Troy vs. Duke
Point-Spread: Troy -7.5
O/U Total: 44.5
Implied Score: Troy 26 – Duke 18.5
Weather: 57 degrees / 0% rain / 7 mph winds
Troy:
Top Play(s) – RB Kimani Vidal ($8,000) Volume shouldn’t be an issue for Kimani Vidal on Saturday considering he was a workhorse all year, finishing second nationally with 280 rushing attempts, and with Troy being favored by over a touchdown. The Duke rush defense was generally solid this season, allowing just 15.9 FPPG to RB1s and 28th in EPA per run play defensively. But motivation levels have to be considered with multiple defections from the Duke roster, including head coach Mike Elko who departed for Texas A&M. The Blue Devils will be without at least four defenders who played significant snaps this season.
Fade – Backup RBs. See above. Just twice in 2023 did a backup running back account for 10 or more carries in a game. While Troy is favored, this game shouldn’t get completely out of hand to where a backup will see significant time over Vidal.
Bargain Bin – WR Devonte Ross ($3,400) Don’t find many players with 39 receptions on 59 targets being priced this low. Listed as the backup behind WR Deshon Stoudemire ($3,900) on the team depth chart, but Ross actually outtargeted him by one during the regular season. Both players are potential options, but just ensure that they’re not stacked together in a lineup as they play the same position essentially.
Pivot Play – QB Gunnar Watson ($6,700) Watson was far better than most anticipated this season, throwing for 3,300+ passing yards and scoring 20 or more fantasy points in four of the last six games. Watson’s best fantasy outputs this season also came with Troy winning by over a touchdown for those that think the Trojans will just ground and pound their way to victory with Vidal. Duke allowed just 17.6 FPPG to QB1s this season but were 96th in pass D success rate and will be without top defensive back Jaylen Stinson in the secondary.
Best of the Rest – WR Jabre Barber ($4,400) or WR Chris Lewis ($5,700) Really no reason for the discrepancy in prices between Barber and Lewis, as the former leads the team by a significant margin in targets (99-67 edge) and receptions (66-32 edge). The touchdown discrepancy is why, as Lewis doubled up Barber with 10 TDs. Both players are on the field the same amount. Duke allowed just 15.4 FPPG to opposing WR1s with both boundary and slot receivers finding similar success, so no edge to be had there. Would limit my exposure to just one Troy receiver in a lineup if possible.
Injury / Opt-Out Notes – n/a
Duke:
Top Play(s) – WR Jordan Moore ($5,800) Jordan Moore loves the month of November. The converted quarterback began to come into his own back in November of 2022, including a 20-target performance late in the year. Fast forward 365 days, and the same situation occurred with Moore being targeted 11 or more times in four of the last five games played. Most of which with quarterback Grayson Loftis, so there is no issue with rapport between the two. While the Troy defense is stout all around, they Trojans did allow eight different receivers to score 17 or more fantasy points against them in 2023.
Fade – QB Grayson Loftis ($6,100) New HC Manny Diaz and his staff may have a building block in place with Loftis who played well down the stretch for a true freshman with seven passing TDs in his final three games. This isn’t a great matchup, though, facing a Troy defense that allowed just 14.0 FPPG to opposing QBs and were 18th in EPA per pass play defensively. I’d give more consideration to Loftis is he were a runner (he isn’t) and there weren’t better options on the slate (there are).
Bargain Bin – WR Sahmir Hagans ($3,800) Top heavy target share among the top two receivers for Duke in Jordan Moore and Jalon Calhoun, accounting for 60%. Hagans is a distant third at just 25 receptions on 49 targets but is on the field just as much as the aforementioned receivers. Next closest receiver on the team has just six catches.
Pivot Play – WR Jalon Calhoun ($5,500) See above. Most DFS players will flock to Moore in their lineups, and rightfully so, but Calhoun is not that far off in terms of production with 48 receptions on 78 targets with four touchdowns. When Loftis drops back to pass, it’s likely going in one of two directions based on the high target share. If this were a lesser defense the Duke was facing with a higher game total, stacking Calhoun and Moore together would be an option. It is not a strategy to employ for this matchup.
