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Troy vs. Duke
Point-Spread: Troy -7.5
O/U Total: 44.5
Implied Score: Troy 26 – Duke 18.5
Weather: 57 degrees / 0% rain / 7 mph winds
Troy:
Top Play(s) – RB Kimani Vidal ($8,000) Volume shouldn’t be an issue for Kimani Vidal on Saturday considering he was a workhorse all year, finishing second nationally with 280 rushing attempts, and with Troy being favored by over a touchdown. The Duke rush defense was generally solid this season, allowing just 15.9 FPPG to RB1s and 28th in EPA per run play defensively. But motivation levels have to be considered with multiple defections from the Duke roster, including head coach Mike Elko who departed for Texas A&M. The Blue Devils will be without at least four defenders who played significant snaps this season.
Fade – Backup RBs. See above. Just twice in 2023 did a backup running back account for 10 or more carries in a game. While Troy is favored, this game shouldn’t get completely out of hand to where a backup will see significant time over Vidal.
Bargain Bin – WR Devonte Ross ($3,400) Don’t find many players with 39 receptions on 59 targets being priced this low. Listed as the backup behind WR Deshon Stoudemire ($3,900) on the team depth chart, but Ross actually outtargeted him by one during the regular season. Both players are potential options, but just ensure that they’re not stacked together in a lineup as they play the same position essentially.
Pivot Play – QB Gunnar Watson ($6,700) Watson was far better than most anticipated this season, throwing for 3,300+ passing yards and scoring 20 or more fantasy points in four of the last six games. Watson’s best fantasy outputs this season also came with Troy winning by over a touchdown for those that think the Trojans will just ground and pound their way to victory with Vidal. Duke allowed just 17.6 FPPG to QB1s this season but were 96th in pass D success rate and will be without top defensive back Jaylen Stinson in the secondary.
Best of the Rest – WR Jabre Barber ($4,400) or WR Chris Lewis ($5,700) Really no reason for the discrepancy in prices between Barber and Lewis, as the former leads the team by a significant margin in targets (99-67 edge) and receptions (66-32 edge). The touchdown discrepancy is why, as Lewis doubled up Barber with 10 TDs. Both players are on the field the same amount. Duke allowed just 15.4 FPPG to opposing WR1s with both boundary and slot receivers finding similar success, so no edge to be had there. Would limit my exposure to just one Troy receiver in a lineup if possible.
Injury / Opt-Out Notes – n/a
Duke:
Top Play(s) – WR Jordan Moore ($5,800) Jordan Moore loves the month of November. The converted quarterback began to come into his own back in November of 2022, including a 20-target performance late in the year. Fast forward 365 days, and the same situation occurred with Moore being targeted 11 or more times in four of the last five games played. Most of which with quarterback Grayson Loftis, so there is no issue with rapport between the two. While the Troy defense is stout all around, they Trojans did allow eight different receivers to score 17 or more fantasy points against them in 2023.
Fade – QB Grayson Loftis ($6,100) New HC Manny Diaz and his staff may have a building block in place with Loftis who played well down the stretch for a true freshman with seven passing TDs in his final three games. This isn’t a great matchup, though, facing a Troy defense that allowed just 14.0 FPPG to opposing QBs and were 18th in EPA per pass play defensively. I’d give more consideration to Loftis is he were a runner (he isn’t) and there weren’t better options on the slate (there are).
Bargain Bin – WR Sahmir Hagans ($3,800) Top heavy target share among the top two receivers for Duke in Jordan Moore and Jalon Calhoun, accounting for 60%. Hagans is a distant third at just 25 receptions on 49 targets but is on the field just as much as the aforementioned receivers. Next closest receiver on the team has just six catches.
Pivot Play – WR Jalon Calhoun ($5,500) See above. Most DFS players will flock to Moore in their lineups, and rightfully so, but Calhoun is not that far off in terms of production with 48 receptions on 78 targets with four touchdowns. When Loftis drops back to pass, it’s likely going in one of two directions based on the high target share. If this were a lesser defense the Duke was facing with a higher game total, stacking Calhoun and Moore together would be an option. It is not a strategy to employ for this matchup.
Best of the Rest – RBs. Jaquez Moore pulled out of the transfer portal and will return to Duke in 2024. We have no concrete evidence that he will play on Saturday, but would imagine that is the expectation. Jaylen Coleman, who led the Blue Devils with 11 rushing attempts in the finale vs. Pittsburgh, will be the top backup with Jordan Waters entering the transfer portal. Troy allowed 13.6 FPPG to opposing RB1s with four different Sun Belt running backs scoring 19 or more fantasy points against them. One of Duke’s starting OL opted out in preparation for the Senior Bowl which also downgrades the running game. I’d avoid, personally, unless we get confirmation Moore is playing.
Injury / Opt-Out Notes – QB Riley Leonard (transfer), RB Jordan Waters (transfer)
Arkansas State vs. Northern Illinois
Point-Spread: Ark St -3
O/U Total: 53.5
Implied Score: Ark St 28 – NIU 25
Weather: 60 degrees / 0% rain / 6 mph winds
Arkansas St:
Top Play(s) –
theCFFsite’s Heisman Members can view the full article here, and Heisman/All-American Members can access the Bowl Season Player Projections here.
Become an All-American or Heisman Member and get access to our exclusive members-only content and an invite into theCFFsite Discord.