Virginia Tech vs. Vanderbilt
Point-Spread: VT -13.5
O/U Total: 47.5
Implied Score: VT 30.5 – Vandy 17
Weather: 66 degrees / 0% rain / 7 mph winds
Virginia Tech:
Top Play(s) – QB Kyron Drones ($8,300) Arguably the best QB option on the slate given projection and pricing. Offensively, the Hokies are No. 1 in the country in returning production, led by Drones who was exceptional down the stretch with three straight 30-point fantasy performances. Two things need to happen for Drones to be a top 10 fantasy quarterback in 2024. (1) better performances against top-tier defenses. Drones struggled mightily against Florida State, Louisville, and NC State. (2) More red-zone opportunities, as RB1 Bhayshul Tuten held a 39-26 advantage in that area.
Fade – RB Malachi Thomas ($5,200) VT should dominate Vandy given the disparity in returning experience on both sides, so realistically the RB2 can have some fantasy relevance here. But Tuten really dominated the backfield last season with 35% of the rushing volume and stays in on passing downs with 41 targets. We’re surprised Thomas didn’t transfer after last season.
Bargain Bin – TE Nick Gallo ($3,000) The lone departure for the Hokies was starting tight end Dae’Quan Wright who landed at Ole Miss, though veteran Nick Gallo has plenty of experience with 55 career receptions. TE1 for Virginia Tech has had 49 targets in each of the last two seasons.
Pivot Play – Stack Drones and RB Bhayshul Tuten ($6,500) Not usually a popular strategic choice to stack a QB and RB in the same lineup, but last year showed it was possible with the Virginia Tech backfield. Assuming this year plays out similarly, the duo accounted for 68% of the team’s carries and 75% of Virginia Tech’s rushing touchdowns.
Best of the Rest – WRs. Really good group between Jaylin Lane, Da’Quan Felton and a now healthy Ali Jennings. If selecting someone, just limit it to one option. Virginia Tech ranked 104th in pass rate last season which will not equate to fantasy success for multiple options.
Injury Notes – n/a
Vanderbilt:
Top Play(s) – TE Cole Spence ($4,200) Per the Vanderbilt beat writer, “Spence is the offense’s best player right now.” We thought that’d be Eli Stowers, who comes in from New Mexico State along with the new offensive coordinator, but we’ll look to Spence as the one difference maker on the offense.
Fade – RB Sedrick Alexander ($5,300) Vanderbilt struggled running the football in practices against its own defense. Not imagine that against a formidable opponent. The Dores ranked 124th nationally in yards per game on the ground (95.3 YPG) and 110th in rush success rate in 2023. The one positive note about Alexander is that new OC Timothy Beck said if the sophomore is healthy, he’ll get 50% of the work.
Bargain Bin – WR Richie Hoskins ($3,100) Hoskins is a former walk-on that will start in the slot, and he’s cheap. A few interesting notes about this slot receiver position from the team beat writer. (1) Hoskins was the best receiver on the Vandy offense in the team’s first scrimmage. (2) Backup Landon Wells “doesn’t project to play much.”. So, will Hoskins be playing all game? Interesting at that price.
Pivot Play – QB Diego Pavia ($7,300) Pavia was one of the best CFF quarterbacks in the country last season, averaging over 25 FPPG, and finishing as QB8 in total points scored. We know he’s got a firm grasp of the system having played the last two years with Beck – it’s a matter of how his play will translate going from the worst conference in college football to the best. Reports coming out of camp weren’t exactly glowing about Pavia or the entire Vandy offense.
Best of the Rest – WR Junior Sherrill ($5,800) Sherrill likely leads Vandy in receptions by end of year, but what does that mean from a fantasy standpoint? Well, looking at Tim Beck again and his previous time at New Mexico State, no Aggie receiver had more than 60 targets in the last two years. So, at absolute max, Sherrill maybe gets five targets Saturday? Probably not worth the price of admission. We’ll likely fade the entire Vandy offense this week.
Injury Notes – n/a
Penn State vs. West Virginia
Point-Spread: PSU -8.5
O/U Total: 51.5
Implied Score: PSU 30 – WVU 21.5
Weather: 87 degrees / 73% rain / 8 mph winds
Penn State:
Top Play(s) – RB Nick Singleton ($6,300) or RB Kaytron Allen ($5,900) Same song and dance this year with the Penn State backfield. The difference this year being the Nittany Lions have a new offensive coordinator in Andy Kotelnicki who comes over from Kansas. As we saw with the Jayhawks, expect Kotelnicki to lean on the ground game with returning co-starters Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen, who combined for 1,600 yards and 14 touchdowns in 2023. Just one rushing attempt separated the two, but Singleton’s improved utilization in the passing game was the difference, as he finished with an impressive 26 receptions on 30 targets. The expectation remains that this will be close to a 50-50 split again in 2024, though Kotelnicki’s 11th ranked rush rate last season was significantly higher than Penn State. More volume = more fantasy production?
Fade – WR Julian Fleming ($6,000) There was some hype earlier in fall camp for the former 5-star and Ohio State transfer, but updated depth chart predictions have him sharing a starting spot with WR Omari Evans ($4,100). Sounds like he’ll just be a rotational piece at receiver, which means he’s unlikely to hit value at $6k.
Bargain Bin – TE Tyler Warren ($4,500) Senior tight end Tyler Warren could be primed for a monster year, finishing as TE21 with seven receiving touchdowns a year ago, all while splitting time with Theo Johnson who is now in the NFL. If looking for a deep, deep sleeper, TE Andrew Rappleyea ($3,000) could fill that TE2 spot Warren played in last year, with Khalil Dinkins banged up.
Pivot Play – WR Drew Allar ($8,700) The positives outweighed the negatives with QB Drew Allar in his first year as a starter, as he finished the year with a 25-to-2 touchdown to interception ratio, finishing as QB37 in CFF, but he collapsed when the moment was too big. Kotelnicki has not been shy about incorporating his quarterbacks into the running game, and Allar displayed surprising athleticism with 210 rushing yards and four TDs.
