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North Carolina vs. West Virginia
Point-Spread: WV -6.5
O/U Total: 54.5
Implied Score: WV 30.5 – UNC 24
Weather: 62 degrees / 11% rain / 7 mph winds
North Carolina:
Top Play(s) – RB Omarion Hampton ($8,500) With no Drake Maye, the game plan should be simple for the Heels – hand the ball to your best offensive player in Omarion Hampton. The stud sophomore finished third nationally in yards per game (120.2) with 15 touchdowns, while also third on the team with 26 receptions on 29 targets. No impact defections from the West Virginia defense to the portal or NFL, but this was also a group that ranked 103rd in EPA per run play defensively. Just one running back, though, was able to score more than 18 fantasy points against the Mountaineers all year, and the Big 12 was loaded with talented backs. Having Hampton in a lineup is not a must.
Fade – TEs. The top three tight ends for UNC will not play as Bryson Nesbit and John Copenhaver have been ruled out with injuries, and Kamari Morales landed at Boston College via the portal. Deems May will start at tight end after playing just 11 offensive snaps in three games, targeted just one all year. May also played defense primarily in high school. Hard pass.
Bargain Bin – WR Gavin Blackwell ($4,500) Cheapest of the three starting receivers for UNC, though Blackwell did lose his starting job earlier in the season after suffering an injury against Minnesota. Blackwell returned in Week 8 vs. Virginia but was not targets in any of the next five games and did not record a catch the remainder of the season.
Pivot Play – QB Conner Harrell ($8,200) Possibly the biggest game of Harrell’s life to date in his audition for the North Carolina starting job in 2024. A former 4-star recruit, Harrell saw brief action on the field this season, completing 4-of-4 passes for 71 yards and a touchdown in a blowout victory over Campbell, while also rushing for a 61-yard score on the ground. Apparently, Harrell hit 21.1 MPH speed on that touchdown, so he has the wheels. West Virginia allowed 24.1 FPPG to quarterbacks this season – 5th most among teams playing in bowl games.
Best of the Rest – WR Nate McCollum ($5,900) If there is a slate-breaking UNC receiver, McCollum is the likeliest candidate, having already posted a 15-catch performance earlier in the season. Slot receivers gave West Virginia all sorts of trouble in the regular season, including 44 fantasy points scored by Oklahoma’s Drake Stoops. McCollum won’t share the slot position either as Kobe Paysour will miss the contest. WR JJ Jones ($5,300) finished tied for third on the team with 60 targets and led all Heels with 42 receptions. He’ll be the team’s top deep threat on Wednesday with no Tez Walker in the lineup, averaging 15.7 YPC with an aDOT of 13.8.
Injury Notes – QB Drake Maye (NFL), TE Bryson Nesbit (injury), TE John Copenhaver (injury), TE Kamari Morales (injury), WR Devontez Walker (NFL), WR Kobe Paysour (injury), RB Elijah Green (transfer)
West Virginia:
Top Play(s) – RB Jaheim White ($5,800) It’ll be interesting to see what CJ Donaldson does after the season, because we know he had offers to hit the transfer portal last year, and now he might lose his starting job. The 192-pound freshmen Jaheim White was on a heater in November with three 100-yard rushing performances over the final four weeks, including 204 yards on 21 carries in a win over Cincinnati. Exceptional matchup against a UNC defense that allowed 19.3 FPPG to RB1s and were 100th in EPA per run play. The Heels will also be without at least two starting defenders.
Fade – RB Jaylen Anderson ($4,000) Anderson will step into the RB2 role on Wednesday with CJ Donaldson out and RB3 Justin Johnson in the portal. West Virginia is 6th nationally in rush play rate, but Anderson hasn’t recorded a carry since Week 9. The duo of Jaheim White and Garrett Greene accounted for nearly 80% of the team’s rushing volume in the last two weeks.
Bargain Bin – TE Kole Taylor ($4,200) The former LSU transfer led the Mountaineers with 33 receptions, four touchdowns, finishing second on the team in targets (55). North Carolina allowed just 6.8 FPPG to opposing tight ends with four different players scoring nine or more fantasy points against the Heels. UNC will be without a starting linebacker and starter at the STAR position, which would normally cover tight ends and slot receivers. Could be good news for Taylor.
Pivot Play – WRs. As we stated above, WVU is 6th in rush play percentage so limit one Mountaineer pass-catcher in your lineups. WR Devin Carter ($5,100) played just two snaps in the finale but averaged seven targets per game in his last six contests after moving to the slot and led the team with 56 targets. If for some reason Carter does not play, freshman WR Rodney Gallagher III ($3,000) instantly becomes an option. WR Hudson Clement ($4,500) had his best performance since Week 2 vs. Baylor with 4-80-0 on four targets. The true freshman has proven to have slate-breaking ability after posting 5-177-3 in his first career game back in Week 2 vs. Duquesne. WR Traylon Ray ($3,000) is a bargain at this price, considering he’s led all WVU receivers in snaps played over the last seven weeks.
Best of the Rest – QB Garrett Greene ($9,000) The highest projected player remaining for us at the CFFSite, on a slate where there are major unknowns in the other games at the quarterback position. Both factors essentially make Greene as close to a must-play as there is on the slate. North Carolina allowed 20 FPPG this season to QB1s and were 64th in pass D success rate. There’s enough talent still on the UNC offense with Hampton and Harrell to where West Virginia won’t completely run away with this matchup, which bodes well for Greene having to play the entire game. Playing Greene and White together in the same lineup is a viable GPP strategy too, with how much the QB1 runs the football.
Injury Notes – RB CJ Donaldson (injury), RB Justin Johnson (transfer)
Louisville vs. USC
Point-Spread: UL -7.5
O/U Total: 58.5
Implied Score: UL 33 – USC 25.5
Weather: 61 degrees / 1% rain / 7 mph winds
Louisville:
Top Play(s) –
theCFFsite’s Heisman Members can view the full article here, and Heisman/All-American Members can access the Bowl Season Player Projections here.
Become an All-American or Heisman Member and get access to our exclusive members-only content and an invite into theCFFsite Discord.