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New Mexico State vs. Louisiana Tech
Point-Spread: La Tech -3
O/U Total: 51.5
Implied Score: La Tech 27 – NMSU 24
Weather: 81 degrees / 0% rain / 10 mph winds
New Mexico State:
Top Play(s) – RB Diego Pavia ($9,300) All comes down to whether you can fit Pavia in your lineups as the highest-priced QB on the slate. The junior QB has been on a tear the last five games, averaging 217.2 yards passing and 90 yards per game on the ground. We have a near 30-point projection for Pavia here, but the implied team total of just 24 points is lower than I anticipated as Louisiana Tech is the 87th ranked scoring defense in the country. I would normally steer clear of facing a La Tech secondary that ranks 9th nationally in pass D success rate, but then you look at the string of QBs faced this season. Not impressive. QB1s are averaging 19 fantasy points against the Bulldogs this season, but are also averaging 4.07 fantasy points above their seasonal outputs when facing Louisiana Tech.
Fade – RB Jamoni Jones ($4,200) Still the team’s listed starter, but Jones has essentially fallen to third on the RB pecking order for the Aggies, now with less than 20 yards rushing in every game this season. There is zero reason to have any exposure here.
Bargain Bin – RB Monte Watkins ($4,900) I don’t understand the rotations at RB or WR at New Mexico State under Jerry Kill. I know he’s an honorable coach, but the best players don’t play for some strange reason. Case in point with Watkins who has the third-most rushing attempts by New Mexico State RBs yet is averaging 11.9 YPC after rushing for 100+ last week against UTEP. Don’t get at all why the Aggies continue to give Star Thomas and, more specifically Jamoni Jones, any carries. The Bulldogs are far worse against the run than the pass, ranking 106th in EPA per run play, 85th in rush D success rate and allowing 18.1 FPPG.
Pivot Play – RB Star Thomas ($5,700) For all the reasons stated above on Watkins, I think Thomas would be an exceptional low-owned pivot play. We mentioned RB1s are averaging 18.1 FPPG against Louisiana Tech. On average, those RB1s are scoring over 11 fantasy points more than there seasonal averages when facing the Bulldogs.
Best of the Rest – QB Eli Stowers ($8,200) Shame we can’t actually play New Mexico State’s best wide receiver currently because it is their former backup quarterback who remains listed at the QB position on DraftKings. And not cheap either! As for the other Aggie receivers, only one under consideration for me would be WR Jonathan Brady ($5,700) who leads the team in targets (31) and routes run. WR Trent Hudson ($5,400) had over 100 yards in Week 7, but didn’t record a single catch against UTEP as he’s giving away playing time now to Stowers.
Injury Notes – n/a
Louisiana Tech:
Top Play(s) – WR Smoke Harris ($7,000) Dare I say Smoke Harris is the most consistent WR option on the slate, even more so than Corley. Harris is a priority on DK over FD, but valuable on both with double digit receptions in three of the last four games. NMSU ranks very poorly against the pass – 91st in pass D success rate and 89th in EPA per pass play – allowing 17.8 FPPG to opposing WR1s.
Fade – TE Nate Jones ($3,300) This is mostly because Jones is questionable entering Tuesday’s matchup. But reading the practice report from over the weekend, it sounded as though 4-wide sets with the receivers could be featured more. Which leads me to…
Bargain Bin – WR Marlion Jackson ($3,000) Haven’t heard of Jackson prior to researching this writeup but played a season-high in snaps last time out against Middle Tennessee, finishing with 29 yards on three targets. If La Tech is running 4-wide sets like the practice reports hinted, Jackson will see time in the slot next to Smoke Harris.
Pivot Play – WR Cyrus Allen ($6,100) More variance tied to Allen’s fantasy output than Smoke Harris, but a high-upside receiver averaging 17.4 YPC, coming off a 100-yard receiving performance against Middle Tennessee in Week 7. We’ve spoken at length this season about the top-heavy target share for the Bulldogs with Allen/Harris combining for 47%. I love anecdotes like this when researching teams, but the La Tech beat writer who does attend most practices during the week put out a prediction that both Allen and Harris hit 100 yards receiving on Tuesday. Opportunity to stack the two in a lineup to differentiate from others in GPPs.
Best of the Rest – QB Hank Bachmeier ($6,000) All signs point to Bachmeier getting the start on Tuesday as he was getting first-team reps in practice over the week, last reported by the Louisiana Tech beat writer. Distant fourth among the QB options on the slate, but he’s cheap enough to where you could think about playing him. The extended days off Louisiana Tech had with the bye week should help from a health and game-planning standpoint for this matchup – I was surprised to see they were favored here. WR Kyle Maxwell ($3,400) played 70 of 78 snaps last time out against Middle Tennessee, catching just two passes on seven targets, but did find the end-zone. His boost in playing time was a direct result of WR Tru Edwards ($3,500) not playing in that game.
Injury Notes – RB Tyre Shelton ($6,600) As of Saturday, the talk from the La Tech writer is that Shelton should be considered more doubtful than questionable. We’ll check back on Tuesday (writing this Monday) to confirm the details. I’m taking this quote directly from the practice report describing who would fill in for Shelton should he be out – “Fields at RB. Moody likely the backup. Thornton maybe in the mix, Williams too.” So are we looking at RB Jacob Fields ($3,400) as the likely starter? Could be important for this slate with the lack of RB options. New Mexico State is allowing just 13.4 FPPG to running backs.
Liberty vs. Western Kentucky
Point-Spread: Lib -4
O/U Total: 61.5
Implied Score: Lib 33 – WKU 29
Weather: 69 degrees / 0% rain / 7 mph winds
Western Kentucky:
Top Play(s) –
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