Ball State vs. Northern Illinois
Point-Spread: NIU -10.5
O/U Total: 43.5
Implied Score: NIU 27 – BSU 16.5
Weather: 49 degrees / 14% rain / 11 mph winds
Ball State:
Top Play(s) – RB Marquez Cooper ($7,400) Finally we’re seeing Cooper get the rushing volume that we anticipated prior to the season with 51 rushing attempts in the last two weeks. Even as a 10.5-point underdog, Ball State won’t allow Kiael Kelly attempt more than 20 passes in this matchup – that’s a recipe for disaster. NIU is 112th in rush D success rate this season as clearly evidenced last week by allowing over 200 yards on the ground to CMU’s Marion Lukes.
Fade – WRs. Two-game slate you have to at least entertain the thought of a Ball State receiver. Not on a three-gamer. The last time a Ball State wideout surpassed 50 receiving yards in a game was October 8th.
Bargain Bin – TE Tanner Koziol ($4,500) Kiael Kelly took accountability after the loss to Bowling Green last week saying he needed to do a better job of getting the ball to his sophomore tight end who was not targeted a single time. Comments like these make you wonder if the team tries to force feed the ball to its best pass-catcher the next time they take the field. We know Koziol is plenty capable, catching seven touchdown passes last year as a freshman.
Pivot Play – QB Kiael Kelly ($6,500) Kelly is a wide receiver forced into playing quarterback because this coaching staff thought it was a good idea in the offseason to bring in Layne Hatcher as their starter. Banking on Layne Hatcher as your QB1 is how you find yourself unemployed in the offseason, which likely will be the case for HC Mike Neu. That being said, Kelly is a tremendous athlete and that always provides fantasy value at the QB position. NIU struggled with another dual-threat last week with Jase Bauer rushing for 106 yards and two scores on 20 attempts.
Best of the Rest – WR Ahmad Edwards ($4,000) IF, and that’s a big if, I even considered the thought of a Ball State receiver, I’m looking at the discounted option in Edwards who played 68 of 70 snaps last week against Bowling Green. WR Qian Magwood ($5,500) is simply too expensive for limited production, despite leading the team in all receiving categories.
Injury Notes – n/a
Northern Illinois:
Top Play(s) – RB Antario Brown ($6,200) When healthy, Antario Brown is one of the best running backs in college football at the G5 level, as evidenced by his 167-yard performance last week against Central Michigan. Ball State does pose a challenge as they’re ranked No. 2 in the MAC in yards allowed per game on the ground, but Terion Stewart looked just fine against the Cardinals, averaging 6.1 yards a carry, before leaving the game with an injury. Ball State allows 17.1 FPPG to RB1s this season and are 73rd in rush D success rate.
Fade – RB Gavin Williams ($5,100) Only way Gavin Williams hits value at $5.1k is if Antario Brown gets hurt. Which…isn’t necessarily out of the realm of possibilities as Brown has left a game injured at least twice this season. There’s a reason he’s been dubbed the Ja’Quinden Jackson of G5 running backs. Should Brown remain unscathed throughout the contest, he’s the team’s workhorse with Williams only coming in on passing downs.
Bargain Bin – WR Jalen Johnson ($3,700) The lanky 6-foot-3 redshirt freshman starts in place of the injury Kacper Rutkiewicz and has been targeted 13 times in the last two weeks. He’ll get the start again on Tuesday as we note in the injury section below.
Pivot Play – QB Rocky Lombardi ($7,000) Lombardi was the slate winner last week if you started him over De’Quan Finn, throwing for 298 yards and three touchdowns in the loss to Central Michigan. Biggest difference this week for me is that NIU is a double-digit favorite whereas the Huskies were in the trailing position much of last week. Will he need to throw it 35 times again? Ball State is only allowing 17 FPPG to quarterbacks this season, but much of which due to the lack of difference makers they’ve faced at the position. The Cardinals’ secondary does not grade out well at all, ranked 118th in EPA per pass play defensively.
