Virginia Tech vs. Tulane
Point-Spread: VT -10.5
O/U Total: 44.5
Implied Score: VT 27.5 – Tul 17
Weather: 53 degrees / 97% rain / 9 mph winds
Virginia Tech:
Top Play(s) – QB Kyron Drones ($7,300) If this were the regular season, we’d have endless quarterback options for this particular four-game slate. Not the case when the eventual No. 1 and No. 2 picks in the NFL Draft opt-out in Caleb Williams and Drake Maye. With that in mind, I’d lean for known commodities at the QB position, and Drones fits the bill at a discounted pricing too. Tulane was excellent against the pass in 2023, allowing just 12 FPPG to QB1s but will be without multiple contributors on the defensive side with opt-outs. Not to mention without their head coach as well with Willie Fritz off to Houston. Drones was exceptional down the stretch, scoring 25 or more fantasy points in each of the last three games.
Fade – TE Daequan Wright ($3,000) While Virginia Tech received great news this offseason with multiple key contributors announcing they’ll return in 2024, Wright decided to hit the portal in search of other opportunities. No depth chart for Virginia Tech as of writing this, so we’ll fade with the uncertainty of if he’s playing or not.
Bargain Bin – n/a Not playing any Virginia Tech players below $5k.
Pivot Play – RB Bhayshul Tuten ($6,300) Tuten was one of the group of Hokies to announce he’ll return in 2024 after rushing for 739 yards and eight touchdowns this season. Tulane’s run defense struggled down the stretch, allowing three of four opponents to rush for over 100 yards on the ground, including 177 to UTSA and 184 to SMU. With Virginia Tech building momentum for 2024 and Tulane’s coaching staff and roster seeing major changes already, I’m surprised this Vegas line isn’t higher. Game script will undoubtedly work in the favor of the Virginia Tech running game.
Best of the Rest – WRs. 66% of the team’s receiving touchdowns went to either Da’Quan Felton or Jaylin Lane in 2023. No Virginia Tech wideout was targeted more than twice in any of the last three games, so one of those two are the priorities if looking to roster a Hokie wideout. Stephen Gosnell didn’t see the target volume but did find the end-zone in each of the last three games to end the regular season. Four of the six highest scoring wide receivers to face Tulane this season played in the slot. Lane played 90.6% of his reps in the slot.
Injury Notes – WR Da’Wain Lofton (Transfer), TE Daequan Wright (Transfer)
Tulane:
Top Play(s) – RB Makhi Hughes ($7,300) By default, Hughes gets the nod as the only known commodity we know for a fact is playing in this game. An incredible season for the true freshman taking over the starting job in Week 2, rushing for 1,290 yards and seven touchdowns, with 19 or more rushing attempts in all but one game since Week 5. Not often you see a team ride their true freshman running back in the fashion that Tulane did this season. Virginia Tech was just averaged against the run in 2023, ranking 62nd in EPA per run play and allowing 18 FPPG to RB1s.
Fade – n/a. The key contributors are priced appropriately to where they can be considered. If being realistic, Hughes is the high-priced player on the slate that can be faded given the circumstances of the roster between the two schools. But Hughes could also get 30 carries.
Bargain Bin – TE Alex Bauman ($3,000) As we’ve seen numerous times already, transfer portal entrants doesn’t automatically mean they’re not playing. Bauman is currently in the portal but remains on the bowl game depth chart. The talented sophomore tight end was third on the team in targets (45) and tied for second in receptions (33) and touchdowns (5).
Pivot Play – QB Kai Horton ($4,500) Horton currently resides in the transfer portal, but sits atop the depth chart and is likely to start vs. the Hokies. He’s absolutely worthy of consideration at this pricing given what he’s already shown this season, throwing for 231 yards and a touchdown against Ole Miss in place of the injured Michael Pratt. The following week, Horton scoring 20 fantasy points in a dominant win over Southern Miss. Reading up on Tulane comments, they’re really hoping to keep Horton for next season, so this is potentially an audition for the new coaching staff or potential suitors in the portal. Virginia Tech’s strength is the pass defense, allowing just 16 FPPG to quarterbacks, so this is not a hammer play at this price.