Best of the Rest – WR Harrison Wallace ($5,500) Getting a slight discount here on Wallace who is widely expected to be Penn State’s WR1 in 2024. One PSU writer went as far as to say Wallace will have the most productive season for a Nittany Lion receiver since Jahan Dotson. WR Liam Clifford ($4,400) would join the starting lineup should Kadan Saunders not play on Saturday. Would limit to just one Penn State receiver in a lineup. Rarely were two receivers’ fantasy relevant back at Kansas when Kotelnicki was the OC.
Injury Notes – WR Kaden Saunders ($5,100) Questionable but was at practice this week.
West Virginia:
Top Play(s) – QB Garrett Greene ($8,100) Handing the keys to Garrett Greene full time and letting him scramble around was a winning formula, as he finished as QB19 in college fantasy with 3,100 yards of total offense and 29 touchdowns in just 11 games played. For Greene, there is room to improve, especially as a passer, as he finished last in the Big 12 in completion percentage. Playing Greene solo is probably the optimal strategy as his leading receiver last year averaged just 8.5 FPPG and West Virginia was 9th in the country in rush rate. If they get a lead, they’re keeping the ball on the ground.
Fade – WR Jaden Bray ($5,400) I’m a Bray fan since his days at Oklahoma State, and he’s a game-breaker when on the field, but indications are that he’s a backup currently on the depth chart. I’d look to the other WVU wideouts if trying to pair with Greene.
Bargain Bin – WR DayDay Farmer ($3,000) Extreme longshot here because he might be fifth or sixth on the depth chart, but the true freshman is apparently wowing coaches in fall practices and Neal Brown has already confirmed he’ll play on Saturday. This is truly only an option if you have the perfect lineup set and are down to your last $3k.
Pivot Play – RB Jaheim White > CJ Donaldson ($4,800) Don’t fall for the bait here and looking to save salary. White has been the starter through much of camp, and the advanced stats here jump off the charts for the sophomore back. White was the second-highest rated running back in the Big 12 according to Pro Football Focus, averaging 7.7 yards per carry and a 55% breakaway rate. There will be weeks against lesser opponents when both are productive but give me the explosive option against a front like Penn State.
Best of the Rest – TE Kole Taylor ($4,400) Tight end Kole Taylor was the de facto WR1 for West Virginia, leading the team in targets (60), receptions (35) and touchdowns (4), while lining up in the slot 38% of the time. Limited interest in the WVU wide receiver room as the Mountaineers threw the ball just 37% of the time last year. WR Traylon Ray ($3,800), Hudson Clement ($4,400) and Preston Fox ($4,700) will likely run out with the 1s. Max one Mountaineer WR in a lineup.
Injury Notes – n/a
Clemson vs. Georgia
Point-Spread: UGA -12
O/U Total: 48
Implied Score: UGA 30 –Clem 18
Weather: Dome
Clemson:
Top Play(s) – RB Phil Mafah ($5,600) The attainable price keeps Mafah in play this week, but unlikely to have a ton of exposure against this Georgia front. What we love about Mafah potentially this week, but absolutely for this season is the guaranteed volume he’s about to receive with Will Shipley no longer around. 220+ carries is a distinct possibility for Mafah with the backup running backs having just 20 carries of collegiate experience.
Fade – WR Adam Randall ($3,400) It’s only a matter of time before one of the incoming 5-stars replaces the former 5-star in the starting lineup. If not immediately, it will be soon after. At best, Randall is the fourth option in the passing game behind Williams, Brown and Briningstool, and a chance he doesn’t even start over WR Bryant Wesco Jr. ($4,600). Of course, we won’t know for sure because Dabo won’t release a depth chart, or go into the transfer portal, or stop talking. Actually, I take that back, he did stop talking to live callers on his radio show!
Bargain Bin – TE Jake Briningstool ($4,400) One prediction theCFFSite nailed last year was Jake Briningstool becoming Clemson’s top pass-catcher, as he finished at TE9 with a team-high 74 targets. Leading the Tigers again in that category is a realistic possibility.
Pivot Play – QB Cade Klubnik ($7,900) Year 2 jump for Klubnik, right? That’s the optimistic view headed into his second season starting under offensive coordinator Garrett Riley, and we’ve seen it happen before – ie Max Duggan in 2022. Game script should work in Klubnik’s favor as a double-digit underdog and he’s utilized plenty on the ground with 125 rushing attempts a year ago.
Best of the Rest – WR Antonio Williams ($5,700) or WR Tyler Brown ($4,300) In limited action, Williams was extremely effective again with 21 receptions on 28 targets, splitting his time in the slot and on the boundary. Expect Williams to start outside in 2024 with the emergence of sophomore Tyler Brown, who was equally as effective inside with a 77% catch rate. While having both on the field is a huge boost to the Clemson passing attack, neither player presents a ton of fantasy value with their low aDOT (average depth of target) being within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage.
Injury Notes – “We’re all day to day, week to week. Just hoping we’ll get another day tomorrow.” – Dabo Swinney. Eye roll.
Georgia:
Top Play(s) – RB Branson Robinson ($4,800) I have the most faith that Carson Beck will hit value, but from a pricing and situational perspective, Robinson is probably the best bang for your buck on the team this week. With Etienne and Rod Robinson expected out, this should be Robinson’s backfield with a walk-on and a true freshman backing him up. Robinson has failed to live up to his 5-star billing to this point in his career but had a resurgent fall camp.
Fade – Transfers. Georgia boosted its depth this offseason with a host of transfers, including Trevor Etienne, Colbie Young, Ben Yurosek, Michael Jackson III and London Humphreys. Aside from maybe Young, none of that group are expected to start on Saturday. Siding with the experienced UGA players that have been on the roster feels like the better bet.
