Central Florida vs. Oklahoma
Point-Spread: OU -17.5
O/U Total: 67.5
Implied Score: OU 42.5 – UCF 25
Weather: 74 degrees / 0% rain / 9 mph winds
UCF:
Top Play(s) – RB RJ Harvey ($6,400) Harvey is the most predictable piece of the UCF offense and I mean that as a compliment. QB situation is in flux health wise. And guessing on the correct UCF receiver for that given week is like predicting the lottery. Harvey has scored a touchdown in all but one game this season, averaging around 16 touches per game. Now how is the matchup against the Sooners? Jonathon Brooks was the first RB to score over 13 fantasy points vs. Oklahoma this season, which ranks 21st in rush D success rate.
Fade – WR Xavier Townsend ($4,900) I still distinctly remember when I suggested going under on 28.5 receiving yards in the opening week for Townsend. He tripled that line with 81 yards and a touchdown. Since? He’s gone over just once with a combined 76 receiving yards in the last five games. Back to his 2022 numbers of averaging under nine yards per reception. Townsend needs volume to be effective, and he’s not getting it.
Bargain Bin – n/a. Not considering any UCF player below $5k.
Pivot Play – QB John Rhys Plumlee ($7,900) Huge risk in rostering JRP this week as he’s reportedly still not 100%, but we all know the upside he provides as a dual-threat QB. In a radio hit this week, HC Gus Malzahn also stated that Plumlee will run the ball just as much as he normally does. Being that JRP hasn’t been fully healthy in weeks now, I’ll probably fade altogether, going against a defense in the Sooners that allows the fifth fewest fantasy points to QBs in the country. I’d put it at over 25% chance, and that might be underselling, that we see Timmy McClain at some point.
Best of the Rest – WR Javon Baker ($5,300) or WR Kobe Hudson ($5,900) Take your pick of either player, knowing you’ll probably guess incorrectly. That’s a comment from someone burned one too many times on predicting which receiver is the one to own in that week. Hudson is by far the more consistent of the two with a 77% catch rate and just one drop compared to five for Baker. The two did score double-digit fantasy points in both Week’s 2 and 3 but that feels like a rare occurrence. I would not stack the two together.
Injury Notes – n/a
Oklahoma:
Top Play(s) – QB Dillon Gabriel ($9,300) OU needs to do whatever it takes offensively to win the game, obviously, but the Heisman campaign is also on and Gabriel is in the top two currently along with Michael Penix Jr. Maybe we see some stat-padding in the coming weeks? Gabriel is our second highest projected QB of the entire week for CFF.
Fade – RB Gavin Sawchuk ($4,100) The disappearance this season from Sawchuk has been mystifying given how he closed last season in the bowl game. Transfer candidate this offseason? Not sure, but he received just five offensive snaps against Texas. OU is clearly content on siding with the veterans in the backfield.
Bargain Bin – n/a. Not considering any OU players under $5k.
Pivot Play – RB Tawee Walker ($5,400) Marcus Major continues to sit atop the depth chart, and nobody can understand why? Maybe he does the little things like blitz pickup well as a veteran. Walker has been the better of the two, and found the end-zone twice against Texas. UCF is 127th in rush D success rate so the Sooner should find some level of success on the ground outside of Gabriel.
Best of the Rest – WR Jalil Farooq ($6,300) 210 receiving yards in the last two weeks for Farooq who gets the biggest value bump now that Andrel Anthony will miss the remainder of the season. I would not stack the room, but think all three of Farooq, Drake Stoops and Nic Anderson are all viable options in some capacity. Anderson will replace Anthony in the starting lineup, now with six touchdowns in the last four games.
Injury Notes – RB Jovantae Barnes ($5,500) Last update as of 10/17 is that Barnes could potentially be available for the second half of the season. Checks clock. I think this one continues to linger and you can’t even consider until we actually see Barnes on the field. This might just end up being a lost season for the sophomore.
Mississippi State vs. Arkansas
Point-Spread: Ark -6.5
O/U Total: 48.5
Implied Score: Ark 27.5 – MSU 21
Weather: 73 degrees / 0% rain / 8 mph winds
Mississippi State:
Top Play(s) – QB Mike Wright ($5,200) Ah the cheap dual-threat quarterback can be an enigma for Main Slates. We know Wright is one of the fastest players in the SEC and he’s shown in the past that he can succeed against SEC competition. Threw for three touchdowns in a late-season matchup with Florida last season – though one would argue that the Gators had already quit on Billy Napier at that point. Wright also rushed for 126 yards on 11 carries against Kentucky who was ranked at the time. He’s capable, just might not look pretty getting there. 22-point projection at this pricing puts him in play.
Fade – WR Jaden Walley ($3,700) Feels like Walley has been in college as long as Taysom Hill was at this point, and unfortunately, his career has gone in the wrong direction – some of which not to the fault of his with the coaching changes. Walley has played in only four games, but sits seventh among MSU receivers in routes run in 2023.
Bargain Bin – RB Seth Davis ($4,500) This is assuming Marks does not play on Saturday, which we do not know as of Friday. The 4-star freshman came on in relief of Marks against WMU, carrying the ball 10 times for 65 yards and a score. Arkansas strength on defense is stopping the run, so this is not a value play I’d prioritize even if Marks is out.
Pivot Play – QB Jo’Quavious Marks ($6,800) We have Marks in the projections as it currently stands, assuming the bye week allowed for him to recover from the foot injury suffered against Western Michigan. As of Friday morning, I do not see any concrete updates as to his availability. How does the matchup look against Arkansas if Marks is available? I would side with…not great. Just one running back has surpassed 20 fantasy points against the Razorbacks and that player (LJ Martin, BYU) averaged fewer than four yards a carry. Overall, 14 FPPG for RB1s against Arkansas and the Razorbacks are 32nd in rush D success rate.
