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Texas Tech vs. BYU
Point-Spread: TT -3.5
O/U Total: 50.5
Implied Score: TT 27 – BYU 23.5
Weather: 74 degrees / 0% rain / 6 mph winds
BYU:
Top Play(s) – RB LJ Martin ($5,700) BYU’s offensive line combination combined with Martin’s inexperience as a true freshman is resulting in major struggles running the football. The Cougars are 128th nationally in rush play success rate. Reading the BYU Mailbag, the team’s beat writer did say that they’re going to lean more into the running game on Saturday despite the struggles, because of how the passing game is unperforming. Can Martin run on Tech? I have my doubts as the Red Raiders have allowed just one RB to top 15 fantasy points against them all year.
Fade – TE Isaac Rex ($4,900) I don’t like the way Rex’s numbers are trending with just two targets in each of the last two games. What happened? BYU got healthy at receiver is what happened with Kody Epps and Keanu Hill back in the lineup. Too congested for a tight end at this pricing.
Bargain Bin – WR Kody Epps ($3,300) Way too cheap here for what is BYU’s most talented receiver. First game back since Week 3 for Epps and he already played the third most snaps of any BYU receiver against TCU, catching a pair of passes on four targets.
Pivot Play – WR Chase Roberts ($4,700) Partially due to health among the BYU receivers, but Roberts has been the Cougars best pass-catching option, leading the team in every major receiving category. Four WRs have scored at least 19 fantasy points against Tech this season, all of which have been boundary receivers like Roberts. Six different BYU receivers were targeted at least three times last week so it’s not imperative to have any in your lineups Saturday, but they’re all modestly priced.
Best of the Rest – QB Kedon Slovis ($7,100) Kilani Sitake is now the latest in a long line of coaches to figure out that Kedon Slovis ain’t it, man. Checked into the BYU chatter to see if there was any mention of Slovis possibly getting replaced at any point and doesn’t sound like any of the backups have made enough waves to possibly challenge for the QB1 job. So we’ll see Slovis on Saturday and likely get the same results we have the last 2-3 years now. Why we can’t outright fade Slovis? Texas Tech is allowing the eighth most fantasy points to QB1s amongst teams that are playing today. I can’t believe I’m talking myself into Slovis being a strong GPP play, but here we are…
Injury Notes – n/a
Texas Tech:
Top Play(s) – RB Tahj Brooks ($6,500) Run the dang ball, coach. This one is straight-forward. Quarterback situation is a mess health-wise, and Brooks has been the team’s best offensive player all season. 15+ carries is a lock, and I’d say Brooks should get closer to 25 touches if Behren Morton is unavailable. BYU has been strong defending the run this season, allowing just 12 FPPG to RB1s. But Tech has the advantage here in the trenches. Feed Brooks.
Fade – RB Cam’Ron Valdez ($4,000) This is no backfield split like we’ve seen in year’s past with Brooks and Sa’Rodorick Thompson. 84% of the rushing attempts by Texas Tech running backs have been by Brooks.
Bargain Bin – WR Coy Eakin ($4,000) Eakin played the most snaps of any Tech receiver in each of the last two games and hit double-digit fantasy points in both contests. Season-high 102 yards on seven targets last week against Kansas State. BYU allowed multiple TCU receivers to score over 20 fantasy points last week, something the Horned Frogs hadn’t done all season.
Pivot Play – WR Jerand Bradley ($5,400) Bradley became an afterthought with Behren Morton at QB but had a good connection with Jake Strong last week with five receptions and a touchdown on 10 targets. Bradley’s viability on Saturday might depend on who is under center.
Best of the Rest – WR Myles Price ($5,000) Price has been Tech’s most consistent receiver the last three weeks since Morton’s insertion as the starting quarterback. Nearly 60% of his season long targets have come in that 3-game span. If Morton plays, my interest in Price increases. Far more value on DK vs. FD as a high-volume slot receiver that catches most of his passes within the first down markers.
Injury Notes – QB Behren Morton ($6,300) We’re projecting Jake Strong to get the nod on Saturday for now, but there is no official word (as of this morning) who will start for the Red Raiders on Saturday. Shame that Morton is on the mend too, as this would be a strong matchup with a bad secondary that just allowed 400 passing yards to a QB making his first-career collegiate start.
TCU vs. Kansas State
Point-Spread: K-State -6.5
O/U Total: 59.5
Implied Score: K-State 33 – TCU 26.5
Weather: 71 degrees / 0% rain / 7 mph winds
Kansas State:
Top Play(s) –
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