Bargain Bin – RB Nate Frazier ($3,000) Could be Cash Jones as the immediate backup to Robinson in the backfield, but eventually talent wins out. And Frazier, a 4-star, has been getting major hype the last several weeks of fall ball.
Pivot Play – QB Carson Beck ($9,100) Expect UGA to lean on the passing game a bit more this week with the backfield concerns. Not to mention the strength of the Clemson defense will be the front seven. Beck only gets dinged here because he’s a non-factor in the running game.
Best of the Rest – WR Dominic Lovett ($6,400) was second on the team in receptions (53) and targets (70) last season, and his fantasy production was boosted in the games where Brock Bowers was out due to injury. On that note, we do not expect TE Oscar Delp ($4,200) to have a Bowers-like season but will start ahead of Ben Yurosek. WR Dillon Bell ($5,800) is solidified in his starting role, and one team beat writer expected him to lead the Dawgs in receptions this week. WR Arian Smith ($4,900) is good for a 50-yard bomb from time to time.
Injury Notes – RB Roderick Robinson II ($5,700) and RB Trevor Etienne ($7,200) Neither is expected to play on Saturday due to injury and suspension, respectively.
Kent State vs. Pittsburgh
Point-Spread: Pitt -24
O/U Total: 55.5
Implied Score: Pitt 39.5 – Kent St 15
Weather: 88 degrees / 67% rain / 10 mph winds
Kent State:
Top Play(s) – WR Chrishon McCray ($6,100) The biggest news of the offseason for Kent State was receiver Chrishon McCray being healthy and very active in the spring. The 5-foot-10 sophomore was a revelation once Kent State hit conference play, as he was targeted 10 or more times in four straight games before suffering a season-ending ankle injury. McCray caught a touchdown in the team’s spring game and is, by far, the team’s best offensive playmaker.
Fade – QB Devin Kargman ($5,800) Shocked Kent State even went with Kargman as the starter over Tommy Ulatowski who gave the offense a spark in the second half of last season. Kent State was just 122nd nationally in passing a year ago and were 48th in rush rate. The Golden Flashes would prefer to run the football if they can.
Bargain Bin – WR Deshawn Martin ($3,000) A major surprise on the depth chart as Kent State will start a true freshman receiver for the second straight year. Maybe lightning strikes twice after the success Kent State had with McCray last season?
Pivot Play – RB Ky Thomas ($5,000) We mentioned above how Kent State preferred to run the football last season. They have a former P4 transfer in Ky Thomas as the RB1 who spent time at both Minnesota and Kansas previously. In addition, top backup Gavin Garcia was announced out for the season this week, so Kent State may lean on Thomas even more in 2024. Pitt is 98th in returning defensive production so they may have some road bumps early on defensively.
Best of the Rest – WR Luke Floriea ($5,000) Too expensive for a WR2. But he’s a starter and game script probably dictates throwing the ball.
Injury Notes – n/a
Pitt:
Top Play(s) – RB Desmond Reid ($4,600) Reid will split in the backfield still with RB Rodney Hammond ($4,900) but it was announced on Thursday that Reid will get the start in Week 1. Notable considering Reid already has familiarity with the new offensive scheme as he comes over from Western Carolina along with new OC Kade Bell. Reid is effective in the passing game and rushed for at least 800 yards in each of the last two seasons. There is video out on Twitter of Reid breaking through for a 90-yard TD run in a fall camp scrimmage.
Fade – n/a. Strange to say for a team that is installing a new offensive scheme and 80th in returning production, but DK decided to price everyone down for some reason. Pat Narduzzi made a change at offensive coordinator this offseason, hiring 31-year-old Kade Bell, who spent the last three seasons at Western Carolina. In 2023, Bell’s offense finished fourth in the FCS in scoring, averaging 37.5 points per game, and they averaged just over 500 yards per game. The most prominent difference between Bell’s offense and what we’ve witnessed from previous Pitt teams is the increased pass rates, as Western Carolina threw the ball around 53% of the time in the past three years.
Bargain Bin – WR Raphael Williams ($3,800) Williams is one of two former Western Carolina wide receivers to follow Bell to Pittsburgh. A listed starter, Williams should know the offensive playbook and posted over 1,600 yards and 15 touchdowns between 2021-22 with WCU.
Pivot Play – WR Kenny Johnson ($3,900) Johnson was a starter by the end of the year, finishing with 15 receptions on 29 attempts. The 6-foot-1 sophomore was a spring standout with six receptions for 77 yards and a score in the team’s spring game and nabbed a starting spot over some veterans on the roster.
Best of the Rest – QB Eli Holstein ($5,400) A 20-point projection at $5.4k is not the worst DFS investment. And the former 4-star recruit and Alabama transfer can run if needed, rushing for 500+ yards in each of his final two seasons in high school. As we noted above, this offense will move at a faster pace as long as the Nard Dog doesn’t get in the way. TE Gavin Bartholomew ($4,200) has been mentioned by multiple folks who follow the program as a sleeper this season. WR Konata Mumpfield ($4,800) is the veteran of the group, leading the team last season with 44 receptions. I’d lean one Pitt pass-catcher at max for our lineups.
