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Jacksonville State vs. Louisiana
Point-Spread: Jax St -3.5
O/U Total: 59.5
Implied Score: Jax St 31.5 – UL 28
Weather: Dome
Jacksonville State:
Top Play(s) – QB Zion Webb ($7,000) Relatively cheap running quarterback facing a defense that isn’t particularly dominant in any one facet. Louisiana allowed 18.1 FPPG to opposing quarterbacks this season, with six different QBs scoring 20 or more fantasy points against UL. The Ragin Cajuns did finish in the top half of most defensive categories, limiting three of their last four opponents to under 200 yards passing. We’re mostly interested in Webb’s running abilities though, averaging over 16 rushing attempts over his last five starts.
Fade – WR Michael Pettway ($3,900) We’ll have minimal interest as it is in the JSU receivers on a team that is 128th in pass play percentage. This is a run-based offense under HC Rich Rodriguez. So, if we’re considering a JSU receiver, it’d better be a starter, which Pettway is not. A backup on the team’s bowl guide depth chart, having played fewer than 10 offensive snaps in four of his last five games.
Bargain Bin – WR PJ Wells ($3,200) A listed starter on the depth chart, the 6-foot-3 redshirt junior has been targeted at least six times in three of the last five games. Played 58 of 64 offensive snaps in his last outing vs. New Mexico State in Week 13. The catch rate is the issue with rostering Wells, converting on just 35% of his targets, but he’s cheap and on the field a bunch.
Pivot Play – WR Perry Carter ($5,400) Expensive receivers on teams that don’t throw the ball much won’t garner much ownership, and Carter has been really good over the last three games played with multiple 100-yard receiving performances and over 1/3 of his season-long targets coming in that stretch.
Best of the Rest – RBs. The weakness of the UL defense is in the front seven, ranking 9th in the Sun Belt in YPG allowed on the ground and given up over four yards per carry to four of the last five conference opponents. Louisiana gives up the 16th most fantasy points to running backs among teams playing this bowl season with seven different RBs scoring at least 17 fantasy points against UL in 2023. The problem is we have a 55-45 split between Anwar Lewis and Malik Jackson. The backfield split would not deter me from rostering either Lewis or Jackson in a lineup, and having both in the same lineup would be a differentiator in GPPs. Not sure I’d go that route, though, with Webb also garnering heavy volume in the run game. WR Quinton Lane ($4,600) will see the lowest ownership of the UL receivers despite leading all wideouts on the team in routes run.
Injury / Opt-Out Notes – n/a
Louisiana:
Top Play(s) – QB Chandler Fields ($7,500) Don’t feel obligated to choose any UL player for your DFS lineups. We have a non-running QB in Fields. Three-man committee in the Ragin Cajuns backfield…with the possibility of four if Dre’lyn Washington winds up playing. And the team’s leading receiver accounts for just 14% of the target share. We’ll side with the player we know is touching the football every snap in Fields as the team’s top play in what is projected to be a higher-scoring affair and a positive game script as a field goal underdog. JSU allowed just two quarterbacks this season to score more than 20 fantasy points against them, which speaks again to why you should not feel the need to have any UL player in your lineup.
Fade – RB Zylan Perry ($4,300) The coaching staff likes this redshirt freshman RB, but this is too pricey for what may be the 3rd or 4th RB option on the pecking order. Perry is downgraded if Washington is active, and potentially has been overtaken true freshman RB Elijah Davis ($3,000) who rumbled for 109 yards and two scores in the finale vs. Louisiana-Monroe. I’d call that a potential one-off, but the 227-pounder ran for 42 yards and a TD in the Week 3 matchup with UAB. Davis has only played in three games this season, so would maintain his redshirt even if he suits up on Saturday.
Bargain Bin – See above on Davis.
Pivot Play – RB Jacob Kibodi ($5,000) I’d expect most DFS players to look at Davis as the most intriguing option in the UL backfield given recent results and pricing. Kibodi still lead the team with seven rushing touchdowns, leading the Cajuns with 15 carries in the blowout Week 13 win over ULM. We look at the JSU run defense and see that they allowed just 12.4 FPPG to opposing RB1s this season, but there aren’t many dominant rush offenses in CUSA. Two of the better RBs faced this season – Liberty’s Quinton Cooley and Sam Houston State’s John Gentry – combined for 56 total fantasy points in their respective matchups with JSU.
Best of the Rest – WRs. Crapshoot as we indicated above with the dispersed target share. Peter LeBlanc, Harvey Broussard, and Jacob Bernard are the listed starters on the depth chart, so would favor one of those three if choosing someone. Robert Williams is tied with LeBlanc for the team lead with 44 targets but has seemingly lost his starting job in favor of the freshman Broussard. TE Neal Johnson ($3,500) is the team leader in routes run and touchdowns (5), three of which have come in the last two games alone. Three catches in each of the last four games.
Injury / Opt-Out Notes – RB Dre’lyn Washington ($3,000) Writing this up on Tuesday, I’m unsure as to the status of Washington who did not play in Week 13, but not finding anything on the Twitterverse or world wide web that Washington is actually “out” as DK states currently. Will need to monitor pregame as his availability alters the RB projections.
Miami (Ohio) vs. Appalachian State
Point-Spread: App St -6.5
O/U Total: 44.5
Implied Score: App St 25.5 – Mia (OH) 19
Weather: 68 degrees / 54% rain / 20 mph winds
Miami (OH):
Top Play(s) –
theCFFsite’s Heisman Members can view the full article here, and Heisman/All-American Members can access the Bowl Season Player Projections here.
Become an All-American or Heisman Member and get access to our exclusive members-only content and an invite into theCFFsite Discord.