantasy points to wide receivers of teams playing in Week 8.
Fade – WR Tauskie Dove ($3,800) After a hot start to the year, the Missouri transfer has fallen out of favor in the Memphis WR rotation and would be considered the sixth option in the passing game at this point.
Bargain Bin – TE Anthony Landphere ($3,300) Absolutely a pick that could blow up in your face. But UAB has been absolutely torched this season by tight ends, allowing the fourth most fantasy points in the country. Part of that is having face Brock Bowers, sure, but four tight ends hit double-digit fantasy points against the Blazers. Season-high five targets last week for Landphere.
Pivot Play – Stack Two Memphis WRs together. Why not? They’re both reasonably priced and have been on hot streaks. We already mentioned Taylor, but DeMeer Blankumsee ($4,700) hasn’t been that far behind now with 28 targets in the last three games alone, with nearly 250 receiving yards in that span.
Best of the Rest – QB Seth Henigan ($8,300) Potentially GPP play here in stacking the two Memphis receivers with Henigan, particularly if Watson does end up sitting Saturday. UAB is allowing the fifth most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks in the country. I’d suggest not watching this game if you have Henigan and just live with the outcome. It’s maddening to watch him play, but as you can see from his box scores, he always gets there. 24 or more fantasy points in every game played in 2023.
Injury Notes – RB Blake Watson ($7,300) Potentially the key to the slate as Watson is considered day-to-day after HC Ryan Silverfield said he’s “a little bit chipped up” after not playing in the second half last week. This is one of the worst rush defense in the country in UAB, allowing 20 FPPG to RB1s and 126th in rush D success rate. RB Sutton Smith ($4,000) would start in Watson’s place should he sit. In spite of the matchup, I wouldn’t consider Smith “a must” even with the porous UAB run defense. Memphis has their own struggles running the football even when Watson is in the lineup.
UAB:
Top Play(s) –
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