Injury Notes – n/a
Connecticut vs. Maryland
Point-Spread: MD -20.5
O/U Total: 45.5
Implied Score: MD 33 – UConn 12.5
Weather: 87 degrees / 15% rain / 6 mph winds
Connecticut:
No option above 14 fantasy points in our projection and a muddy depth chart means a full-team fade for me. For reference, here’s our UConn writeup for what to expect this year:
The Huskies averaged just 4.2 yards per carry as a team (4.73 YPC in 2022) and fell to 119th in Line Yards created. There was turnover on the staff this offseason as OC Nick Charlton left the team at the onset of spring ball to take a job with the Cleveland Browns. Mora Jr. elevated OL coach Gordon Sammis to offensive coordinator, and he will be calling plays for the first time in his career. As for what to expect offensively, we’re anticipating that a former OL coach prefers to run the ball, which has been the identity of the Huskies since Mora Jr. arrived in Storrs. UConn has deployed a full-fledged committee in the backfield the last two seasons with no running back topping 140 carries in that span. Mora Jr. called the running back room one of the deepest areas on the team with returnees RB Victor Rosa ($4,500) and RB Cam Edwards ($5,400), along with Charlotte transfer RB Durell Robinson ($3,000) and “jitterbug” Jayden Brown ($3,000), who transferred in from Gardner-Webb. The passing game components were also bolstered by transfers in the offseason, but they will likely have little fantasy impact with Connecticut’s emphasis on running the ball. Wisconsin transfer QB Nick Evers ($4,800) won the job coming out of camp, and receivers Jasiah Gathings ($4,700) and Skyler Bell ($3,800) were added to the mix. Evers and Bell should be familiar having with played with the Badgers last year.
Maryland:
Top Play(s) – RB Roman Hemby ($6,000) Hemby may be a bit chalk for my liking to have a ton of exposure for Saturday, but he’s the one proven entity on this Maryland roster coming into the year. Hemby’s ability in the passing game is among the best in college football, with 71 receptions and four touchdowns in the last two seasons. Maryland also brought in former Iowa OC Brian Ferentz to help “invigorate” the team’s rushing attack.
Fade – QBs. On a 12-game slate with three contenders still in the mix to start and / or play, we’ll pass. Billy Edwards Jr. has been trending late in fall camp as the leader, but there’s still a chance the staff rolls with NC State transfer MJ Morris or redshirt freshman Cameron Edge. If we do get word Edwards is the surefire starter prior to Saturday, he does possess dual-threat ability and was utilized as a goal-line option last season as the backup.
Bargain Bin – TE Preston Howard ($3,700) Maryland has had a top 25 fantasy tight end in each of the last three seasons, so sophomore Preston Howard is a potential breakout candidate in 2024 should he land the starting job. TE1 has averaged over five targets per game in that three-year span.
Pivot Play – RB Nolan Ray ($4,700) While Hemby is the 1A, there might be a 1B in the Maryland backfield. Ray, the top-rated running back out of the state of Michigan in 2023, ran for 96 yards on just nine carries in the spring game, with Mike Locksley calling him a “big-play threat” and a “guy that people take notice of this year.”
Best of the Rest – WRs MD has an established top two at WR in Kaden Prather ($4,900) and Tai Felton ($4,800) who combined for 11 touchdowns last year. WR3 is likely to be Octavian Smith Jr. ($4,300). How the rotation shakes out after that is unknown. Maryland hasn’t had a WR with over 20% target share since 2021 and have spread it around.
Injury Notes – n/a
South Dakota State vs. Oklahoma State
Point-Spread: Ok St -9.5
O/U Total: 54.5
Implied Score: Ok St 32 –SDSU 22.5
Weather: 82 degrees / 12% rain / 14 mph winds
South Dakota State:
Four options to choose from on the SDSU side. QB Mark Gronowski ($6,100) is a dual-threat machine at straight from the cornfields of South Dakota. And some bias from the writer of this article as he’s from my hometown of Naperville, IL so he’s gotta be talented. 17 rushing TDs over the last two seasons alone – though they do have an OC change as last year’s coordinator moved on to Northwestern. RB1 Amar Johnson ($4,500) will be the primary ball-carrier after rushing for 801 yards and four TDs on just 128 attempts last season. SDSU is a run-first offense, keeping the ball on the ground 60% of the time over the last three years. That lessens our interest in the wide receivers, though WR Griffin Wilde ($4,800) and WR Grahm Goering ($3,900) look to be the top options in 2024. Last season’s top two combined for 50% of the target share.
Oklahoma State:
Top Play(s) – RB Ollie Gordon ($9,100) If this spread were greater, I’d say avoid Gordon after his injury scare a few weeks ago, and the DUI charge he obtained earlier in the offseason. But Vegas is expecting a competitive matchup and Oklahoma State has College Football Playoff aspirations. The Cowboys cannot afford to drop this game. With five offensive linemen returning, there’s no reason to expect a drop-off from Ollie Gordon, who finished as RB1 in CFF last season, despite not starting the first three weeks. His stretch from Week’s 7-13 are almost unheard of in college fantasy, finishing as the No. 1 running back four times in that span with five 40+ point performances.
Fade – Backups. Oklahoma State returns 90% of their offensive production from last year. Gordon dominated the backfield market share, and the targets were funneled to the top three starting receivers. With everyone back, it is tough to see that changing much here.
Bargain Bin – N/A. Not playing anyone under $4.8k.
Pivot Play – WR De’Zhaun Stribling ($4,800) Stribling missed all but four games last season, but was highly productive when on the field, averaging seven targets per contest. This is a centralized target share where the top three accounted for over 60%.
Best of the Rest – QB Alan Bowman ($7,000) Kudos to Mike Gundy for transforming a former fifth-string quarterback at Michigan into an adequate starter in the Big 12, as Alan Bowman threw for 3,400 yards and 15 touchdowns. There is limited fantasy upside in Bowman as a non-runner, but he offers enough to give him spot-start consideration, as he scored 20 or more fantasy points in six of nine starts. Also back are Bowman’s two leading target-getters, WR Brennan Presley ($6,800) and WR Rashod Owens ($5,200), who combined for 164 receptions and 11 of the team’s 18 receiving touchdowns. As a slot receiver, Presley has broken the mold the last two years, as Gundy’s WR1 has historically played on the boundary. Presley’s WR21 finish in 2023 may be the ceiling, though, if he continues to average just 9.8 YPC
Injury Notes – n/a
Colorado State vs. Texas
Point-Spread: Tex -32.5
O/U Total: 60.5
Implied Score: Tex 46.5 – CSU 14
Weather: 93 degrees / 15% rain / 8 mph winds
Colorado State:
Top Play(s) – WR Tory Horton ($6,900) In college fantasy, we subscribe to the notion, “Start your Studs, always.” Not the case in DFS, but Horton is still the best play for CSU as one of the best receivers in the entire country. He’s in search of his third straight 1,000-yard season.
