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Wisconsin vs. LSU
Point-Spread: LSU -9.5
O/U Total: 55.5
Implied Score: LSU 32.5 –Wisc 23
Weather: 66 degrees / 0% rain / 7 mph winds
Wisconsin:
Top Play(s) – WR Will Pauling ($4,600) Slot receivers in Phil Longo offenses are undefeated. While Pauling wasn’t Josh Downs, he needs just two targets in this matchup to hit 100 for the season, leading the Badgers with 65 receptions and four TDs. The game script is perfect for Pauling here as Wisconsin will likely be in a trailing position. Pauling is preferred on DK over FD because of the scoring settings in full-point PPR.
Fade – WR CJ Williams ($3,100) The former USC transfer and 5-star recruit is listed as a backup on the depth chart and saw his snap counts diminish in the month of November. Was on the field for all of two plays in the finale vs. Minnesota.
Bargain Bin – WR Vinny Anthony II ($3,000) On the other end of the spectrum, Anthony is now listed ahead of Williams on the depth chart and led all Wisconsin receivers in snaps played in each of the final two games of the regular season. Posted 47 yards on five targets in Week 11 vs. Northwestern. Former Oklahoma State transfer WR Bryson Green ($3,500) did not have the impact we expected, finishing third on the team with 26 receptions on 55 targets, but is a listed starter. Just have to ensure he’s suited up as he did not partake in the season finale.
Pivot Play – QB Tanner Mordecai ($7,000) This slate is filled with QB options so probably don’t need to force the issue with Mordecai, but the LSU secondary was woeful during the regular season, ranking 105th in pass D success rate, 122nd in EPA per pass play defensively and allowed 23 FPPG to opposing QB1s. Wisconsin will need to throw most likely with no Braelon Allen, Chez Mellusi and as a near 10-point underdog.
Best of the Rest – RBs. It is an OR situation, but Jackson Acker is listed first above Cade Yacamelli. Going back to Week 10 as evidence, Acker and Yacamelli filled in for the injured Allen. While the volume disparity was minimal with Acker out-touching Yacamelli 11-10, the snap count differential was large. Acker was on the field almost double the number of snaps. I’m staying away entirely personally, but Acker is the choice between the two. LSU did allow 18.4 FPPG to RB1s during the regular season.
Injury Notes – RB Braelon Allen (NFL), RB Chez Mellusi (injury), WR Chimere Dike (transfer), WR Skyler Bell (transfer)
LSU:
Top Play(s) – WR Kyren Lacy ($5,300) See below. Lacy was the WR3 for the Tigers this season, and likely enters 2024 as the team’s WR1 as he’s already confirmed to be returning to LSU. Two 100-yard receiving performances this season with three receiving touchdowns in the last two weeks. Wisconsin allowed 17 FPPG to WR1s this season.
Fade – WR Malik Nabers ($8,600) Nabers needs 22 yards to break the LSU’s all-time school record for receiving yards. LSU’s beat writer stated on the 247 boards that he doesn’t expect Nabers to play much beyond getting the record. Is it possible? Sure. But at this price, I think Nabers is an obvious fade. In that message board post from the LSU writer, he also stated he does not believe WR Brian Thomas Jr. ($7,000) will play much either.
Bargain Bin – Younger WRs. Lacy will be the WR1 (assuming what we stated above comes to fruition) but expect plenty of reps for LSU’s younger core of wideouts. WR Shelton Sampson Jr. ($3,000) is a 4-star freshman that has reportedly stood out in bowl practices and the expected backup to Nabers, if and when he softly opts out of this matchup. WR Chris Hilton ($3,600) is fifth among LSU receivers in routes run and is a very skilled former 4-star that’s been overshadowed by more experienced players.
Pivot Play – QB Garrett Nussmeier ($7,700) Last time Nussmeier played against a Big Ten team was in last year’s bowl game, throwing for 155 yards and two touchdowns – all of which came in the second half – in the blowout of Purdue. Wisconsin won’t be the dead body that the Boilermakers were last year, but Nuss is more than talented enough to shred this Wisconsin secondary. Wisconsin allowed 16.5 FPPG to opposing QB1s during the regular season and were 23rd in EPA per pass play defensively.
Best of the Rest – RBs. Should be the regulars for LSU at running back, sans John Emery. LSU had the most experienced offensive line in the country this season, and all five will play on Monday so LSU should be able to run the ball effectively. Logan Diggs is the starter, but we’ll see a mix of Josh Williams, Noah Cain and hopefully Kaleb Jackson to where it might make sense to spend down on an LSU running back. Disappointing season compared to expectations for TE Mason Taylor ($4,000) who caught just one touchdown as a sophomore but was third on the team in targets and routes run. Ball should be spread around more if Nabers/Thomas soft out in the first half.
Injury Notes – QB Jayden Daniels (NFL), RB Armoni Goodwin (transfer), RB John Emery (injury)
Liberty vs. Oregon
Point-Spread: Oreg -16.5
O/U Total: 67.5
Implied Score: Oreg 42 – Lib 25.5
Weather: Dome
Liberty:
Top Play(s) –
theCFFsite’s Heisman Members can view the full article here, and Heisman/All-American Members can access the Bowl Season Player Projections here.
Become an All-American or Heisman Member and get access to our exclusive members-only content and an invite into theCFFsite Discord.