Best of the Rest – WR Trayvon Rudolph ($6,000) This is the version of Trayvon Rudolph we saw as a freshman in 2021. 23 of his season-long 52 targets have come in the last two games with over 200 receiving yards. Ball State has allowed four different receivers to score 20 or more fantasy points against them this season. TE Grayson Barnes ($4,100) is a tight end in name only, with a slender 220-pound build that rarely lines up inline to block. Caught a touchdown in three of the last four games, facing a defense that has allowed three tight ends to score 10 points or more this season. WR Davis Patterson ($4,300) will likely see the lowest ownership of any of the NIU starters despite being tied for the team lead in routes run.
Injury Notes – WR Kacper Rutkiewicz ($5,700) Not on the game week depth chart again so, barring a major surprise, expect Rutkiewicz to miss his fourth straight game. Also, remember there are three players suspended from the Northern Illinois side because of the post-game fight with Central Michigan last week. All the major contributors from NIU are listed so I think we’re safe from that aspect.
Central Michigan vs. Western Michigan
Point-Spread: WMU -5
O/U Total: 51.5
Implied Score: WMU 28 – CMU 23.5
Weather: 46 degrees / 18% rain / 6 mph winds
Central Michigan:
Top Play(s) – QB Jase Bauer ($7,500) Surprised to see Bauer listed here and not Marion Lukes? High game total (for a MAC game this year) with CMU being slight underdogs dictates this suggestion. That, along with Western Michigan’s struggles in the secondary this season, allowing 23.7 FPPG to quarterbacks and ranking 94th in pass D success rate. Bauer is a strong GPP play here as I think folks will look towards cheaper QB options.
Fade – WR Tyson Davis ($5,400) We thought Davis would be a sneaky play last week against NIU after his performance against Ball State in Week 8 with six receptions on eight targets but wound up not playing with an undisclosed injury. CMU is not effective enough throwing the football to risk playing a wide receiver that is questionable. He’s not listed on the depth chart either this week, fwiw.
Bargain Bin – TE Mitchell Collier ($3,500) The only CMU player under $5k that I might even remotely consider playing, though he ran a season-low four routes last week against NIU in what was a run-heavy approach. No tight end has scored more than 8 fantasy points against WMU this season.
Pivot Play – WR Jesse Prewitt III ($5,300) or WR Chris Parker ($5,000) Been a revolving door at the WR3 spot for Central Michigan this season, with Prewitt and Parker being the two constants in the starting lineup. Western Michigan has allowed the 18th most fantasy points to wide receivers in college football this season and game script dictates CMU throwing more than 15 times like last week. I doubt many will be playing either guy on Tuesday.
Best of the Rest – RB Marion Lukes ($6,000) Hoping we have someone with boots on the ground to let us know if Myles Bailey is suited up or not on Tuesday, but doubt there is more than 500 people in the stands for this doozy of a matchup. Should Bailey be out, it could be another 20+ carry day for the junior RB who is coming off a career-best 202 yards against NIU. Western Michigan actually grades out well against the run this season for a team that quite literally replaced their entire roster in the offseason, ranking 67th nationally in EPA per run play defensively. That said, fantasy points have come in bunches for RBs facing the Broncos, with RB1s averaging 20.4 FPPG.
Injury Notes – Two CMU players will be suspended this week for their roles in the post-game altercation with NIU. Players have not been ID’d though a CMU message boarder seemed to indicate a tight end being involved. No confirmation on that whatsoever though. RB Myles Bailey ($5,600) did not play against NIU and remains questionable. Bailey is listed on the game week depth chart, but such was the case last week too.
Western Michigan:
Top Play(s) – RB Jalen Buckley ($7,500) The redshirt freshman has been one of the best fantasy backs in college football this season, scoring double-digit fantasy points in all but one game this season (Iowa) with GPP-winning upside as he’s scored 30 or more fantasy points three times. Western Michigan is 21st in plays per game nationally, playing at one of the quickest paces in the sport. Central Michigan allows 19.1 FPPG to opposing RB1s.
Fade – n/a. The core pieces for WMU are all reasonably priced. Everyone listed in the writeup is a potential option.