Fade – QB Brayden Fowler-Nicolosi ($6,500) Won’t be starting BFN in our lineups Saturday, but interested to see how he does in his second season as the QB1 after throwing for 3,500 yards and 22 touchdowns as a freshman. Bad matchup here, though, and he’s a non-factor as a runner. I don’t think he’s an option for a game stack in this scenario.
Bargain Bin – TE Vince Brown II ($3,300) Our prediction for Colorado State this season is that they do not have a Dallin Folker at tight end, who led all at the position in targets a year ago. IF they do have another Folker 2.0 on the roster, Brown would be the guy as projected starter Jaxxon Warren was announced out for the season.
Pivot Play – WR Dylan Goffney ($5,800) Assuming our prediction holds true that there isn’t a Dallin Holker on the roster, that’s 100+ vacated targets to get spread around to the receivers not named Tory Horton. Goffney, the team’s slot receiver who will work the middle of the field, is the projected WR2 and likeliest candidate to get those targets. He’s a deep sleeper for 2024 in our eyes.
Best of the Rest – RB Justin Marshall ($4,800) Redshirt freshman running back Justin Marshall burst onto the scene the final three weeks with 319 rushing yards on 58 attempts, but the amount of depth returning is a concern, as Avery Morrow and Kobe Johnson are both back. We would recommend resisting the temptation to overdraft Marshall in a pass-happy system. WR Armani Winfield ($4,400) is a Baylor transfer that arrived over the summer and immediately won the starting job over Donovan Ollie. Name to remember down the road.
Injury Notes – TE Jaxxon Warren ($3,000) Out for the season due to injury.
Texas:
Top Play(s) – RB Jaydon Blue ($6,200) The offseason injury to Cedric Baxter was a complete game-changer for all college fantasy formats. Blue has the whole position to himself now, particularly with the limited depth Texas now has at the position because of injury. Steve Sarkisian loves feeding his RB1, averaging around 209 carries and 41% volume share per season. FWIW – sources to the Texas beat writer stated to “not expect Blue to get overworked on Saturday,”
Fade – TE Amari NiBlack ($4,400) You’d think there would have been more buzz in the offseason for NiBlack who transfers over from Alabama after catching four touchdown passes as a freshman. Those thinking he automatically replaces the production of Ja’Tavion Sanders, especially in the immediate, might be overly optimistic. I think the wide receivers will garner more targets this year than the TE position.
Bargain Bin – DeAndre Moore Jr. ($3,200) The depth chart fluctuates every day based on the reporting from the Texas beat writers. The most recent report from Texas 247 is that the three receivers that will be on the field to start against CSU will be Isaiah Bond, Johntay Cook and Moore. We love that price tag if Moore is indeed running with the 1s.
Pivot Play – QB Quinn Ewers ($8,900) Arch Manning truthers can take off the tin foil hats. This game will serve as prep for next week’s battle with Michigan and Ewers will need all the reps he can get. Can also see this game serving as a confidence booster he’ll need in preparation to face a Top 2 defense in the country. The thought process here is also that Texas will limit touches to its running backs with the depleted depth after the Baxter injury.
Best of the Rest – WR Isaiah Bond ($6,500) Bond is the likely choice to finish as Texas’ WR1 by season’s end, filling the Xavier Worthy role from last year. Just once in the last eight seasons has Sark’s WR1 failed to hit 100 targets. RB Tre Wisner ($4,500) will get a healthy dosage of carries if the report above is true that Blue could see limited touches. Behind him on the depth chart are a true freshman, a converted receiver and a Kansas transfer that just arrived this week. WRs Johntay Cook ($4,800), Matthew Golden ($4,500) and Oregon State transfer WR Silas Bolden ($6,200) are all expected to see extended playing time.
Injury Notes – n/a
Miami vs. Florida
Point-Spread: Mia -2.5
O/U Total: 54.5
Implied Score: Mia 28.5 – UF 26
Weather: 93 degrees / 35% rain / 10 mph winds
Miami:
Top Play(s) – WR Xavier Restrepo ($6,900) There are no shortage of weapons for Ward at receiver with Xavier Restrepo returning in the slot after posting an 85- catch season, finishing as WR27. His rapport was strong with Ward in the spring and Restrepo should be a top 10 fantasy receiver by season’s end. Dawson’s WR1 has now hit 100+ targets in five of the last seven seasons.
Fade – WR Isaiah Horton ($5,200) Doesn’t sound like Horton has had a bad offseason, far from it, but he’s a distant WR4 option behind the top three. To steep a price in that scenario.
Bargain Bin – TE Elijah Arroyo ($3,100) Talent has never been the issue with Arroyo – health has been his bugaboo. And there are multiple articles on the 247 Miami home page singling out Arroyo as a possible difference maker in the Miami offense. Cheap enough for a dart throw.
Pivot Play – WR Sam Brown ($5,900) > WR Jacolby George ($6,000) Still technically up in the air between who is the WR2 behind Restrepo. Most will go with George as he was on the team a year ago, and plenty productive at that. But our impression is that the Houston transfer will be the secondary option in the offense and was also very productive with the Cougars in 2023 with 62 receptions. We’ll favor Brown over George as it currently stands.
Best of the Rest – QB Cam Ward ($9,000) Washington State transfer Cam Ward looks to be a seamless fit for OC Shannon Dawson’s system, as he reportedly dazzled all spring, and that was evident in the spring game, completing 17-of-23 passes for 260 yards with a pair of touchdowns. From a skillset standpoint, Ward is comparable to Clayton Tune, whom Dawson coached back at Houston and finished as QB5 in 2022. RB Damien Martinez ($6,900) will provide a solid floor at running back. The issue is backup RB Mark Fletcher ($5,800) is now fully recovered from his offseason injury and will dip into Martinez’ workload. We’re not expecting Martinez to be the workhorse as initially thought earlier in the offseason.