Best of the Rest – RBs. Jaquez Moore pulled out of the transfer portal and will return to Duke in 2024. We have no concrete evidence that he will play on Saturday, but would imagine that is the expectation. Jaylen Coleman, who led the Blue Devils with 11 rushing attempts in the finale vs. Pittsburgh, will be the top backup with Jordan Waters entering the transfer portal. Troy allowed 13.6 FPPG to opposing RB1s with four different Sun Belt running backs scoring 19 or more fantasy points against them. One of Duke’s starting OL opted out in preparation for the Senior Bowl which also downgrades the running game. I’d avoid, personally, unless we get confirmation Moore is playing.
Injury / Opt-Out Notes – QB Riley Leonard (transfer), RB Jordan Waters (transfer)
Arkansas State vs. Northern Illinois
Point-Spread: Ark St -3
O/U Total: 53.5
Implied Score: Ark St 28 – NIU 25
Weather: 60 degrees / 0% rain / 6 mph winds
Arkansas St:
Top Play(s) – QB Jaylen Raynor ($7,500) For many viewers, this will be the first glimpse of a very promising dual-threat true freshman in Raynor who has the look of a future fantasy stud at the QB position in 2024. There were some definite learning experiences in the final month, failing to score 15 fantasy points in the final three games, but consider that Raynor did face two of the better defenses in the Sun Belt in South Alabama and Marshall, both of which on the road. NIU’s secondary grades out very well, ranked 12th in the country in pass D success rate, but those numbers were inflated by a downtrodden MAC conference that did not possess much firepower offensively this season. Raynor won’t have much ownership given his pricing but has 40+ slate-breaking upside he’s shown multiple times already.
Fade – n/a – All Arkansas State starters are priced appropriately to where they’re a potential option.
Bargain Bin – RB Cedric Hawkins ($3,400) Longshot option, if RB Zak Wallace ($4,500) does not play. Arkansas State decided to burn his redshirt in November with injuries in the backfield, and Hawkins looks like a contributor down the road, rushing for 95 yards in his final four games. Breakout performance in the blowout of Texas State with two rushing TDs – albeit while Arkansas State was up by four touchdowns.
Pivot Play – RB JaQuez Cross ($5,400) The former Purdue transfer emerged as the team’s best running back during the month of November with double-digit carries in each of the final four games. Much like his teammates, Cross had a monster day against Texas State with 139 yards and three scores on 13 attempts. NIU allowed just 12.5 FPPG to opposing RB1s during the regular season, but the Huskies can be run on, ranking 111th in EPA per run play and 92nd in rush D success rate.
Best of the Rest – WRs. Top three of Courtney Jackson, Corey Rucker and Jeff Foreman are priced appropriately to where they’re all an option. Trio combined for 56% of the team target share and 11 of the 15 receiving touchdowns, so would only choose from this group. Jackson led the Red Wolves with seven touchdowns, averaging 6.5 targets over the last six games – highest on the team. Rucker was a disappointment after transferring back to Arkansas State after spending a year with South Carolina, leading the team with six drops, a 43% catch rate and zero TDs. NIU allowed the 9th fewest fantasy points to wide receivers among teams playing in bowl games. I’d limit to one Arkansas State WR in a lineup.
Injury / Opt-Out Notes – n/a
Northern Illinois:
Top Play(s) – RB Antario Brown ($6,900) Second-best RB option on the slate next to Kairee Robinson as Brown finished his sophomore season with 1,162 yards and 11 touchdowns and should hit the 200+ carry mark for the first time in his career on Saturday. Prime matchup against an Arkansas State defense that allowed 18.2 FPPG to opposing RB1s and ranked 106th in EPA per run play defensively.
Fade – WR Jalen Johnson ($3,700) Did very little with his starting opportunities in the second half of the season, with just seven receptions in the final four games played. Johnson started against Kent State in the finale but had a drop and was relegated to just six offensive snaps in that matchup…seemingly benched.
Bargain Bin – TE Grayson Barnes ($4,500) The 6-foot-5 FCS transfer is a de facto tight end with a wide receiver frame at 6-foot-5, 215 pounds. Playing time increased as the season went along, catching four touchdowns in the final seven games.