Best of the Rest – WR Yulkeith Brown ($4,800) The former Texas A&M transfer likely is the team’s WR1 on Saturday as the top three starters for Tulane are either injured or in the portal. None of Lawrence Keys, Jha’Quan Jackson or Chris Brazzell are on the depth chart. Season-high seven targets in the conference title game vs. SMU. WR Bryce Bohanon ($3,300) and former Louisiana transfer Dontae Fleming ($3,500) are the other listed starters at receiver but combined for just 14 catches and zero scores in 2023.
Injury Notes – QB Michael Pratt (NFL), TE Alex Bauman (Transfer), WR Chris Brazzell (Transfer), WR Lawrence Keys (not on depth chart), WR Jha’Quan Jackson (not on depth chart)
North Carolina vs. West Virginia
Point-Spread: WV -6.5
O/U Total: 54.5
Implied Score: WV 30.5 – UNC 24
Weather: 62 degrees / 11% rain / 7 mph winds
North Carolina:
Top Play(s) – RB Omarion Hampton ($8,500) With no Drake Maye, the game plan should be simple for the Heels – hand the ball to your best offensive player in Omarion Hampton. The stud sophomore finished third nationally in yards per game (120.2) with 15 touchdowns, while also third on the team with 26 receptions on 29 targets. No impact defections from the West Virginia defense to the portal or NFL, but this was also a group that ranked 103rd in EPA per run play defensively. Just one running back, though, was able to score more than 18 fantasy points against the Mountaineers all year, and the Big 12 was loaded with talented backs. Having Hampton in a lineup is not a must.
Fade – TEs. The top three tight ends for UNC will not play as Bryson Nesbit and John Copenhaver have been ruled out with injuries, and Kamari Morales landed at Boston College via the portal. Deems May will start at tight end after playing just 11 offensive snaps in three games, targeted just one all year. May also played defense primarily in high school. Hard pass.
Bargain Bin – WR Gavin Blackwell ($4,500) Cheapest of the three starting receivers for UNC, though Blackwell did lose his starting job earlier in the season after suffering an injury against Minnesota. Blackwell returned in Week 8 vs. Virginia but was not targets in any of the next five games and did not record a catch the remainder of the season.
Pivot Play – QB Conner Harrell ($8,200) Possibly the biggest game of Harrell’s life to date in his audition for the North Carolina starting job in 2024. A former 4-star recruit, Harrell saw brief action on the field this season, completing 4-of-4 passes for 71 yards and a touchdown in a blowout victory over Campbell, while also rushing for a 61-yard score on the ground. Apparently, Harrell hit 21.1 MPH speed on that touchdown, so he has the wheels. West Virginia allowed 24.1 FPPG to quarterbacks this season – 5th most among teams playing in bowl games.
Best of the Rest – WR Nate McCollum ($5,900) If there is a slate-breaking UNC receiver, McCollum is the likeliest candidate, having already posted a 15-catch performance earlier in the season. Slot receivers gave West Virginia all sorts of trouble in the regular season, including 44 fantasy points scored by Oklahoma’s Drake Stoops. McCollum won’t share the slot position either as Kobe Paysour will miss the contest. WR JJ Jones ($5,300) finished tied for third on the team with 60 targets and led all Heels with 42 receptions. He’ll be the team’s top deep threat on Wednesday with no Tez Walker in the lineup, averaging 15.7 YPC with an aDOT of 13.8.
Injury Notes – QB Drake Maye (NFL), TE Bryson Nesbit (injury), TE John Copenhaver (injury), TE Kamari Morales (injury), WR Devontez Walker (NFL), WR Kobe Paysour (injury), RB Elijah Green (transfer)
West Virginia:
Top Play(s) – RB Jaheim White ($5,800) It’ll be interesting to see what CJ Donaldson does after the season, because we know he had offers to hit the transfer portal last year, and now he might lose his starting job. The 192-pound freshmen Jaheim White was on a heater in November with three 100-yard rushing performances over the final four weeks, including 204 yards on 21 carries in a win over Cincinnati. Exceptional matchup against a UNC defense that allowed 19.3 FPPG to RB1s and were 100th in EPA per run play. The Heels will also be without at least two starting defenders.