Bargain Bin – RB Zahir Abdus-Salaam ($4,600) Would be a ballsy strategy to roster multiple WMU backs in the same lineup but would be a differentiator in GPP lineups. Since WMU runs so many plays per game, Abdus-Salaam gets his fair share of opportunities, averaging double-digit touches per game. RB2s are averaging just over 8 FPPG against Central Michigan this season. And one injury (hopefully not) to Jalen Buckley would mean a heavy workload with little ownership for ZAS. I don’t hate it as a flex option instead of a WR.
Pivot Play – WR Kenneth Womack ($5,100) Buckley and Womack will be the two staples in my lineup for Tuesday, particularly on DK with regards to Womack. Quiet day for the senior receiver his last time out against Eastern Michigan with just five receptions but was still targeted eight times in a 24-point win. Now look at what Womack has done in losing performances in the month of October. 14-90-1 on 17 targets against Ohio – one of the best defenses in the MAC – and 12-108-0 on 15 targets on the road against Mississippi State. Preferred on DK with the full-point PPR scoring format.
Best of the Rest – RB Zahir Abdus-Salaam ($4,600) Would be a ballsy strategy to roster multiple WMU backs in the same lineup but would be a differentiator in GPP lineups. Since WMU runs so many plays per game, Abdus-Salaam gets his fair share of opportunities, averaging double-digit touches per game. RB2s are averaging just over 8 FPPG against Central Michigan this season. And one injury (hopefully not) to Jalen Buckley would mean a heavy workload with little ownership for ZAS. I don’t hate it as a flex option instead of a WR.
Speaking of the WMU receivers, it’s a bit confusing when looking at the situation outside of Womack. WR Anthony Sambucci ($4,900) is listed ahead of WR Leroy Thomas ($4,700) on the team’s depth chart, yet the latter is the second among wide receivers in targets (36) and receptions (23), playing the most snaps of any WMU wideout in Week 9 vs. Eastern Michigan. With Sambucci back in the lineup, it was WR Malique Dieudonne ($4,400) who saw the decline in playing time, seeing just 40 of 78 snaps against EMU. His pricing reflects that. I don’t mind stacking multiple WMU receivers together in the same lineup. QB Hayden Wolff ($6,900) possesses a strong arm, but very little mobility to his game. CMU allowed 20 FPPG to opposing quarterbacks, but those QBs are averaging 8 points above their seasonal average when facing the Chips.
Injury Notes – TE Austin Hence ($4,300) Hence is second on the team in targets (37) and touchdowns (2), but questionable for Tuesday with an undisclosed injury. Sits on the second line of the depth chart this week in an OR situation with TE Blake Bosma ($4,200) who caught four passes for 50 yards and a touchdown in his absence against Eastern Michigan.
Ohio vs. Buffalo
Point-Spread: Ohio -7
O/U Total: 45.5
Implied Score: Ohio 26 – Buff 19.5
Weather: 46 degrees / 23% rain / 10 mph winds
Ohio:
Top Play(s) – WR Sam Wiglusz ($5,900) Best receiver on the slate and I think WR is the position to go chalk with Wiglusz, Trayvon Rudolph and Kenny Womack. I will say this is a tough matchup for a disappointing Ohio passing game, as Buffalo allows just 11.5 FPPG to opposing WR1s this season. The three highest scoring receivers this season to face Buffalo all came in just one game vs. Liberty.
Fade – RB O’Shaan Alison ($5,200) Why the coaching staff insists on giving O’Shaan Alison carries is beyond me. Fewer than four yards per carry in seven of nine games played this season with just one performance of double-digit fantasy points.
Bargain Bin – WR Tyler Walton ($4,800) Everyone moved up a peg after Jacoby Jones was lost of the year. Walton stepped into the WR3 role, now with 14 targets in the last three games, and found the end-zone in Week 9. Second on the team in routes run in 2023. Because of the strength of the Buffalo secondary and Ohio being a touchdown favorite, I’d probably side with just one Ohio WR in a lineup.
Pivot Play – WR Miles Cross ($5,600) If you do fade Wiglusz, Cross is an easy pivot, coming off a season-high 12 targets in Week 9 vs. Miami (Ohio). Six or more receptions in three of the last four games and has solidified himself as the WR2 behind Wiglusz following the season-ending injury to Jacoby Jones.
