BYU vs. West Virginia
Point-Spread: WVU -12.5
O/U Total: 48.5
Implied Score: WVU 30.5 – BYU 18
Weather: 52 degrees / 5% rain / 6 mph winds
BYU:
Top Play(s) – RB Aidan Robbins ($3,900) With LJ Martin out due to injury, Robbins got the starting nod against Texas, rushing for 56 yards on 17 carries. Didn’t expect much against the No. 1 ranked rush defense in the Big 12 but the volume is notable. Just two carries went to BYU running backs not named Robbins last week. Should LJ Martin sit out tonight, Robbins gets a slightly better matchup this week and is cheap. RB1s are averaging 17.9 FPPG against West Virginia this season.
Fade – TE Isaac Rex ($4,600) If we want exposure to the BYU pass-catchers (we really don’t), we’re going cheap with a sub-$4k option. Rex’s numbers have trended downward since the opening month. 33 targets in Week’s 1-4. 14 targets in Week’s 5-9.
Bargain Bin – WR Kody Epps ($3,900) Minimal production for the junior slot receiver, but his reps continue to rise with each passing week since coming back from injury, running the second most routes of any BYU wideout against Texas. Epps may not have to contend for reps in the slot with Darius Lassiter either who is questionable for tonight.
Pivot Play – QB Jake Retzlaff ($5,500) Retzlaff will get the start on Saturday in place of the “injured” Kedon Slovis. Whether that’s true or not that Slovis is not healthy enough to play is up debate – I think the staff was ready to yank the plug on the Slovis experiment. We’re not going to invest much in a quarterback that had offers from Hawaii, New Mexico State and UTEP coming out of the JUCO level, but do like that Retzlaff isn’t a statue, rushing for 515 yards at Riverside City College. West Virginia is allowing 21.6 FPPG to opposing QB1s this season. Last note here – practice reports suggested that Retzlaff was not only on even footing with Slovis in the offseason but was better in some cases. BYU just chose to roll with the veteran.
Best of the Rest – WR Keelan Marion ($3,400) Marion, a former Connecticut transfer with 43 career receptions on his resume, would start in place of Chase Roberts should he be unavailable. If Lassiter is out as well, WR Parker Kingston ($3,700) would start on the outside. He was target seven times with four receptions last week against Texas.
Injury Notes – Walking wounded for BYU. Kedon Slovis is already confirmed out. HC Kilani Sitake said this week that freshman LJ Martin has been practicing and closer to playing. Not worth the risk given how poorly BYU has run the football this season. At receiver, Keanu Hill has played in just four games and his status is similar to Martin. Game-time decision. Chase Roberts played 40 of 67 snaps last week against Texas, but he’s considered questionable. Leading receiver WR Darius Lassiter ($4,700) is the big one to keep tabs on here. The Kedon Slovis news was tweeted out on Thursday afternoon and then deleted. Turned out the original tweet was accurate with Slovis now confirmed not to be playing. Lassiter was also mentioned in that same tweet, though. All this to say we should probably just avoid the BYU headache altogether.
West Virginia:
Top Play(s) – RB CJ Donaldson ($6,200) Not messing around with the West Virginia backup RBs this week after last Saturday’s unmitigated disaster with Justin Johnson Jr. Ride the team’s horse in Donaldson who has now found the end-zone in six straight games. His bull-dozing rushing style should be favorable in this matchup with a BYU defense that is dead last in the Big 12 with a 17.5% missed tackle rate and 10th in the conference in yards allowed on the ground.
Fade – WR Hudson Clement ($4,900) No injury tag on DraftKings but Clement didn’t play a single snap last week against UCF. Not sure what is up there, and we have minimal interest in the WVU passing game as it is.
Bargain Bin – RB Jaheim White ($3,100) OK, I take back what I said above about not getting cute with the West Virginia backfield as this pricing is appealing and could allow for more exposure to the Washington – USC matchup. The 4-star freshman saw his most extended playing time since Week 1, finishing with 85 yards and a touchdown on nine rushing attempts. Has he taken over the RB2 job over Justin Johnson?