Best of the Rest – WR Lideatrick Griffin ($5,500) Not sure how comfortable I would be rostering a receiver with Mike Wright starting, but Will Rogers wasn’t lighting the world on fire either. Tulu is the clear WR1 for the Bulldogs with 29 receptions, three touchdowns, a 79% catch rate and a 16.4 YPC average. He’ll be a forgotten WR option at a reasonable pricing for GPP, and has proven already he can be a slate-breaker with 256 receiving yards against South Carolina earlier in the year.
Injury Notes – QB Will Rogers ($5,800) Listed as questionable, but the Mississippi State beat writer posted his expectations that Rogers will miss multiple weeks due to injury. Barring a shocker, he’s out on Saturday.
Arkansas:
Top Play(s) – WR Andrew Armstrong ($6,000) Quiet week from Armstrong last Saturday, but understandable given the opponent. 27% target share which is tops on the team with almost a third of Arkansas’ receiving touchdowns (4). 70 or more receiving yards in five of the seven games played this season. Mississippi State is allowing almost 28 fantasy points per game to opposing WR1s this season, averaging more than 14 fantasy points more than the individual’s season average when facing MSU.
Fade – WRs Not Named Armstrong or TeSlaa. Top heavy target share for the Razorbacks with the WR duo combining for 49%. No other wide receiver on the team has more than eight receptions in 2023.
Bargain Bin – Backup RBs. This is what I don’t know yet as of writing this. We do know that Rocket is out Saturday. AJ Green was the fill-in earlier in the year when Rocket was previously sidelined. Last week, it was Rashod Dubinion who was the listed starter. Situations in flux like this I tend to avoid, but they’re both cheap. Seven different running backs have scored double-digit fantasy points on MSU this season, so one of Dubinion or Green could be a cheap lineup filler. Just not sure which one yet.
Pivot Play – TE Ty Washington ($4,800) Washington was invisible last week with just one reception for 24 yards, just one game after hitting season-highs with seven catches for 90 yards and two scores. With how bad MSU has been at defending the pass, no surprise the Bulldogs are allowing the 13th most fantasy points to tight ends among teams playing this weekend.
Best of the Rest – QB KJ Jefferson ($7,600) Must-win scenario for the Razorbacks, needing to go 4-1 the remainder of the season to reach bowl eligibility. If there a scenario for Arkansas to put the offense on Jefferson and let him go, this would be it with no Rocket Sanders behind him in the backfield. MSU is allowing the fourth most fantasy points in the country to quarterbacks and are 128th in pass D success rate.
Injury Notes – RB Raheim Sanders ($5,500) Rocket has already been ruled out this week, and I’m considering him a sit-out candidate for the remainder of the year in preparation for the NFL Draft. Arkansas’ season is in the tank and Sanders can’t get healthy.
Penn State vs. Ohio State
Point-Spread: OSU -5.5
O/U Total: 45.5
Implied Score: OSU 25.5 – PSU 20
Weather: 53 degrees / 29% rain / 8 mph winds
Penn State:
Top Play(s) – RB Nicholas Singleton ($5,900) This will be a tremendous football game to watch between two Top 10 teams as we all settle in at Big Noon Kickoff. We can also say that we don’t need any exposure to either team on the slate with two of the better defenses in the country. In matchups like this, I’ll side with pure talent over anything, hence Singleton being out top choice. Singleton holds the edge over RB Kaytron Allen ($6,300) in practically every rushing category and is cheaper. And the edges that Allen had a year ago – targets and red-zone carries – all favor Singleton now.
Fade – QB Drew Allar ($8,000) Future Top 10 pick in the NFL Draft but can’t get on board with cheaper/better fantasy quarterbacks as options. Ohio State allows the third fewest fantasy points in the country to quarterbacks.
Bargain Bin – TE Theo Johnson ($4,500) Draftniks love Johnson but the production has never accompanied the potential. Looked good last week against UMass (who doesn’t) with 4-66-2 on five targets. The Buckeyes struggled to contain Notre Dame tight end Mitchell Evans in their matchup with the Irish, allowing nearly 15 fantasy points.
Pivot Play – WR KeAndre Lambert-Smith ($5,700) Lambert-Smith has almost triple the amount of targets as the next closest WR on the Penn State roster, and there is a strong likelihood the Nittany Lions can’t just hand the ball off 40 times on Saturday and find a ton of offensive success. 24% target share for Lambert-Smith this season and that increases to 41% if you just include Penn State WRs.
Best of the Rest – WR Harrison Wallace ($5,000) Seems as though the highly-touted transfers from the offseason in Malik McClain and Dante Cephas have become complete afterthoughts, playing a combined 17 snaps last Saturday. In his return from injury, Wallace had a successful day with 3-41-0 on four targets and played 86% of the contest. If its not KAL on Saturday, it would be Wallace seemingly.
Injury Notes – n/a
Ohio State:
Top Play(s) – WR Marvin Harrison Jr. ($8,400) No brainer as Ohio State’s top play with the injury to Emeka Egbuka. Four 100-yard receiving performances in the last five games and might’ve been five had he not gotten injury against Notre Dame. Stats don’t really pertain to a specimen like Harrison who is a generational NFL prospect but should be noted that Penn State is allowing the fewest fantasy points in the country to wide receivers. Makes you consider fading Harrison or lessening your exposure at least.
Fade – WR Julian Fleming ($5,600) It took just one game of extended action for WR Carnell Tate ($4,300) to already match Julian Fleming’s season long output as the players are now tied with 162 receiving yards in 2023. Tate has already technically burned his redshirt so no reason to limit him now. He should be starting ahead of Fleming moving forward.
Bargain Bin – See above on Carnell Tate.
Pivot Play – TE Cade Stover ($5,400) Didn’t think this would happen with all of the WR talent on the Buckeye roster, but Stover has arguably been the top tight end in the country after maybe Colorado State’s Dallin Holker. 50 or more receiving yards in five of the six games played this season, and now sits second on the team in receptions (23) and touchdowns (3).
