Wisconsin vs. LSU
Point-Spread: LSU -9.5
O/U Total: 55.5
Implied Score: LSU 32.5 –Wisc 23
Weather: 66 degrees / 0% rain / 7 mph winds
Wisconsin:
Top Play(s) – WR Will Pauling ($4,600) Slot receivers in Phil Longo offenses are undefeated. While Pauling wasn’t Josh Downs, he needs just two targets in this matchup to hit 100 for the season, leading the Badgers with 65 receptions and four TDs. The game script is perfect for Pauling here as Wisconsin will likely be in a trailing position. Pauling is preferred on DK over FD because of the scoring settings in full-point PPR.
Fade – WR CJ Williams ($3,100) The former USC transfer and 5-star recruit is listed as a backup on the depth chart and saw his snap counts diminish in the month of November. Was on the field for all of two plays in the finale vs. Minnesota.
Bargain Bin – WR Vinny Anthony II ($3,000) On the other end of the spectrum, Anthony is now listed ahead of Williams on the depth chart and led all Wisconsin receivers in snaps played in each of the final two games of the regular season. Posted 47 yards on five targets in Week 11 vs. Northwestern. Former Oklahoma State transfer WR Bryson Green ($3,500) did not have the impact we expected, finishing third on the team with 26 receptions on 55 targets, but is a listed starter. Just have to ensure he’s suited up as he did not partake in the season finale.
Pivot Play – QB Tanner Mordecai ($7,000) This slate is filled with QB options so probably don’t need to force the issue with Mordecai, but the LSU secondary was woeful during the regular season, ranking 105th in pass D success rate, 122nd in EPA per pass play defensively and allowed 23 FPPG to opposing QB1s. Wisconsin will need to throw most likely with no Braelon Allen, Chez Mellusi and as a near 10-point underdog.
Best of the Rest – RBs. It is an OR situation, but Jackson Acker is listed first above Cade Yacamelli. Going back to Week 10 as evidence, Acker and Yacamelli filled in for the injured Allen. While the volume disparity was minimal with Acker out-touching Yacamelli 11-10, the snap count differential was large. Acker was on the field almost double the number of snaps. I’m staying away entirely personally, but Acker is the choice between the two. LSU did allow 18.4 FPPG to RB1s during the regular season.
Injury Notes – RB Braelon Allen (NFL), RB Chez Mellusi (injury), WR Chimere Dike (transfer), WR Skyler Bell (transfer)
LSU:
Top Play(s) – WR Kyren Lacy ($5,300) See below. Lacy was the WR3 for the Tigers this season, and likely enters 2024 as the team’s WR1 as he’s already confirmed to be returning to LSU. Two 100-yard receiving performances this season with three receiving touchdowns in the last two weeks. Wisconsin allowed 17 FPPG to WR1s this season.
Fade – WR Malik Nabers ($8,600) Nabers needs 22 yards to break the LSU’s all-time school record for receiving yards. LSU’s beat writer stated on the 247 boards that he doesn’t expect Nabers to play much beyond getting the record. Is it possible? Sure. But at this price, I think Nabers is an obvious fade. In that message board post from the LSU writer, he also stated he does not believe WR Brian Thomas Jr. ($7,000) will play much either.
Bargain Bin – Younger WRs. Lacy will be the WR1 (assuming what we stated above comes to fruition) but expect plenty of reps for LSU’s younger core of wideouts. WR Shelton Sampson Jr. ($3,000) is a 4-star freshman that has reportedly stood out in bowl practices and the expected backup to Nabers, if and when he softly opts out of this matchup. WR Chris Hilton ($3,600) is fifth among LSU receivers in routes run and is a very skilled former 4-star that’s been overshadowed by more experienced players.
Pivot Play – QB Garrett Nussmeier ($7,700) Last time Nussmeier played against a Big Ten team was in last year’s bowl game, throwing for 155 yards and two touchdowns – all of which came in the second half – in the blowout of Purdue. Wisconsin won’t be the dead body that the Boilermakers were last year, but Nuss is more than talented enough to shred this Wisconsin secondary. Wisconsin allowed 16.5 FPPG to opposing QB1s during the regular season and were 23rd in EPA per pass play defensively.
Best of the Rest – RBs. Should be the regulars for LSU at running back, sans John Emery. LSU had the most experienced offensive line in the country this season, and all five will play on Monday so LSU should be able to run the ball effectively. Logan Diggs is the starter, but we’ll see a mix of Josh Williams, Noah Cain and hopefully Kaleb Jackson to where it might make sense to spend down on an LSU running back. Disappointing season compared to expectations for TE Mason Taylor ($4,000) who caught just one touchdown as a sophomore but was third on the team in targets and routes run. Ball should be spread around more if Nabers/Thomas soft out in the first half.
