Jacksonville State vs. Louisiana
Point-Spread: Jax St -3.5
O/U Total: 59.5
Implied Score: Jax St 31.5 – UL 28
Weather: Dome
Jacksonville State:
Top Play(s) – QB Zion Webb ($7,000) Relatively cheap running quarterback facing a defense that isn’t particularly dominant in any one facet. Louisiana allowed 18.1 FPPG to opposing quarterbacks this season, with six different QBs scoring 20 or more fantasy points against UL. The Ragin Cajuns did finish in the top half of most defensive categories, limiting three of their last four opponents to under 200 yards passing. We’re mostly interested in Webb’s running abilities though, averaging over 16 rushing attempts over his last five starts.
Fade – WR Michael Pettway ($3,900) We’ll have minimal interest as it is in the JSU receivers on a team that is 128th in pass play percentage. This is a run-based offense under HC Rich Rodriguez. So, if we’re considering a JSU receiver, it’d better be a starter, which Pettway is not. A backup on the team’s bowl guide depth chart, having played fewer than 10 offensive snaps in four of his last five games.
Bargain Bin – WR PJ Wells ($3,200) A listed starter on the depth chart, the 6-foot-3 redshirt junior has been targeted at least six times in three of the last five games. Played 58 of 64 offensive snaps in his last outing vs. New Mexico State in Week 13. The catch rate is the issue with rostering Wells, converting on just 35% of his targets, but he’s cheap and on the field a bunch.
Pivot Play – WR Perry Carter ($5,400) Expensive receivers on teams that don’t throw the ball much won’t garner much ownership, and Carter has been really good over the last three games played with multiple 100-yard receiving performances and over 1/3 of his season-long targets coming in that stretch.
Best of the Rest – RBs. The weakness of the UL defense is in the front seven, ranking 9th in the Sun Belt in YPG allowed on the ground and given up over four yards per carry to four of the last five conference opponents. Louisiana gives up the 16th most fantasy points to running backs among teams playing this bowl season with seven different RBs scoring at least 17 fantasy points against UL in 2023. The problem is we have a 55-45 split between Anwar Lewis and Malik Jackson. The backfield split would not deter me from rostering either Lewis or Jackson in a lineup, and having both in the same lineup would be a differentiator in GPPs. Not sure I’d go that route, though, with Webb also garnering heavy volume in the run game. WR Quinton Lane ($4,600) will see the lowest ownership of the UL receivers despite leading all wideouts on the team in routes run.
Injury / Opt-Out Notes – n/a
Louisiana:
Top Play(s) – QB Chandler Fields ($7,500) Don’t feel obligated to choose any UL player for your DFS lineups. We have a non-running QB in Fields. Three-man committee in the Ragin Cajuns backfield…with the possibility of four if Dre’lyn Washington winds up playing. And the team’s leading receiver accounts for just 14% of the target share. We’ll side with the player we know is touching the football every snap in Fields as the team’s top play in what is projected to be a higher-scoring affair and a positive game script as a field goal underdog. JSU allowed just two quarterbacks this season to score more than 20 fantasy points against them, which speaks again to why you should not feel the need to have any UL player in your lineup.
Fade – RB Zylan Perry ($4,300) The coaching staff likes this redshirt freshman RB, but this is too pricey for what may be the 3rd or 4th RB option on the pecking order. Perry is downgraded if Washington is active, and potentially has been overtaken true freshman RB Elijah Davis ($3,000) who rumbled for 109 yards and two scores in the finale vs. Louisiana-Monroe. I’d call that a potential one-off, but the 227-pounder ran for 42 yards and a TD in the Week 3 matchup with UAB. Davis has only played in three games this season, so would maintain his redshirt even if he suits up on Saturday.
Bargain Bin – See above on Davis.
