theCFFsite’s Heisman Members can view the full article here.
Become an All-American or Heisman Member and get access to our exclusive members-only content and an invite into theCFFsite Discord.
BYU vs. West Virginia
Point-Spread: WVU -12.5
O/U Total: 48.5
Implied Score: WVU 30.5 – BYU 18
Weather: 52 degrees / 5% rain / 6 mph winds
BYU:
Top Play(s) – RB Aidan Robbins ($3,900) With LJ Martin out due to injury, Robbins got the starting nod against Texas, rushing for 56 yards on 17 carries. Didn’t expect much against the No. 1 ranked rush defense in the Big 12 but the volume is notable. Just two carries went to BYU running backs not named Robbins last week. Should LJ Martin sit out tonight, Robbins gets a slightly better matchup this week and is cheap. RB1s are averaging 17.9 FPPG against West Virginia this season.
Fade – TE Isaac Rex ($4,600) If we want exposure to the BYU pass-catchers (we really don’t), we’re going cheap with a sub-$4k option. Rex’s numbers have trended downward since the opening month. 33 targets in Week’s 1-4. 14 targets in Week’s 5-9.
Bargain Bin – WR Kody Epps ($3,900) Minimal production for the junior slot receiver, but his reps continue to rise with each passing week since coming back from injury, running the second most routes of any BYU wideout against Texas. Epps may not have to contend for reps in the slot with Darius Lassiter either who is questionable for tonight.
Pivot Play – QB Jake Retzlaff ($5,500) Retzlaff will get the start on Saturday in place of the “injured” Kedon Slovis. Whether that’s true or not that Slovis is not healthy enough to play is up debate – I think the staff was ready to yank the plug on the Slovis experiment. We’re not going to invest much in a quarterback that had offers from Hawaii, New Mexico State and UTEP coming out of the JUCO level, but do like that Retzlaff isn’t a statue, rushing for 515 yards at Riverside City College. West Virginia is allowing 21.6 FPPG to opposing QB1s this season. Last note here – practice reports suggested that Retzlaff was not only on even footing with Slovis in the offseason but was better in some cases. BYU just chose to roll with the veteran.
Best of the Rest – WR Keelan Marion ($3,400) Marion, a former Connecticut transfer with 43 career receptions on his resume, would start in place of Chase Roberts should he be unavailable. If Lassiter is out as well, WR Parker Kingston ($3,700) would start on the outside. He was target seven times with four receptions last week against Texas.
Injury Notes – Walking wounded for BYU. Kedon Slovis is already confirmed out. HC Kilani Sitake said this week that freshman LJ Martin has been practicing and closer to playing. Not worth the risk given how poorly BYU has run the football this season. At receiver, Keanu Hill has played in just four games and his status is similar to Martin. Game-time decision. Chase Roberts played 40 of 67 snaps last week against Texas, but he’s considered questionable. Leading receiver WR Darius Lassiter ($4,700) is the big one to keep tabs on here. The Kedon Slovis news was tweeted out on Thursday afternoon and then deleted. Turned out the original tweet was accurate with Slovis now confirmed not to be playing. Lassiter was also mentioned in that same tweet, though. All this to say we should probably just avoid the BYU headache altogether.
West Virginia:
Top Play(s) – RB CJ Donaldson ($6,200) Not messing around with the West Virginia backup RBs this week after last Saturday’s unmitigated disaster with Justin Johnson Jr. Ride the team’s horse in Donaldson who has now found the end-zone in six straight games. His bull-dozing rushing style should be favorable in this matchup with a BYU defense that is dead last in the Big 12 with a 17.5% missed tackle rate and 10th in the conference in yards allowed on the ground.
Fade – WR Hudson Clement ($4,900) No injury tag on DraftKings but Clement didn’t play a single snap last week against UCF. Not sure what is up there, and we have minimal interest in the WVU passing game as it is.
Bargain Bin – RB Jaheim White ($3,100) OK, I take back what I said above about not getting cute with the West Virginia backfield as this pricing is appealing and could allow for more exposure to the Washington – USC matchup. The 4-star freshman saw his most extended playing time since Week 1, finishing with 85 yards and a touchdown on nine rushing attempts. Has he taken over the RB2 job over Justin Johnson?
Pivot Play – QB Garrett Greene ($8,500) Running quarterbacks have given this BYU defense some troubles this season. Emory Jones went for 30 fantasy points in his matchup with the Cougars, rushing for 94 yards. Kansas QB Jalon Daniels scored 22 fantasy points with 54 yards on 11 attempts on the ground. Greene is seeing double-digit carries each week, resulting in 25 fantasy points or more in each of the last four games.
Best of the Rest – TE Kole Taylor ($4,500) I’m not sure how much West Virginia will put the ball in the air on Saturday as a 12.5-point favorite, facing an inept offense with a backup quarterback. But BYU is struggling to defend the tight end position this season, allowing 10 FPPG with three different players – Chamon Metayer, Luke Hasz, Jared Wiley – all scoring 12 or more fantasy points in their respective matchups. WR Devin Carter ($5,200) probably isn’t worth considering at $5.2k, but we’ve mentioned the uptick in production since moving to the slot – 23 of is 40 targets coming in the last three games.
Injury Notes – n/a
Other games featured on the slate:
BYU vs. West Virginia
Washington vs. USC
Kentucky vs. Mississippi State
Purdue vs. Michigan
LSU vs. Alabama
Miami vs. NC State
Become an All-American or Heisman Member and get access to our exclusive members-only content and an invite into theCFFsite Discord.