Injury Notes – QB Jayden Daniels (NFL), RB Armoni Goodwin (transfer), RB John Emery (injury)
Liberty vs. Oregon
Point-Spread: Oreg -16.5
O/U Total: 67.5
Implied Score: Oreg 42 – Lib 25.5
Weather: Dome
Liberty:
Top Play(s) – QB Kaidon Salter ($8,200) The 25.5-point implied team total helps give Salter a strong projection of 23.1 which puts him in play at this price. While Oregon only allowed 15 FPPG to opposing QB1s this season, they’ll be without multiple defenders on that side of the ball. The Ducks struggled to contain another dual threat in Texas Tech QB Tyler Shough earlier in the year, giving up over 100 rushing yards on 23 attempts.
Fade – WR Treon Sibley ($4,500) You’re either spending up to CJ Daniels or going cheap among Liberty pass-catchers. Sibley falls in the middle and has not been productive enough to warrant consideration. Sibley was second on the team this season in targets (31) and receptions (22) but played just five offensive snaps in the regular season finale and is listed as a backup on the depth chart.
Bargain Bin – WR Aaron Bedgood ($3,700) My favorite cheap option for the Flames as Bedgood offers versatility as both a pass-catcher and runner as he’s listed at two different spots on the depth chart. Third on the team in targets (27) with nearly 500 yards receiving on the season.
Pivot Play – WR CJ Daniels ($5,600) If Salter finds success through the air, it’ll likely be in the direction of his WR1 in Daniels who accounted for 1/3 of the team’s receiving touchdowns and 27% of the team’s target share. Strong correlation play pairing with Salter and Oregon players.
Best of the Rest – RBs. Can’t envision Liberty finding a ton of success on the ground against this Oregon defense that allowed the 7th fewest fantasy points in the country to opposing running backs. Quinton Cooley was a beast in his debut season with the Flames with 1,300 rushing yards and 16 touchdowns, six of which came in his last two games alone. Just two running backs scored more than 20 fantasy points all year against the Ducks. WR Noah Frith ($3,500) is second on the team in routes run and finished with a season’s best 7 targets in the C-USA title game vs. New Mexico State. Liberty utilizes two tight ends in TE Austin Henderson ($3,800) and TE Bentley Hanshaw ($3,900). The former has averaged around 25% more offensive snaps in the last four weeks, so would lean Henderson if wanting to roster one of the two.
Injury Notes – n/a
Oregon:
Top Play(s) – QB Bo Nix ($9,000) All indications are that Nix is going to play and going to play the entirety of the game. Statistically, the Liberty defense has been excellent this season, but playing in C-USA will inflate those numbers. Unlikely that the Flames can hang with this Oregon offense at mostly full strength. Nix is the top play on the slate.
Fade – n/a. Implied team total over 40 and a double-digit favorite. Everyone is in play.
Bargain Bin – WR Gary Bryant Jr. ($3,500) or WR Jurrion Dickey ($3,000) Bryant, the former USC transfer, leads all Oregon receivers in routes run, and everyone gets a boost in value with Troy Franklin opting-out for the NFL, along with a few depth pieces entering the portal. Multiple beat writers for the Ducks also predicted that Dickey, the 4-star freshman who has reportedly impressed in bowl practices, will catch a touchdown on Monday. Either player is an option.
Pivot Play – RB Mar’Keise Irving ($6,900) Similar to Nix, all indications are that Irving is going to play the full game. In my non-expert opinion, being a running back and quarterback in these scenarios are much different, and Irving has already declared for the NFL Draft. If this gets out of hand, Irving may soft out and not reach value. RB Jordan James ($5,500) is one of the top plays on the slate as Oregon’s future RB1 in 2024. Expect a heavy workload for the sophomore against a Liberty defense that was 80th in rush D success rate.
Best of the Rest – WR Tez Johnson ($6,600) Arguably the best WR option from a price and projection standpoint. 100 or more receiving yards in three of the last five games, and Liberty will be without its best cornerback. WR Traeshon Holden ($4,300) finished sixth on the team in routes run with 32 receptions on 46 targets. Everyone moves up a peg with Troy Franklin opting out. With Nix playing, multiple Oregon receivers in a lineup is a viable option. Three tight ends this season scored 15 or more fantasy points against this Flames defense and TE Terrance Ferguson ($4,100) will be the best talented Liberty has faced all season at the position.
