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Memphis vs. Florida State
Point-Spread: FSU -6.5
O/U Total: 52.5
Implied Score: FSU 29.5 – Mem 23
Weather: 82 degrees / 25% rain / 3 mph winds
Memphis:
Top Play(s) – RB Mario Anderson ($6,200) The dynamic of the Memphis backfield changed drastically when Sutton Smith was lost for the season due to injury. While this has typically been a one-man band in the backfield as we saw a year ago with Blake Watson, it was looking as though Anderson / Sutton were going to split reps early on. This is now Anderson’s backfield with 50% of the volume share. At least until Memphis gets within the two-yard line and then RB Brandon Thomas ($4,300) vultures away a touchdown. FSU has been horrendous defensively to start the year against both the run and pass.
Fade – RB Brandon Thomas ($4,300) Thomas is Memphis’ goal-line option only. While he’s very good at this particular skillset – nine rushing TDs in 2023 – this is not something you can bank on in DFS. His three rushing attempts this season have all come inside the red zone.
Bargain Bin – WR Koby Drake ($3,800) Four targets in each of the first two games for Drake who functions as Memphis’ WR3 on the outside. Productive player that did have 50+ targets a year ago and is third on the team in routes run.
Pivot Play – WR DeMeer Blankumsee ($6,200) Roc Taylor gets the headlines, and rightfully so, but Blankumsee is no slouch, catching seven touchdown passes on 83 targets in 2023. Slow start to 2024, but Memphis hasn’t really been in any competitive matchups yet. The former Toledo transfer leads all Tigers’ wideouts in routes run this season.
Best of the Rest – QB Seth Henigan ($8,000) The senior QB has been efficient to start 2024, completing 70% of his throws with three touchdowns. FSU has not been good at anything defensively, ranking 121st in pass D success rate and 122nd in EPA per pass play. If playing Henigan, I’m stacking with one of Blankumsee or WR Roc Taylor ($6,500) as they’re his clear top two options.
Injury Notes – n/a
Florida State:
Top Play(s) – WR Ja’khi Douglas ($4,500) The veteran slot receiver has been the most consistent FSU wideout thus far, leading the team with eight receptions on 13 targets. The hope is that a quarterback change at some point can unlock some untapped fantasy potential with some of these FSU pass-catchers.
Fade – QB D.J. Uiagalelei ($7,500) We were already looking at fading DJU heading into Saturday because of his previous performances. And while we may be looking into this a little too deeply, the video coming out of Wednesday’s practices caught our eye. QBs were rotating in practice, but it seemed as though Brock Glenn was first in line throwing warmup passes. Maybe something, maybe nothing. But we wouldn’t put it out of the realm of possibility that DJU gets replaced at some point.
Bargain Bin – WR Hykeem Williams ($3,500) I mean, why not? Outside of Ja’Khi Douglas, there isn’t a true difference maker among the Florida State receivers. Williams, a 5-star coming out of high school, has yet to make an impact in his career, but is expected to make his season debut Saturday. Williams made a couple of splash plays in Wednesday’s practice reportedly.
Pivot Play – RB Kam Davis ($3,000) Jaylin Lucas is out for the season due to injury and Roydell Williams looks like the same fourth string running back that we saw at Alabama. With depth lacking, and the Seminoles in a hole at 0-2, don’t be shocked to see some freshmen like Davis get some extended work here.
Best of the Rest – TE Kyle Morlock ($3,400) The senior tight end had a horrendous Week 1 with more drops (2) than receptions (0) but was targeted six times against Boston College. Morlock has had a bounce back week in practice from all accounts. RB Roydell Williams ($5,800) and RB Lawrance Toafili ($5,500) likely still get the bulk of the carries this week – even though we like Davis to get some extended run – after combining for a pair of touchdowns vs. BC. Memphis is only allowing 5.5 fantasy points to running backs through the first two games. WRs Malik Benson ($5,100) and Jalen Brown ($4,700) are second and third, respectively, in routes run for the Seminoles.
Injury Notes – RB Jaylin Lucas ($5,200) Out for the season.
Oklahoma State vs. Tulsa
Point-Spread: Ok St -19.5
O/U Total: 62.5
Implied Score: Ok St 41.5 – Tulsa 21
Weather: 78 degrees / 1% rain / 6 mph winds
Oklahoma State:
Top Play(s) – WR Brennan Presley ($7,100) The price tag on Ollie Gordon is tough to justify this week, hence Presley being listed as our top Oklahoma State player coming off a 19-target performance last Saturday against Arkansas. Tulsa has given up the 13th most fantasy points to opposing wide receivers in the country through two games.
Fade – Backups. I’m going to sound like a broken record every time that Oklahoma State is on a DFS slate. Just 16 targets combined have gone to players not named Presley, Stribling, Owens and Gordon. And Gordon is dominating the backfield market share again this season at nearly 70% thus far.
Bargain Bin – n/a. Not playing anyone below $5.2k.
Pivot Play – WR De’Zhaun Stribling ($5,200) or WR Rashod Owens ($5,500) Presley is going to see high ownership after last week’s performance. But you’re fine rostering any one of the top three Oklahoma State receivers, and potentially stacking two in the same lineup. The trio is dominating the team target share again this season at 72%. Nobody else catches passes.
Best of the Rest – QB Alan Bowman ($8,300) Tulsa’s offense should be good ‘enough’ to keep this game competitive for a bit. If there’s been a weakness on the Golden Hurricanes’ defense thus far, it’s been the secondary, ranked 126th in EPA per pass play and 89th in pass D success rate. RB Ollie Gordon II ($10,000) is never not in play as a potential option and does have the highest projection of any RB on the slate. Just a matter of being able to fit that price tag and have a competitive lineup.
Injury Notes – n/a
Tulsa:
Top Play(s) –
Full Write-up Games:
Alabama v. Wisconsin; LSU v So. Carolina; BC v. Missouri; Tulane v. Oklahoma; Nevada v. Minnesota; Oregon v. Oregon St.; Washington v. Wash. St.; Texas A&M v. Florida; West Virginia v. Pitt; Notre Dame v. Purdue
All-American and Heisman Members can view Weekly Player Projections here (click).
To become an All-American or Heisman member of theCFFsite, click here.
Heisman Members can view the full write-up here (click).
To get a one-week membership to view theCFFsite’s Week 3 Player Projections and DFS write-ups, click here.