Pivot Play – QB Rocky Lombardi ($7,000) I’d imagine Lombardi will have very low ownership numbers given the other QB options on the slate. The matchup dictates we consider him, though, given that Arkansas State is equally as poor against the pass as they are vs. the run, allowing 21.2 FPPG to quarterbacks and are 110th in pass D success rate. Given this is likely Lombardi’s final opportunity to play football at any level, don’t be surprised to see him throw his body around some in the running game as a very capable runner.
Best of the Rest – WR Trayvon Rudolph ($6,100) Rudolph announced this week that he was returning to NIU for 2024 after a brief stint in the transfer portal. Team-highs with 23% target share and 509 receiving yards. 44 of his 73 targets this season came in the final five games of the regular season and is a threat as a runner on jet sweeps which adds to his value. Arkansas State allows the most fantasy points to wide receivers among teams playing in bowl games. RB Gavin Williams ($5,500) had a strong performance in the finale with 103 rushing yards on 17 carries, but I believe that was in conjunction with Antario Brown being injured vs. Kent State. Assuming Brown is full-go, Williams won’t see the volume necessary to reach value.
Injury / Opt-Out Notes – n/a
James Madison vs. Air Force
Point-Spread: JMU -2.5
O/U Total: 41.5
Implied Score: JMU 22 – AF 19.5
Weather: 66 degrees / 39% rain / 13 mph winds
James Madison:
Top Play(s) – QB Jordan McCloud ($4,500) The uncertainty is the only reason this is not a lock. Despite being in the transfer portal, McCloud is listed atop the depth chart and expecting to start on Saturday. That would mean the QB8 in college fantasy football this season is min priced at $4.5k. Air Force has been mediocre against the pass in 2023, allowing 18.3 FPPG to opposing quarterbacks and 91st in pass D success rate. Should we get an announcement pregame that McCloud is not playing, redshirt freshman QB Alonza Barnett ($5,700) would get the nod. While his debut performance in Week 1 was a disaster, he did win the starting job over McCloud coming out of fall camp so there is something to work with there.
Fade – RB Ty’Son Lawton ($3,000) Lawton committed to Indiana on Wednesday night, and while still on the depth chart, our assumption is that he’ll sit. Air Force isn’t the best matchup anyways, allowing just 11.8 FPPG to RB1s, and JMU typically instilled a RBBC during the regular season with Lawton and RB Kaelon Black ($3,000) – also in the portal but not committed to any school yet. If our assumptions prove correct, Black would start. If both don’t play, avoid the JMU backfield entirely against the Air Force defense that is 26th in rush D success rate.
Bargain Bin – WR Elijah Sarratt ($3,000) Best overall play on the entire slate…. IF…. he plays. JMU’s leading receiver is currently in the portal but not committed anywhere as of Thursday writing this. Will need to ensure Sarratt is dressed before warmups if considering but lock him in if we get word he’s playing.
Pivot Play – WR Reggie Brown ($5,700) There is no uncertainty surrounding Brown’s status for Saturday. The senior receiver hit 1,000 receiving yards in 2023, catching six touchdown passes in his final six games, averaging 7.3 targets per contest. Air Force allowed the fourth fewest fantasy points to opposing receivers among teams playing in bowl games.
Best of the Rest – WR Phoenix Sproles ($4,500) Third on the team in routes run, receiving yards (347) and targets (65) with a 73% catch rate. JMU rarely rotated receivers this season, so long as the group remains intact, Sproles, Brown and Sarratt are the only options. TE Zach Horton ($3,000) finished third on the team with six receiving touchdowns, four of which came in the final month. Horton is also in the portal but remains uncommitted. \
Injury / Opt-Out Notes – QB Jordan McCloud (transfer), RB Kaelon Black (transfer), TE Zach Horton (transfer), WR Elijah Sarratt (transfer), RB Ty’Son Lawton (transfer)
Air Force:
Top Play(s) – FB Dylan Carson ($4,500) Assuming Emmanuel Michel doesn’t play or is limited, Carson is the top FB option in the AF backfield, hitting 80+ rushing yards in each of the final three games to end the regular season. Downgraded if Michel is in the lineup. James Madison is No. 1 in rush D success rate and allowed just 11.7 FPPG to RB1s during the regular season.