Injury Notes – WR Troy Franklin (NFL), WR Josh Delgado (transfer), WR Kris Hutson (transfer), QB Ty Thompson (transfer)
Iowa vs. Tennessee
Point-Spread: Tenn -6.5
O/U Total: 35.5
Implied Score: Tenn 21 – Iowa 14.5
Weather: 66 degrees / 0% rain / 10 mph winds
Iowa:
Top Play(s) – WR Kaleb Brown ($3,900) The former Ohio State transfer was Iowa’s best offensive player in the month of November with 18 receptions on 28 targets, including multiple contests with at least nine targets. Similar to what we said with Pauling above, Brown is preferred on DK with full-point PPR scoring settings.
Fade – QB Deacon Hill ($6,500) Hitting the betting window to place a wager on under Deacon Hill passing yards for one last time this season. CFB player prop Hall of Famer.
Bargain Bin – TE Addison Ostrenga ($4,400) Four tight ends scored 10 or more fantasy points against Tennessee this season. Ostrenga has filled in admirably for the injured Luke Lachey and Erick All, with 26 receptions over the last five weeks.
Pivot Play – WR Nico Ragaini ($3,700) If you’re brave enough to roster an Iowa pass-catcher, Brown and Ostrenga are the priorities. And most DFS players recognize that. But Ragaini does lead the team by a wide margin in routes run and targets (67). His eight drops and 43% catch rate is why Ragaini is not more of a priority.
Best of the Rest – RBs If you want to use the prop market as a barometer, Leshon Williams is the Iowa running back that is listed, not Kaleb Johnson. Williams also sits atop the bowl game depth chart so would prioritize him over Johnson if selecting one of the two. Not a spot I’m all that interested in, though, as Tennessee ranked 12th nationally in rush D success rate and gave up 16 FPPG to opposing RB1s.
Injury Notes – TE Luke Lachey (injury), TE Erick All (injury), QB Cade McNamara (injury), WR Diante Vines (transfer)
Tennessee:
Top Play(s) – RB Dylan Sampson ($4,700) Jaylen Wright and Jabari Small are both off to the NFL meaning the talented redshirt freshman should get the lion’s share of carries on Monday. Matchup isn’t great against an Iowa defense that allowed just 10.9 FPPG to opposing RB1s and ranked 18th in success rate, but Sampson proved to be a dynamic playmaker both as a runner and pass-catcher when he got the chances behind Wright/Small. Seems like just yesterday Sampson scored four touchdowns in the opener against Virginia.
Fade – QB Nico Iamaleava ($6,500) The 5-star freshman is going to be an absolute stud. He displayed that in the Tennessee spring game throwing a 30-yard rope down the sideline that drew ooos and ahhhs from the crowd. Not the game we’re considering him against this defense that allowed 11.1 FPPG to QB1s in the regular season, in a matchup where the Hawkeyes will try and dominate time of possession.
Bargain Bin – WR Chas Nimrod ($3,500) Nimrod is the projected starter by Tennessee sites, as he’s mostly done the last few games since Dont’e Thornton was lost for the season to injury. 11 of his 18 receptions have come in the last three games alone. The confusing part to this non-Tennessee fan is the snap counts with fellow freshman WR Kaleb Webb ($3,800) who has the same number of targets (26) and has out-snapped Nimrod in two of the last three games. Won’t likely matter vs. Iowa with a freshman quarterback, but you can make the argument for either player.
Pivot Play – WR Squirrel White ($5,700) Team leader in receptions (64) and 25% of the team’s target share. We’ll see who has the best rapport with the 5-star freshman, but White was easily the team’s best receiver over the second half of the season with double-digit targets in three of the final six games. Six receivers scored 17 or more fantasy points against Iowa this season, four of which were slot receivers like White. His speed will be a factor that Iowa doesn’t see much in the B1G.
Best of the Rest – WR Ramel Keyton ($5,000) His drops are infuriating, but Keyton does lead the team in touchdowns (6) and routes run in 2023. Would have eight touchdown receptions if not for the drops. TE McCallan Castles ($4,300) and TE Jacob Warren ($3,700) were tied for second on the team with four receiving touchdowns. Iowa allowed four tight ends to score 10 or more fantasy points against them.