Best of the Rest – RBs. I don’t know what’s gone wrong with the Ohio running game, returning a 1,000-yard rusher and four of five starting offensive linemen from last year. Bangura’s fall makes some sense because the Ohio staff decided they felt the need to split carries between he and backup O’Shaan Allison. Why Ohio, with so much returning experience, is 108th in rush success rate and 129th in EPA per rush play is baffling. For this reason, if there is a big name to fade in GPPs, it would be Bangura for me. Won’t sink your lineup, but 50-50 split with Allison has diminished his value. Buffalo is solid defensively vs. the run, allowing 16.9 FPPG to RB1s and 44th in rush D success rate. Similar to Bangura, there is no necessity to have QB Kurtis Rourke ($7,200) in your lineup, though he probably has the highest floor of any QB option on the slate. Just two quarterbacks have scored 20 fantasy points or more against Buffalo this season, and both did a lot of their work on the ground with Kaidon Salter and Zeon Chriss. Rourke is not as effective running the football in 2023 following the ACL injury last year.
Injury Notes – n/a
Buffalo:
Top Play(s) – RB Ron Cook Jr. ($5,900) I was quite surprised by this when I looked it up, but Cook is currently RB63 in college fantasy in points scored. Not that it’s league-winning production or anything, but quite impressive for a guy in a three-headed RBBC situation. 43% volume share in last week’s game vs. Toledo, even getting carries while Buffalo was trailing double-digits, and an excellent pass-catcher out of the backfield with 22 receptions on 27 targets in 2023.
Fade – QB Cole Snyder ($6,700) There are arguments to be made for each of the five quarterbacks above as a potential option for this slate. Can’t say the same about Snyder who is a non-runner that has failed to score more than 12 fantasy points in any of the last six games, facing arguably the MAC’s best defense in Ohio. The Bobcats are 34th in pass D success rate, allowing the sixth fewest fantasy points in college football to quarterbacks.
Bargain Bin – WR Darrell Harding Jr. ($4,000) Buffalo rotates four different receivers evenly, none of which are all that effective with all four having less than 65% catch rates. Harding, a former Duke transfer, is tied for second on the team with three receiving touchdowns, and really has been the most effective of the quartette.
Pivot Play – RB Jacqez Barksdale ($4,300) While Cook leads the team in carries, this is undoubtedly a coaching staff at Buffalo that will ride the hot hand in the backfield. Against Toledo, that was Cook. The week prior, it was Barksdale who had 84 yards on 10 carries against Kent State. Managing just nine attempts last week, Barksdale still managed to find the end-zone. That said, this is not a matchup that favors any part of the Buffalo offense as Ohio allows just 10.6 FPPG to RB1s and are 7th nationally in rush D success rate.
Best of the Rest – WRs. Your guess is as good as mine which wide receiver is the one to choose among Harding, Cole Harrity, Boobie Curry and Marlyn Johnson. When that is the case, typically the best answer is…none. Ohio allows the fifth fewest fantasy points in the country to receivers. Johnson leads the team in all receiving categories but has hit double-digit fantasy points just three times this season. Harrity leads the team with a 13% drop rate. Curry has zero drops, but a 44% catch rate is abysmal.
Injury Notes – n/a
Akron vs. Miami (Ohio)
Point-Spread: Mia (OH) -17.5
O/U Total: 40.5
Implied Score: Mia (OH) 28.5 – Akr 11.5
Weather: 64 degrees / 17% rain / 16 mph winds
Akron:
Top Play(s) – WR Daniel George ($5,500) Who’d have thought that George’s production would be better with a backup quarterback under center. The last three weeks have been what we thought we’d get the entire season from the former Penn State transfer with 38 combined targets.
Fade – QB Jeff Undercuffler Jr. ($6,200) Undercuffler played well last week against the worst team in the MAC, throwing for 298 yards and combining for three scores in the win. Miami (Ohio) is a LOT better than Kent State, particularly on defense where the RedHawks are allowing just 14.9 FPPG to opposing quarterbacks. I’d be surprised if Undercuffler scores double-digit fantasy points in this matchup.
Bargain Bin – WR Bobby Golden ($3,700) Golden seems to be the likeliest candidate to start should Alex Adams not be available, but the WR3 spot in the Akron passing game hasn’t been effective this season. And could split reps with Myles Walker or Adrian Norton. I’d stick with just George or Gathings if looking at Akron receivers.
Pivot Play – RB Lorenzo Lingard ($6,900) Season-high for Lingard last week with 22 rushing attempts as the former 5-star hit the century mark in rushing yards for the second time this season. Also notable that backup Drake Anderson had all of one rushing attempt. As for the matchup, not great, as Miami (Ohio) is allowing just 10.9 FPPG to RB1s this season and are 41st in EPA per run play defensively. While the volume was promising last week, Lingard might only see 10-12 carries on Wednesday with Akron likely trailing throughout the contest. Lingard is boosted by his versatility in the passing game with a 100% catch rate on 24 targets.
Best of the Rest – WR Jasiah Gathings ($5,200) Gathings is what we thought we’d get out of Alex Adams this season. Second on the team in routes run, targets (61) and receptions (36), notching a season-high 14 targets last week against Kent State. Pairing Gathings and George in the same lineup is a possibility as they account for 45% of the team’s target share.
Injury Notes – WR Alex Adams ($4,900) The former LSU transfer is questionable for Wednesday with an undisclosed injury. After being targeted 90 times last season with 9 touchdowns, Adams has completely fallen off the map in 2023 with just 188 receiving yards and hasn’t been worth it even when healthy.
Miami (OH):
Top Play(s) – RB Rashod Amos ($6,100) Teams have been racking up the fantasy points on the ground against the Zips this season with RB1s averaging 23.4 FPPG, and almost 13 points higher than their seasonal average when facing Akron. Miami (Ohio) has ALWAYS been a committee approach in the backfield under head coach Chuck Martin…until this season. Amos, a South Carolina transfer, has 43% of the team’s rushing attempts, coming off a season’s best 21-163-1 in the obliteration of Ohio in Week 9. Game script should play into his favor here as a double-digit favorite.
Fade – RB Kenny Tracy ($5,200) If you’re going to bet on a backup RB for Miami (Ohio), might as well be the one that is $1.7k cheaper in Keyon Mozee as the two essentially have the exact same stat-lines this season.
Bargain Bin – WR Joe Wilkins ($4,400) The Notre Dame transfer leads the team in routes run this season, partially because Gage Larvadain missed a few games due to injury, and is second in targets and receptions. Unlikely to roster any Miami (Ohio) receiver outside of Larvadain, though.
Pivot Play – WR Gage Larvadain ($5,600) All Miami (Ohio) receivers are downgraded with Aveon Smith under center, as evidenced by Larvadain’s 2-24-0 performance on just four targets last week against Ohio. And game script does Larvadain no favors here either. But the graduate transfer out of Southeastern Louisiana was looking like the next in line among top-tier fantasy receivers coming out of Miami (Ohio) early in the year with over 240 receiving yards on 24 targets in the first two games. Slate-breaking upside. RB Kevin Davis ($5,000) is the team’s Swiss army knife that has seen an uptick in the last few weeks with 116 of his 146 receiving yards coming in the last two games. Nine of Davis’ 15 rushing attempts have come in the last three weeks too.
Best of the Rest – QB Aveon Smith ($6,800) There are just three QB options for us on this slate and Smith can run. Smith is a below-average passer, facing an Akron secondary that the advanced metrics absolutely LOVE, ranking No. 2 in pass D success rate and 17th in EPA per pass play. 20-point projection, though, for Smith and will likely see double-digit carries on the ground is enough to deserve consideration.
Injury Notes – n/a
Bowling Green vs. Kent State
Point-Spread: BG -9.5
O/U Total: 40.5
Implied Score: BG 25 – KSU 15.5
Weather: 49 degrees / 40% rain / 13 mph winds
Bowling Green:
Top Play(s) – RB Ta’ron Keith ($6,000) I like Keith here as a GPP option regardless of if Stewart plays or not actually because of his receiving ability out of the backfield, ranking second on the team with 27 receptions on 38 targets. Carry distribution the last few games would also suggest Keith would be the next man up if Stewart were to sit due to injury (more on that later). Kent State is allowing 18.5 FPPG to opposing RB1s this season.
Fade – QBs Kent State stinks against the pass, ranking 102nd in pass D success rate and giving up the 24th most fantasy points to QBs in the country. So, if that persuades you to consider Connor Bazelak then have at it. He is the worst starting quarterback in the country and will give way to backup Camden Orth periodically.
Bargain Bin – RB Jaisun Patterson ($3,300) These are the situations only Bowling Green fans that follow the team daily know. Keith has more rushing attempts than Patterson over the last few weeks, but what makes this situation interesting if Stewart does sit is that Keith is truly just a 3rd-down pass-catching running back – not a workhorse at 190 pounds. Patterson does have those capabilities at 215 pounds and has shown that over the last few years. He’s also listed ahead of Keith on the depth chart. Patterson is only considerable if Stewart is out.
Pivot Play – TE Harold Fannin Jr. ($4,600) The sophomore tight end now has a receiving touchdown in consecutive games after leading the Falcons with five receptions on seven targets, running the third most routes on the team. Fannin had just one rushing attempt for negative yardage, but just know that’ll be an option every time Bowling Green enters the red zone on Wednesday, even moreso if Stewart is out.
Best of the Rest – WRs Kent State allows the 30th most fantasy points in the country to opposing WRs. We know the matchup is good – it’s a matter if Connor Bazelak can successfully get the BG receivers the football in space. No injury tag for Austin Osborne caught four passes on five targets against Ball State despite playing under 50% of the offensive snaps. Odieu Hilaire is a very similar case study to Gage Larvadain above in that the BG WR1 has slate-breaking ability that has been diminished by poor quarterback play. Leads the team in all receiving categories. Abdul-Fatai Ibrahim has run the most routes on the team in each of the last seven games, but just 16 receptions to show for it with a 47.1% catch rate. Four MAC wide receivers have scored 19 or more fantasy points against Kent State this season.
Injury Notes – RB Terion Stewart ($7,000) Officially questionable for Wednesday, but the 4th quarter injury Stewart suffered last week did not look promising as he was helped off by two assistants who had to carry him to the locker room.
Kent State:
Top Play(s) – QB Tommy Ulatowski ($6,600) Shame on me for mostly dismissing Touchdown Tommy last week as he combined for four touchdowns in the narrow loss to Akron. Advanced stats do like this Bowling Green secondary, ranked 29th in success rate and 24th in EPA per pass play defensively, but both rank lower than the Akron secondary Ulatowski faced last week. Five different quarterbacks have scored 19 or more fantasy points against Bowling Green this season. We also like that 10 of Ulatowski’s 11 rushing attempts last week were designed runs and not just scrambling out of the pocket.
Fade – RB Jaylen Thomas ($5,400) Volume only means so much in fantasy football. The former Colorado State transfer is dominating the backfield market share for the Flashes but has averaged over four yards a carry just twice this season. Thomas also does not catch passes with just four targets in seven games. Kent State ranks 130th in rush play success rate offensively.
Bargain Bin – WR Trell Harris ($3,700) Harris will regain his starting spot in the lineup following the Chrishon McCray injury, and has proven capable in the past, including his 94-yard performance against Central Connecticut State in Week 3. Harris was questionable entering last week’s contest but did wind up playing 16 of 60 offensive snaps.
Pivot Play – WR Luke Floriea ($4,700) Our highest-projected receiver this week, Floriea played 55 of 60 offensive snaps against Akron, finishing with four receptions and a touchdown on five targets. I would say it is not necessary to roster any Akron receivers this week as Bowling Green allows the 15th fewest fantasy points in the country to opposing WRs. The three highest scoring wideouts vs. BG this season all came from one game in the win over Georgia Tech.
Best of the Rest – WR Jameel Gardner Jr. ($3,900) Tied with Floriea last week against Akron in routes run, playing 51 of 60 offensive snaps. Gardner offers more size at 6-foot-1, and has been targeted 14 times in the last two games.
Injury Notes – WR Chrishon McCray ($6,700) Kent State’s best offensive player suffered a season-ending lower body injury.