Fade – WRs. Air Force is dead last in the country in pass play percentage, and the top two WRs could miss the contest.
Bargain Bin – FB Owen Burk ($4,600) Burk is the listed starter on the depth chart but is the least talented of the Air Force trio of fullbacks with Carson and Emmanuel Michel. Given the slight discount, I’d lean Carson of the two.
Pivot Play – QB Zac Larrier ($6,500) Larrier is expected to start on Saturday after missing the last two games to injury. Extreme variance with his fantasy performances because of the style of offense Air Force employs, but we know Larrier will run the ball 10+ times. Not necessarily a good thing when facing James Madison, but prep for Air Force and the option during bowl season can be challenging no matter the opponent.
Best of the Rest – n/a
Injury / Opt-Out Notes – RB John Lee Eldridge ($3,000) Because he’s min priced; this will be one to monitor pregame. JLE announced his intentions to enter the transfer portal but is still listed atop the bowl game depth chart. Can’t find anything definitive as of Wednesday writing this. RB Emmanuel Michel ($5,700) is listed fourth at the bottom of the depth chart in italics, stating “expected back from injury, complete status unknown at press time.” Good luck figuring out if he’s playing or not with HC Troy Calhoun being a DFS enemy when it comes to injury news.
Georgia State vs. Utah State
Point-Spread: USU – 2.5
O/U Total: 59.5
Implied Score: USU 31 – GSU 28.5
Weather: 36 degrees / 4% rain / 15 mph winds
Georgia State:
Top Play(s) – QB Darren Grainger ($7,400) Favorite QB play on the slate by far. If there ever was a time to let it fly, it would be in a meaningless bowl game, against a below-average defense, in a matchup where your offense will be without a 270+ carry running back. Utah State allowed 20 FPPG to opposing QBs this season, but running quarterbacks really hurt the Aggies…and we know Grainger is mobile. Jordan McCloud rushed for 26 yards and two TDs against Utah State. Devon Dampier had 36 rush yards and two TDs. Chevan Cordeiro rushed for a season-high 53 yards in his matchup with Utah State. This offense will center solely around Grainger with Marcus Carroll off to Missouri.
Fade – WR Ja’Cyais Credle ($3,400) Credle left the season-finale after just six offensive snaps due to an undisclosed injury. Listed as a starter on the bowl game depth chart, but we won’t find any updates on an obscure Georgia State receiver on a 7-game slate. Play it conservative and just fade outright.
Bargain Bin – TE Ahmon Green ($4,600) Closed the year on a high note with two receiving touchdowns in the finale vs. Old Dominion. Green finished just sixth on the team in targets (21), but the matchup dictates him being an option. Utah State allowed over 10 FPPG to opposing TE1s this season – third most among teams playing in bowl games.
Pivot Play – RB Freddie Brock ($4,500) Difficult to know what Georgia State has left in the backfield with 300+ carries this season went to the team’s top two running backs. Brock is listed as the RB1 on the depth chart after seeing just six carries this season. Notes from HC Shawn Elliott state that Brock will be “predominately taking most of the carries in the game.” Backup freshman Jaylen Foster garnered praise from Darren Grainger as a “young guy they’re getting the chance to groove into the offense.” Utah State allowed THE MOST fantasy points per game to RB1s among teams playing in bowl games this season.
Best of the Rest – WRs. 103 vacated targets with Robert Lewis shipping out, so we need to uncover who will be the primary option (if there will be one). WR Tallique Williams ($5,400) gets the heavy nod as the new WR1, finishing second on the team in targets (63), touchdowns (5) and routes run. The Utah State secondary allowed just one wideout to score more than 19 fantasy points this season, limiting WR1s to just 13 FPPG. That said, those WR1s averaged almost 6 fantasy points more than their seasonal average when facing the Aggies this season. WR Jacari Carter ($3,600) is the listed backup to Williams but has been more effective than the remaining starter with a 72% catch rate on 47 targets. WR Cadarrius Thompson ($3,600) was fourth on the team in routes run and fourth in targets (32), but just 149 receiving yards on the season.
