theCFFsite’s Heisman Members can view the full article here, and Heisman/All-American Members can access the Week 11 MAC Player Projections here.
Become an All-American or Heisman Member and get access to our exclusive members-only content and an invite into theCFFsite Discord.
Ball State vs. Northern Illinois
Point-Spread: NIU -10.5
O/U Total: 43.5
Implied Score: NIU 27 – BSU 16.5
Weather: 49 degrees / 14% rain / 11 mph winds
Ball State:
Top Play(s) – RB Marquez Cooper ($7,400) Finally we’re seeing Cooper get the rushing volume that we anticipated prior to the season with 51 rushing attempts in the last two weeks. Even as a 10.5-point underdog, Ball State won’t allow Kiael Kelly attempt more than 20 passes in this matchup – that’s a recipe for disaster. NIU is 112th in rush D success rate this season as clearly evidenced last week by allowing over 200 yards on the ground to CMU’s Marion Lukes.
Fade – WRs. Two-game slate you have to at least entertain the thought of a Ball State receiver. Not on a three-gamer. The last time a Ball State wideout surpassed 50 receiving yards in a game was October 8th.
Bargain Bin – TE Tanner Koziol ($4,500) Kiael Kelly took accountability after the loss to Bowling Green last week saying he needed to do a better job of getting the ball to his sophomore tight end who was not targeted a single time. Comments like these make you wonder if the team tries to force feed the ball to its best pass-catcher the next time they take the field. We know Koziol is plenty capable, catching seven touchdown passes last year as a freshman.
Pivot Play – QB Kiael Kelly ($6,500) Kelly is a wide receiver forced into playing quarterback because this coaching staff thought it was a good idea in the offseason to bring in Layne Hatcher as their starter. Banking on Layne Hatcher as your QB1 is how you find yourself unemployed in the offseason, which likely will be the case for HC Mike Neu. That being said, Kelly is a tremendous athlete and that always provides fantasy value at the QB position. NIU struggled with another dual-threat last week with Jase Bauer rushing for 106 yards and two scores on 20 attempts.
Best of the Rest – WR Ahmad Edwards ($4,000) IF, and that’s a big if, I even considered the thought of a Ball State receiver, I’m looking at the discounted option in Edwards who played 68 of 70 snaps last week against Bowling Green. WR Qian Magwood ($5,500) is simply too expensive for limited production, despite leading the team in all receiving categories.
Injury Notes – n/a
Northern Illinois:
Top Play(s) – RB Antario Brown ($6,200) When healthy, Antario Brown is one of the best running backs in college football at the G5 level, as evidenced by his 167-yard performance last week against Central Michigan. Ball State does pose a challenge as they’re ranked No. 2 in the MAC in yards allowed per game on the ground, but Terion Stewart looked just fine against the Cardinals, averaging 6.1 yards a carry, before leaving the game with an injury. Ball State allows 17.1 FPPG to RB1s this season and are 73rd in rush D success rate.
Fade – RB Gavin Williams ($5,100) Only way Gavin Williams hits value at $5.1k is if Antario Brown gets hurt. Which…isn’t necessarily out of the realm of possibilities as Brown has left a game injured at least twice this season. There’s a reason he’s been dubbed the Ja’Quinden Jackson of G5 running backs. Should Brown remain unscathed throughout the contest, he’s the team’s workhorse with Williams only coming in on passing downs.
Bargain Bin – WR Jalen Johnson ($3,700) The lanky 6-foot-3 redshirt freshman starts in place of the injury Kacper Rutkiewicz and has been targeted 13 times in the last two weeks. He’ll get the start again on Tuesday as we note in the injury section below.
Pivot Play – QB Rocky Lombardi ($7,000) Lombardi was the slate winner last week if you started him over De’Quan Finn, throwing for 298 yards and three touchdowns in the loss to Central Michigan. Biggest difference this week for me is that NIU is a double-digit favorite whereas the Huskies were in the trailing position much of last week. Will he need to throw it 35 times again? Ball State is only allowing 17 FPPG to quarterbacks this season, but much of which due to the lack of difference makers they’ve faced at the position. The Cardinals’ secondary does not grade out well at all, ranked 118th in EPA per pass play defensively.
Best of the Rest – WR Trayvon Rudolph ($6,000) This is the version of Trayvon Rudolph we saw as a freshman in 2021. 23 of his season-long 52 targets have come in the last two games with over 200 receiving yards. Ball State has allowed four different receivers to score 20 or more fantasy points against them this season. TE Grayson Barnes ($4,100) is a tight end in name only, with a slender 220-pound build that rarely lines up inline to block. Caught a touchdown in three of the last four games, facing a defense that has allowed three tight ends to score 10 points or more this season. WR Davis Patterson ($4,300) will likely see the lowest ownership of any of the NIU starters despite being tied for the team lead in routes run.
Injury Notes – WR Kacper Rutkiewicz ($5,700) Not on the game week depth chart again so, barring a major surprise, expect Rutkiewicz to miss his fourth straight game. Also, remember there are three players suspended from the Northern Illinois side because of the post-game fight with Central Michigan last week. All the major contributors from NIU are listed so I think we’re safe from that aspect.
Central Michigan vs. Western Michigan
Point-Spread: WMU -5
O/U Total: 51.5
Implied Score: WMU 28 – CMU 23.5
Weather: 46 degrees / 18% rain / 6 mph winds
Central Michigan:
Top Play(s) –
Become an All-American or Heisman Member and get access to our exclusive members-only content and an invite into theCFFsite Discord.