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Central Florida vs. TCU
Point-Spread: TCU -1.5
O/U Total: 62.5
Implied Score: TCU 32 – UCF 30.5
Weather: 95 degrees / 3% rain / 6 mph winds
Central Florida:
Top Play(s) – RB RJ Harvey ($8,500) Harvey has been dominant to start 2024 with back-to-back 100-yard rushing performances, and hitting the century mark this week would give his five straight games of 100 or more yards, dating back to last season. TCU faced two teams with anemic rushing offenses in the first two games, so we don’t have any data to conclude how they’ll perform against this potent running game.
Fade – RB Peny Boone ($7,200) On that same note, Boone should’ve stayed at Toledo or transferred to a different destination because his arrival has had no impact whatsoever on RJ Harvey’s fantasy output. To his credit, Boone is averaging nearly eight yards per attempt with rushing TDs in each of the first two games but is running third behind Harvey and Myles Montgomery.
Bargain Bin – TE Randy Pittman Jr. ($3,900) Pittman has just two targets in each of the first two weeks, but played a season-high 91% of snaps last week against Sam Houston State. Pittman had a strong rookie season as a freshman with 215 yards on 25 targets.
Pivot Play – QB KJ Jefferson ($8,900) I thought this was going to look better than it has with Jefferson being paired with Gus Malzahn. Not that Jefferson would be Cam Newton or anything, but dual-threats like Jefferson have thrived under the UCF head coach in fantasy. Instead, UCF is hiding Jefferson and leaning heavily on Harvey and this running game. The Arkansas transfer did look more comfortable last week, completing 12 of 15 passes, but was kept out of the end-zone.
Best of the Rest – WR Kobe Hudson ($7,700) and WR Xavier Townsend ($6,400) UCF lacks a competent WR3 currently so not surprising to see Hudson and Townsend at the top of the leaderboard with 17 combined targets between them. Next closest wideout has three targets. Would strongly lean one of the two if looking to have a UCF receiver in the lineup. Auburn transfer Ja’Varrius Johnson started ahead of Trent Whittemore vs. Sam Houston State, but neither player has been effective.
Injury Notes – n/a
TCU:
Top Play(s) – WR Savion Williams ($6,300) Far and away the team’s top option at wide receiver with 22 targets in two games. Every TCU wide receiver got into the action last week against an FCS opponent so it’s important for us to reference how the rotations went that first game vs. Stanford. And Williams was out there 86% of the time with the second most routes run.
Fade – RB Trey Sanders ($4,900) Consider this automatic anytime TCU is on the slate until DK lowers Sanders’ price tag. Sanders looks to have fallen to at least RB3 at this point behind Dominique Johnson. Also, Cam Cook is HIM.
Bargain Bin – TE / WR Jack Bech ($4,600) We stated above the WR rotations in Week 1 vs. Stanford would be our reference point for this UCF matchup. The top three receivers of Williams, Bech and WR John Paul Richardson ($5,700) dominated that contest with 33 of the 41 targets, with each playing over 85% of the snaps with little rotation. We’re going to assume this week looks very similar.
Pivot Play – QB Josh Hoover ($9,100) Hoover has the highest upside of any quarterback on the slate, with the potential of this game becoming a shootout. The sophomore QB has now scored 28 or more fantasy points in six of his last eight games played dating back to last season. UCF’s pass defense has been more susceptible in the early going, ranked 61st in pass D success rate.
Best of the Rest – RB Cam Cook ($5,800) Too cheap for a running back that will dominate the touches in the TCU backfield. Cook has four rushing touchdowns in the first two games and his 33 carries are 25 more than the next closest running back on the team. Not bad for just a redshirt freshman. Outside of Cook, Hoover and the Top 3 wideouts, we’re not looking at anyone else from the TCU side.
Injury Notes – n/a
Indiana vs. UCLA
Point-Spread: IU -3
O/U Total: 46
Implied Score: IU 24.5 – UCLA 21.5
Weather: 80 degrees / 1% rain / 6 mph winds
Indiana:
Top Play(s) – WR Elijah Sarratt ($6,800) Sarratt gets the slight nod over WR Omar Cooper Jr. ($5,900) because of the Donaven McCulley factor. If, and that’s a big if, McCulley did impact one of the two, it would be Cooper. 15 receptions and over 300 receiving yards combined between the two. Remember last year with James Madison, this system was able to support two high-end fantasy receivers with Sarratt and Reggie Brown.
Fade – WR Donaven McCulley ($4,700) Report this week that McCulley will be available for the first time this season. Will be interesting to see how this impacts the WR rotations, but I’d imagine Indiana will break in McCulley slowly in his first game back. In all honesty, no need to play McCulley that much given how Elijah Sarratt and Omar Cooper Jr. have performed.
Bargain Bin – TE Zach Horton ($4,300) The James Madison transfer followed the coaching staff to Bloomington and is playing 80% of the offensive snaps in each of the first two games. In Week 1, Horton was targeted four times with a touchdown.
Pivot Play – WR Myles Price ($5,600) Sarratt and Cooper get the headlines, but Price has been solid in the slot with eight receptions on 10 targets. That trio of receivers are dominating the target share – all over 20% – with no other wideout really involved until garbage time. Price will have minimal ownership most likely.
Best of the Rest – QB Kurtis Rourke ($8,600) We have just one data point as to how the UCLA pass defense fares against an opponent, limiting Hawaii to just 227 passing yards and one TD in the opener. Rourke has played well through two games, averaging 224 YPG with three touchdowns and zero turnovers, but hasn’t utilized his legs much and this is expected to be a lower scoring game. RB Ty Son Lawton ($6,000) is pacing the backfield with three rushing TDs, but this is a committee approach with Justice Ellison and Elijah Green all involved.
Injury Notes – n/a
UCLA:
Top Play(s) –
Full write-ups: Colorado v. Colorado St.; UTSA v. Texas; Air Force v. Baylor; Georgia v. Kentucky; UCF v. TCU; Indiana v. UCLA; Maryland v. Virginia
All-American and Heisman Members can view Weekly Player Projections here (click).
To become an All-American or Heisman member of theCFFsite, click here.
Heisman Members can view the full write-up here (click).
To get a one-week membership to view theCFFsite’s Week 3 Player Projections and DFS write-ups, click here.