Injury / Opt-Out Notes – RB Marcus Carroll (transfer), WR Robert Lewis (transfer), RB KZ Adams (transfer)
Utah State:
Top Play(s) – QB Levi Williams ($6,400) OK, I lied…Williams might be my favorite QB on the slate. So if you want to game stack, here is your opportunity. Matchup is great, facing a Georgia State defense that was one of the worst in the country the second half of the year, allowing the second most fantasy points to QB1s among teams playing in bowl games. Williams is a below average passer but is a dynamic runner of the football as shown in the finale with 100+ rushing yards and three scores against New Mexico. We also have the storybook ending narrative as Williams is quitting football after the season to begin Navy SEAL training. That will be mentioned all game long, no doubt.
Fade – RB Robert Briggs ($4,900) Briggs did not play in the season finale and is questionable for Saturday, but even without the injury concern, the sophomore running back has seemingly fallen out of favor in the rotation. Last time all three of Utah State’s top RBs were available in a game – Week 10 vs. San Diego State – Briggs was third in carries. Georgia State’s strength on defense is definitively against the run, ranking 33rd in rush D success rate.
Bargain Bin – WR Colby Bowman ($4,400) The former Stanford transfer will step into a starting role now that Micah Davis is out for the year due to a foot injury. Just nine receptions and two TDs on the year, but there are 59 vacated targets with Davis out of the lineup.
Pivot Play – RB Davon Booth ($5,500) This rotation for Utah State in the backfield still confuses me after 12 games. No question this is an RBBC, that is convoluted further with a running QB like Williams now under center. RB Rahsul Faison ($4,300) was outstanding to close the year with two 100-yard rushing performances against Nevada and New Mexico. That said, Booth didn’t play in the Nevada matchup and was relegated to the bench after fumbling against New Mexico. In most instances where both Faison and Booth were available (and not fumbling), it was the latter who led the team in carries. Booth remains atop the team depth chart and will see far less ownership at his substantially higher price point.
Best of the Rest – WR Jalen Royals ($6,900) and/or WR Terrell Vaughn ($6,800) Last time Utah State played with Levi Williams at QB, 20 of the 25 passes went in the direction of either Royals or Vaughn. Play one solo or stack the two together, but one absolutely should be in your lineup, especially now with Micah Davis out. Georgia State has allowed the fourth most fantasy points to wide receivers among teams playing in bowl games.
Injury / Opt-Out Notes – QB Cooper Legas ($6,800) Not listed on the DC and will not play in the bowl game with a shoulder injury. WR Micah Davis ($5,000) had foot surgery and will return to the team in the spring.
South Alabama vs. Eastern Michigan
Point-Spread: USA -16.5
O/U Total: 46.5
Implied Score: USA 31.5 – EMU 15
Weather: 78 degrees / 0% rain / 11 mph winds
South Alabama:
Top Play(s) – RB Braylon McReynolds ($5,100) La’Damian Webb is off to the NFL and South Alabama has plenty of options to replace his productivity, namely the sophomore McReynolds who rushed for 90 yards on 18 carries in the narrow loss to Texas State in the finale. His name was first out of the mouth of HC Kane Wommack when discussing possible replacements for Webb leading up to Saturday. EMU was atrocious against the run this season, allowing over 20 FPPG to RB1s and 94th in rush D success rate.
Fade – QBs. Carter Bradley is practicing but currently dealing with a knee injury that he suffered late in the year. This quote from Wommack is why I’m avoiding entirely – “I think we’ll play multiple quarterbacks in the game for sure.” Could get messy. Gio Lopez and/or Desmond Trotter might see time.
Bargain Bin – TE DJ Thomas-Jones ($4,100) DJTJ’s performance in the finale with 9-56-3 on 10 targets is undoubtedly an outlier and not the standard, considering those were the first three touchdowns he scored all year. But no Caullin Lacy, means over 100+ vacated targets to be dispersed to other options. EMU really struggled to defend the TE position this season, allowing four players to score 12 or more fantasy points against them.
Pivot Play – WR Javon Ivory ($4,200) Ivory was a relative non-factor after transferring in from Memphis despite playing 61% of the team’s offensive snaps this season, averaging just 1.3 touches on 3.2 targets per contest. Ivory did play a season-high 46 passing routes with 4-85-1 on seven targets in the finale vs. Texas State, though those numbers are inflated a tad with the two teams combining for over 100 plays and 100 points. But again, targets are available with Lacy no longer with the team.
