theCFFsite’s Heisman Members can view the full article here, and Heisman/All-American Members can access the Bowl Season Player Projections here.
Become an All-American or Heisman Member and get access to our exclusive members-only content and an invite into theCFFsite Discord.
Bowling Green vs. Minnesota
Point-Spread: Minn -3.5
O/U Total: 39.5
Implied Score: Minn 21.5 – BG 18
Weather: Dome
Bowling Green:
Top Play(s) – TE Harold Fannin ($6,600) How often have you seen a tight end be a team’s highest projected player? Normally I’d say that’s indicative of the rest of the Bowling Green offensive talent, but Fannin finished the season as TE3 behind only Brock Bowers and Dallin Holker from a FPPG perspective (13.6). Fannin was at his best late in the season as well, scoring 17 or more fantasy points in each of the last four games, targeted 27 times in that span. Must figure this will be a positive game script matchup for the Bowling Green pass-catchers being a 4.5-point underdog and injury concerns at running back.
Fade – QBs. The two other games on this slate have quarterbacks on both sides with higher projections than Connor Bazelak, who is a non-runner that will split reps at times with backup Camden Orth as we saw during MACtion.
Bargain Bin – See below if Terion Stewart is unavailable.
Pivot Play – RB Terion Stewart ($5,800) Will monitor pregame for Stewart’s status, as he was called a game-time decision by HC Scot Loeffler. With November star Ta’Ron Keith in the portal and not on the depth chart, should Stewart be healthy enough to play, he’ll get the lion’s share of the carries against what was a poor B1G run defense in Minnesota. 90th in rush D success rate and 97th in EPA per run play. If Stewart is out, experienced backup RB Jaisun Patterson ($3,000) would be next man up, and a potential option at min pricing. 233 carries of experience.
Best of the Rest – WRs. As stated above, game script should work in favor of the BG pass-catchers, particularly if Terion Stewart is not available. Top heavy target share among the three starting receivers, combining for 56% between Odieu Hilaire, Austin Osborne and Abdul-Fatai Ibrahim. Next closest WR has just 16 targets. Hilaire, a 700-yard receiver in 2022, saw a steep decline in production this season, but closed on a high not with 17 of his 63 targets coming in the last two games alone. He’s the upside play among the BG receivers.
Injury / Opt-Out Notes – RB Ta’Ron Keith (portal), TE Andrew Bench (portal), RB Terion Stewart (injury)
Minnesota:
Top Play(s) – RB Darius Taylor ($6,400) The freshman phenom is expected to make his triumphant return after no playing since Week 8. As has been the case for much of PJ Fleck’s tenure with the Gophers, this staff loves feeding their RB1, as we saw with Taylor who averaged over 25 rushing attempts per game in four starts. Assuming Fleck has his boys motivated, Minnesota should feasibly win up front, leading to a big day for Taylor.
Fade – QB Cole Kramer ($5,800) Here is the first sentence in an article written about Minnesota’s QB1 by the Minnesota Star Tribune. “Cole Kramer was ready to get on with his life.” That was before the Gopher coaching staff pleaded with Kramer to come back for one final game following the transfer of starting quarterback Athan Kaliakmanis. The fifth-year senior will make his first career start on Tuesday, and then will get married to his fiancée in February and pursue a career in sales as the happy couple moves to Arizona. Doesn’t sound like a quarterback I want if trying to make money with my DFS lineups.
Bargain Bin – Pass-Catchers. Everyone outside of Jackson is a risk because we don’t foresee Minnesota passing much with a future accountant at quarterback. Corey Crooms is entering the NFL Draft but will play Tuesday. Chris Autman-Bell has the narrative storyline going for him as the oft-injured senior in his final game. Tight end Brevyn Spann-Ford is the team’s third leading receiver with 25 receptions on 46 targets and two scores. Would not have more than one Minnesota pass-catcher in a lineup.
Pivot Play –
theCFFsite’s Heisman Members can view the full article here, and Heisman/All-American Members can access the Bowl Season Player Projections here.
Become an All-American or Heisman Member and get access to our exclusive members-only content and an invite into theCFFsite Discord.