CFB DFS: Week 3 – Thursday & Friday Slates (Preview)

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Arizona State vs. Texas State

Point-Spread: ASU -1.5

O/U Total: 58.5

Implied Score: ASU 30 – Tex St. 28.5

Weather: 90 degrees / 1% rain / 3 mph winds

Arizona State:

Top Play(s) – RB Cam Skattebo ($6,500) Didn’t need my help here to know that the running back that ran for 262 yards on 33 attempts last week is Arizona State’s top DFS play. You have a pair of teams in Texas State and South Alabama that have employed backfield committees at times this year and an FCS school on the slate. Just have to eat the chalk and roster Skattebo in 100% of your lineups.

Fade – RB Alton McCaskill ($4,000) Remember when McCaskill was one of the best freshmen in the entire country and looking like a potential superstar? Times have changed. McCaskill saw the field briefly in a blowout setting in Week 1. Zero snaps played in a competitive game in Week 2. Doesn’t appear McCaskill is even in the conversation at this point.

Bargain Bin – TE Chamon Metayer ($3,800) Just two targets in each of the first two games for the Cincinnati transfer, but like the way his playing time increased in Week 2 vs. Mississippi State. Played 60% of the offensive snaps on Saturday and ran a route on 27% of his snaps. Both increases over Week 1.

Pivot Play – QB Sam Leavitt ($9,000) Last Saturday’s run – pass splits are not sustainable week to week, with Leavitt throwing just 20 passes. He’s the obvious third option between McCloud and whomever gets the nod for South Alabama this week, but he’s a dual-threat QB that’ll likely get 10+ rushing attempts. That architype is always in play for DFS. Texas State hasn’t faced anyone of note through two games, but the secondary is grading out strongly, ranking 2nd in pass play success rate and 23rd in EPA per pass play.

Best of the Rest – WR Jordyn Tyson ($6,000) Tyson looks like the team’s WR1 through two weeks and should’ve had a touchdown on Saturday had Leavitt thrown a better pass. Tyson’s 13 targets are nearly double the next closest Arizona State option. WR Xavier Guillory ($5,800) is on the field around 86% of the offensive snaps through two games as Arizona State has primarily run two-WR sets. Slot receiver WR Melquan Stovall ($5,800) has just four targets in two games but is the third option behind the top two.

Injury Notes – n/a

Texas State:

Top Play(s) –

Arizona vs. Kansas State

Point-Spread: KSU -7

O/U Total: 58

Implied Score: KSU 32.5 – UA 25.5

Weather: 78 degrees / 1% rain / 6 mph winds

Arizona:

Top Play(s) – WR Tetairoa McMillan ($8,600) A wide receiver that already has a 300-yard performance this season will assuredly be a team’s top play and always worth the price of admission. Kansas State has already allowed a 100-yard receiver this season in Mario Williams last week. The Wildcats also don’t grade out very well against the pass through two weeks, ranking 102nd in EPA per pass play.

Fade – WR Montana Lemonious-Craig ($5,100) I think we’re at the point to be able to say MLC is just not a good player. 150+ targets of vacated production from last season and Craig has all of three targets in two games. He’s the WR3 in this offense.

Bargain Bin – TE Keyan Burnett ($3,400) The talk in the offseason was that the tight end position would be featured more under Brent Brennan and the new staff. Hasn’t transpired just yet with starter Keyan Burnett having just four targets but is first among all Arizona pass-catchers in snaps played this season. I think it helps matters that the WR room has been a massive disappointment beyond T-Mac.

Pivot Play – WR Jeremiah Patterson ($4,500) Usage went up for Patterson last week in the win over Northern Arizona, leading the team with six targets and ran a route on 60% of his snaps. Patterson was one of the stars of fall camp for the Wildcats, so while it’s been a slow-ish start, it’s not as though anyone as has emerged as a WR2 in this offense yet.

Best of the Rest – RB Quali Conley ($7,100) Conley gets a huge boost with the eligibility issues for Jacory Croskey-Merritt. There is not an established RB2 now to steal carries away. Kansas State has been solid against the run to start the year, but also allowed Makhi Hughes to rush for 100+ last week. Good, not great play. WR Noah Fifita ($8,600) is my QB3 for the slate behind Avery Johnson and Matthew Sluka, because he doesn’t run. Fifita’s numbers may also suffer this season because Arizona has just one established option to catch the football right now.

Injury Notes – RB Jacory Croskey-Merritt ($6,400) Not injury related but doesn’t seem like we’ll see Croskey-Merritt anytime soon as they’re investigating an eligibility issue with the NCAA. Issue being…he might be out of eligibility.

Kansas State: