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Oklahoma State vs. Texas
Point-Spread: Tex -13.5
O/U Total: 54.5
Implied Score: Tex 34 – Ok St 20.5
Weather: Dome
Oklahoma State:
Top Play(s) – RB Ollie Gordon ($9,000) Volume won’t be the issue here; it’s a matter of how effective Gordon will be against a stout Texas defensive front. The Longhorns rank 7th in rush D success rate, 10th in EPA per run play and allowed just 10.3 FPPG to opposing RB1s in 2023. While he would never admit it, Gordon largely became the nation’s leading rusher by his own doing because the Oklahoma State offensive line doesn’t grade out that well according to most metrics.
Fade – WR Jaden Bray ($3,600) Bray is being targeted when on the field, he’s just not on the field that much anymore. Three targets against BYU last week but came on just 16 offensive snaps and nine routes run. The top three receivers for Oklahoma State are firmly established.
Bargain Bin – TE Josiah Johnson ($3,200) Sixth on the team with 21 receptions on 29 targets, running the fifth most routes. Texas really struggled to defend the tight end position this season, allowing 7.3 FPPG to TE1s with four players hitting 11 fantasy points or more against the Longhorns.
Pivot Play – QB Alan Bowman ($6,100) Projections indicate we don’t even consider Bowman here at just 15.1 points. Game script should work in Bowman’s favor as a double-digit underdog, but this Texas defense is strong on the back end as well. The Longhorns are 14th in pass D success rate and give up only 16 FPPG to QB1s.
Best of the Rest – WRs. Those that have kept up with our DFS articles the entire year know the situation here with the Cowboys. 31 of the 44 targets last week went to the trio of Leon Johnson III, Rashod Owens and Brennan Presley who all played at least 80% of the team’s offensive snaps against BYU. That’s been the case for the last month and a half now. Texas is 119th in pass attempts allowed and give up close to 40 fantasy points per game to opposing WR groups. So while we may not have interest in Alan Bowman, the volume should be there for one of the Oklahoma State receivers to hit value.
Injury Notes – n/a
Texas:
Top Play(s) – RB CJ Baxter ($5,600) The prized freshman left last week’s contest with a hip pointer injury, but all indications point to Baxter being ready and available for Saturday. The Iowa State contest was the best indication of Baxter’s potential as the RB1 securing 20 carries in his first start, on the road, at night. We know the history of RB1s under Steve Sarkisian and that he’ll ride his workhorse. Oklahoma State has a pedestrian run defense, allowing just under 17 FPPG and 69th in EPA per run play defensively.
Fade – RB Jaydon Blue ($6,000) Impressive performance last week from the former 4-star recruit filling in for the injury Baxter, rushing for 121 yards on just 10 carries against Texas Tech. Does he hit that mark, though, if Baxter was healthy? The only way in which Blue reaches value here is (a) Baxter is surprisingly out or still less than 100%, or (b) this is a blowout. Gundy has won 9 of the last 13 games against Texas, with the last few B12 title games all decided by single digits…so a blowout seems unlikely.
Bargain Bin – TE Ja’Tavion Sanders ($3,700) Few Big 12 teams utilize the tight end position, but the ones that do dominated this Oklahoma State defense this season. Kansas’ Mason Fairchild and Kansas State’s Ben Sinnott combined for 40 fantasy points against the Cowboys.
Pivot Play – QB Quinn Ewers ($8,500) Nightmare performance from Ewers in his last showing against Oklahoma State last year, completing 19-of-49 passes with three interceptions. Safe to say Ewers will be plenty motivated for this matchup. This is definitely a byproduct of playing in the B12, but of the teams playing on Saturday, Oklahoma State is allowing the most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks (22.6).
Best of the Rest – WRs. Similar to Baxter, Xavier Worthy left last week’s contest, but appears he’s 100% for Saturday. Oklahoma State is allowing 20.4 FPPG to opposing WR1s this season, and all reports indicate this will be Worthy’s final game in a Texas uniform with the wideout likely declaring for the NFL Draft. Same goes for Adonai Mitchell. Would only roster one in a lineup and not stack the two together. The potential x-factor here is Jordan Whittington – someone we’ve faded all year. But the middle of the field is open for opposing wideouts facing the Cowboys, as four of the top five highest scoring receivers to face Oklahoma State play in the slot.
Injury Notes – n/a
Boise State vs. UNLV
Point-Spread: BSU -2.5
O/U Total: 58.5
Implied Score: BSU 30.5 – UNLV 28
Weather: Dome
Boise State:
Top Play(s) – RB Ashton Jeanty ($8,000) My prediction is this will be Jeanty’s last game in a Boise State uniform as there are some unverified reports out there that the sophomore running back will hit the transfer portal after the season concludes. No surprise given Jeanty is probably one of the 5-10 best running backs in all of college football. UNLV allows 16 FPPG to RB1s and are 85th in rush D success rate.