Pivot Play – RB Jacob Kibodi ($5,000) I’d expect most DFS players to look at Davis as the most intriguing option in the UL backfield given recent results and pricing. Kibodi still lead the team with seven rushing touchdowns, leading the Cajuns with 15 carries in the blowout Week 13 win over ULM. We look at the JSU run defense and see that they allowed just 12.4 FPPG to opposing RB1s this season, but there aren’t many dominant rush offenses in CUSA. Two of the better RBs faced this season – Liberty’s Quinton Cooley and Sam Houston State’s John Gentry – combined for 56 total fantasy points in their respective matchups with JSU.
Best of the Rest – WRs. Crapshoot as we indicated above with the dispersed target share. Peter LeBlanc, Harvey Broussard, and Jacob Bernard are the listed starters on the depth chart, so would favor one of those three if choosing someone. Robert Williams is tied with LeBlanc for the team lead with 44 targets but has seemingly lost his starting job in favor of the freshman Broussard. TE Neal Johnson ($3,500) is the team leader in routes run and touchdowns (5), three of which have come in the last two games alone. Three catches in each of the last four games.
Injury / Opt-Out Notes – RB Dre’lyn Washington ($3,000) Writing this up on Tuesday, I’m unsure as to the status of Washington who did not play in Week 13, but not finding anything on the Twitterverse or world wide web that Washington is actually “out” as DK states currently. Will need to monitor pregame as his availability alters the RB projections.
Miami (Ohio) vs. Appalachian State
Point-Spread: App St -6.5
O/U Total: 44.5
Implied Score: App St 25.5 – Mia (OH) 19
Weather: 68 degrees / 54% rain / 20 mph winds
Miami (OH):
Top Play(s) – RB Rashod Amos ($6,500) As straightforward as it gets. Miami (Ohio)’s best player on offense. The RedHawks are down to their third string QB. Bad weather expected. And a great matchup against a terrible run defense as App State is allowing the second-most fantasy points to RB1s (24.1) of team’s playing in bowl games.
Fade – QBs. Another easy selection here. Henry Hesson gets the starting nod and is not the runner that Aveon Smith is. Factor in the weather with 20 MPH winds and potentially heavy rain. Lastly, former Colorado and Houston transfer Maddox Kopp is eligible to play on Saturday, and while Hesson is still expected to be the starter, there’s a better than zero chance we see multiple QBs.
Bargain Bin – WR Miles Marshall ($3,400) The Tobias Merriweather of the MAC. Last year’s second leading receiver has been a non-factor in 2023 with just nine receptions on 25 targets, failing to record a catch in seven of the last eight games. That speaks to our interest right there here. But he’s cheap and plays 80% of the offensive snaps each week. Former Notre Dame transfer Joe Wilkins doesn’t appear to be on the roster anymore, so that opens up some more playing time for Marshall on the outside.
Pivot Play – WR Gage Larvadain ($4,900) 22% target share and 38% of the team’s receiving touchdowns for Larvadain. While we are dismissing the QBs as DFS options, we also acknowledge that both Hesson and Kopp can throw a forward pass. Something Aveon Smith is unable to accomplish. And we know that Larvadain has slate-breaking upside as evidenced by his early season performances. But therein lies the problem – Larvadain’s success came with Brett Gabbert at quarterback. He’s been irrelevant outside of that. Eight different receivers this season scored 17 or more fantasy points against App State.
Best of the Rest – WR Javon Tracy ($4,200) The redshirt freshman was shut out against Toledo in the MAC Championship game but was a player trending upwards with 193 receiving yards on 14 targets in Week’s 12 and 13. WR Cade McDonald ($4,000) has been targeted 12 times in the last two games, ranking second in routes run behind Larvadain.
Injury / Opt-Out Notes – QB Aveon Smith (transfer), WR Joe Wilkins (unknown – not on depth chart)
Appalachian State:
Top Play(s) – RB Kayne Roberts ($5,200) No apparent deficiency with the Miami (Ohio) defense, but also no superior strength to where we need to avoid a particular position group. With the impending weather and Nate Noel being in the portal, we’ll side with Roberts being the top DFS option for the Mountaineers. Team-high seven rushing touchdowns for the 200-pound redshirt freshman who is averaging just under six yards a carry for the season. The RedHawks allow just 10.9 FPPG to opposing RB1s this season and are 56th in rush D success rate so this isn’t a gimme matchup either.