Pivot Play – QB Garrett Greene ($8,500) Running quarterbacks have given this BYU defense some troubles this season. Emory Jones went for 30 fantasy points in his matchup with the Cougars, rushing for 94 yards. Kansas QB Jalon Daniels scored 22 fantasy points with 54 yards on 11 attempts on the ground. Greene is seeing double-digit carries each week, resulting in 25 fantasy points or more in each of the last four games.
Best of the Rest – TE Kole Taylor ($4,500) I’m not sure how much West Virginia will put the ball in the air on Saturday as a 12.5-point favorite, facing an inept offense with a backup quarterback. But BYU is struggling to defend the tight end position this season, allowing 10 FPPG with three different players – Chamon Metayer, Luke Hasz, Jared Wiley – all scoring 12 or more fantasy points in their respective matchups. WR Devin Carter ($5,200) probably isn’t worth considering at $5.2k, but we’ve mentioned the uptick in production since moving to the slot – 23 of is 40 targets coming in the last three games.
Injury Notes – n/a
Kansas vs. Iowa State
Point-Spread: ISU -2.5
O/U Total: 52.5
Implied Score: ISU 27.5 – KU 25
Weather: 50 degrees / 2% rain / 5 mph winds
Kansas:
Top Play(s) – QB Jason Bean ($6,700) Is this not the most obvious letdown spot, coming off the major home win against Top 10 Oklahoma, and now traveling to Ames for a road night game versus a team that’s on a three-game win streak? Bean gets the slight nod here as Kansas’ top play as it’s tough to fit Devin Neal into our lineups and still have exposure to some of the other higher scoring games on the slate. This is not a great matchup, though, as Iowa State is 12th in pass D success rate, 24th in EPA per pass play and giving up only 16 FPPG to opposing QB1s.
Fade – WRs. Evenly distributed target share amongst the Kansas trio of Luke Grimm, Lawrence Arnold, and Quentin Skinner, separated by just eight targets between them. Iowa State collectively allows 34.1 FPPG to opposing wide receivers this season which is 40th in the country. Just one wideout has surpassed 20 fantasy points all season against the Cyclones.
Bargain Bin – TE Mason Fairchild ($4,100) Fairchild is second on the team in every receiving category and has been more involved the last two games with a combined 157 yards and two scores on 14 targets. Iowa State has allowed one tight end – Chamon Metayer – to score double-digit fantasy points.
Pivot Play – See below on Hishaw.
Best of the Rest – RB Devin Neal ($6,800) Kansas must establish the run tonight, because Jason Bean dropping back 30 times is not a recipe for success against an opportunistic secondary. Neal is coming off his best performance of the year with 112 rushing yards on 25 attempts against a good Oklahoma defense. The problem with Neal is two-fold. (1) Iowa State has been just as good as the Sooners against the run, especially of late. (2) Neal continues to give way to backup RB Daniel Hishaw ($5,100) once the team enters the red zone. Only a slight 22-18 edge to Neal in rushing attempts once the Jayhawks get inside the 20.
Injury Notes – n/a
Iowa State:
Top Play(s) – RB Eli Sanders ($4,200) Sanders at this pricing provides a ton of flexibility for the rest of the roster. The 205-pound junior has taken a slight hold of the Iowa State backfield with double-digit carries in each of the last three games. Kansas doesn’t do much well defensively, particularly against the run where the Jayhawks are 128th in EPA per play and 122nd in rush D success rate.
Fade – n/a. Cop-out answer but Iowa State options are all priced down to a point to where everyone is considerable.
Bargain Bin – TE Benjamin Brahmer ($3,000) Iowa State has had plenty of success at the tight end position during Matt Campbell’s tenure and might’ve found another in 6-foot-7 freshman Benjamin Brahmer. At least three targets in all but one game this season, coming off a season-high 69 receiving yards last week against Baylor.
Pivot Play – RB Cartevious Norton ($4,100) Sanders is the RB1, but Norton found his way into the end-zone twice against Baylor last week and remains part of this running back rotation despite not living up to his 4-star billing in his career to this point. Kansas allows 29.4 FPPG to running backs, 30th most in the country.