Injury Notes – n/a
Florida:
Top Play(s) – WR Eugene Wilson III ($7,100) Ricky Pearsall graduated, but the WR unit is in great shape with Eugene Wilson III, who was exceptional as a freshman with 61 receptions and a team-high six touchdowns. Zero drops and an 86% catch rate are just absurd numbers for any receiver, let alone a freshman. Let’s also go back to the spring where Billy Napier stated they’re going to do everything in their power to get Wilson the ball this season. He’s going to be fed targets.
Fade – WR Elijhah Badger ($5,600) Badger’s prop number has been hammered hard this week, shading towards the under, as fall camp reports suggest he’s still getting acclimated to his new team / offensive system. Right now, he should be considered WR4 behind WR Kahleil Jackson ($4,000) if the reporting is accurate. Badger will be valuable to this offense in time, but perhaps not Week 1.
Bargain Bin – WR Chimere Dike ($3,300) It was a very quiet offseason for the Wisconsin transfer who was barely mentioned, while most of the talk was around Wilson and Badger. No news could be good news? Dike also has a rapport with his former Badger QB Graham Mertz. $3.3k is cheap for a solidified starting receiver with a ton of experience.
Pivot Play – QB Graham Mertz ($7,500) Can we give Billy Napier some credit in unearthing Graham Mertz as a viable starting quarterback in the SEC? The former Wisconsin transfer easily had the best season of his collegiate career, completing 73% of his passes for 2,900 yards and 20 touchdowns with just three interceptions in 11 games. In the second half of the season, Mertz was a realistic fantasy option in deeper formats, scoring 20 or more fantasy points in his final seven starts. Florida may throw more with an unsettled backfield.
Best of the Rest – RBs. Treyaun Webb ($4,500) Notice our current projections have Webb still ahead of Montrell Johnson for the time being. Call us skeptical Johnson will be full-go just coming back from injury. RB Jadan Baugh ($3,000) could also see time on Saturday as he’s the future of the position for the Gators. Already college-ready at 237 pounds, Baugh ran for 77 yards in the team’s spring game. TE Arlis Boardingham ($5,200) is one of the better tight ends in the SEC with 26 receptions on 36 targets in his freshman year. This usually isn’t a high-volume scheme for tight ends, and that price is too rich.
Injury Notes – RB Montrell Johnson ($5,700) Those who run theCFFSite mostly subscribe to the same notion that we’ll wait a week to roster a player coming back from injury. HC Billy Napier stated Johnson should be full-go for Saturday, and maybe he’s being truthful, but Johnson missed a good bit of fall camp due to injury. This is also generally a system under Napier that will spread the ball around to 2-3 different options. I think there are better upside plays elsewhere at RB.
Akron vs. Ohio State
Point-Spread: OSU -48.5
O/U Total: 58.5
Implied Score: OSU 53.5 – Akr 5
Weather: 84 degrees / 24% rain / 8 mph winds
Akron:
Normally I’d gloss over a team with an implied team total under a touchdown, but we should cover our ass on two players. WR Alex Adams ($4,500) and WR Adrian Norton ($4,200) are expected to be the featured receivers for the Zips in 2024. Adams has the name recognition as a former LSU transfer that had 855 receiving yards back in 2022. He’s fully healthy now. As for Norton, he was the star of the offseason and could challenge for the WR1 spot. He scored two touchdowns in Akron’s final team scrimmage in fall ball.
Ohio State:
Top Play(s) – QB Will Howard ($8,500) Howard is the best play simply because we know the ball will be in his hands every play – something that can’t be said for the other Ohio State options. OSU is going to cruise through the first half of the schedule this season with arguably the best roster in the country. Good for Buckeye fans, bad for DFS as we predict the touches to be spread around at every position. Howard is a perfect fit for Chip Kelly’s offensive system as a dual threat. No need to stack with an OSU receiver either.
Fade – RBs. Best running back duo in the country, but it’ll be an even 50-50 split between Quinshon Judkins and TreVeyon Henderson probably until we hit the month of November…or someone gets injured. We highly doubt either player hits more than 12 carries in this lopsided matchup.
Bargain Bin – n/a. Even RB3 James Peoples is expensive. Ohio State will put up seven touchdowns Saturday, probably by seven different players.
Pivot Play – Fade the Phenom. Jeremiah Smith will be as good, if not better than Marvin Harrison Jr. That doesn’t feel like an outlandish prediction with all the praise the 5-star has received in the offseason. He’s at least the WR3, and potentially the WR2 in this offense along with Carnell Tate. What has that position done historically under Chip Kelly? About 9 FPPG and has not finished inside the Top 100 in college fantasy at the respective position. Smith might find the end-zone Saturday but won’t have more than 3-4 receptions.
Best of the Rest – WR Emeka Egbuka ($7,000) Probably the safest play, outside of Howard, on the Ohio State side. Cemented as the WR1 and fully healthy after missing most of last year, with something to prove as he looks to increase his NFL Draft stock. Chip Kelly WR1s have averaged fewer than 7 targets per game though over the last decade, so not a must to have an OSU wideout in your lineup. WR Jayden Ballard ($4,800) is WR4 or WR5, but was named a team captain and always seems to find his way onto the stat sheet in blowout situations.