Fade – RB Maquel Haywood ($4,400) Everyone moves up a peg on the depth chart with Noel out, but I don’t like the uncertainty here with Haywood who did not play a single snap in the conference championship game vs. Troy, and fewer than 10 offensive snaps in five of the last seven games. If investing in a backup RB for App State, I’d look to RB2 Anderson Castle ($3,300) who is higher on the depth chart, and cheaper.
Bargain Bin – WR Milan Tucker ($3,100) Wanted to highlight Tucker here as he’s in the transfer portal currently, but reports are suggesting that he’s still with the team at practices this week and is listed as the starting slot receiver on the depth chart. We’ll assume that means Tucker is playing, but why not get a look at a younger player in a meaningless game who actually wants to be part of the program moving forward? WR Michael Hetzel ($3,200) is also listed in bold next to Tucker on the depth chart and not in the portal.
Pivot Play – QB Joey Aguilar ($8,400) Poor outing against Troy in the Sun Belt title game for Aguilar who turned the ball over twice and failed to find the end-zone with just five fantasy points scored. Miami (Ohio) is a very good MAC defense, but we can all agree the Sun Belt is a few notches above in terms of talent. Aguilar finished the CFF regular season as QB10 in fantasy points scored, so we know he’s capable. The RedHawks allowed just 14.6 FPPG to opposing QB1s this season.
Best of the Rest – WR Kaedin Robinson ($5,600) Team leader in all receiving categories, coming off a strong close to the 2023 season with six receiving TDs in the last five games, and 10 targets in each of his last two games. Miami (Ohio) allowed just 13.9 FPPG to opposing WR1s this season, so wouldn’t necessarily prioritize Robinson or any App State receiver. WR Christan Horn ($5,400) is second among active App State receivers in routes run and can be a deep threat, averaging over 16 YPC. Unsure why though there is only a $200 difference between Horn and Robinson, when the latter has been exponentially better. The only tight end to score more than six fantasy points against Miami (Ohio) this season was Toledo’s Anthony Torres who scored 13 fantasy points twice against the RedHawks. TE Eli Wilson ($3,800) is second on the team in routes run and third in receiving touchdowns (5) and has been targeted 16 times in the last three games. I’d probably have just one App State pass-catching option in my lineups given the weather and low game total.
Injury / Opt-Out Notes – RB Nate Noel (transfer), WR Dashaun Davis (transfer), WR Coen Sutton (transfer)
New Mexico State vs. Fresno State
Point-Spread: NMSU -3.5
O/U Total: 51.5
Implied Score: NMSU 27.5 – Fres St 24
Weather: 47 degrees / 0% rain / 4 mph winds
New Mexico State:
Top Play(s) – QB Diego Pavia ($8,600) Pavia suffered an injury in the loss to Liberty in the conference championship game, but indicated to the media that he would play on Saturday. And we know how good a healthy Pavia can be from a fantasy perspective. As for the matchup, Fresno State is not overwhelming in any one facet defensively, ranking 83rd in EPA per pass play and 63rd in EPA per run play. The Bulldogs allowed just 17.9 FPPG to quarterbacks during the regular season, but those same QBs averaged 4.8 fantasy points above their seasonal average when facing Fresno State.
Fade – RB Jamoni Jones ($4,700) and WR Kordell David ($4,500) We faded these two all regular season, so why stop now? Jones has scored double-digit fantasy points just once all season in a three-headed backfield with very little volume. Touchdown-dependent running back that rarely scores touchdowns. David leads all Aggie receivers in routes run, but a 42% catch rate with four drops and a 9.4 YPC average.
Bargain Bin – WR Donovan Faupel ($3,000) Faupel is listed as a backup on the current depth chart behind WR Chris Bellamy ($4,800) but played almost triple the number of offensive snaps that Bellamy did in the CUSA title game vs. Liberty. The 6-foot-2 true freshman has already burned his redshirt, so we don’t need to worry about that, and closed the year strong with five of his eight season-long receptions coming in the last two games. Both will have an opportunity to fill in for former starter Trent Hudson who hit the transfer portal and looks to be headed to Kansas State.
Pivot Play – WR Jonathan Brady ($5,100) Brady now becomes the certified WR1 for the Aggies with Hudson in the portal after finishing the season first in targets (58) and catches (37), and second in touchdowns (4) and routes run. Fresno State allowed over 19 FPPG to opposing WR1s this season with three different wideouts hitting 30+ fantasy points.
Best of the Rest – RB Star Thomas ($5,100) or RB Monte Watkins ($4,600) We know the drill by now at running back. Thomas, Jones, and Watkins will see between 4-9 rushing attempts, and will come down to who can break a long run or find the end-zone that becomes the relevant option. Fresno State allowed just 15.9 FPPG to opposing RB1s this season. There is no need to roster any NMSU running back despite being the favored team. WR Bryce Childress ($4,000) saw a season-high in routes run and targets (4) vs. Liberty but is probably the fourth or fifth option at wideout.
Injury / Opt-Out Notes – WR Trent Hudson (portal)
Fresno State:
Top Play(s) – RB Malik Sherrod ($6,800) No depth chart (as of Wednesday writing this) and no practice reports from the Fresno State beat writer, which is disappointing, because he typically provides detailed coverage with injury-related news. So, we’ll proceed as though the offense is intact and ready to roll for Saturday. Sherrod has been the team’s best fantasy option since Week 5 after taking the starting job away from Elijah Gilliam, with four 100-yard rushing performances in the last eight games. New Mexico State only allowed 14.0 FPPG to RB1s this season but rank 108th in rush D success rate and 103rd in rush play EPA. Fresno should be able to run the football on the Aggies.
Fade – RB Elijah Gilliam ($4,100) After three weeks, the thought was that Gilliam would be the next top fantasy running back to come out of Fresno State with 249 rushing yards, averaging 19 attempts per. Once Sherrod was back to 100%, Gilliam fell off the radar with just 34 carries combined in the next nine games.
Bargain Bin – TE Tre Watson ($4,000) Cheapest reasonable option from a Fresno State pass-catcher standpoint. Watson is 5th on the team in targets (49) but second in both touchdowns (4) and routes run. New Mexico State allowed just 5.2 FPPG to tight ends, but the two highest scoring performances from right ends against the Aggies have come in two of the last three games.
Pivot Play – QB Mikey Keene ($8,200) Tight spread and decent weather means Keene should be in play this week, but his recent performances to close the year do not inspire much confidence. Due in part to not being fully healthy as Logan Fife split time with Keene, but the former UCF transfer failed to score more than 14 fantasy points in each of his last four games played. The Aggies are 86th in pass D success rate and allowed close to 22 FPPG so there’s a shot at Keene hitting value.
Best of the Rest – WRs. We have four wide receivers sitting between 44-55 receptions, and three of that group have five receiving touchdowns a piece. There is not much separation between the top four of Erik Brooks, Jalen Moss, Mac Dalena and Jaelen Gill…with no depth chart or practice reports to suggest if anything has changed since the conclusion of the regular season. Gill plays about 50% less snaps than the top three so he is the low end of the totem pole of options. Given the recent struggles of Keene, how spread out the target share is amongst the top four, and the inflated prices of all involved, there isn’t a need to roster any Fresno State WR here. Five receivers scored 20 or more fantasy points against NMSU this season – four of which played in the slot – so maybe a slight, slight lean towards Brooks if that is an indicator.
