New Mexico State vs. Louisiana Tech
Point-Spread: La Tech -3
O/U Total: 51.5
Implied Score: La Tech 27 – NMSU 24
Weather: 81 degrees / 0% rain / 10 mph winds
New Mexico State:
Top Play(s) – RB Diego Pavia ($9,300) All comes down to whether you can fit Pavia in your lineups as the highest-priced QB on the slate. The junior QB has been on a tear the last five games, averaging 217.2 yards passing and 90 yards per game on the ground. We have a near 30-point projection for Pavia here, but the implied team total of just 24 points is lower than I anticipated as Louisiana Tech is the 87th ranked scoring defense in the country. I would normally steer clear of facing a La Tech secondary that ranks 9th nationally in pass D success rate, but then you look at the string of QBs faced this season. Not impressive. QB1s are averaging 19 fantasy points against the Bulldogs this season, but are also averaging 4.07 fantasy points above their seasonal outputs when facing Louisiana Tech.
Fade – RB Jamoni Jones ($4,200) Still the team’s listed starter, but Jones has essentially fallen to third on the RB pecking order for the Aggies, now with less than 20 yards rushing in every game this season. There is zero reason to have any exposure here.
Bargain Bin – RB Monte Watkins ($4,900) I don’t understand the rotations at RB or WR at New Mexico State under Jerry Kill. I know he’s an honorable coach, but the best players don’t play for some strange reason. Case in point with Watkins who has the third-most rushing attempts by New Mexico State RBs yet is averaging 11.9 YPC after rushing for 100+ last week against UTEP. Don’t get at all why the Aggies continue to give Star Thomas and, more specifically Jamoni Jones, any carries. The Bulldogs are far worse against the run than the pass, ranking 106th in EPA per run play, 85th in rush D success rate and allowing 18.1 FPPG.
Pivot Play – RB Star Thomas ($5,700) For all the reasons stated above on Watkins, I think Thomas would be an exceptional low-owned pivot play. We mentioned RB1s are averaging 18.1 FPPG against Louisiana Tech. On average, those RB1s are scoring over 11 fantasy points more than there seasonal averages when facing the Bulldogs.
Best of the Rest – QB Eli Stowers ($8,200) Shame we can’t actually play New Mexico State’s best wide receiver currently because it is their former backup quarterback who remains listed at the QB position on DraftKings. And not cheap either! As for the other Aggie receivers, only one under consideration for me would be WR Jonathan Brady ($5,700) who leads the team in targets (31) and routes run. WR Trent Hudson ($5,400) had over 100 yards in Week 7, but didn’t record a single catch against UTEP as he’s giving away playing time now to Stowers.
Injury Notes – n/a
Louisiana Tech:
Top Play(s) – WR Smoke Harris ($7,000) Dare I say Smoke Harris is the most consistent WR option on the slate, even more so than Corley. Harris is a priority on DK over FD, but valuable on both with double digit receptions in three of the last four games. NMSU ranks very poorly against the pass – 91st in pass D success rate and 89th in EPA per pass play – allowing 17.8 FPPG to opposing WR1s.
Fade – TE Nate Jones ($3,300) This is mostly because Jones is questionable entering Tuesday’s matchup. But reading the practice report from over the weekend, it sounded as though 4-wide sets with the receivers could be featured more. Which leads me to…
Bargain Bin – WR Marlion Jackson ($3,000) Haven’t heard of Jackson prior to researching this writeup but played a season-high in snaps last time out against Middle Tennessee, finishing with 29 yards on three targets. If La Tech is running 4-wide sets like the practice reports hinted, Jackson will see time in the slot next to Smoke Harris.
Pivot Play – WR Cyrus Allen ($6,100) More variance tied to Allen’s fantasy output than Smoke Harris, but a high-upside receiver averaging 17.4 YPC, coming off a 100-yard receiving performance against Middle Tennessee in Week 7. We’ve spoken at length this season about the top-heavy target share for the Bulldogs with Allen/Harris combining for 47%. I love anecdotes like this when researching teams, but the La Tech beat writer who does attend most practices during the week put out a prediction that both Allen and Harris hit 100 yards receiving on Tuesday. Opportunity to stack the two in a lineup to differentiate from others in GPPs.