Injury Notes –
Miami (Ohio) vs. Northwestern
Point-Spread: NW -3.5
O/U Total: 39.5
Implied Score: NW 21.5 – MOH 18
Weather: 77 degrees / 0% rain / 7 mph winds
Miami (OH):
Top Play(s) – WR Javon Tracy ($4,300) Miami (Ohio) is becoming WRU among G5 teams with the level of talent it produces, from Jack Sorenson to Mac Hippenhammer and most recently Gage Larvadain. The latter has since transferred to South Carolina, but history tells us someone will be relevant here. Eight of the last 10 WR1s for the RedHawks played on the boundary, so early money should be on sophomore Javon Tracy. FWIW – this is a prediction, not a certainty as the RedHawks have a few options who could potentially be WR1.
Fade – RBs. Do not expect there to be another Rashad Amos. I REPEAT – do not expect another Rashad Amos. He was an anomaly, finishing the year as RB46 with 41.6% volume share and became the first 1,000-yard running back since Martin was hired. As most G5 players do following that type of performance, Amos parlayed his big year into an NIL package with Ole Miss. Veterans Keyon Mozee and Kenny Tracy return, but Martin hit the portal, bringing in Purdue transfer Dylan Downing, so we don’t anticipate depth being an issue. Early indications suggest that Miami (Ohio) will revert to being a backfield committee again.
Bargain Bin – WR Reggie Virgil ($3,200) While Tracy is our projected WR1 on the outside, he’s also just 6-feet tall. Virgil is the other starting boundary receiver with more prototypical size at 6-foot-4.
Pivot Play – QB Brett Gabbert ($7,100) Brett Gabbert is entering Taysom Hill territory, returning for his sixth season of college football after playing in just eight games last year. Gabbert will stabilize the passing game after the lowest mark (165.4 YPG) of the Chuck Martin era, but he is a backend roster option at best because of his lack of mobility. Gabbert did average 22 FPPG in his last full season as a starter. Northwestern is just 64th in returning production on defense from a year ago.
Best of the Rest – WR Cade McDonald ($4,100) McDonald will start in the slot, and was the team’s third leading receiver in 2023 behind Gage Larvadain and Joe Wilkins Jr. who have both moved on. While we tend to focus on the outside receivers, it’s not out of the realm of possibility that McDonald could be the WR1. Larvadain did play 51% of his reps in the slot last year.
Injury Notes – n/a
Northwestern:
Top Play(s) – RB Cam Porter ($5,400) Most notable when looking at Zach Lujan’s resume is his preference to keep the ball on the ground, as the South Dakota Jackrabbits ran it around 60% of the time between 2021-23. While Porter was awful last season, this new offensive system should benefit him. RB1 production under Lujan is as good as it gets, with five 1,000-yard rushers over the last six years.
Fade – Tight Ends. The days of Garrett Dickerson, Dan Vitale and Cameron Green are a thing of the past for Northwestern. Thomas Gordon and Marshall Lang both return after combining for just 33 targets a year ago. TE production under Lujan is only slightly better than what we’ve seen out of the Wildcats the last couple seasons.
Bargain Bin – Not considering any option below $4.9k.
Pivot Play – QBs. Northwestern is not publicly announcing their starting QB1 for Saturday and there is a chance we could see both Mike Wright and Jack Lausch. If we get indications on just one will see the field, and it’s Wright, our interest increases slightly. Lujan loves to get his quarterback involved in the run game, which Wright excels at. On the other hand, this is a low-ish team total and Miami (Ohio) is expected to have arguably the best defense in the MAC.
Best of the Rest – WRs. A.J. Henning ($4,900) and Bryce Kirtz ($5,100) combined for 94 receptions and nine touchdowns in 2023, but this is expected to be a low volume passing offense, throwing the ball just 41% of the time at South Dakota State. We do anticipate Henning and Kirtz dominating the target share, though, as no returning receiver had more than nine targets last year.
Injury Notes – n/a
Ohio vs. Syracuse
Point-Spread: Syra -17.5
O/U Total: 46.5
Implied Score: Syra 32 –Ohio 14.5
Weather: Dome
Syracuse:
Top Play(s) – RB LeQuint Allen ($5,100) The entire Syracuse side is completely underpriced on DraftKings and Allen is likely to have the most ownership of any player on the slate. Despite the new coaching staff, the Cuse do return four starters along the offensive line and his new OC Jeff Nixon is a former RB coach with the New York Giants. A couple quotes out there from the coaching staff that they’ll feed Allen this season. Ohio is 119th in returning defensive production.
Fade – WR Umari Hatcher ($6,600) Too pricey for the likely WR3 for the Cuse this season. Hatcher was rarely mentioned this offseason in practice reports.
Bargain Bin – TE Oronde Gadsden ($3,500) If Allen isn’t the most rostered player of the weekend, Gadsden will be. The star tight end returns after missing most of last year due to injury and is a potential cheat code tight end that is featured plenty in the slot. While a defensive-minded coach, Fran Brown knows a thing or two about star tight ends after spending the last two years around Brock Bowers.
Pivot Play – QB Kyle McCord ($8,000) HC Fran Brown sought out an established signal-caller to begin his regime, landing Ohio State transfer Kyle McCord, who threw for 3,100 yards and 24 touchdowns last year. McCord’s presence and experience should boost the offense as a whole, but he is unlikely to be a high-end fantasy asset given his lack of mobility. This is still a good matchup against an Ohio defense replacing over half its starting lineup on that side of the ball.
Best of the Rest – WR Zeed Haynes ($4,500) and / or WR Trebor Pena ($3,000) We expect Haynes and Pena to lead the Cuse WR in receiving this year, along with Gadsden. Haynes, a Georgia transfer, was named the team’s offensive MVP in the spring with six receptions on eight targets in the spring game. Pena was also extremely productive in scrimmages over the offseason. Should this become a blowout, backup RB Yasin Willis ($4,100) could get some run as a freshman. He’s the thunder to Allen’s lightning. Promising to see a freshman get the backup nod immediately and he was a spring enrollee so Willis knows the offense.
Injury Notes – WR Justus Ross-Simmons ($6,300) The Colorado State transfer is an easy fade at this price. He’s also questionable due to injury and was the team’s WR4 or WR5.