Injury / Opt-Out Notes – n/a
UCLA vs. Boise State
Point-Spread: UCLA -4.5
O/U Total: 48.5
Implied Score: UCLA 26.5 – BSU 22
Weather: Dome
UCLA:
Top Play(s) – RB TJ Harden ($5,500) As of Wednesday writing this, Carson Steele has not practiced this week, and appears doubtful for Saturday. Not officially out and will be determined on gameday, but the UCLA beat writer has already indicated that he doesn’t expect the former Ball State transfer to play. With Steele likely unavailable and third-stringer Keegan Jones in the portal, conventional wisdom would suggest that second-leading rusher TJ Harden will garner the majority of carries against Boise State. The Broncos are an above average MWC run defense, ranking 33rd in rush D success rate, but did allow 16.9 FPPG to opposing RB1s. Regardless of the defense, volume is king and 20+ carries are a near lock for Harden.
Fade – QB Ethan Garbers ($7,400) Not an outright fade, but I personally won’t have much exposure here. Garbers is expected to start Saturday, but a slight shadow of doubt with HC Chip Kelly stating, “we’ll see where he is at the end of the week.” Just have a difficult time banking on a player that scored 19 and 21 fantasy points, respectively, against two of the worst defenses in the country in USC and Colorado. Boise State’s secondary is largely intact for Saturday after allowing just 17 FPPG to QB1s in 2023.
Bargain Bin – WR Ryan Cragun ($3,000) Not that Cragun is some integral part of UCLA’s future plans, but he’s a reason we’re seeing Kam Brown in the transfer portal currently. Minimal production in the last four games with just seven receptions on 12 targets, but Cragun has been in the starting lineup in each of those four weeks, running the third most routes of any UCLA receiver.
Pivot Play – WR J. Michael Sturdivant ($4,500) One of the bigger busts on College Fantasy this season, can we hold out some glimmer of hope for one good performance to close out the year? The former Cal transfer still ran the most routes of any UCLA wideout this season, though a 51% conversion rate on just 5.2 targets per game is nowhere close to his preseason expectations. Seven different receivers scored 21 or more fantasy points against Boise State this season.
Best of the Rest – WR Logan Loya ($5,500) Team leader in all receiving categories, due in large part to Loya’s final two game stretch where he posted 18 receptions on 32 targets combined in that span. UCLA likely won’t throw the football enough as a slight favorite to roster two Bruin receivers so would stick to just one in a lineup. Former USC transfer WR Kyle Ford ($3,500) played over 50% of the team’s offensive snaps in each of the last two games, which could be a trend that continues with UCLA’s top tight end in the portal.
Injury / Opt-Out Notes – QB Dante Moore (transfer), RB Keegan Jones (transfer), TE Carsen Ryan (transfer), RB Kam Brown (transfer), RB Carson Steele (injury)
Boise State:
Top Play(s) – RB Ashton Jeanty ($8,500) Jeanty has been doing Jeanty things in the three games coming back from injury, averaging over seven yards a carry with three rushing touchdowns in each of the last three weeks. Noticeable increase in touches as well since returning from injury, including 20 attempts in the MWC title game vs. UNLV. The trouble is that UCLA allowed the third fewest fantasy points to running backs among teams playing this bowl season. The good news is that we know Jeanty can punish a defense multiple ways, as he finished second on the team in receptions (40) on 43 targets despite only playing in nine games.
Fade – QB(s) True freshman CJ Tiller is expected to make the start on Saturday after playing just two snaps this season. Looking at his high school numbers, he either is not a runner or was not asked to run with just 303 yards in three seasons. Recruiting profile does show both California and Washington State offered Tiller, along with several other MWC schools, so there is some pedigree here. Sounds as though Tiller was in a neck-and-neck battle with previous backup Maddux Madsen for the QB2 job in the offseason, and we know Maddux split time with starter Taylen Green during the regular season. All of that to say…fade. UCLA’s defense will be without two starters for this matchup, but the Bruins allowed just 13.3 FPPG to QB1s this year.