Injury Notes – RB Bru McCoy (injury), WR Dont’e Thornton (injury), RB Jabari Small (NFL), Joe Milton (NFL), RB Jaylen Wright (NFL)
Alabama vs. Michigan
Point-Spread: UM -1.5
O/U Total: 44.5
Implied Score: UM 23 – Ala 21.5
Weather: 62 degrees / 2% rain / 8 mph winds
Alabama:
Top Play(s) – QB Jalen Milroe ($8,500) If Alabama wins, Milroe will be the difference as these dual-threat quarterbacks are rare in the Big Ten. Michigan did have an advantage in practices with backup Alex Orji, a Milroe-like athlete, replicating the Alabama QB in practices. And Jim Harbaugh’s brother coaches a pretty dynamic playmaker over there with the Baltimore Ravens, so I’m sure the game plan will be sound in attempting to limit Milroe via the air and on the ground. Michigan allowed the fewest fantasy points in the entire country to opposing QBs.
Fade – RB Roydell Williams ($5,000) Jase McClellan is fully healthy with no restrictions, so barring word we get pregame that those reports are not true, the run game will be centered around Milroe and McClellan. Michigan allowed the second fewest fantasy points in the country to RBs and 10th in rush D success rate. Not the scenario where you want a backup RB in your lineups.
Bargain Bin – TE Amari NiBlack ($3,600) Playing time has diminished for the freshman tight end, giving way to Robbie Ouzts and CJ Dippre, but NiBlack is the best pass-catcher of the bunch, ranked third on the team in all receiving categories, and second in touchdowns (4). Michigan allowed just 4.7 FPPG to opposing TE1s this season.
Pivot Play – RB Jase McClellan ($5,900) Michigan remains the betting favorite, but it is tough to go against the Tide when its gets to this point in the season. For as good as Michigan has been against the run this season, things seemingly change once they play the SEC. Look at Penn State on Saturday against Quinshon Judkins, and the Nittany Lions statistically ranked higher than the Wolverines in run defense. McClellan is healthy by all accounts.
Best of the Rest – WRs. Michigan’s secondary is elite, and they match up very well with the Alabama receivers, so I’d go very light there. Top heavy target share with Isaiah Bond and Jermaine Burton at 43% with over 50% of the team’s receiving touchdowns. The issue is that they’ll be covered by Will Johnson and Mike Sainristil, two of the very best defensive backs in the nation. Who is the outlier? If forced to choose, WR3 Malik Benson ($3,400) led all Bama receivers not named Burton/Bond in snaps played during the month of November. His speed is a game-changer.
Injury Notes – WR JaCorey Brooks (transfer), QB Tyler Buchner (transfer)
Michigan:
Top Play(s) – TE Colston Loveland ($4,800) Coming into the year, the biggest hindrance on this Michigan offense was its wide receivers. And that still holds true to today, sans Roman Wilson. While the numbers aren’t in the same stratosphere, the comps to Brock Bowers for Loveland are not outlandish, with some Bama defenders mentioning the same. Four different tight ends scored 10 or more fantasy points this season against the Tide, including 19 from Brock Bowers, and the price is very reasonable for Michigan’s second-best pass catcher.
Fade – QB J.J. McCarthy ($7,800) McCarthy will be 100% healthy for the Rose Bowl, something you couldn’t say in the month of November as he was dealing with an ankle injury. A 15-point projection at this price with multiple options at the QB position, though, makes McCarthy an easy fade.
Bargain Bin – TE AJ Barner ($3,400) If you watched bowl season on ESPN, I’m sure you’ve heard Trevor Matich call out Barner as a potential under the radar x-factor. I tend to agree with this notion given Michigan does not have the receivers to threaten Alabama defensive backs, and I expect the Wolverines will be needing to throw more than normal against this Tide defense. Barner is cheap enough that if he busts, it won’t sink your lineup. Fifth on the team in targets (29) and receptions (22).
Pivot Play – RB Donovan Edwards ($5,100) With the injuries to Michigan’s offensive line + Alabama’s front, I don’t think Michigan will have a ton of success running the football. That holds true with Edwards, who has largely been a disappointment in 2023. I expect 1-2 trick plays on Monday, and Edwards is typically involved either as a thrower or receiver. Edwards will have very little ownership.
Best of the Rest – RB Blake Corum ($8,200) For as good as Corum is, and has been during his Michigan career, he’s probably closer to a fade at this pricing with this matchup. Bama allowed just 12.5 FPPG to RB1s during the regular season and 25th in rush D success rate. Not to mention the Michigan offensive line is already without their All-American guard in Zak Zinter, and All Big Ten center Drake Nugent did suffer an injury in bowl practices. WR Roman Wilson ($6,000) and WR Cornelius Johnson ($4,200) combine for nearly 70% of the team’s target share among Michigan wide receivers with 12 of the team’s 21 touchdowns. Major risk rostering any Michigan wideout outside of that duo.