Best of the Rest – RB TreVeyon Henderson ($6,600) Henderson looked close to returning last week against Purdue, but the coaching staff smartly kept him sidelined as he was not needed at all in the bludgeoning of Purdue. Reports indicate all four of the top backs were practicing in full this week, so I’d imagine the rotation will look how it normally did in September with Hendo as the clear-cut RB1. Penn State is also allowing the fewest fantasy points in the country to opposing running backs, but the Nittany Lions haven’t played a decent RB all year outside of CJ Donaldson. QB Kyle McCord ($7,200) is much cheaper than I thought, but his 9-point fantasy performance against ND earlier in the year sticks out like a sore thumb. Penn State is far better against the pass than the Irish are.
Injury Notes – WR Emeka Egbuka ($6,900) I’d suspect Egbuka suits up for warmups against Penn State as Ryan Day did say on Tuesday he hopes to have the star receiver back this weekend. That said, one of the Ohio State podcasts mentioned that Egbuka had a noticable limp coming off the practice field this week. Don’t think you can risk him in your lineup as a potential decoy only if he plays.
Memphis vs. UAB
Point-Spread: Mem -6.5
O/U Total: 61.5
Implied Score: Mem 34 – UAB 27.5
Weather: 69 degrees / 0% rain / 7 mph winds
Memphis:
Top Play(s) – WR Roc Taylor ($5,800) Taylor has been arguably one of the best fantasy receivers in the country (yes, country) with three-straight 100-yard receiving performances. UAB is only slightly better at defending the pass than the run, but still rank 88th in pass D success rate and allows the 25th most fantasy points to wide receivers of teams playing in Week 8.
Fade – WR Tauskie Dove ($3,800) After a hot start to the year, the Missouri transfer has fallen out of favor in the Memphis WR rotation and would be considered the sixth option in the passing game at this point.
Bargain Bin – TE Anthony Landphere ($3,300) Absolutely a pick that could blow up in your face. But UAB has been absolutely torched this season by tight ends, allowing the fourth most fantasy points in the country. Part of that is having face Brock Bowers, sure, but four tight ends hit double-digit fantasy points against the Blazers. Season-high five targets last week for Landphere.
Pivot Play – Stack Two Memphis WRs together. Why not? They’re both reasonably priced and have been on hot streaks. We already mentioned Taylor, but DeMeer Blankumsee ($4,700) hasn’t been that far behind now with 28 targets in the last three games alone, with nearly 250 receiving yards in that span.
Best of the Rest – QB Seth Henigan ($8,300) Potentially GPP play here in stacking the two Memphis receivers with Henigan, particularly if Watson does end up sitting Saturday. UAB is allowing the fifth most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks in the country. I’d suggest not watching this game if you have Henigan and just live with the outcome. It’s maddening to watch him play, but as you can see from his box scores, he always gets there. 24 or more fantasy points in every game played in 2023.
Injury Notes – RB Blake Watson ($7,300) Potentially the key to the slate as Watson is considered day-to-day after HC Ryan Silverfield said he’s “a little bit chipped up” after not playing in the second half last week. This is one of the worst rush defense in the country in UAB, allowing 20 FPPG to RB1s and 126th in rush D success rate. RB Sutton Smith ($4,000) would start in Watson’s place should he sit. In spite of the matchup, I wouldn’t consider Smith “a must” even with the porous UAB run defense. Memphis has their own struggles running the football even when Watson is in the lineup.
UAB:
Top Play(s) – RB Jermaine Brown Jr. ($6,200) I’m a tad surprised we have such a modest 17-point projection for Brown this week. Good matchup against a bad Memphis rush defense, allowing 22.1 FPPG to RB1s. Increased passing game usage that we saw last week with 116 receiving yards on seven targets in the loss to UTSA. And now Brown doesn’t have to contend with anyone in the UAB backfield now that Isaiah Jacobs is out for the season. Wheels up?
Fade – WR Samario Rudolph ($4,100) The senior receiver has essentially lost his starting job to the freshman phenom (more on that below) having seen his playing time cut in half, and targeted just five times in the last four games.
Bargain Bin – WR Tejhaun Palmer ($4,500) The 6-foot-2 senior is the far-and-away leader on the team in routes run this season, while second in receptions and targets. Just one receiver this season has scored more than 15 fantasy points against the Tigers this season – Luther Burden. Four different receivers for UAB have between 8-18% target share so the Blazers will spread it out some.
Pivot Play – QB Jacob Zeno ($7,100) We had someone in the CFFSite Discord ask last week who to start between Bo Nix and Zeno as they did have a projection within the same range. And undoubtedly, we suggested Nix as the high floor / high ceiling play between the two. You saw the Jekyll and Hyde nature of Zeno’s performances last week, throwing for just 110 yards with an interception vs. the Roadrunners. Zeno has also scored 24 or more fantasy points in five of seven games played this season. I’d side with fade if forced to choose as Memphis is allowing just 15.1 FPPG to quarterbacks this season, but Zeno should have lower ownership.
Best of the Rest – WR Amare Thomas ($5,100) True freshman leads UAB in targets and receptions, having hit double-digit receptions in three of the last four games. Similar to some other WRs on the slate, Thomas needs volume in order to provide fantasy value, averaging just 9.3 YPC with a 5.6 aDOT. Bigger priority on DK over FD.
Injury Notes – Isaiah Jacobs ($5,000) Big news in CFF for Jermaine Brown Jr. owners as the 50-50 backfield split is no more as Jacobs is out for the season due to injury.