Bargain Bin – WR Austin Bolt ($3,000) Bolt was a hot commodity in CFF in 2022 as a projected starting receiver with tight end eligibility. Injury has derailed his career a bit, but signs of promise lately with 10 of his 14 targets coming in the last three games, including 72 yards and a score vs. UNLV.
Pivot Play – RB George Holani ($6,300) Volume is not an issue for Holani, even with Jeanty back in the lineup, as Boise State is 16th nationally in rush play percentage. I just don’t believe Holani is talented enough to succeed against a defensive unit at the level of UCLA as we mentioned above, and Holani isn’t utilized in the passing game like Jeanty. If playing Holani, you’re fading Jeanty as this is not a matchup to stack both together.
Best of the Rest – WR Billy Bowens ($3,300) Team leader in routes run in 2023 and was the primary target two Saturdays ago with 4-91-0 on four targets. To reiterate, not a high-volume passing game so max one Boise State WR in a lineup…if that. WR Prince Strachan ($3,200) ran wind springs against UNLV with just one target on 70% of the offensive snaps. Boise State is not rotating at WR any longer so Bolt, Bowens and Strachan are your only options.
Injury / Opt-Out Notes – QB Taylen Green (transfer)
California vs. Texas Tech
Point-Spread: TT -2.5
O/U Total: 57.5
Implied Score: TT 30 – Cal 27.5
Weather: 51 degrees / 30% rain / 10 mph winds
California:
Top Play(s) – RB Jaydn Ott ($8,400) Both RBs in this matchup are the top plays on the slate. The lone concern here for me is the change at offensive coordinator as Jake Spavital left to take the same position at Baylor this month – although some would view that as an upgrade. We knew Ott was immensely talented, but questioned how his volume would look under Spavital considering he’s typically utilized an RBBC in the past. Not the case in 2023, particularly late with Ott getting 20+ attempts in each of the last five games. As for the matchup, Tech is very mediocre against the run, allowing 17 FPPG to RB1s and 96th in EPA per run play defensively.
Fade – RB2. Due in part to what was stated above with Ott dominating the backfield market share the last month and a half. I also don’t like uncertainty in bowl season, and there is some uncertainty as to who will back up Ott on Saturday. Isaiah Ifanse is day-to-day according to HC Justin Wilcox and likely to be a game-time decision. Former Tennessee transfer Justin Williams-Thomas would be the backup should Ifanse sit. We’re unlikely to hear the official status of a backup RB leading up to kickoff.
Bargain Bin – TE Jack Endries ($4,000) Endries becomes the third pass-catching option in the offense with Taj Davis no longer with the program. The sophomore tight end finished fourth on the team in targets (51) and receptions (32). Texas Tech struggled defending the TE position this season, allowing five players to score 10 fantasy points or more in their respective matchups. WR Monroe Young ($3,100) is the other cheap option, listed as a starter in place of Davis.
Pivot Play – QB Fernando Mendoza ($6,200) Limited upside here for a non-running QB on an offense that’s focused on feeding its best player in Ott. But if there is a game that shoots out on Saturday, this would be the one. And this would be the ultimate pivot away from Ott. Tech allowed 20.7 FPPG to quarterbacks during the regular season but were 46th in EPA per pass play defensively.
Best of the Rest – WR Jeremiah Hunter ($6,100) Top WR option on the slate as Cal’s leader in all receiving categories, needing just eight targets to hit 100 targets for this first time in his college career. WR1s averaged just 14.5 FPPG against the Red Raiders this season, so this will be a challenge for the Cal wideouts. WR Trond Grizzell ($5,400) emerged late as a solid secondary option with at least nine targets in three of the last five games. His breakout performances, though, came against two of the worst defenses Cal faced this year in USC and Stanford.