Best of the Rest – QB Hank Bachmeier ($6,000) All signs point to Bachmeier getting the start on Tuesday as he was getting first-team reps in practice over the week, last reported by the Louisiana Tech beat writer. Distant fourth among the QB options on the slate, but he’s cheap enough to where you could think about playing him. The extended days off Louisiana Tech had with the bye week should help from a health and game-planning standpoint for this matchup – I was surprised to see they were favored here. WR Kyle Maxwell ($3,400) played 70 of 78 snaps last time out against Middle Tennessee, catching just two passes on seven targets, but did find the end-zone. His boost in playing time was a direct result of WR Tru Edwards ($3,500) not playing in that game.
Injury Notes – RB Tyre Shelton ($6,600) As of Saturday, the talk from the La Tech writer is that Shelton should be considered more doubtful than questionable. We’ll check back on Tuesday (writing this Monday) to confirm the details. I’m taking this quote directly from the practice report describing who would fill in for Shelton should he be out – “Fields at RB. Moody likely the backup. Thornton maybe in the mix, Williams too.” So are we looking at RB Jacob Fields ($3,400) as the likely starter? Could be important for this slate with the lack of RB options. New Mexico State is allowing just 13.4 FPPG to running backs.
Liberty vs. Western Kentucky
Point-Spread: Lib -4
O/U Total: 61.5
Implied Score: Lib 33 – WKU 29
Weather: 69 degrees / 0% rain / 7 mph winds
Western Kentucky:
Top Play(s) – WR Malachi Corley ($7,500) Cooley gets the nod of first priority when composing your lineups, but Corley is a very close second. Down week against Jacksonville State with just 47 receiving yards on six receptions but was still targeted 12 times. Slot receivers have found a lot of success against this Liberty defense in recent weeks with Noah Smith, Zack Dobson and Elijah Metcalf all scoring 18 or more fantasy points vs. the Flames.
Fade – RB Davion Ervin-Poindexter ($4,000) Sharp decline in playing time this season for the former Indiana transfer, who was on the field just 23% of the time in the loss to Jacksonville State last week. DEP has given way to Elijah Young and Markese Stepp in the battle of former P5 transfers, essentially now third on the depth chart for a team that is 130th in rush play percentage. Don’t mind fading all four of the WKU running backs because of that.
Bargain Bin – WR Moussa Barry ($3,300) Watch a year from now, after I continue to rag on the player, that Barry becomes a household name in the WKU offense. I simply don’t understand why he receives more playing time than Dalvin Smith who has been more effective. That said, second most offensive snaps behind Malachi Corley last week, and has 11 of his 24 targets in the last two games alone. Still a young player as a redshirt FR, so maybe the staff sees something that my untrained eye can’t.
Pivot Play – WR Dalvin Smith ($4,500) Another situation similar to New Mexico State where this coaching staff just refuses to play its best players. Smith, expected to be the clear-cut WR2 coming into the season, played just 29 of 73 snaps against Jacksonville State last week despite appearing to be healthy. Did find the end-zone, but man, I expected more out of a player that had 145 yards on 10 targets in the bowl game last season against South Alabama. Simply hasn’t materialized to this point, but it’s trending up following the injury, however slight that may be.
Best of the Rest – QB Austin Reed ($8,500) There is a lot of variance that occurs each year with G5 players and Reed is a prime example. Surrounding talent outside of Malachi Corley simply isn’t up to par like it was a year ago, and you’re seeing the result of that. Obviously, Reed is in play as an option, but how is the matchup? The pass defense is the better of the two defensive components for Liberty, ranking 47th in pass D success rate and giving up just 16.7 FPPG to quarterbacks. I can see fading him with other solid options in Pavia and Salter.
Injury Notes – n/a
Liberty:
Top Play(s) – RB Quinton Cooley ($6,300) Lock of the slate, and never thought I’d say that with Western Kentucky among the available teams. 100+ rushing yards in five of the last six games, facing a WKU defense that is allowing 23 fantasy points per game to RB1s this season. WKU and New Mexico State utilize full-blown committees and Louisiana Tech has health concerns at RB. Cooley is simply a must in your lineups.
Fade – Billy Lucas ($5,100) $4.1K we might give Lucas some consideration, but the rushing volume for Cooley has increased with every passing week to where this is not a RBBC anymore like it was in September. A tight point spread means we have limited interests in backup running backs.
Bargain Bin – WR Noah Frith ($3,300) Frith is the G5 version of Tobias Merriweather in that he’s on the field 90% of the time, yet somehow doesn’t give us any production. The 5th-year senior played 71 of 84 snaps last week against Middle Tennessee yet was targeted just twice. He’s cheap enough to where you have to consider, though.