Injury Notes – RB CJ Stokes (transfer)
Texas vs. Washington
Point-Spread: Tex -4.5
O/U Total: 62.5
Implied Score: Tex 33.5 – UW 29
Weather: Dome
Texas:
Top Play(s) – QB Quinn Ewers ($8,000) Third favorite QB on the slate behind Nix and Penix, and a possible game stack option with the Washington QB as the second-highest game total on the slate. At least 280 passing yards in three of the last four games since coming back from injury, and easily his best performance of the year last time out with 400+ and four TDs vs. Oklahoma State. Washington is average on the back end, allowing 19.3 FPPG to QB1s and 65th in pass D success rate.
Fade – WR Xavier Worthy ($6,200) Not a complete fade, but Worthy stated last week that he’s still not 100% healthy after the high ankle injury suffered against Oklahoma State in the B12 title game. There are a surplus of WRs on this slate to where we don’t need to risk playing Worthy. At the very least, limit exposure here.
Bargain Bin – TE Ja’Tavion Sanders ($4,700) Sanders was a bust relative to expectations, finishing third on the team with 39 receptions and just two touchdowns. A lingering ankle injury played a major part in that, though, and we saw a healthy Sanders in the conference title game with 105 yards and a TD on nine targets. Add on three weeks to heal and rehab, and Sanders should be 100% for Monday.
Pivot Play – RB Jaydon Blue ($5,000) over RB Cedric Baxter ($5,600) Baxter will be the RB1, but this game sets up nicely for Blue in what might be a pass-heavy game script. Blue averaged 19 FPPG over the last two weeks. Nine receptions on 10 targets in the last three games. One of the two has a good shot at being in the optimal lineup facing a horrendous Washington rush defense that allowed 16 FPPG to RB1s and were 126th in rush D success rate.
Best of the Rest – WR Adonai Mitchell ($6,200) If Worthy is limited, Mitchell will function as the WR1, coming off one of his better performances of the season with 6-109-1 on eight targets vs. Oklahoma State. WR1s averaged over 18 FPPG against the Washington secondary. WR Jordan Whittington ($4,200) has a shot at relevancy if Worthy is banged up or this game plays out as expected where volume in the passing game is so high. Washington allowed the third most passing attempts in the country (41) during the regular season.
Injury Notes – QB Maalik Murphy (transfer), RB Jonathon Brooks (injury), WR Isaiah Neyor (transfer)
Washington:
Top Play(s) – WR Rome Odunze ($7,400) Washington is a bad matchup for Texas in that the Huskies can spread out the Longhorn secondary with their playmakers on the outside, in particular Odunze who hit 100 yards receiving in every game that he played with a healthy Jalen McMillan on the opposite side. Washington likely will struggle running against this Texas front, so plenty of target volume will be available for the Husky receivers. Washington threw the ball 54 times in last year’s Alamo Bowl matchup. If we see a replication of that game plan, stacking both Odunze and WR Jalen McMillan ($6,500) together in a lineup (with or without Penix) is viable.
Fade – Backup RBs. Backup running backs behind Dillon Johnson have combined for just 22 carries over the last five games. Will Nixon and Tybo Rogers can be removed entirely from the player pool.
Bargain Bin – TE Jack Westover ($3,800) Four tight ends have scored double-digit fantasy points against the Longhorns this season, and we’ve already talked about the inevitable pass-heavy game script from the Huskies. 14 receptions on 16 targets for Westover in the last four games. WR Germie Bernard ($3,300) deserves some consideration as a rotational option, but his snap counts have dipped significantly with the top three WR starters healthy. Caught a TD vs. Oregon in the Pac-12 title game in a matchup that was competitive to the end.
Pivot Play – WR Ja’Lynn Polk ($6,700) Washington WR stacks will be popular, but most are going to attempt to have McMillan and Odunze paired together. Polk has been very quiet the last three games, including being shut out on 10 targets against Oregon State and Washington State. At this price, he’ll have very little ownership. GPP play as we’ve seen the upside of Polk who had 100+ receiving yards in six of the first eight games.
Best of the Rest – RB Dillon Johnson ($7,000) Didn’t include Johnson as a fade because he quite literally receives ALL the rushing volume in the Washington backfield, but this is a bad matchup. Texas is 6th in rush D success rate, 10th in EPA per run play defensively and allowed just 10.5 FPPG to opposing RB1s. Johnson and Corum are closer to fades than plays. QB Michael Penix ($8,600) has failed to score 30 fantasy points in the last five games against mediocre competition, but now has his full complement of weapons at his disposal. Gets dinged because he’s a non-runner but is the second best QB option behind Nix if you can make it fit.
Injury Notes – n/a
