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TCU vs. Texas Tech
Point-Spread: TT -3
O/U Total: 59.5
Implied Score: TT 31 – TCU 28
Weather: 61 degrees / 0% rain / 10 mph winds
TCU:
Top Play(s) – QB Josh Hoover ($8,100) I like the situation here for Hoover and is probably my top quarterback on the slate. We saw the upside the redshirt freshman gunslinger provides back with his 400+ yard performance three weeks ago against BYU. Obviously, a poor showing for Hoover and the entire TCU offense in the blowout loss to Kansas State, but good spot here coming off the bye with extended time to review the tape and get additional reps in practice. Tech is allowing 24.6 FPPG to opposing quarterbacks this season, most on any team on the slate.
Fade – RB Trey Sanders ($4,100) Not sure what happened after that 3-TD performance in the opener against Colorado, but it’s been the Emani Bailey show ever since. TCU fans are at the point where they’d like to see more of freshman Cam Cook over Sanders.
Bargain Bin – WR Warren Thompson ($4,100) Cheapest realistic option amongst the TCU wideouts. Just sixth on the team overall in targets and receptions, Thompson ran the most routes of any Horned Frog receiver in the loss to Kansas State. And no, that wasn’t strictly in garbage time.
Pivot Play – WR Savion Williams ($6,100) Five different receivers still see significant playing time and there is no target hog here, but Williams seems to have the best connection with Hoover as evidenced by the last two games. 18 of Williams’ 36 targets on the season have come in the last two games alone.
Best of the Rest – RB Emani Bailey ($7,700) Don’t mind pairing Hoover and Bailey in the same lineup together, but side with Hoover as TCU’s top play given the surplus of running back options available on the slate. Bailey still dominates the volume share with 56% of the team’s rushing attempts. Not a must have on the slate as Tech allows just 12.9 FPPG to RB1s and are 49th in rush D success rate. Wouldn’t stack TCU receivers in a lineup, though it would differentiate yourself in a GPP, but WR JP Richardson ($6,700) does lead the team in targets (44) and receptions (30), despite being sixth on the team in routes run. He’s also seen a slight bump with Hoover in as the starter. Tech allows 9.8 FPPG to TE1s with three different tight ends scoring 12 fantasy points or more in their respective matchup. TE Jared Wiley ($4,000) has been targeted at least three times in all but one game this season.
Injury Notes – n/a
Texas Tech:
Top Play(s) – RB Tahj Brooks ($7,400) No brainer here. Five 100-yard rushing performances in the last six weeks. I think OC Zach Kittley here either had an epiphany realizing who is best player on offense was, or he got a stern talking to from the boss to not throw the ball 40 times a game anymore as it wasn’t working. No reason to sit Brooks against a TCU run defense that is mediocre at best across the board, allowing 19 FPPG to opposing RB1s.
Fade – RB Cam’Ron Valdez ($3,900) I know I’m repeating myself at this point with the Texas Tech backfield, but we’ll say it again – the Red Raiders are no longer a 50-50 split as they were a year ago with Brooks and Sa’Rodorick Thompson. A whopping 64% of the team’s rushing attempts belong to Brooks and that number soars to 83% volume share when strictly looking at Tech RBs.
Bargain Bin – WR Coy Eakin ($3,200) Just four receiving yards in the loss to BYU in Week 8, but that’s now consecutive games in which Eakin has run the most routes of any Tech receiver. Posted 102 receiving yards in the loss to Kansas State in Week 7.
Pivot Play – WR Myles Price ($5,600) Noticeable differences in production for Price when Morton has been in the lineup vs. when he’s not. 57% of Price’s receptions and 51% of his targets have come between Week’s 5-7 – all of which were when Morton was under center. Same can’t be said for WR Jerand Bradley ($5,300) who had a combined 38 targets in the first four weeks. Just 20 in the last four games. TCU is only allowing 14 FPPG to opposing WRs this season and the four highest scoring receivers against the Horned Frogs came in just two games – Kansas State and Colorado. Outside of that, TCU’s been good on the back end.
Best of the Rest – QB Behren Morton ($6,500) Morton will be back under center for the Red Raiders after missing the Week 8 contest against BYU. TCU is better at defending the pass vs. the run this season, allowing just 18 FPPG to opposing quarterbacks and are 37th in pass D success rate. Not an intimidating matchup from that aspect, but Morton is averaging just 26.5 attempts per game since taking over as the starter. This is a run-based offense now. WR Xavier White ($3,900) has seen a significant uptick in playing time the last two weeks with over 120 combined receiving yards. He’s overtaken Drae McCray as the second slot receiver next to Myles Price.
Injury Notes – n/a
Wake Forest vs. Duke
Point-Spread: Duke -12.5
O/U Total: 44.5
Implied Score: Duke 28.5 – WF 16
Weather: 47 degrees / 0% rain / 3 mph winds
Wake Forest:
Top Play(s) –
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