Air Force vs. Navy
Point-Spread: AF -10
O/U Total: 33.5
Implied Score: AF 21.5 – Navy 12.5
Weather: 61 degrees / 9% rain / 19 mph winds
Air Force:
While normally considered fantasy studs, I feel like these G5 players on 12-game main slates often get overlooked. That should not be the case for RB Emmanuel Michel ($5,600) on Saturday who has emerged in the last month of the season as he’s garnering a Brad Roberts-like workload, averaging 25 rushing attempts per in that span. The Midshipmen are allowing over 19 FPPG to opposing RBs this season, making Michel one of the top plays on the slate with a guaranteed workload. RB John Lee Eldridge ($4,900) has not had the fantasy impact most expected coming into the season but remains the same explosive option he was a year ago, averaging over 10 yards per carry. The issue is that JLE gets just six touches per game. QB Jensen Jones ($5,400) will get the start for the injured Zac Larrier, and there isn’t considered to be much of a drop-off. Like his predecessor, Jones is also an adequate athlete for a position that usually gets around 8-12 rushing attempts per game in the triple-option offense.
Navy:
Just one option on the Navy side for Saturday in FB Alex Tecza ($5,400) who’s come on strong in the last four games, averaging close to 10 yards a carry. AF is allowing just 10.5 FPPG to RB1s this season, but also rank just 80th in rush D success rate, so perhaps the Midshipmen can find some creases against a defense they know very well.
Western Michigan vs. Ohio
Point-Spread: Ohio -16.5
O/U Total: 52.5
Implied Score: Ohio 34.5 – WMU 18
Weather: 53 degrees / 3% rain / 10 mph winds
Western Michigan:
Top Play(s) – RB Jalen Buckley ($5,000) We’re going to make this one brief and cover Western Michigan more extensively when we hit full-fledged weekday MACtion in a few weeks. But on a Main Slate against the best scoring defense in the conference, we’re unlikely to have much exposure on the WMU side of things. We’ll give the redshirt freshman a nod here as he’s easily been Western Michigan’s best offensive player this season with five touchdowns in six games that will be a staple in our DFS lineups come November. On Saturday, it’s an extreme longshot play against an Ohio defense that is giving up just 9.6 FPPG to opposing RB1s.
Fade – QBs. OR situation on the depth chart in a week your implied team total is 17.5 points? Easy fade.
Bargain Bin – TE Austin Hence ($3,300) Second on the team in both targets (34) and receptions (19) with a 10-target performance on his resume when WMU faced Syracuse in Week 2. Ohio has actually struggled defending the TE position this season, allowing 9.2 FPPG and 5.7 fantasy points more than their seasonal average.
Pivot Play – WR Kenny Womack ($5,100) Experienced slot receiver who caught 54 passes for 719 yards and three scores last year at Sacred Heart. Womack now leads the team with 35 receptions on 48 targets but needs volume to be valuable as he’s averaging just 9.8 YPC with zero touchdowns. Was targeted 15 times in the matchup with Mississippi State two weeks ago, so there is potential here is the QB play is up to par.
Best of the Rest – WR Leroy Thomas ($3,800) Thomas saw his most playing time of the season last week with four receptions on five targets. Thomas, a Division III grad transfer, also found the end-zone the week prior against Mississippi State. Ohio allows the third fewest fantasy points to wide receivers of the teams playing this week – better than just Michigan and Penn State. Elite company.
Injury Notes – n/a
Ohio:
Top Play(s) – QB Kurtis Rourke ($5,700) I have no clue what is wrong with the Ohio offense this season, bringing back most of the major contributors from last week’s top ranked MAC offense. Tough to fathom Rourke as the top play after throwing three interceptions last week against a mediocre NIU defense on the road, but he’s cheap and facing a Western Michigan defense allowing 26 fantasy points per to opposing quarterbacks.
Fade – RB Sieh Bangura ($7,100) Maybe not an all-out fade, but his price per projection doesn’t make sense, especially when you look at the other top-end running backs on the slate. I lied above when I say I don’t know what’s wrong with the Ohio offense this season. The OL is not performing up to expectations, nor are the running backs, as the Bobcats are 121st in EPA per rush play and 85th in success rate. Now add in that Ohio is essentially splitting the backfield 50-50 with backup O’Shaan Allison ($5,700) and fiscally it does not make sense despite the favorable matchup.
Bargain Bin – TE Tyler Foster ($3,400) 12 of Foster’s 17 targets have come in the last two games. I’m not playing anyone on the Ohio side under $5k realistically.
Pivot Play – WR Sam Wiglusz ($6,400) Team leader in every major receiving category, but on pace to fall well short of last year’s 100-reception season with just 29 catches on 48 targets. That said, wide receivers are having a ton of success against this WMU secondary, combining to average 46.8 fantasy points per game which is 14th most among teams playing this week. If there was ever a game for a Sammy Wiggles breakout, it would be Saturday.
Best of the Rest – WR Miles Cross ($5,000) Entered the WR2 role once Jacoby Jones was announced out for the season, now second on the team in catches (20), targets (38) and first in touchdown (4). Big-play threat on offense, averaging 13.8 YPC and a 15.1 aDOT. Wiglusz or Cross are potential options here.
Injury Notes – n/a
Oklahoma State vs. West Virginia
Point-Spread: WVU -3.5
O/U Total: 49.5
Implied Score: WVU 26.5 – Ok St 23
Weather: 53 degrees / 63% rain / 15 mph winds
Oklahoma State:
Top Play(s) – RB Ollie Gordon ($7,200) Shades of Chubba Hubbard the last few weeks with sophomore running back Ollie Gordon who has dominated the touch counts in the Oklahoma State backfield with 18, 21 and 29 carries the last three weeks, hitting 100+ rushing yards in each contest. This is no gimme matchup against a West Virginia defense giving up just 11.1 FPPG to opposing RB1s this season, and that list of RBs faced does include Nick Singleton, Emani Bailey and Tahj Brooks so they’ve gone up against worthy competition. 3.3 targets per game as a receiver out of the backfield.
Fade – Backups. 71% volume share for Gordon the last three games. Starting receivers all played 63% of more of the offensive snaps last week against Kansas. Tight ends aren’t a factor in the passing game.