Best of the Rest – WR Jayden Higgins ($4,300) I think there will be heavy ownership with Higgins tonight who has played extremely well the last two games with a combined 146 receiving yards and eight targets in each of the last two weeks. WR Jaylin Noel ($5,300) is a strong pivot off Higgins in GPPs as the team leader in targets (61) and receptions (42). Preferable on DK in full-point PPR formats as Noel averages just 9.1 YPC with an aDOT of just 6.3 yards. I’d get yelled at by the CFFSite Discord if I did not mention QB Rocco Becht ($5,300) who is probably the best spend-down option at the position. We’ve mentioned how poor Kansas is against the pass, allowing 24 FPPG to opposing quarterbacks.
Injury Notes – n/a
Washington vs. USC
Point-Spread: UW -3
O/U Total: 76.5
Implied Score: UW 40 – USC 36.5
Weather: 74 degrees / 0% rain / 10 mph winds
Washington:
Top Play(s) – WR Ja’Lynn Polk ($7,700) Polk has been the team’s best receiver of late with three-straight 100-yard receiving performances, now having hit the century mark in six of eight games played. No reason he can’t make it four straight should Jalen McMillan sit, facing a USC defense that has allowed eight different receivers to score 20 fantasy points or more against them.
Fade – Backup RBs. A game total over 70 means everyone in the Washington starting lineup is a potential option. Since Week 5, backup Washington running backs have combined for 11 rushing attempts. Dillon Johnson has 62 in that same span. We’re not seeing the same split we had a year ago with Cameron Davis and Wayne Taulapapa. This is Johnson’s backfield.
Bargain Bin – WR Germie Bernard ($3,900) Assuming McMillan is out tonight, Bernard will get the start in his place and has already proven capable this season with his 9-109-0 performance on 11 targets against Arizona back in Week 5. I’d suspect very high ownership here with his pricing.
Pivot Play – RB Dillon Johnson ($7,300) Passing game will get the headlines and highest ownership on the slate, but don’t forget about Johnson. We mentioned above about the high market share in the backfield for the former Mississippi State transfer. Not surprisingly, USC also allows a ton of fantasy points to running backs (23.2 FPPG). Five RBs have scored 22 fantasy points or more against the Trojans this season, most of which have come in the last month.
Best of the Rest – QB Michael Penix Jr. ($10,600) I think there are enough cheap QBs that we can bypass Penix Jr. and Caleb Williams on this slate. USC is allowing 24.1 FPPG to opposing quarterbacks and those same QBs are averaging 12 fantasy points above their seasonal average when facing the Trojans. WR Rome Odunze ($8,800) has hit 100 receiving yards in five of eight games this season and shined brightest in Washington’s biggest matchup of the year with 128 yards and two scores against Oregon. This is another high-profile game. Odunze should be the GPP play as he’ll have less ownership than Polk.
Injury Notes – WR Jalen McMillan ($6,400) McMillan is unplayable at this point even if news comes out pregame that he’ll be suited up. We saw last week that he continues to deal with the leg injury that has troubled him all year, resulting in just 12 snaps played against Stanford. Washington previews for this game don’t mention McMillan much so I’d anticipate either a snap count or in street clothes.
USC:
Top Play(s) – QB Caleb Williams ($10,700) Not often do you see an implied team total of five touchdowns and there might not be a playable option. Such might be the case with USC with Williams’ inflated salary, though he’s our highest projected player of the entire weekend in college fantasy football. Stats kind of go out the window when discussing the future No. 1 pick in the NFL Draft but would be remissed if I didn’t mention that Washington’s secondary grades out well this season, ranking 33rd in EPA per pass play defensively and giving up just 17.4 FPPG to quarterbacks. Adds a little fuel to the strategy of not paying up for Williams.
Fade – WR Mario Williams ($6,100) I think Williams has been benched at this point, giving way to 5-star freshman Zachariah Branch in the slot. Just 15 total routes in the last two games combined. I’d debate even considering Williams if he was $3.1k.
Bargain Bin – TE Lake McRee ($3,200) Routes run have gone up considerably for McRee in the last month of the season and 41% of his season-long targets have come in the last two games alone.
Pivot Play – RBs. I wouldn’t stack the room together but could consider either Marshawn Lloyd or Austin Jones as the two were featured on the field at the same time last weekend against Cal – first time that happened since Week 1. Washington is only allowing a combined 25.3 fantasy points per game to opposing backfields but rank 103rd in rush D success rate and 105th in EPA per run play. The run defense is decidedly the weak link of that side of the ball for Washington.