Pivot Play – WR CJ Daniels ($5,900) Don’t think Daniels will see a lot of ownership as DFS players will spend up for Malachi Corley and the Louisiana Tech duo. Daniels is hit or miss with his production but leads the team with 26% target share. TE Bentley Hanshaw ($3,700) is tied for the team lead with four receiving touchdowns. WR Treon Sibley ($4,800) would be the ultimate low-owned pivot, ranked second on the team in targets and receptions, finding the end-zone in three of the last five games. The Hilltoppers have allowed the 28th most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers among the teams playing this week.
Best of the Rest – QB Kaidon Salter ($8,700) Similar debate with Austin Reed above. We know Salter is an option, but how is the matchup? Comparable situations actually, as WKU is better against the pass than the run, ranking 69th in success rate but have been absolutely dominated by running quarterbacks like Salter. 160 rushing yards and two scores from USF’s Byrum Brown in the opener. 146 yards on 28 carries from Zion Webb last week. I doubt Salter gets that kind of workload because they have Cooley in the backfield, but those are some amazing statistics. Salter is my favorite QB on the slate, even paired with Cooley.
Injury Notes – n/a
Jacksonville State vs. Florida International
Point-Spread: Jax St -7.5
O/U Total: 44.5
Implied Score: Jax St 26 – FIU 18.5
Weather: 78 degrees / 11% rain / 17 mph winds
Jacksonville State:
Top Play(s) – QB Zion Webb ($6,800) This is the pumpkin patch DFS slate. Go do something fun outside with the kids and buy yourself some goodwill with the wifey instead of being subjected to two dumpster fire matchups with game totals under 40. If you decide to forgo my advice and play, do yourself the favor at least of rostering Zion Webb against an FIU defense that is allowing the 15th most fantasy points in the country to quarterbacks.
Fade – WR Quinton Lane ($4,800) Really hoping they line Lane on the prop market, because those have become automatic under plays. Abysmal numbers for someone who gets plenty of on-field time, with less than 20 yards receiving in each of the last four games. His value diminishes further with the emergence of another Jacksonville State receiver recently.
Bargain Bin – WR P.J. Wells ($3,700) In just his second game of the season, Wells managed to lead the team with five receptions on 10 targets against WKU last week. 49 career receptions entering 2023 so this is an experienced player at 6-foot-3. This won’t happen on Wednesday because Jacksonville State is such a low volume passing offense, but there have been three different receivers this season to score 30 or more fantasy points on FIU’s secondary. Having a Jacksonville State wideout in your lineup makes some sense.
Pivot Play – WR Perry Carter ($5,200) Wells will get plenty of attention because of his breakout performance a week ago, combined with his cheap salary. But Carter has been the team’s most consistent receiver in 2023 with at least five targets in each of the last five games.
Best of the Rest – RB Anwar Lewis ($5,900) We’re expecting Malik Jackson to sit, which obviously boosts the stock of Lewis who saw 17 of the 25 carries that went to Jacksonville State RBs in the win over Western Kentucky. RB1s are only scoring 13.9 FPPG against Florida International this season but are averaging over seven fantasy points above their seasonal average when facing the Panthers. Very reasonable strategy to pair with Zion Webb because of how much Jacksonville State runs the football.
Injury Notes – RB Malik Jackson ($6,300) We got news prior to kickoff that Jackson would not play against Western Kentucky last week, so I’d imagine that will be the same case on Wednesday. Rich Rodriguez said that they’re hopeful to have Jackson back at practice this week. Signifies to me that he’s probably more doubtful than questionable, but we’ll see.
Florida International:
Top Play(s) – WR Kris Mitchell ($7,400) Very easy to construct a lineup with Mitchell despite his inflated salary, making him a lock for me. 31% target share and five of the team’s six receiving touchdowns. You’re building your lineups centered around the two highest priced receivers.
Fade – TE Josiah Miamen ($3,100) The dream is dead. I thought FIU’s tight end usage from last season would carry over to 2023, but simply hasn’t transpired. Just one target against Sam Houston State despite being on the field for over 80% of the offensive snaps.
Bargain Bin – WR Eric Rivers ($4,000) FIU should be in a trailing position tonight as a 9-point underdog, so we could see a similar pass-heavy script to last week’s game against Sam Houston State. Rivers had his best game of the season with 6-50-0 on seven targets, and was on the field for 71% of the offensive snaps – easily his highest mark of the season.
Pivot Play – WR Jalen Bracey ($4,200) I do think it’s feasible to stack multiple FIU WRs in the same lineup as we saw last week with the Panthers in a trailing position. 32 combined targets went to FIU receivers last week, eight of which to Bracey with a season-high five receptions.
