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Virginia Tech vs. Vanderbilt
Point-Spread: VT -13.5
O/U Total: 47.5
Implied Score: VT 30.5 – Vandy 17
Weather: 66 degrees / 0% rain / 7 mph winds
Virginia Tech:
Top Play(s) – QB Kyron Drones ($8,300) Arguably the best QB option on the slate given projection and pricing. Offensively, the Hokies are No. 1 in the country in returning production, led by Drones who was exceptional down the stretch with three straight 30-point fantasy performances. Two things need to happen for Drones to be a top 10 fantasy quarterback in 2024. (1) better performances against top-tier defenses. Drones struggled mightily against Florida State, Louisville, and NC State. (2) More red-zone opportunities, as RB1 Bhayshul Tuten held a 39-26 advantage in that area.
Fade – RB Malachi Thomas ($5,200) VT should dominate Vandy given the disparity in returning experience on both sides, so realistically the RB2 can have some fantasy relevance here. But Tuten really dominated the backfield last season with 35% of the rushing volume and stays in on passing downs with 41 targets. We’re surprised Thomas didn’t transfer after last season.
Bargain Bin – TE Nick Gallo ($3,000) The lone departure for the Hokies was starting tight end Dae’Quan Wright who landed at Ole Miss, though veteran Nick Gallo has plenty of experience with 55 career receptions. TE1 for Virginia Tech has had 49 targets in each of the last two seasons.
Pivot Play – Stack Drones and RB Bhayshul Tuten ($6,500) Not usually a popular strategic choice to stack a QB and RB in the same lineup, but last year showed it was possible with the Virginia Tech backfield. Assuming this year plays out similarly, the duo accounted for 68% of the team’s carries and 75% of Virginia Tech’s rushing touchdowns.
Best of the Rest – WRs. Really good group between Jaylin Lane, Da’Quan Felton and a now healthy Ali Jennings. If selecting someone, just limit it to one option. Virginia Tech ranked 104th in pass rate last season which will not equate to fantasy success for multiple options.
Injury Notes – n/a
Vanderbilt:
Top Play(s) – TE Cole Spence ($4,200) Per the Vanderbilt beat writer, “Spence is the offense’s best player right now.” We thought that’d be Eli Stowers, who comes in from New Mexico State along with the new offensive coordinator, but we’ll look to Spence as the one difference maker on the offense.
Fade – RB Sedrick Alexander ($5,300) Vanderbilt struggled running the football in practices against its own defense. Not imagine that against a formidable opponent. The Dores ranked 124th nationally in yards per game on the ground (95.3 YPG) and 110th in rush success rate in 2023. The one positive note about Alexander is that new OC Timothy Beck said if the sophomore is healthy, he’ll get 50% of the work.
Bargain Bin – WR Richie Hoskins ($3,100) Hoskins is a former walk-on that will start in the slot, and he’s cheap. A few interesting notes about this slot receiver position from the team beat writer. (1) Hoskins was the best receiver on the Vandy offense in the team’s first scrimmage. (2) Backup Landon Wells “doesn’t project to play much.”. So, will Hoskins be playing all game? Interesting at that price.
Pivot Play – QB Diego Pavia ($7,300) Pavia was one of the best CFF quarterbacks in the country last season, averaging over 25 FPPG, and finishing as QB8 in total points scored. We know he’s got a firm grasp of the system having played the last two years with Beck – it’s a matter of how his play will translate going from the worst conference in college football to the best. Reports coming out of camp weren’t exactly glowing about Pavia or the entire Vandy offense.
Best of the Rest – WR Junior Sherrill ($5,800) Sherrill likely leads Vandy in receptions by end of year, but what does that mean from a fantasy standpoint? Well, looking at Tim Beck again and his previous time at New Mexico State, no Aggie receiver had more than 60 targets in the last two years. So, at absolute max, Sherrill maybe gets five targets Saturday? Probably not worth the price of admission. We’ll likely fade the entire Vandy offense this week.
Injury Notes – n/a
Penn State vs. West Virginia
Point-Spread: PSU -8.5
O/U Total: 51.5
Implied Score: PSU 30 – WVU 21.5
Weather: 87 degrees / 73% rain / 8 mph winds
Penn State:
Top Play(s) – RB Nick Singleton ($6,300) or RB Kaytron Allen ($5,900) Same song and dance this year with the Penn State backfield. The difference this year being the Nittany Lions have a new offensive coordinator in Andy Kotelnicki who comes over from Kansas. As we saw with the Jayhawks, expect Kotelnicki to lean on the ground game with returning co-starters Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen, who combined for 1,600 yards and 14 touchdowns in 2023. Just one rushing attempt separated the two, but Singleton’s improved utilization in the passing game was the difference, as he finished with an impressive 26 receptions on 30 targets. The expectation remains that this will be close to a 50-50 split again in 2024, though Kotelnicki’s 11th ranked rush rate last season was significantly higher than Penn State. More volume = more fantasy production?
Fade – WR Julian Fleming ($6,000) There was some hype earlier in fall camp for the former 5-star and Ohio State transfer, but updated depth chart predictions have him sharing a starting spot with WR Omari Evans ($4,100). Sounds like he’ll just be a rotational piece at receiver, which means he’s unlikely to hit value at $6k.
Bargain Bin –