Bargain Bin – WR Rashod Owens ($4,800) Big-time hit on suggesting Owens last week as a bargain play, posting 112 yards and nine receptions on 12 targets. Unsurprisingly, Owens gets a price bump, but still a manageable cost. Six different receivers have scored 15 fantasy points or more against WVU this season – all of which being outside receivers like Owens.
Pivot Play – WR Jaden Bray ($4,900) Admittedly biased toward Bray, but still think he can be a decent pivot option despite being targeted just once against Kansas last week. Still ran the most routes of any Oklahoma State receiver and is a constant in the starting lineup now that De’Zhaun Stribling is out for the season. The counter argument is that maybe Bray is just not that good as he was supposed to be next man up and that hasn’t transpired.
Best of the Rest – QB Alan Bowman ($6,200) I was incorrect last week in saying never roster Alan Bowman as he threw for 336 yards and two scores in the win over Kansas. Finally looking like the good ole days of Gundy ball on offense. Projection of just 16 fantasy points for Bowman this week as the game total came in lower than I expected, but West Virginia is allowing 21.1 FPPG to opposing QB1s this season. Both Chandler Morris and Donovan Smith hit 30+ fantasy points in their matchup with the Mountaineers. WR Brennan Presley ($6,200) needs volume to hit this pricing so I’m the least interested in him of the three starting WRs for Oklahoma State, though he did see the intended volume last week with 12 targets.
Injury Notes – n/a
West Virginia:
Top Play(s) – QB Garrett Greene ($7,800) Firmly in play here at $7.8k with a 25-point projection, facing a secondary that just allowed 400+ yards and five touchdowns to KU quarterback Jason Bean last week. Oklahoma State is 92nd in pass D success rate, allowing 21.7 FPPG to opposing QB1s. And those same quarterbacks are averaging 4.9 fantasy points more than their seasonal average when facing the Cowboys.
Fade – RB Jaylen Anderson ($4,500) I think there’s been a change at RB2 behind CJ Donaldson with true freshman Jaheim White who again received praise from head coach Neal Brown. 7-4 rushing attempt advantage last week for White. Not rostering either player, but notable perhaps for down the road.
Bargain Bin – WR Traylon Ray ($3,500) The freshman receiver caught a beautiful 35-yard touchdown pass last week against Houston, playing a season-high 79% of the offensive snaps. Carter’s move to the slot allowed for Ray to enter the starting lineup, which could be a permanent move.
Pivot Play – WR Devin Carter ($5,000) Interesting move last week with the 6-foot-3 Carter as the coaching staff decided to move him inside for better matchups with defenders. Move paid off as Carter had a season-high 116 yards on 11 targets. Slot receivers have DOMINATED Oklahoma State this season with Jaylin Noel and Caullin Lacy combining for over 55 fantasy points against the Cowboys.
Best of the Rest – RB CJ Donaldson ($6,500) Just better RB options on the slate that I won’t have much exposure to Donaldson who is consistently seeing between 17-20 touches each week, but the production isn’t blowing anyone away. Under four yards a carry in each of the last three games, though he’s now found the end-zone in four straight. Aside from the matchup with South Alabama’s La’Damian Webb, Oklahoma State has mostly shut down opposing running backs this season.
Injury Notes – n/a
Washington State vs. Oregon
Point-Spread: Oreg -19.5
O/U Total: 61.5
Implied Score: Oreg 40.5 – WSU 21
Weather: 60 degrees / 4% rain / 3 mph winds
Washington State:
Top Play(s) – QB Cameron Ward ($8,800) Can Ward recapture the magic from the first month of the season where he scored 40+ fantasy points in three of the first four games? It’s very evident when looking at the numbers why Ward’s play has suffered over the last two weeks. Teams are preventing the explosives and forcing the Cougars to methodically march down the field without their best underneath receiver in Lincoln Victor. Ward’s combined average depth of target in September – 8.35. The last two weeks – 6.1. All the while averaging 5.5 yards per attempt. Oregon has allowed just 16 plays of 20 yards or more this season. I would roster Ward only in game stack lineups in hopes this Wazzu offense bounces back for a shootout.
Fade – RB Nakia Watson ($5,100) Washington State is 122nd in rush play percentage at 41.1% and Watson’s play prop line is at a grand total of 29.5 yards. The ONLY argument in favor of Watson is his increased usage in the passing game with 10 targets in the last two games.
Bargain Bin – n/a. Not rostering any Wazzu players under $5k.
Pivot Play – WR Kyle Williams ($5,800) Above average Oregon secondary, ranking 23rd in pass D success rate, but have allowed seven different receivers this season to score 12 or more fantasy points on them. The UNLV transfer has been Wazzu’s best option at receiver this season – partially due to injury to Lincoln Victor – now scoring double digit fantasy points in every game this season. 22 of his 41 targets coming in the last two weeks.
Best of the Rest – WR Josh Kelly ($6,100) Kelly runs very hot and cold when it comes to his fantasy production if looking through the box scores. The one constant is his time on the field – played 48 of 50 offensive snaps last week despite being less than 100% healthy. Some separation last week where backup WRs did not play more than 30% of offensive snaps, so Kelly, Williams and Lincoln Victor were on the field the majority of the game until it was out of hand.
Injury Notes – WR Lincoln Victor ($6,200) Victor was targeted four times in his return to the field, but only played about 55% of the snaps. Head coach Jake Dickert said that Victor is getting close, but probably at 90-95% healthy. I’d imagine those reps ramp up more on Saturday.
Oregon:
Top Play(s) – RB Mar’Keise Irving ($7,500) Seems like Irving is eager to take on a bigger workload after rushing for a season-high 127 yards on 28 total touches in the narrow loss to Washington last week. Here’s a wild trend – an Oregon running back has not had consecutive games of 20 carries or more since 2017. That’s three different coaching staffs in that span of time. Washington State is most susceptible against the run, ranking 98th in success rate, 100th in EPA per rush play defensively, and allowing 19.7 FPPG to opposing RB1s.