Fade – RB Jaylen Anderson ($4,000) Anderson will step into the RB2 role on Wednesday with CJ Donaldson out and RB3 Justin Johnson in the portal. West Virginia is 6th nationally in rush play rate, but Anderson hasn’t recorded a carry since Week 9. The duo of Jaheim White and Garrett Greene accounted for nearly 80% of the team’s rushing volume in the last two weeks.
Bargain Bin – TE Kole Taylor ($4,200) The former LSU transfer led the Mountaineers with 33 receptions, four touchdowns, finishing second on the team in targets (55). North Carolina allowed just 6.8 FPPG to opposing tight ends with four different players scoring nine or more fantasy points against the Heels. UNC will be without a starting linebacker and starter at the STAR position, which would normally cover tight ends and slot receivers. Could be good news for Taylor.
Pivot Play – WRs. As we stated above, WVU is 6th in rush play percentage so limit one Mountaineer pass-catcher in your lineups. WR Devin Carter ($5,100) played just two snaps in the finale but averaged seven targets per game in his last six contests after moving to the slot and led the team with 56 targets. If for some reason Carter does not play, freshman WR Rodney Gallagher III ($3,000) instantly becomes an option. WR Hudson Clement ($4,500) had his best performance since Week 2 vs. Baylor with 4-80-0 on four targets. The true freshman has proven to have slate-breaking ability after posting 5-177-3 in his first career game back in Week 2 vs. Duquesne. WR Traylon Ray ($3,000) is a bargain at this price, considering he’s led all WVU receivers in snaps played over the last seven weeks.
Best of the Rest – QB Garrett Greene ($9,000) The highest projected player remaining for us at the CFFSite, on a slate where there are major unknowns in the other games at the quarterback position. Both factors essentially make Greene as close to a must-play as there is on the slate. North Carolina allowed 20 FPPG this season to QB1s and were 64th in pass D success rate. There’s enough talent still on the UNC offense with Hampton and Harrell to where West Virginia won’t completely run away with this matchup, which bodes well for Greene having to play the entire game. Playing Greene and White together in the same lineup is a viable GPP strategy too, with how much the QB1 runs the football.
Injury Notes – RB CJ Donaldson (injury), RB Justin Johnson (transfer)
Louisville vs. USC
Point-Spread: UL -7.5
O/U Total: 58.5
Implied Score: UL 33 – USC 25.5
Weather: 61 degrees / 1% rain / 7 mph winds
Louisville:
Top Play(s) – RB Isaac Guerendo ($5,700) As straightforward as it gets with Guerendo being Louisville’s top play. No Jawhar Jordan means the bulk of the carries will be going to the former Wisconsin transfer who was exceptional over the second half of the season, finishing with 649 yards and eight touchdowns, averaging six yards per attempt. And we know the kind of defense Guerendo will be facing, with USC allowing the second most fantasy points to running backs among teams playing in bowl games. Guerendo is close to a lock.
Fade – WR Jimmy Calloway ($5,400) The former Tennessee transfer finished the regular season fourth on the team in targets (33) but just a 54% catch rate and second in drops (3). Louisville’s Sports Illustrated affiliate site posted a projected depth chart which had Calloway as a backup to Ahmari Huggins-Bruce. Either way, it is far too expensive for a player with just 18 catches this season.
Bargain Bin – TEs. Nate Kurisky played well down the stretch with 12 of his 21 targets coming in the final three games. He splits time with former quarterback Joey Gatewood who scored a touchdown in two of the last four weeks. If Louisville pulls out a trick play or two in a meaningless game, Gatewood is the perfect candidate for a pass, run or catch. USC struggled mightily this season (shocker) to defend the tight end position, allowing 10.4 FPPG.
Pivot Play – WR Chris Bell ($5,600) Bell is the only Louisville receiver listed on the prop bet market, meaning it’s a great sign he’s one of the starting wideouts for Wednesday even though there is no official depth chart. In the Week 10 matchup with Virginia Tech where Jamari Thrash did not play, Bell was the most targeted Louisville wideout. I’d imagine Bell will have very little ownership at this pricing.