Best of the Rest – WRs. Nobody is cheap and USC spreads the ball around as much as any team in the country, so it’s really not necessary to have any exposure to Trojan wideouts. Tahj Washington leads the team with just 16% target share which is right in line with the WR1 of the last three years under Lincoln Riley. Washington and Brenden Rice combine for 14 of the 26 receiving touchdowns for USC this season, so that’s the direction to go in if choosing someone from this group. Eight Pac-12 receivers have scored 17 fantasy points or more against Washington, and the Huskies are 130th in pass attempts allowed per game.
Injury Notes – n/a
Kentucky vs. Mississippi State
Point-Spread: UK -4.5
O/U Total: 45.5
Implied Score: UK 25 – MSU 20.5
Weather: 65 degrees / 0% rain / 2 mph winds
Kentucky:
Top Play(s) – RB Ray Davis ($7,600) We know we’re getting 15+ touches from Ray Davis on Saturday night, it’s a matter of how effective those carries will be. MSU is average across the board when it comes to defending the run, ranking 71st in rush D success rate and allowing 15.1 FPPG to RB1s. No running back to date has scored more than 20 fantasy points on the Bulldogs.
Fade – Backups. Heavy reliance on the Kentucky starters offensively. Ray Davis has 66% of the team’s rushing volume and 9 of the 12 rushing touchdowns. The trio of Dane Key, Barion Brown and Tayvion Robinson combine for 62% of the target share.
Bargain Bin – TE Jordan Dingle ($3,400) Season-highs last week for Dingle who was targeted five times, running 30 routes against Tennessee which was the most in a game all year. Mississippi State is allowing 10.6 FPPG to opposing tight ends.
Pivot Play – QB Devin Leary ($6,000) I was heavy on the under for Devin Leary’s passing prop which he blew out of the water unfortunately with 372 yards and two touchdowns. Are the issues with the Kentucky passing game suddenly fixed or was that an example of a team with an extra week of preparation coming off the bye and game script working in his favor as the Wildcats were trailing Tennessee the entire game. Mississippi State is allowing 24 FPPG to opposing QBs this season, most of any defense on the slate (yes, even more than USC) and are 128th in pass D success rate.
Best of the Rest – WRs. Dane Key has been the best of the UK receivers of late, coming off a season-best 113 yards and a touchdown on eight targets in the loss to Tennessee last week. Key is tops on the team in snaps played and routes run in 2023. Where Key also gets the nod is the matchup with MSU as outside receivers have dominated this Bulldog secondary – Malik Nabers 48.9 fantasy points, Xavier Legette 35.9 fantasy points and Tet McMillan 30.9 fantasy points. Pivoting to the higher priced Barion Brown, who leads the team in targets (54) and plays on the outside as well, makes some sense.
Injury Notes – n/a
Mississippi State:
Top Play(s) – QB Mike Wright ($5,500) Cheap dual-threat quarterbacks are always going to pop in optimal lineups. Wright has shown his capabilities on the ground the last two games with over 130 rushing yards on 23 attempts. Kentucky grades out very poorly against the pass, ranking 128th in pass D success rate and 87th in EPA per pass play. This is also a quarterback that has had success against this Kentucky defense with over 300 total yards and two touchdowns last season with Vanderbilt.
Fade – WR Lideatrick Griffin ($5,500) Griffin’s weekly average with Will Rogers at quarterback – 5 receptions, 82 yards, 0.6 touchdowns on 6.6 targets per. Griffin’s weekly average the last three games with Wright at QB – 4 receptions, 34 yards, 0 TDs on 4.3 targets. Simply not worth the price after the change at quarterback.
Bargain Bin – WR Justin Robinson ($3,800) The former Georgia transfer was shut out last week against Auburn but was targeted six times and ran the most routes of any Mississippi State receiver. That’s been the case for the last two weeks. At some point in the season, though, routes run only mean so much, and Robinson has minimal production to go along with all of his time on the field. TE Antonio Harmon ($3,100), a converted wide receiver, is fourth on the team in routes run. The only reason Harmon is mentioned is that Kentucky has allowed the fifth most fantasy points to opposing tight ends among teams playing this weekend. Brock Bowers also heavily influences those season-long statistics.