Injury / Opt-Out Notes – WR Taj Davis (transfer), QB Sam Jackson (transfer), QB Ben Finley (transfer), RB Isaiah Ifanse (Injury – day to day), WR Brian Hightower (opt-out)
Texas Tech:
Top Play(s) – RB Tahj Brooks ($7,500) Top play on the slate. Cal allowed 17.7 FPPG to RB1s in 2023, were 94th in rush D success rate and Brooks is significantly cheaper than both Ashton Jeanty and Jadyn Ott…for some odd reason. 20+ rushing attempts is a near lock and Brooks hit 100+ rushing yards in eight of his last 10 games. Mildly surprised Brooks announced his decision to come back for his senior year in 2024 – not sure how much left he has to prove.
Fade – WR Jordan Brown ($3,800) Cheating a bit with Brown here as he’s questionable with a hamstring injury, according to HC Joey McGuire. Those are an injury where Brown could very well be suited up and either doesn’t play entirely or gives it a go and the hammy flares up. Brown is replacing Jerand Bradley in the starting lineup, and that spot wasn’t productive in the regular season anyways. WR Brady Boyd ($4,600) would start in his place.
Bargain Bin – WR Drae McCray ($3,500) The former Austin Peay transfer was a Top 100 projected fantasy receiver coming into the year for me, but never transpired, finishing with just 26 receptions and two TDs. McCray enters the starting lineup with Myles Price now in the transfer portal, leaving behind 62 vacated targets for someone to replace.
Pivot Play – QB Behren Morton ($8,000) Copy and paste the argument for Mendoza above, albeit at a much higher price point. Morton is healthy heading into Saturday’s matchup, avoiding possible shoulder surgery, though he will be down two of his starting receivers and possibly three if Jordan Brown is unable to play. Cal allowed the third most fantasy points to quarterbacks this season among teams playing in bowl games and are 115th in pass D success rate. Will Tech let Morton rip it?
Best of the Rest – WR Xavier White ($4,800) or Coy Eakin ($5,000) Production wasn’t there, but Eakin led all Tech receivers the last four games in routes run and snaps played. Finished with a season-high 10 targets in the finale vs. Texas. I prefer White as the WR1 for Tech, though, particularly with Myles Price out of the lineup. 70+ receiving yards in three of the last five games. TE Mason Tharp ($3,400) finished a distant 8th on the team in targets (19), playing in just seven games, but wanted to give a mention because Cal struggled mightily to defend the TE position, allowing over 11 FPPG to TE1s.
Injury / Opt-Out Notes – QB Tyler Shough (transfer), WR Myles Price (transfer), WR Jerand Bradley (transfer), WR Loic Fouonji (transfer), WR JJ Sparkman (transfer), WR Tyler King (transfer), RB Cam’Ron Valdez (transfer)
Georgia Southern vs. Ohio (FANDUEL)
Point-Spread: GSU -3.5
O/U Total: 48.5
Implied Score: GSU 26 – Ohio 22.5
Weather: 55 degrees / 8% rain / 9 mph winds
Georgia Southern:
Top Play(s) – WR Khaleb Hood ($9,200) and / or WR Derwin Burgess ($8,500) I don’t think I’d stack the two in a lineup together given Ohio’s perceived strength on D being the secondary, but it is a possible option given the duo accounted for 46% of the target share and 10 of the 24 receiving touchdowns. Hood is the easy preference of the two on DK in full-point PPR formats, but Burgess’ potential as a big-play threat makes him more appealing on FD. Either way, one of the two in your lineup is a must.
Fade – WR Marcus Sanders ($4,900) Sanders is a listed starter on the depth chart with Anthony Queeley not appearing, but the sophomore receiver did not play in Week 13 and has failed to record a catch in his last two games played. WRs beyond the top two are a risk.
Bargain Bin – TE Jjay Mcafee ($6,200) Strong close to the year for the senior tight end with nine receptions on 13 targets. We saw three 100+ target WRs last year for Georgia Southern but that didn’t transpire in 2023 with no reliable third option behind the top two. Mcafee is essentially the third option in the passing game here in my eyes.