Best of the Rest – QB Jack Plummer ($8,900) Plummer was very efficient in the one game where he did not have Jamari Thrash earlier in the year, completing 11 of his 12 passes for 141 yards and a touchdown. He should find success against a USC defense that allowed 25 FPPG to quarterbacks despite not having his No. 1 weapon. The Trojans were 99th in pass D success rate and 109th in EPA per pass play defensively. RB Maurice Turner ($4,900) will step in as the RB2 behind Guerendo with Jordan out of the lineup. Louisville split carries the final month and a half, so wouldn’t surprise to see an experienced backup like Turner get 8-10 touches. WR Ahmari Huggins-Bruce ($4,900) has been one of our favorite fade candidates in 2023 but is projected as a starting WR on the outside by a Louisville beat writer. WR Kevin Coleman ($5,100) is far too expensive for a player that scored double-digit fantasy points just twice all year. I doubt we will see a target hog like Jamari Thrash was during the regular season, so don’t feel it necessary to roster any Louisville wideouts.
Injury Notes – WR Jamari Thrash (NFL), RB Jawhar Jordan (NFL)
USC:
Top Play(s) – RB Austin Jones ($5,200) Similar situation to last season for Jones who started in place of another running back who opted out for the NFL. While the numbers weren’t eye-popping, Jones had 22 rushing attempts and four receptions in last year’s bowl game vs. Tulane where he started in place of Travis Dye. Same situation here with Marshawn Lloyd off to the NFL. Louisville ranked 43rd nationally in rush D success rate and only allowed 14 FPPG to RBs, but Jones should get 15 touches at a minimum.
Fade – TE Lake McRee ($3,500) McRee doesn’t have an injury tag on DK as of Tuesday writing this, but it was confirmed by HC Lincoln Riley that the USC TE1 did suffer an injury that will keep him out of this matchup. TE’s normally aren’t a major factor in the Lincoln Riley passing scheme anyways, so don’t bother looking for his backup.
Bargain Bin – RB Quinten Joyner ($3,800) Lloyd departs for the NFL and RB3 Darwin Barlow hit the portal for the second time in his career. That’ll leave backup duties to 4-star freshman Quinten Joyner who averaged nearly eight yards a carry on 16 attempts this season. He has the size profile to be USC’s next feature back whenever the time comes at 205 pounds already. Another freshman in WR Ja’Kobi Lane ($3,000) was spotlighted by the USC beat writer as someone who will have an impact on Wednesday as well.
Pivot Play – QB Miller Moss ($7,900) Another player with an audition to secure a starting job in 2024 – at USC or elsewhere. There are enough weapons around Moss still to succeed despite several departures, but it’s the defense across from him being the biggest reason why I’d limit my exposure. The Cardinals allowed just 15 FPPG to opposing quarterbacks, with just three QBs scoring 20 fantasy points or more against them. All three were dual threats. That is not Moss.
Best of the Rest – WRs. No official depth chart for the Trojans, but assuming the top foursome will be Tahj Washington, freshman phenom Zachariah Branch, Kyron Hudson, and Dorian Singer, with the aforementioned Lane and Duce Robinson mixed in. No WR for the Trojans accounted for more than 18% target share on the season so don’t force any USC wideout in your lineups. The UL secondary was borderline elite this season, ranking No. 4 nationally in pass D success rate and 14th in EPA per pass play.
Injury Notes – RB Marshawn Lloyd (NFL), WR Brendan Rice (NFL), RB Raleek Brown (transfer), QB Caleb Williams (NFL), WR Michael Jackson III (transfer), WR Mario Williams (transfer), RB Darwin Barlow (transfer)
Texas A&M vs. Oklahoma State
Point-Spread: OSU -2.5
O/U Total: 54.5
Implied Score: OSU 28.5 – A&M 26
Weather: Dome
Texas A&M:
Top Play(s) – WR Jahdae Walker ($5,000) A&M will have just three scholarship WRs available on Wednesday now that it was announced late Tuesday that Noah Thomas would miss the contest due to injury. Walker will step into the WR1 role after a strong November with 80 or more receiving yards in three of the last four games. WR Moose Muhammad ($4,200) was demoted this season but saw his most extended action of the season in the finale vs. LSU. Would prefer Walker > Muhammad, but I like having one of the two in my lineups with how few available bodies A&M has at receiver. Can’t imagine they’ll be rotating much.