Ohio:
Top Play(s) – RB Rickey Hunt Jr. ($4,800) This is likely a run-based offense from the Bobcats in 2024. The Myrtle Beach Bowl did give us a glimpse at the future, primarily at running back with 203-pound redshirt freshman Rickey Hunt Jr., who took home MVP honors after a program record five touchdowns in the win over Georgia Southern. Flash in the pan or breakout candidate? Only two starters return on the offensive line is the main concern when facing a P4 opponent.
Fade – RB Anthony Tyus III ($4,200) Maybe Tyus becomes a thing down the road, but not playing a backup RB with a poor game script. In five of the last eight seasons, the RB2 for the Bobcats has posted 100+ rushing attempts, and we did see Sieh Bangura’s volume fluctuate last season with O’Shaan Allison vulturing carries. We’re expecting a run-based offense from Ohio in 2024 given the personnel, but there’s a definite path to this being a committee approach given Tim Albin’s play-calling history.
Bargain Bin – WR Bryce Butler ($3,000) Sorry, I know nothing about the player, but he’s min priced and a starter. Filling space with this choice.
Pivot Play – QB Parker Navarro ($7,400) If Navarro were $1k cheaper, I’d potentially consider. Ohio did not bring in a quarterback via the portal to compete with senior Parker Navarro, so we’re assuming he’s the guy. While he won’t blow anyone away with his physical attributes, Navarro does offer a running element at the position, and that was on display in the bowl game, as he ran for 71 yards on 15 attempts, which puts him on our radar as a potential weekly streaming option.
Best of the Rest – WRs. Over 90% of last year’s receiving production either graduated or hit the portal. WR Chase Hendricks ($5,200) is the most experienced returnee with 21 targets as a freshman. WR Coleman Owen ($5,500) is a Northern Arizona transfer that caught 175 passes over the last three seasons. The Bobcats had a great deal of success the last two year with another transfer in Sam Wiglusz.
Injury Notes – n/a
UTEP vs. Nebraska
Point-Spread: Neb -27.5
O/U Total: 49.5
Implied Score: Neb 39.5 – UTEP 11
Weather: 89 degrees / 5% rain / 6 mph winds
UTEP:
No depth chart and an entirely new roster makes this very tough to project. We’ll avoid UTEP for this week but here’s a snapshot from our CFF Guide of what to expect from the Miners this year.
There may not be a more energetic personality in the college football ranks than new UTEP head coach Scotty Walden, who comes over from Austin Peay, where he’s spent the last four seasons compiling a 26-14 record. Walden brings an offensive background to the Miners, having spent time previously as the OC at Southern Miss in 2019-20 and prior to that at East Texas Baptist. Walden’s offenses at Austin Peay were fast-paced, averaging around 73 plays per game, and yielded multiple standout performers like 1,300-yard rusher RB Jevon Jackson ($4,500) in 2023 and Drae McCray (now at Texas Tech), who posted 76 receptions for 1,021 yards in 2022. While there was plenty of roster turnover – 118th in returning production – the cupboard isn’t totally bare, as Walden imported 11 transfers from Austin Peay, including Jevon Jackson and several wide receivers with starting experience. Jackson appears to be a shoo-in for the team’s RB1 spot, but he will be running behind an entirely new offensive line that has limited snaps at the FBS level. At receiver, WR Kam Thomas ($4,900) is of the most intrigue, as he’ll line up in what is termed the “Miner Back” role, a dual-threat run-receiver position. Thomas was the second-leading receiver for Austin Peay with 621 yards and five touchdowns, while also adding 88 yards on 21 rushing attempts. Junior QB McConnell ($6,800) came out of the spring with a slight edge over transfer Skyler Locklear who was the backup at Austin Peay a year ago.
Nebraska:
Top Play(s) – TE Thomas Fidone ($4,500) Fidone is the one known commodity on this Nebraska offense, leading the Huskers last season with four passing touchdowns. And you don’t have to break the bank to roster him. Fidone is one of the best tight ends in the Big Ten when healthy.
Fade – RBs. Probably not wise to fade running backs on a team that’s a four-TD favorite, but that depth chart is MESSY. Notice too, that the group is listed in numerical order so despite Rahmir Johnson being at the top, that may not last long at all…or be true for that matter. This is likely a four-way split to start the year.
Bargain Bin – WR Janiran Bonner ($3,300) Interesting that the lowest priced receiver for Nebraska is the one in the starting lineup. Bonner could provide matchup issues for smaller defenders as he’s listed at 6-foot-2 starting in the slot.
Pivot Play – QB Dylan Raiola ($8,200) Optimism abound in Lincoln because of the 5-star freshman quarterback starting immediately with a roster that ranks 20th nationally in returning production. a. In the spring game, the 5-star did not disappoint, completing 16-of-22 passes for 239 yards and two touchdowns, hitting passes on all levels of the field. We’re tempering expectations from a fantasy perspective, though, as Raiola is a prototypical pocket passer that had -41 rushing yards during his high school career. That said, he’s facing a UTEP team with a brand-new coaching staff and a roster starting from scratch essentially.
Best of the Rest – WRs. Don’t think we need to pay too much attention to the Nebraska wide receivers here as they might run 6-7 deep here with a freshman throwing the football. Not necessarily a recipe for fantasy success. Jahmal Banks is the clear-cut WR1. Isaiah Neyor, the former Texas transfer, is a big play waiting to happen, averaging over 20 YPC for his career. He’s now healthy. Sophomore Jaylen Lloyd is a game-breaker, averaging almost 40 yards a catch (six receptions) as a freshman, and he had a 64- yard touchdown from Raiola in the spring game. Incoming freshman Jacory Barney Jr. might’ve generated the most buzz of any wideout with 163 all-purpose yards in the spring game. Mild interest here, I just wish these options were cheaper. Last year’s WR1 had just 20% of the target share.
Injury Notes – n/a