Fade – WR Gary Bryant Jr. ($4,800) Are we seeing separation at the wide receiver position for Oregon? The USC transfer played his lowest snap count of the season vs. Washington and wasn’t targeted a single time. Production wasn’t there, but we saw WR Traeshon Holden’s ($4,500) playing time increase as a result, and was targeted five times.
Bargain Bin – TE Terrance Ferguson ($3,700) Undecided on this play, leaning more towards a fade as Ferguson was banged up coming out of last week’s game against Washington with a leg injury. Ferguson was at practice this week, but I’m still tentative on his health. That said, Washington State is allowing the 12th most fantasy points of teams playing this week.
Pivot Play – RB Jordan James ($5,400) Everything said above about Bucky Irving applies to James. Oregon typically doesn’t give the RB1 20 carries in a game, so we’ll see a healthy backfield split. Washington State struggles to defend the run. And James has found the end-zone in all but one game this season. I’d probably lean against stacking both Irving and James together in the same lineup, but the sophomore is the ultimate pivot play on the slate.
Best of the Rest – QB Bo Nix ($9,800) Right or wrong, biased or not, I always enjoy reading predictions from those that cover the team. And an Oregon writer always compiles five bold predictions for the upcoming game that week. And Bo Nix hitting five total touchdowns was one, as she stated that the expectation is the QB1 will utilize his feet more during the stretch run of the season. Washington State is average across the board defending the pass in 2023 and have allowed a ton of explosive plays. I think most DFS players will be on Bucky and James this week, so Nix is another strong pivot option. Remember, Oregon can still make the CFP and Nix remains in the Heisman hunt. Still plenty of motivation here. WR Troy Franklin ($8,200) is a strong correlation play with Nix if you can manage to fit both. His 17.2 YPC should be a nightmare against a Washington State defense that has allowed 30 plays of 20 yards or more in 2023.
Injury Notes – n/a
Tennessee vs. Alabama
Point-Spread: Ala -8.5
O/U Total: 47.5
Implied Score: Ala 27.5 – UT 19
Weather: 79 degrees / 1% rain / 9 mph winds
Tennessee:
Top Play(s) – RB Jaylen Wright ($5,900) This is no longer the high-flying Tennessee offense we’ve grown to know the last two seasons under Josh Heupel. The Vols want to dominate on the ground, albeit because the passing game has been so underwhelming in 2023. Wright is averaging 95.2 yards per game on the ground, third best in the SEC, and leads the conference with 26 carries of 10+ yards or more. Can he run on Bama? Three running backs have scored 13 fantasy points against the Tide this season, but that is the most any RB has posted this season. Alabama is 6th in rush D success rate.
Fade – RB Dylan Sampson ($5,700) Bight future for Sampson after Wright and Jabari Small likely depart to the NFL after this season. But in competitive matchups, which this is likely to be, Sampson has largely been a non-factor. 25 yards on nine attempts last week vs. A&M. Didn’t record a carry in the loss to Florida. Tennessee is likely to lean on its vets on Saturday.
Bargain Bin – WR Chas Nimrod ($3,400) Incorrect in our prediction last week that it would be Kaleb Webb taking Bru McCoy’s spot in the starting lineup. That would be second-year receiver Chas Nimrod who played 57% of the offensive snaps vs. A&M, finishing with a team-high six targets.
Pivot Play – QB Joe Milton ($8,400) What I want to know is who was more instrumental in Tennessee’s offensive success the last two seasons against Alabama – Josh Heupel or Hendon Hooker? I’m sure the latter had more to do with the nearly 600 passing yards and seven touchdowns that the Vols put up through the air in the last two years against the Tide, but maybe Heupel has a recipe for success against this style of defense? Taking a major risk starting Milton at $8.4k against an Alabama pass D that is 4th in success rate and giving up just 14.4 FPPG to quarterbacks. But that risk would also come with minimal ownership.
Best of the Rest – WR Squirrel White ($5,800) Remember what slot receiver Jalin Hyatt did to this secondary a year ago? Best way to attack this secondary is probably matching up White against a UAB transfer and freshman who start at safety for the Tide. Team leader in targets (43) and receptions (29) with 12 more catches than the next closest Tennessee receiver. Ainias Smith and Jordan Watkins, two slot receivers, did combine for 30 fantasy points in their matchups with Alabama. The Tide are also allowing just 27.2 combined fantasy points to opposing WR groups – 12th best mark in the country. Not sure how many more opportunities WR Ramel Keyton ($5,400) is going to get after another brutal drop in the breadbasket last week. Zero receptions on four targets despite playing the most snaps of any Vol receiver. WR Dont’e Thornton ($4,200) was brought up by Heupel on his weekly Tennessee radio show as someone he’s hoping to work in more prominently this week with Keyton being inconsistent and redshirt freshman starting in McCoy’s spot.
Injury Notes – n/a
Alabama:
Top Play(s) – QB Jalen Milroe ($8,400) Doesn’t always look pretty, but 20+ fantasy points in each of the last three games for Milroe…and that’s with him being a complete non-factor as a runner. You wonder if that rumored hamstring injury from a few weeks back has anything to do with negative rushing yards in the last two games. Not great when facing the No. 3 ranked team in the SEC in sacks. I’ll still side with Milroe as Alabama’s top play with the Tide skill positions being completely unpredictable, but this is closer to a full-team fade for me given that Tennessee is giving up just 13.0 FPPG to quarterbacks this season.
Fade – WR Ja’Corey Brooks ($4,700) Its become a given at this point, but let’s just keep tradition going shall we? And this is coming off Brooks’ best performance of the season…with 25 yards receiving on two targets. In fairness to Brooks, the 33 snaps was the most he’s played in a game all season – second most among Bama receivers. Turned a corner?