Fade – TE Max Wright ($3,700) Wright would be the conventional answer to start with Jake Johnson in the portal, but while he doesn’t have an injury tag on DK, it sounds like he may be injured or unavailable for Wednesday. 247 A&M writers made multiple mentions that either Jaden Platt or Theo Melin Ohrstrom will see extended playing time.
Bargain Bin – WR Micah Tease ($3,300) The third of the three scholarship receivers available, Tease did not record a single reception in 2023, but the true freshman is a 4-star prospect that held offers from several big-time programs like USC, Alabama, Notre Dame, and others. 174 vacated targets with the departures/injuries, and A&M didn’t throw the football any less with Jaylen Henderson in at QB.
Pivot Play – QB Jaylen Henderson ($7,200) Extremely impressed by a former Fresno State backup quarterback finding success in the SEC. Henderson averaged 24 FPPG in three starts, along with 12 or more carries in each game. Oklahoma State was dreadful against the pass this season, allowing nearly 24 FPPG to opposing QB1s and 98th in pass D success rate. The biggest question is how the opt-outs impact this A&M offense as the Aggies are expected to have just 55 scholarship players available.
Best of the Rest – RBs Three-man rotation at running back between Rueben Owens, Le’Veon Moss, and Amari Daniels. Recency bias would suggest that it would be Moss getting the starting nod as he led the Aggies in carries in the finale vs. A&M, but his running style can lead to injuries as we’ve seen on multiple occasions. OSU was 10th in the B12 in yards allowed per game on the ground (174) and gave up over 17 FPPG to opposing RB1s. The issue here is that A&M doesn’t have a solidified RB1.
Injury Notes – WR Evan Stewart (transfer), WR Ainias Smith (injury), TE Jake Johnson (transfer), WR Noah Thomas (injury)
Ohio State:
Top Play(s) – RB Ollie Gordon ($9,500) Endless RB options and his pricing on this slate mean Ollie Gordon isn’t necessarily a must-play, but the lack of reliable QB options could make a four running back lineup a distinct possibility. A&M was a dominant run defense in the regular season, allowing just 11 FPPG to RB1s, but will be without four regular contributors along the defense line who entered the portal. Gordon gets top billing from us, but we also have three other RBs with 20-point projections at significantly lower salaries.
Fade – Backup WR. Beyond the top three (more on that below), the next closest active receiver on the Oklahoma State roster was targeted just 17 times this season. The most targets in a game for an Oklahoma State wideout not named Rashod Owens, Brennan Presley, or Leon Johnson III since Week 6 is just three.
Bargain Bin – TE Josiah Johnson ($3,900) Fifth on the team in routes run and sixth in targets (29). Texas A&M allowed just 3.8 FPPG to TE1s.
Pivot Play – QB Alan Bowman ($6,300) Kudos to Alan Bowman who went from a QB5 at Michigan to a 3,000-yard passer in his first year starting with the Cowboys. I’m more interested in the Oklahoma State receivers than the QB, though, as Bowman is a non-runner facing a team that allowed just 15 FPPG to quarterbacks in 2023. He is cheap and fair to question A&M motivation levels with a new coaching staff coming to town.
Best of the Rest – WRs. We’ve covered this situation ad nauseum during the regular season. Leon Johnson III, Brennan Presley, and Rashod Owens dominated the target share and snaps counts at receiver after Jaden Bray got injured back in Week 8. With Bray off to West Virginia via transfer, that situation remains the same heading into Wednesday. A&M allowed 18 FPPG to WR1s this season, with five of the six highest scoring receivers to face the Aggies being outside receivers. Bodes well for someone like Rashod Owens who is coming off his best performance of the year with 80 yards and two scores vs. Texas in the B12 title game. Two Oklahoma State receivers in the same lineup is feasible because of how infrequently they rotate at the position.
Injury Notes – WR Jaden Bray (transfer), WR Blaine Green (transfer), RB Jaden Nixon (transfer)