Best of the Rest – WR Jamaal Pritchett ($5,900) Pritchett will step in as the team’s WR1 with Lacy out of the lineup, finishing with five receiving TDs in the last five games. Eastern Michigan allowed just 13.4 FPPG to WR1s this season and were 22nd in pass D success rate, so this is a good secondary for the Eagles. That said, there were not a lot of prolific passing offenses in the MAC this season. With Lacy out, WR Anthony Eager ($3,000) is listed as a current starter on the depth chart. Does not have a single target in 2023 and his recruiting profile shows that South Alabama was the only FBS team to offer him out of high school. Former Ole Miss transfer RB Kentrell Bullock ($5,700) is expected to be the RB2 behind McReynolds. Wommack stated that they’re “looking forward to seeing what he can do. He’s had a couple of good practice days here.” Assuming this is the blowout Vegas expects, he could have value.
Injury / Opt-Out Notes – RB La’Damian Webb (NFL), WR Caullin Lacy (portal)
Eastern Michigan:
Top Play(s) – RB Samson Evans ($6,700) Simply by default here because there is no other option. While Evans did rush for 13 touchdowns this season, volume was down substantially as he averaged just 12 rushing attempts per game, splitting time with backup Jaylon Jackson much of the year. Closed the regular season with nearly 200 combined yards with four touchdowns in the last two games, but against two of the worst teams in the MAC in Akron and Buffalo. I expect EMU to attempt a run-heavy approach Saturday, but unlikely to be that effective against a South Alabama run defense that ranked 14th in EPA per run play and 20th in rush D success rate. Just two RBs scored over 20 fantasy points against USA all year long.
Fade – QB Ike Udengwu III ($5,500) Expect EMU to pull out its bag of tricks against a superior opponent with the Eagles playing with a backup quarterback. While he didn’t show it during the regular season in his brief appearances, Udengwu is a capable runner, rushing for 318 yards on 44 attempts at the Division III level in 2022. That’s not enough to garner much interest from me as Udengwu will struggle to complete passes against this secondary.
Bargain Bin – TE Jere Getzinger ($3,100) Cheapest plausible option on the EMU offense, catching 16 passes on 20 targets, with two receptions in each of the last two games. EMU lost a rotational tight end to the portal, so it’s feasible Getzinger sees a slight uptick in playing time.
Pivot Play – RB Jaylon Jackson ($5,900) Strong close to the year for Jackson who was essentially the 1B to Evans in the backfield, scoring a combined 67 fantasy points over the last month. Averaged 14 rushing attempts per over the last three games. When EMU does look to pass, it won’t be down the field, so Jackson should be a factor with dump-offs or screens, finishing fourth on the team with 22 catches on 29 targets. Was targeted nine times back in Week 9 vs. Western Michigan in a pass-heavy game script.
Best of the Rest – WRs. No major opt-outs amongst this group, so the same starting trio is expected of Tanner Knue, JB Mitchell III, and Hamze El-Zayat. Six different receivers did score 20 fantasy points against South Alabama this season, and the backend is the weaker part of this defense, ranking 70th in EPA per pass play. Limit one EMU receiver in a lineup if you choose this route.
Injury / Opt-Out Notes – QB Austin Smith (portal), TE Andreas Paaske (portal), WR Javon Swinton (portal)
Utah vs. Northwestern
Point-Spread: Utah -6.5
O/U Total: 41.5
Implied Score: Utah 24 – NW 17.5
Weather: Dome
Utah:
Top Play(s) – QB Bryson Barnes ($4,500) Barnes, who is currently in the transfer portal, has been practicing with the team the last several weeks and is listed atop the depth chart. He’ll be expected to start, and this is a showcase opportunity for Barnes with prospective teams looking for a QB in the portal. Northwestern is very mediocre against the pass for a B1G defense, allowing 17 FPPG to QB1s and 99th in pass D success rate.
Fade – RB Ja’Quinden Jackson ($5,900) Jackson was a major disappointment this season from a fantasy standpoint, due in large part to suffering multiple ankle injuries throughout the year. While listed atop the depth chart, there are rumors swirling that Jackson is considering transferring, with the beat writer stating “at this point that is more hope than anything else” that the RB1 sticks around. Utah has plenty of depth and Jackson has reason to sit with his injury history.