Eastern Michigan vs. Toledo
Point-Spread: Tol -17.5
O/U Total: 47.5
Implied Score: Tol 32.5 – EMU 15
Weather: 51 degrees / 43% rain / 14 mph winds
Eastern Michigan:
Top Play(s) – WR Tanner Knue ($4,800) Team leader in every receiving category, now with 10 targets in two of the last three games. Game script plays in his favor. Toledo allows the 18th fewest fantasy points in the country to opposing wide receivers, but if you have a better choice for EMU’s top play here, I’m all ears.
Fade – QBs. Tenuous situation at quarterback currently for Eastern Michigan as they gave Division III transfer Ike Udengwu III at shot at starting last week and was eventually replaced by Austin Smith. Sounds like injury played a role in that change as Udengwu suffered an eye injury. Either way, this is not the matchup to start either quarterback as Toledo allows the ninth fewest fantasy points in the country to opposing quarterbacks.
Bargain Bin – WR JB Mitchell III ($4,200) Second on the team in targets (44) and receptions (23), and leads all EMU receivers in routes run in 2023. Best performance of the season against Western Michigan with 99 yards receiving on seven targets.
Pivot Play – WR Hamze El-Zayat ($4,000) Third on the team in targets (33), receptions (19), routes run and second with two receiving touchdowns.
Best of the Rest – RBs Interesting that Jaylon Jackson has a higher salary than Samson Evans this week despite the 8-1 advantage in rushing touchdowns for the latter. Likely something to do with Jackson catching nine passes on nine targets for 111 yards and a TD against Western Michigan in Week 9. At least two targets for Jackson in each of the last seven games. With that said, Evans has underperformed compared to preseason expectations, averaging just 47 rush yards per contest as he’s in a 60-40 backfield split with Jackson. Offensive line play is part of the blame as Eastern Michigan is 105th in EPA per rush play and 123rd in success rate. Toledo is middle of the road defending the run, allowing 16.2 FPPG to opposing RB1s.
Injury Notes – n/a
Toledo:
Top Play(s) – RB Peny Boone ($7,200) Best RB on the slate by a wide margin with Terion Stewart being questionable. Eastern Michigan does not rate well against the run, ranked 113th in rush D success rate, giving up 19.1 FPPG to opposing RB1s.
Fade – WR Junior Vandeross III ($5,000) Betting the under on Vandeross’ receiving player prop last week was very profitable as the slot receiver had just eight yards against Buffalo. Ran the third most routes on the team in that matchup, but really needs volume to pay off his salary, which he won’t get, averaging just 4.7 targets per game. The slot receiver has an aDOT of just 9.7 yards, lowest among the contributing wideouts.
Bargain Bin – TE Anthony Torres ($4,300) For as good as EMU has been against opposing wide receivers, the Eagles secondary has struggled vs. tight ends, allowing three different players to score 14 or more fantasy points against them. Half of Torres’ receptions this season have come in the last three games, while finding the end-zone in each of the last two weeks.
Pivot Play – Stack the Big 3. Toledo has scored 39 offensive touchdowns this season. 29 have come from De’Quan Finn, Peny Boone or Jerjuan Newton. Eastern Michigan does allow the seventh fewest fantasy points in the country to opposing wide receivers, but let’s rattle off the quarterbacks faced this season. Logan Smothers, Tommy Ulatowski, Athan Kaliakmanis, Jase Bauer, Carlos Davis, Hayden Wolff, Rocky Lombardi. That’s why receivers aren’t scoring against EMU, not because of the strength of the secondary. RB Jacquez Stuart ($6,000) also makes for a strong pivot play in GPPs stacked with Peny Boone. Found the end-zone twice last week – one rushing and one by way of returning the opening kickoff for a TD against Buffalo.
Best of the Rest – QB De’Quan Finn ($8,300) Won’t make the same mistake last week in saying Finn is a lock for your lineups, but still pretty damn close. I’m only considering the three dual-threats for this slate in Finn, Aveon Smith and Tommy Ulatowski for the QB and SuperFlex. To their credit, Eastern Michigan does grade out well vs. the pass, allowing just 14.8 FPPG to quarterbacks and 7th nationally in pass D success rate. That said, the best quarterback EMU has faced this season is Logan Smothers, and he can barely throw a forward pass.
Injury Notes – n/a