Best of the Rest – QB Keyone Jenkins ($6,200) Jenkins sits third for me among QB options on the slate behind Webb and Keegan Shoemaker as FIU simply isn’t effective throwing the football this season, ranked 124th in pass play success rate. Jacksonville State only allows 14.7 FPPG to opposing QBs this season. Split backfield between RB Shomari Lawrence ($5,500) and RB Kejon Owens ($5,300), and similar to New Mexico State in that the better player isn’t seeing the field as much. Owens has the superior numbers Lawrence, averaging over six yards a carry with rushing touchdowns in the last two games. Would not stack the two together despite both finding the end-zone last week because of the potential game script.
Injury Notes – n/a
UTEP vs. Sam Houston State
Point-Spread: SHSU -3.5
O/U Total: 36.5
Implied Score: SHSU 20 – UTEP 16.5
Weather: 79 degrees / 0% rain / 11 mph winds
UTEP:
Top Play(s) – WR Kelly Akharaiyi ($6,000) Placing Akharaiyi as the top UTEP play on the slate because of his GPP winning upside. Won’t see much ownership as it’s difficult to fit him in a lineup alongside Noah Smith and Kris Mitchell who are priorities. Volume is there each week with at least six targets in all but one game this season. Just a 43.9% catch rate and five drops is why Akharaiyi isn’t effective on a game-to-game basis.
Fade – QB Cade McConnell ($6,000) Least interest among the four quarterbacks available with a very low implied team total. The only argument in favor of McConnell is that he’s facing a defense that is giving up 21.6 FPPG to opposing quarterbacks, though the QBs that have done the most damage against SHSU are runners. McConnell is not a dual threat.
Bargain Bin – n/a. Not playing any UTEP players under $5k.
Pivot Play – RB Torrence Burgess Jr. ($6,200) Burgess projects higher than Deion Hankins this week for us because of his usage in the passing game, catching four passes on five targets last week against New Mexico State. Figure the game script will play out similarly as a 3.5-point underdog. Would not stack the UTEP RBs together in a lineup.
Best of the Rest – RB Deion Hankins ($5,700) 15 or more carries in the last three weeks for Hankins, who hit the century mark for the second time this season against New Mexico State. Sam Houston State is allowing 15.6 FPPG to opposing RB1s. WR Jeremiah Ballard ($5,400) is averaging seven targets per game over the last five games in place of Tyrin Smith. I’d attempt to have either Akharaiyi or Ballard in each of the my lineups, but not a necessity.
Injury Notes – Gavin Hardison was in street clothes last week and is likely unavailable on Wednesday. We don’t anticipate seeing Tyrin Smith any more this season as he’s either entering the NFL Draft or preserving a redshirt, having only played in four games.
Sam Houston State:
Top Play(s) – WR Noah Smith ($6,900) Lock it in, 100% exposure. Double-digit targets in each of the last four games. Enough said.
Fade – RB Adrian Murdaugh ($3,200) Just four combined carries in the last two weeks backing up John Gentry and sounds as though primary backup Zach Hrbacek could be returning soon from injury. This is a one-man band in the Sam Houston backfield, in a pass-heavy scheme.
Bargain Bin – TE Elijah Sohn ($3,700) All Sam Houston State pass-catchers are benefiting from this team essentially turning into an Air Raid offense. Tied his season-high with four targets last week, while also finding the end-zone.
Pivot Play – RB John Gentry ($5,200) The Utah State transfer wasn’t effective running the football in his return from injury last week with just 29 yards on 11 carries. But Gentry found other ways to be productive with seven receptions on eight targets in the passing game. The Miners are allowing 18.9 FPPG to opposing RB1s this season, most of any team on this two-game slate. Gentry also doesn’t have any challengers in the backfield, making him the second most appealing RB on the slate outside of Anwar Lewis.
Best of the Rest – QB Keegan Shoemaker ($6,600) Shoemaker made some critical mistakes down the stretch last week that cost SHSU its first win of the season but has now scored over 22 fantasy points in each of the last three games. The BearKats are now 16th nationally in pass play percentage, facing a defense that just gave up 41 fantasy points last week to Diego Pavia. Clear separation at receiver amongst the top three with WR Al’vonte Woodard ($5,100) and WR Malik Phillips ($5,300) playing over 75% of the offensive snaps last week. The WR4 played just 14 snaps with two targets. Normally, stacking multiple SHSU receivers in a lineup was a sound strategy, but wouldn’t go overboard as we’re in the unusual situation of the BearKats being a favorite.
Injury Notes – n/a