Bargain Bin – RB Justice Haynes ($3,100) There will be a breakout performance at some point this season for the 5-star freshman. It’s more likely to be in the SEC Cupcake week in late November than one of the Tide’s biggest matchups of the season. But…Nick Saban was talking up Haynes after last week’s game, saying “he played great,” and that Alabama has “four guys at the position.”
Pivot Play – RB Jase McClellan ($6,000) Tennessee ranks top third nationally in rush D success rate and EPA per rush play, so we’re not in love with McClellan in this matchup. But SEC running backs have fared well against the Vols with Trevor Etienne and Montrell Johnson combining for 40 fantasy points in their matchup. Mario Anderson of South Carolina had a 75-yard touchdown run and hit the century mark on 11 carries. Numbers aren’t what some expected from McClellan this season, but he’s consistently seeing 15 touches a game.
Best of the Rest – WRs. Some thought the Week 6 matchup against A&M was the turning point for the Bama receivers with Jermaine Burton and Isaiah Bond combining for 16 receptions on 21 targets, accounting for over 90% of the receiving production. Wishful thinking it turns out as the ball was dispersed evenly among 6-7 different Bama pass catchers, with Bond seeing a game-high five targets. That was reflective of what we saw from this group in the first five weeks of the season. In total, Tennessee is allowing just 28 fantasy points combined to opposing WR groups this season, so we’re avoiding another headache here and fading all options.
Injury Notes – n/a
Wisconsin vs. Illinois
Point-Spread: Wis -2.5
O/U Total: 40.5
Implied Score: Wis 21.5 – Illini 19
Weather: 66 degrees / 0% rain / 22 mph winds
Wisconsin:
Top Play(s) – RB Braelon Allen ($7,700) We know Allen is Wisky’s top play each week, it’s a matter of how good a play is he? With a 19-point projection at $7.7k, I’d lean towards Allen being a very strong option – the issue is that there are RBs on equal footing at a lesser cost. 16 or more carries in the last three games since Chez Mellusi went down with a season-ending injury, facing an Illini defense that is allowing 16.5 FPPG to RB1s and 92nd in rush D success rate. Have to imagine Wisconsin attempting to force-feed Allen now with a backup QB under center. Note – apparently Allen was wearing a mask during media availability this week, maybe under the weather?
Fade – QB Braedyn Locke ($6,600) I don’t think you’ll see a massive downgrade from Tanner Mordecai to Locke, as the former Mississippi State transfer was performing better than his counterpart during spring camp this offseason. Obviously, Mordecai won out, but there were days when Locke was the better of the two QBs. If this weren’t a Main Slate, Locke might be in our pool of options. He’s also not the runner that Mordecai is which downgrades his value.
Bargain Bin – WR Bryson Green ($3,700) I don’t have much interest in the Wisconsin WR room outside of Pauling, but the former Oklahoma State transfer did have his best game of the season with 5-86-0 on eight targets vs. Iowa last week. We’re seeing separation among the Wisky receivers as former 5-star CJ Williams has seemingly fallen down the depth chart.
Pivot Play – WR Will Pauling ($4,400) We’re seeing the effects of the Phil Longo offense in recent weeks with Pauling becoming a target hog in the slot, now with 23 targets combined in the last two games. Preferred on DK over FD because of the scoring settings. Shifty slot receivers have given the Illini the most problems this season, including FAU’s LaJohntay Wester who scored 32 fantasy points in his matchup earlier in the year.
Best of the Rest – WR Chimere Dike ($4,800) Leads the Badgers in routes run this season, while third on the team in targets (26). Likely to see very little ownership on Saturday but is a big-play threat with an 18.1 YPC average and 15.8 aDOT – highest on the team.
Injury Notes – QB Tanner Mordecai ($7,400) Will miss multiple weeks with a fractured throwing hand.
Illinois:
Top Play(s) – WR Isaiah Williams ($5,800) The senior slot receiver finally found the end-zone for the first time this season in the comeback victory over Maryland. Just four receptions in the win, but now has double-digit targets in four of the last five games. Similar to Pauling above, he’s preferred on DK over FD. Wisconsin has allowed three receivers to score 20 fantasy points on them this season, two of which being slot receivers. Williams is a slot receiver.
Fade – QB Luke Altmyer ($6,400) Similar argument to Braedyn Locke above. Just not an appealing option for a Main Slate. Wisconsin is 13th in EPA per pass play defensively and allowing just 14 FPPG to opposing QB1s. The Badgers have made a pair of really good fantasy quarterbacks in Cam Ward and Davis Brin look very pedestrian in their matchups.
Bargain Bin – WR Casey Washington ($3,800) I’ll have zero exposure here, but Washington is the cheapest realistic option for the Illini. Has had his two best games of the season the last two weeks with four receptions against both Nebraska and Maryland and had a drop in both contests. Washington has the second-most routes on the team.
Pivot Play – RB Kaden Feagin ($4,900) Even if Reggie Love somehow plays, this backfield has been turned over to the 4-star freshman after rushing for 84 yards and a touchdown on 19 carries in the Maryland win. Five different running backs have scored double-digit fantasy points against the Badgers this season. That includes a backup RB for Iowa, a backup RB for Georgia Southern, a Buffalo RB, a converted WR turned RB for Purdue and a Washington State RB on a team that doesn’t run the football at all. You see my point.
Best of the Rest – WR Pat Bryant ($4,900) Second on the team in receptions (23) and targets (34), while leading the team in receiving touchdowns (5). Bryant has found paydirt in each of the last three contests.
Injury Notes – RB Reggie Love ($5,000) Not cleared for practice as of Monday. As we stated above, even if that situation improves for Love, this Illinois backfield now belongs to the freshman.