Bargain Bin – TE Landen King ($3,300) We know Utah’s preference of utilizing the tight end position in the passing game, just haven’t had the horses this year with Brant Kuithe out with injury and Thomas Yassmin failing to live up to the preseason hype. Auburn transfer Landen King emerged down the stretch as an athletic option over the middle of the field with 11 of his 14 receptions coming in the final month.
Pivot Play – RB Jaylon Glover ($4,300) See above on Jackson. Glover came on strong down the stretch, averaging over four yards a carry in each of the final five games, including 107 yards on 17 attempts in the finale vs. Colorado. Northwestern allowed over 17 FPPG to RB1s this season and were 65th in rush D success rate. There’s a clear path to Glover being a really strong play on Saturday. In a wild twist, RB Micah Bernard ($3,000) is also expected back after missing all but one game this season due to injury and will boost the RB depth.
Best of the Rest – WRs. The starting group is listed as such – Money Parks, Munir McClain and Luca Caldarella. 30 of the 46 combined receptions in 2023 between them belong to Parks, so he gets the nod as the top option. But this feels like a run-based approach for the Utes with so many key contributors in the portal or off to the NFL. Redshirt freshman Sidney Mbanasor has reportedly made some plays in bowl practices, but zero on-field experience for the Utes. I’d likely fade this group outside of Parks.
Injury / Opt-Out Notes – WR Devaughn Vele (NFL), Mycah Pittman (injury), WR Makai Cope (transfer), QB Nate Johnson (transfer), WR Mikey Matthews (transfer), TE Thomas Yassmin (injury)
Northwestern:
Top Play(s) – WR Cam Johnson ($5,200) NW’s team leader in all receiving categories, who also was at his best to close the year, scoring a touchdown in each of the last four games. Utah’s strength is the secondary but did allow 20 FPPG to opposing WR1s this season, though that was prevalent for most defenses in the Pac-12 facing the dynamic offenses in the conference.
Fade – QB Ben Bryant ($6,000) In fairness to Bryant, he played well down the stretch with two 20+ point performances in the final three games in road matchups with Wisconsin and Illinois. He’s a non-runner, though, against a top secondary in the Utes who rank 13th in pass play success rate and gave up just 15.4 FPPG to quarterbacks. FWIW – Utah will be without three key contributors on defense, including star defensive end Jonah Ellis, so the Utes won’t be at full strength.
Bargain Bin – n/a – Nobody worth considering under $5k unless we get some late injury/opt-out news.
Pivot Play – RB Cam Porter ($5,200) Volume has remained consistent for Porter for much of the season, hitting double digit carries in 10 of 12 games played, including averaging 17 attempts per over the last three weeks. While Utah will be without its best player in the front seven, Northwestern did see one of its starting linemen hit the portal after the season concluded. I’m not confident NW will find much running room against a defense that allowed just 14.2 FPPG to RB1s, but the volume should still be there for Porter.
Best of the Rest – WR AJ Henning ($5,300) or WR Bryce Kirtz ($5,000) Very top-heavy target share among the three starting Northwestern WRs, combining for 65% of the targets. Teams averaged 34 pass attempts per game vs. Utah this season – 42nd most in the country – so it’s not out of the realm of possibility to have two Northwestern receivers in a lineup. Probably not optimal, though, with Ben Bryant as your QB.
Injury / Opt-Out Notes – n/a
Coastal Carolina vs. San Jose State
Point-Spread: SJSU -9.5
O/U Total: 51.5
Implied Score: SJSU 30.5 – CC 21
Weather: 74 degrees / 0% rain / 22 mph winds
Coastal Carolina:
Top Play(s) – QB Ethan Vasko ($6,600) No depth chart released for Coastal yet as of Wednesday writing this, probably because there are currently 18 Chanticleers in the portal currently, and sorting out who is actually going to play must be a nightmare. Vasko is expected to get the starting nod per head coach Tim Beck, and we’ve already seen one slate-breaking type performance from the freshman quarterback in 2023, rushing for 170 yards on 21 carries against Old Dominion. Vasko is a willing passer, so he can be played solo or paired with a Coastal receiver. San Jose State was strong defensively this season, holding opposing QBs to just 14.9 FPPG.