Fade – WR Billy Bowens ($3,400) Ranks first on the team in routes run and targets (44) among players that are still on the current roster but has not had a single receiving yards in any of the last two games. Fewer than 25 receiving yards in over half the games played this season.
Bargain Bin – WR Prince Strachan ($3,400) If Boise State has a future building block at the WR position, it is the 6-foot-5 true freshman who’s shown glimpses already with 128 yards receiving in a Week 11 matchup with New Mexico. A 16.6 yards aDOT for Strachan who is slotted into Eric McAlister’s old role as the team’s top deep threat. WR Austin Bolt ($3,300) also entered the starting lineup as he returned from injury, running the third most routes among receivers against Air Force.
Pivot Play – QB Taylen Green ($6,700) Against a better defense than UNLV, Green was solid in his first game back as the full-time starter, completing 77% of his throws for 228 yards with two total touchdowns. Two interceptions didn’t help his cause, but Boise State doesn’t have another QB to turn to like they did earlier in the year. UNLV allows the second-most fantasy points to quarterbacks among teams playing this weekend and are 119th in EPA per pass play defensively.
Best of the Rest – RB George Holani ($6,300) Volume didn’t change, but just apparent to anyone with eyes the noticeable difference in talent between Holani and Ashton Jeanty. 52 yards and a touchdown on 16 rushing attempts vs. AF. Stacking Jeanty and Holani together in a lineup is a potential longshot GPP option because of how much Boise State will run the football.
Injury Notes – n/a
UNLV:
Top Play(s) – WR Ricky White ($6,700) Tough to say there is a stone-cold lock for an 8-game slate, but White is the closest thing to a lock as the clear-cut top wide receiver by a country mile. 35% of the team target share, 50% of UNLV’s receiving touchdowns and six 100-yard receiving performances in the last seven games. I simply don’t think there’s a way of getting around “not” having White in your lineup. Boise State’s secondary is nowhere near as good as it was a year ago, ranking 78th in EPA per pass play, and allowing 18 FPPG to opposing WR1s.
Fade – RB Courtney Reese ($3,600) We’ll cover off on the running backs below, but Reese is the odd-man out in a deep rotation as his carries have diminished as the season has gone along.
Bargain Bin – TE Kaleo Ballungay ($3,000) Two touchdowns in the last three games for Ballungay who ran the third most routes of any UNLV pass-catcher last week in the loss to UNLV. Of the teams playing this weekend, Boise State is allowing the most fantasy points to opposing tight ends (7.9). WR Corey Thompson Jr. ($3,000), a true freshman, caught three passes for 50 yards and a score last week in his most extended action of the season, running the second most routes behind Ricky White. Still listed as a second-stringer on the official depth chart, but maybe UNLV is looking for another playmaker late in the year at wideout.
Pivot Play – RBs. We correctly predicted this coming into the season with regards to offensive coordinator Brennan Marion and the go-go offensive system that there will not be a volume eater at running back. That held true with three running backs having anywhere between 93 and 117 rushing attempts this season. If you subscribe to the Vegas prop bet predictions, Vincent Davis has the highest number on the prop market of the three running backs, coming off 88 yards rushing against San Jose State. The former Pitt transfer also holds a slight 25-20 edge over Jai’Den Thomas in red-zone opportunities, despite the 12-15 advantage for the latter in rushing touchdowns. All three are viable, but also shouldn’t fret about fading the entire group given it’s a true RBBC. Boise State is 72nd defensively in EPA per rush play, allowing 17 FPPG to opposing RB1s.
Best of the Rest – QB Jayden Maiava ($6,800) The Rebels have a building block in the freshman quarterback who completed 64% of his passes for 2,600 yards and 14 touchdowns. Boise State is a middle of the road pass defense, allowing 19 FPPG to quarterbacks, with five different QBs scoring 20 or more fantasy points against the Broncos. There’s a shot this game shoots out, so I like Maiava as a potential QB option. That said, this is also a run-based offensive scheme, ranking 23rd nationally in rush play percentage. WR Jacob De Jesus ($3,200) is second on the team in receptions (46) and targets (62) – extremely cheap for a player of his level of production. Preferred on DK as De Jesus is averaging just 9.8 YPC with only two touchdowns.
Injury Notes – n/a
Georgia vs. Alabama
Point-Spread: UGA -6.5
O/U Total: 54.5
Implied Score: UGA 30.5 – Ala 24
Weather: Dome
Georgia:
Top Play(s) –
theCFFsite’s Heisman Members can view the full article here, and Heisman/All-American Members can access the Championship Weekend Player Projections here.
Become an All-American or Heisman Member and get access to our exclusive members-only content and an invite into theCFFsite Discord.