Pivot Play – WR Dalen Cobb ($6,400) Cobb is the verified WR3 behind Hood/Burgess, playing 63 of 65 offensive snaps in the season finale vs. App State, recording four catches on six targets. Georgia Southern was 4th nationally in pass play percentage, so having multiple pass-catchers in your lineups makes some sense.
Best of the Rest – QB Davis Brin ($10,000) Based on pricing and production, Brin is the third best QB option on the slate behind Joey Aguilar and Zion Webb. The Ohio starting secondary appears to be mostly intact from a group that ranked 12th in pass D success rate and gave up only 12.7 FPPG to quarterbacks. I’d limit exposure on Brin if interested in playing him.
Injury / Opt-Out Notes – RB Jalen White (9,000) Game-time decision for DFS players here with White being listed as questionable after missing the Week 13 contest vs. Appalachian State. Is listed atop the game week depth chart. RB OJ Arnold ($6,000) would get the starting nod should White be unavailable. I think it should be noted that White has already announced he’s returning to Georgia Southern in 2024, so the injury would be the only reason he’d miss this game. Ohio ranked 7th nationally in rush D success rate and gave up just 12.8 FPPG to RB1s this season.
Ohio:
Top Play(s) – WR Sam Wiglusz ($7,300) Because who else is left?183 vacated targets with Ohio’s WR2, WR3, and WR4 no longer on the team as they hit the portal for greener pastures. In this case, I’d venture to guess that Ohio leans on their running game with so many defections at quarterback and receiver, but the Bobcats are also without their top two running backs as well. Conventional wisdom suggests when Ohio takes to the air – which may not be a lot – that the ball is going in one direction. Georgia Southern gave up the fifth most fantasy points to opposing WRs among teams playing in bowl games, so this is a favorable matchup for Sammy Wiggles.
Fade – RBs. This is the risk averse quality in me. We see what the depth chart says with Nolan McCormick as RB1 and true freshman Rickey Hunt as the top backup. The 214-pound McCormick does have experience too, rushing for 289 yards on 83 carries as a freshman in 2022. That said, a combined six rushing attempts in one game between the two in 2023, with McCormick having not seen the field yet this season. Depth charts are not written in stone, and it would not surprise to see any one of McCormick, Hunt, QB Parker Navarro or even projected RB3 Quintell Quinn lead the team in carries. FWIW – Georgia Southern allowed 20.5 FPPG to RB1s this season and were 97th in rush D success rate, so it also wouldn’t surprise to see someone thrive on Saturday. Good luck determining who that is.
Bargain Bin – TEs. Will Kacmarek and Tyler Foster will be the two most experienced pass-catchers available for the Bobcats outside of Wiglusz with a combined 41 receptions on 60 targets in 2023. Kacmarek is on the field more of the two, running 30 more passing routes during the regular season, though Foster closed the year on a strong note with six receptions on eight targets over the last two weeks.
Pivot Play – QB Parker Navarro ($6,500) Alongside Navarro on this 3-game early slate are a QB that finished top 10 in fantasy points scored in Joey Aguilar, another QB that will run the ball 15+ times in Zion Webb and another that will throw it 40+ times potentially in Davis Brin. Not to mention Ohio will be missing most/all of its playmakers at receiver and tight end. The one intriguing part to Navarro’s game to keep him in the realm of possibilities is that he can run, with 107 yards on 10 carries in brief appearances in 2023. Navarro rushed for 959 yards and 11 touchdowns on 168 attempts in his senior year of HS.
Best of the Rest – WR Chase Hendricks ($5,400) The 6-foot true freshman played sparingly in 2023 with just eight receptions on 18 targets but should slot into the No. 2 WR role behind Wiglusz. WR Rodney Harris ($4,400) saw just one target all year but is a listed starter on the depth chart.
Injury / Opt-Out Notes – QB Kurtis Rourke (transfer), RB O’Shaan Allison (transfer), RB Sieh Bangura (transfer), WR Miles Cross (transfer), WR Aramoni Rhone (transfer), WR Tyler Walton (transfer)