Fade – RB Reese White ($4,700) No Coastal running back had more than 10 carries in either of the final two games to close the year White seeing just six combined rushing attempts in that span. CCU will split carries four ways most likely between three running backs and Vasko.
Bargain Bin – TE Kendall Karr ($3,500) Fourth on the team in routes run and tied for second with four receiving touchdowns. Desperation play here as Karr was targeted just 24 times during the regular season and faces a SJSU defense that allowed just one tight end all year to score more than eight fantasy points in a game.
Pivot Play – RB Braydon Bennett ($5,400) Bennett’s rushing volume has taken a severe hit in the second half of the season, averaging just five rushing attempts per game. Despite that, the junior back still finished as the team’s leading rusher with 384 yards and five touchdowns, while also being a factor in the passing game with 20 receptions on 24 targets. Huge risk to play Bennett, but San Jose State’s rush defense is the weakness on that side of the ball, allowing 17.3 FPPG to RB1s and 107th in rush D success rate.
Best of the Rest – WR Sam Pinckney ($5,600) San Jose State possesses one of the stronger secondaries among G5 teams, ranking 30th in pass D success rate and allowing just 14.5 FPPG to opposing WR1s. But who else is catching the football for the Chants on Saturday? 50% target share went to Pinckney and Jared Brown, with the latter no longer on the team having since transferred to South Carolina. Pinckney will be the go-to option in the passing game. WR Jameson Tucker ($4,600) finished third on the team in targets and routes run, closing the year with 40 or more receiving yards in five of the last seven games.
Injury / Opt-Out Notes – QB Grayson McCall (transfer), QB Jarrett Guest (transfer), RB CJ Beasley (transfer), WR Tyson Mobley (transfer), WR Jared Brown (transfer), WR Chris Rhone (transfer)
San Jose State:
Top Play(s) – RB Kairee Robinson ($8,100) Our fourth highest projected player of the entire bowl season – including quarterbacks. Robinson was one of the best fantasy running backs in the country this season, rushing for 1,124 yards and 20 touchdowns…on just 157 carries. Extremely proficient. CCU only allowed 13.8 FPPG to opposing RB1s this season, but that number is deceiving. The Chanticleers rank 113th in EPA per run play defensively and 104th in rush D success rate.
Fade – QB Chevan Cordeiro ($7,900) Not an outright fade, but limit exposure here as Cordeiro should not be the highest priced QB on the slate, scoring 20+ fantasy points in just five games this season. Coastal’s secondary is the strength of the defense and did not experience any defections to the portal among the starters. The Chants allowed just 19 FPPG to QB1s this season and were 32nd in EPA per pass play defensively.
Bargain Bin – TE Sam Olson ($3,600) Olson should see increased usage with starting tight end Dominick Mazotti in the transfer portal. And we saw a brief glimpse of his talent in the finale vs. UNLV with 6-86-1 on seven targets. I like Olson as the best receiving target of any SJSU pass-catcher.
Pivot Play – Stacking the SJSU Backfield. The Spartans had been a pass-happy offense in previous seasons under head coach Brent Brennan. While SJSU is still 70th in rush play percentage, that number is substantially higher than previous seasons. RB Quali Conley is one of the better G5 backups in the country, averaging 6.4 YPC this season with eight touchdowns. Averaged 15 attempts per game over the last five weeks, and we already spoke on how poor the CCU run defense is. If you don’t want to stack, fading Robinson for Conley is a longshot option for GPP only.
Best of the Rest – WRs. No surprise opt-outs at receiver and San Jose State has had the same starting trio for the majority of the season in Charles Ross, Malikhi Miller and Nick Nash. Six different WRs have scored 19 or more fantasy points against CCU this season and they all should be fairly low owned. Nash led the team in every receiving category, including nearly 50% of the team’s receiving touchdowns, so he gets the nod as the top choice. Nowhere near as talented as previous San Jose State standouts like Elijah Cooks, so none of the Spartan receivers are a high priority.
Injury / Opt-Out Notes – TE Dominick Mazotti (transfer)