Pivot Play – WR Zavion Thomas ($4,600) Thomas is now second on the team in both targets (35) and routes run. Over half of Thomas’ targets this season (18) have come with Mike Wright at quarterback, as the sophomore is coming off a season high 9-112-1 performance against Auburn.
Best of the Rest – RB Jeffrey Pittman ($3,800) The former JUCO transfer got the starting nod over true freshman Seth Davis last week against Auburn, rushing for 51 yards on 10 carries. Kentucky allows just 13.7 FPPG to opposing RB1s this season and are 36th in rush D success rate, so this isn’t a spot to prioritize a Mississippi State. Pittman was targeted twice in the passing game, running the fourth most routes on the team.
Injury Notes – Don’t expect to see Will Rogers or Jo’Quavious Marks on Saturday. I think we’ve seen the last of both in a Mississippi State uniform.
Purdue vs. Michigan
Point-Spread: UM -32.5
O/U Total: 52.5
Implied Score: UM 42.5 – Purd 10
Weather: 49 degrees / 2% rain / 5 mph winds
Purdue:
Surprised Purdue’s implied team total is even this high in a game where the Boilermakers are severely overmatched all over the field with an offense that is trending downwards in a hurry the last four games. And then their head coach decided to run his mouth about the Michigan sign stealing scandal going on currently. I’d be shocked if Purdue manages to find the end-zone on Saturday.
Michigan:
Top Play(s) – QB JJ McCarthy ($8,700) Along the same lines that we mentioned in our Main Slate writeup with Jordan Travis, McCarthy is squarely in the Heisman conversation, and I’d suspect Michigan to continue to rack up gaudy numbers offensively to boost his resume. Along with some other motivating factors that have occurred in the last week or so. McCarthy was surgical against Michigan State with 287 yards and four touchdowns on 78% completion rate. Purdue allows 22.1 FPPG to quarterbacks this season which is second most among defenses on this slate.
Fade – RB Donovan Edwards ($5,200) I’ve been far more impressed with RB Kalel Mullings ($3,100) and true freshman Benjamin Hall over the former 5-star who’s been lacking in confidence this season after finding the end-zone just once in eight games. Prior to the injury, Mullings had assumed the RB2 role over Edwards.
Bargain Bin – See above on Kalel Mullings. Garbage time reps should be available for the top four running backs. Could also roll with TE AJ Barner ($3,300) who is coming off a season’s best eight receptions on nine targets for 99 yards and a score. Those numbers were boosted by playing a Michigan State back seven that allows the most fantasy points in the country to opposing tight ends. But it also seems like the Indiana transfer is starting to find his place within this offense.
Pivot Play – WR Cornelius Johnson ($4,700) I’ve never been a huge fan of Cornelius Johnson, as he’s had several bone-headed drops in his career, but he plays the entire three quarters each week until Michigan rests its starters in the final period. Johnson leads the team in routes run and tied for second in targets (29).
Best of the Rest – RB Blake Corum ($8,500) If this is College Fantasy, of course you’re not taking Blake Corum out of your lineup. But he’s not seeing the volume needed to hit value as the highest priced running back on the slate, and this won’t be a competitive matchup either. You’re not going to hurt your lineup having Corum there but might be wise to invest elsewhere. TE Colston Loveland ($4,800) is another ascending player in the Michigan offense, now with 173 receiving yards and four touchdowns in the last three games. Purdue has allowed multiple B1G tight ends to score over 20 fantasy points against them this season. WR Roman Wilson ($6,500) leads Michigan in every receiving category and is a potential option each week.
Injury Notes – n/a. We’ll find out two hours before kickoff. RB Kalel Mullings is the primary name of note here. There’s been next to nothing said about this football game this week from Michigan writers as they’re all focused on getting clicks with signal gate.
LSU vs. Alabama
Point-Spread: Bama -3
O/U Total: 61.5
Implied Score: Bama 32 – LSU 29
Weather: 67 degrees / 0% rain / 2 mph winds
LSU:
Top Play(s) – WR Malik Nabers ($8,900) While not strictly a slot receiver, Nabers does run 49% of his routes inside, and those types have been successful against the Tide this season, namely Tennessee’s Squirrel White who had 27.9 fantasy points in his matchup. Team leader in every receiving category aside from touchdowns for the Tigers.