Minnesota vs. Iowa
Point-Spread: Iowa -3.5
O/U Total: 30.5
Implied Score: Iowa 17 – Minn 13.5
Weather: 63 degrees / 0% rain / 23 mph winds
Minnesota:
Hard pass on the Minnesota passing game as the Gopher receivers aren’t cheap and we have QB Athan Kaliakmanis projected to throw for 123 yards. His player prop line is lower than that. Biggest question is whether star freshman RB Darius Taylor ($6,000) will be available for Saturday and if he does, is he a viable option? HC PJ Fleck said the plan is for Taylor to practice this week, but we’ll find out his official status two hours before game-time when the injury report comes out. The Hawkeyes are allowing just 11.8 FPPG to opposing RB1s this season but have allowed a pair of B1G running backs in recent weeks to rush for 80 yards or more against them. The Gophers are 39th in rush success rate offensively and we saw the type of workload that Taylor garnered when healthy. GPP option only that will likely be low-owned as this is in the 2:30 PM CT window so lineup decisions have mostly been made.
Iowa:
Love/hate relationship with the Iowa Hawkeyes and DFS. Love the fact that I can save valuable time by not researching a team for these purposes of this writeup. Hate that we can’t have a more fantasy relevant team to choose from for this slate. For obvious reasons, we’re out on the passing game, particularly now that starting tight end Erick All is expected to miss the remainder of the season. TE Steven Stilianos ($3,100) is expected to start in his place but is only an option out of necessity. The decision to roster any Iowa players ultimately comes down to which running back you prefer between RB Leshon Williams ($5,600) or RB Kaleb Johnson ($5,300). No running back this season has scored more than 15 fantasy points against this Minnesota defense in 2023, so you really can just avoid this agonizing decision of a split backfield.
Texas vs. Houston
Point-Spread: UT -22.5
O/U Total: 60.5
Implied Score: UT 41.5 – Hou 19
Weather: 91 degrees / 0% rain / 6 mph winds
Texas:
Top Play(s) – RB Jonathon Brooks ($7,400) Brooks is essentially matchup-proof at this point, particularly with the volume he receives each week, averaging 20 touches a game. Houston is allowing the 27th most fantasy points to running backs among teams playing this week in college football.
Fade – WR Jordan Whittington ($5,300) A career performance in the Red River Rivalry matchup with Oklahoma for the senior slot receiver, converting on all nine of his targets for 104 yards. No coincidence that his best outing of the year coincided with Ja’Tavion Sanders being less than 100%. If the junior tight end is back at full strength, you would assume Whittington goes back to his standard role as the team’s fourth option in the passing game.
Bargain Bin – RB CJ Baxter ($4,500) Last two B12 blowouts for Texas – Baylor and Kansas. In those matchups, Baxter rushed for a season-high 67 yards on 15 carries against KU, while finding the end-zone on six attempts vs. Baylor. Assuming Vegas is correct in their game spread, Baxter will see plenty of game action Saturday. Bye weeks are a perfect opportunity to get more practice reps for true freshman like Baxter.
Pivot Play – QB Quinn Ewers ($8,600) I think folks will be focused on the Texas RBs on the slate with the Longhorns being a three-touchdown favorite, and rightfully so. But this is a juicy matchup for Ewers facing a Houston secondary that is 102nd in EPA per pass play, 98th in pass D success rate and coming off a performance of allowing 39 fantasy points to an average throwing QB in Garrett Greene.
Best of the Rest – TE Ja’Tavion Sanders ($4,900) Low projection for but that needs to change on the site. Sanders played a season-low 50% of the team’s offensive snaps against Oklahoma in Week 6 but was rumored to have not practiced all week with a foot injury. I’m assuming the bye week did wonders for Sanders and he’ll be back to his normal usage on Saturday. Probably not feasible to stack WR Xavier Worthy ($6,500) and WR Adonai Mitchell ($5,800) together in a lineup in what should be a blowout setting, so you’ll have to choose between the two to pair with Ewers. Will always lean Worthy between the two but arguments to be made for either player.
Injury Notes – n/a
Houston:
Top Play(s) – WR Samuel Brown ($6,500) Has been Houston’s most reliable receiver this season, to the surprise of some in thinking this would be Matthew Golden’s breakout year. Team leader in targets (51), receptions (36) and routes run this season. That said, this is a longshot top play as Houston will spread the ball around amongst its top three receivers and Texas has yet to allow an opposing wideout to score 20 fantasy points against them in 2023. Combined average per game from WR groups against the Longhorns is just 31.5. If Donovan Smith spreads the ball around like he normally does, you’re probably looking at just 12-15 fantasy points here from Brown. Game script does work in his favor.
Fade – RBs. If this coaching staff were taking the smart approach of feeding the best RB on the roster in freshman Parker Jenkins, maybe we’d have some interest here. But you’ll see a mix of Jenkins and Stacy Sneed in a matchup with a Texas defense that is 16th in rush D success rate and allowing just 15.2 FPPG combined to opposing backfields.
Bargain Bin – WR Stephon Johnson ($4,000) This is more of a fade than legitimate bargain bin option as Johnson saw increased playing time against West Virginia because of Matthew Golden leaving the game early with a groin injury. Golden was said to have been practicing on Monday so we’ll assume Johnson will revert back to WR4 on the depth chart. If that changes and Golden is still less than 100%, maybe we will give Johnson a second look.
Pivot Play – WR Joseph Manjack IV ($5,900) 50 or more receiving yards for Manjack in five of the six games played this season, ranked second on the team in touchdowns (3) and receptions (29). All of the same arguments stated about Sam Brown above apply here.
Best of the Rest – QB Donovan Smith ($8,200) Decent projection here of 22.3 fantasy points, but I’ll be unlikely to roster Smith facing this Texas defense. Just two quarterbacks have scored more than 13 fantasy points against the Longhorns this season, one of which was a Heisman candidate in Dillon Gabriel. Smith is not a Heisman candidate. The only scenario here I roster Smith is if I’m game-stacking this matchup.
Injury Notes – n/a