Fade – RB Logan Diggs ($6,400) Not a complete fade as LSU has one of the best offensive lines in the country and all predictions have this matchup as a shootout on Saturday night, but there are plenty of cheaper options at RB that you can bypass Diggs here. Alabama has yet to allow a running back to score more than 14 fantasy points this season. The Tide are 6th in rush D success rate.
Bargain Bin – TE Mason Taylor ($4,000) In a similar vein to Nabers above, there seem to be holes to attack in the Alabama back seven over the middle of the field because tight ends have also found some level of success against the Tide. Ja’Tavion Sanders and Jake Johnson combined for 30 fantasy points in their matchups. Against Tennessee last time out, McCallan Castles caught a touchdown. Taylor is third on the team in receptions (20) and fourth in targets (26).
Pivot Play – WR Brian Thomas ($7,800) Thomas has been somewhat quiet the last three weeks since his scorching start to the year with just 10 targets in that stretch. Team leader with 11 receiving touchdowns. 10.5-point projection for WR3 Kyren Lacy ($4,600) who is third on the team in routes run and targets, coming off a season-high 111 receiving yards in his last SEC matchup against Auburn.
Best of the Rest – QB Jayden Daniels ($10,100) Daniels is just behind Caleb Williams as our second-highest projected player in college fantasy this week, and if LSU is to win this game, it will be because of the arm and legs of the senior QB. Alabama is allowing just 15.6 FPPG to opposing quarterbacks and are 14th in pass D success rate, so I can rationalize fading Daniels in this spot for a cheaper option. Running quarterbacks like Jaxson Dart and KJ Jefferson had minimal success on the ground against the Tide in their respective matchups. All three predictions from LSU writers have the Tigers scoring in the 40s on Saturday, so expect Daniels to have a big performance and maybe a Heisman-winning moment.
Injury Notes – n/a. All good on the LSU front, even getting one of their starting offensive linemen back.
Alabama:
Top Play(s) – QB Jalen Milroe ($8,300) Best mid-tier option at the QB position with a combination of floor and upside. We obviously know the struggles the LSU secondary has had this season, ranking 92nd in pass D success rate, 120th in EPA per pass play and giving up 20.6 FPPG to opposing QBs. The surprising part about Milroe is that he’s giving us solid production without the utilization of his legs with negative rushing yards over the last three games. That hamstring rumor from a few weeks back was likely accurate.
Fade – Backup RBs. I thought maybe we’d see Justice Haynes featured a bit more after his mini-breakout against Arkansas, but that was far from the case. Just two running backs touched the football in a competitive matchup against Tennessee, with Jase McClellan ($6,300) holding a 27-6 advantage over Roydell Williams. As for the Alabama RB1, McClellan has a strong matchup against an LSU defense that has allowed all but one team this season to hit 100 yards rushing. The Tigers are 105th in rush D success rate.
Bargain Bin – TE Amari NiBlack ($3,400) LSU is allowing the single highest FPPG average in the country to TE1s this season at 12.2. NiBlack is third on the team in targets (19) with three receiving touchdowns.
Pivot Play – WR Jermaine Burton ($6,200) Because Milroe isn’t utilizing his legs much lately, I think it’d be in the best interest to pair him with a Bama receiver in a GPP. And Burton has the most upside of the group, with 60 or more receiving yards in four of the last five games with a team-high 20.5 aDOT and 22.1 YPC average. Receivers that have had the most success against LSU this season? Vertical threats. Tre Harris and Keon Coleman scored the most fantasy points against the Tigers this season.
Best of the Rest – WR Isaiah Bond ($5,300) The pivot to the pivot would be Bond who leads the team in targets and second in routes run for the Tide. We mentioned bigger-bodied receivers have scored the most fantasy points against LSU this season. Well after the top two, the next three highest-scoring wideouts vs. the Tigers all play in the slot. I don’t think I’d stack the Alabama WRs together, but pairing one with Milroe is sound for a GPP.
Injury Notes – n/a
Miami vs. NC State
Point-Spread: Mia -5.5
O/U Total: 43.5
Implied Score: Mia 24.5 – NC St 19
Weather: 54 degrees / 2% rain / 3 mph winds
Miami:
Top Play(s) – WR Jacolby George ($4,800) Really struggled with selecting a top play for Miami and will probably just avoid the headaches at every position as I suspect this will be a lower-scoring affair with two good defenses and teams with major question marks on offense. At receiver, if I’m selecting someone on the Miami side, I’ll look to a discount with George who had a team-high eight targets against Virginia last week.
Fade – RB Mark Fletcher Jr. ($6,900) I originally had Tyler Van Dyke in this spot (more on that later) …and then saw the pricing for Fletcher. I will have absolutely zero exposure to Fletcher at this salary. Obviously talented as a 4-star recruit and former Ohio State commit, and did play well last week with 48 yards and a touchdown on 10 attempts against Virginia. But this occurred with both Henry Parrish Jr. and Don Chaney Jr. being limited. HC Mario Cristobal has confirmed both players are good to go for Saturday. With the possibility of four running backs sharing the workload, I might be out on the entire Miami backfield.
Bargain Bin – WR Colbie Young ($4,200) DraftKings and their propensity to discount Miami receivers. Even if we’re not high on the Miami passing game this week, it’s simply too low of a salary for a player with 32 receptions and four touchdowns this season. WR Brashard Smith ($4,000) has also seen an uptick in playing time in the last month, now with 12 of his 17 receptions coming in the last four weeks.
Pivot Play – WR Xavier Restrepo ($7,300) Will likely have very little ownership Saturday given the prices of the two outside receivers in Jacolby George and Colbie Young who are at a 40% discount in terms of salary. Restrepo still leads the team in every receiving category, with 19 more receptions than the next closest Miami receiver. Virginia’s Malik Washington did score 39 fantasy points against NC State earlier in the year and he operates in the slot as Restrepo does 94% of the time.
Best of the Rest – QB Tyler Van Dyke ($8,100) Bad vibes right now apparently in the Miami locker room. Rumor has it the group might be fractured some as players are holding a grudge over Tyler Van Dyke’s offseason rumors that he was headed to Alabama and securing the bag. Didn’t happen, obviously, but recent struggles with the Miami passing game have reignited that topic in the locker room. Drama aside, this is also a poor matchup with an NC State defense that is allowing just 17 FPPG to opposing quarterbacks. Van Dyke hasn’t looked the same since the injury.
Injury Notes – n/a
NC State:
Top Play(s) – WR Kevin Concepcion ($6,300) It’s painfully obvious that Miami is going to force someone else aside from Concepcion to beat them on Saturday, as he’s truly the only fantasy-relevant player on the roster currently. 6 of the team’s 11 receiving touchdowns this season with 27% of the NC State’s target share. WRs, in particular slot WRs, have found success against the Hurricane’s this season, giving up 21.6 FPPG with Malik Washington, Gage Larvadain and Amad Anderson Jr. combining for 65 fantasy points.
Fade – RBs. We mentioned in the preseason that running backs are a complete non-factor in the Robert Anae offense and this season is playing out just as expected. NC State is 95th in rush yards per game, much of which have come from the quarterback position, and Miami is 17th nationally in rush D success rate.
Bargain Bin – n/a. We have two players projected to score more than seven fantasy points in this matchup. How in the world is NC State 5-3?
Pivot Play – QB MJ Morris ($6,500) Robert Anae has produced some exceptional fantasy quarterbacks over the years, from Garrett Shrader to Brennan Armstrong, and all the way back to BYU days with Taysom Hill. MJ Morris is a better thrower of the football than all three of those quarterbacks. The issue is that he doesn’t run the football nearly enough to be fantasy-relevant, and as we’ve stated above, the WR corps is underwhelming to put it kindly. The Hurricanes are allowing just 16.9 FPPG to quarterbacks this season and generating 3.5 sacks per game which ranks 8th nationally. Just don’t see a path to success here.
Best of the Rest – n/a. We’re out on the running backs. Mostly out on the quarterback. And there truthfully isn’t a receiver or tight end of consequence on this team outside of KC Concepcion.
Injury Notes – n/a.
