All-American and Heisman Members can view Weekly Player Projections here (click).
To become an All-American or Heisman member of theCFFsite, click here.
Heisman Members can view the full write-up here (click).
To get a one-week membership to view theCFFsite’s Week 4 Player Projections and DFS write-ups, click here.
Stanford vs. Syracuse
Point-Spread: Syra -10.5
O/U Total: 57.5
Implied Score: Syra 34 – Stan 23.5
Weather: Dome
Stanford:
Top Play(s) – WR Elic Ayomanor ($6,500) Wide receiver is, by far, the position with the most options on this slate, so the Stanford WR1 is not a must-have. Ayomanor is, by far, the team’s best offensive player, now with 16 targets in two games, crossing the century mark in Week 1 vs. TCU. Four receivers have scored double-digit fantasy points against the Orange this season, including 24 from Ohio’s Coleman Owen in Week 1.
Fade – RBs. Maybe one of the Stanford backs show up on the optimals because they’re so cheap, but this is arguably the least fantasy relevant position on any team in the FBS. The Cardinal are 120th in EPA per rush play and 98th in rush play success rate. And I’d venture to guess a large part of any success Stanford has on the ground comes from the quarterbacks. RB Micah Ford ($3,700) was the lead vs. TCU in Week 1 with 10 carries, but now is averaging 1.1 yards per carry through two games.
Bargain Bin – TE Sam Roush ($3,700) Even without Ben Yurosek, the tight end position remains a featured option in the Stanford passing game. Roush is fifth on the team in targets (7) and second in routes run, on the field around 94% of the time.
Pivot Play – WR Tiger Bachmeier ($5,100) I’d be lying if I said I knew for sure the dynamics of the Stanford slot receiver though two weeks. I believe Bachmeier is still the starter in name but played sparingly in the blowout over Cal Poly and was not targeted a single time. Meanwhile, WR Ismael Cisse ($4,800) has been the top performer not named Elic Ayomanor with 14 targets through two games, including a perfect 8-for-8 vs. Cal Poly. We know Stanford will need to throw on Friday, so either player could be a factor, but wouldn’t stack as they play the same spot.
Best of the Rest – QB Ashton Daniels ($7,300) Tea leaves make it sound like 4-star freshman Elijah Brown will get the starting job at some point this season, but difficult to imagine Stanford would send him out to the wolves on a primetime road start. Daniels is a proficient enough passer, but his viability comes with his legs as the team’s leading rusher with over 150 yards in two games. The Stanford defense hasn’t been good in any facet, ranking 100th and 108th, respectively, in rush and pass D success rate. It won’t be pretty, but Daniels should hit value just on his volume alone.
Injury Notes – n/a
Syracuse:
Top Play(s) –
Fade –
Bargain Bin –
Pivot Play –
Best of the Rest –
Injury Notes – n/a
Illinois vs. Nebraska
Point-Spread: Neb -8.5
O/U Total: 43.5
Implied Score: Neb 26 – Illini 17.5
Weather: 81 degrees / 32% rain / 9 mph winds
Illinois:
Top Play(s) –
Fade –
Bargain Bin –
Pivot Play –
Best of the Rest – Injury Notes – n/a
Nebraska:
Top Play(s) – RB Dante Dowdell ($5,500) The Week 2 matchup with Colorado is going to be our best barometer for how to play this Nebraska offense. And the Oregon transfer dominated the backfield touches that day with 74 yards and two scores on 17 attempts. Dowdell’s six rushing attempts inside the red zone are double the next closest running back.
Fade – RB Gabe Ervin ($3,800) Seems to be the odd man out of the four-man rotation in the Nebraska backfield. Just five carries in the last two games since rushing for two scores against UTEP in Week 1. This won’t be a blowout so the RB4 has no appeal to us.
Bargain Bin – TE Thomas Fidone ($3,700) Fidone is a perfect six for six this season on targets directed his way…for just 26 yards with an aDOT of 0.0 this season. Against UTEP and Northern Iowa, passes in his direction were behind the line of scrimmage. Still, Fidone is the clear TE1 and should have an impact in competitive games like this.
Pivot Play – RB Rahmir Johnson ($5,300) Good on the Nebraska coaching staff to get more creative with Johnson who is simply not an every-down running back at this point in his career. Tied for second on the team with 11 targets, including eight receptions in the win over Colorado. He’ll get 7-10 rushing attempts as well.
Best of the Rest – QB Dylan Raiola ($8,000) If playing Raiola, you must stack the lineup with either one of his top targets in WR Jahmal Banks ($4,700) or Isaiah Neyor ($5,700), since he’s a net zero on the ground. Illinois pass defense has been pretty good thus far, allowing just 10.4 FPPG to quarterbacks so our interest in Raiola is minimal. We’d rather just play one of Banks or Neyor in a lineup alone. Both of Kansas’ starting receivers, Luke Grimm and Lawrence Arnold combined for 31 fantasy points in their matchup with the Illini secondary.
Injury Notes – n/a.
San Jose State vs. Washington State
Point-Spread: Wazzu -13.5
O/U Total: 55.5
Implied Score: Wazzu 34.5 – SJSU 21
Weather: 60 degrees / 4% rain / 6 mph winds
San Jose State:
Top Play(s) – WR Nick Nash ($8,900) The best fantasy receiver in college football by a wide margin through three weeks. Nash has scored 27 more fantasy points this season than the next closest receiver (Tai Felton), now leading the nation with 34 receptions and six touchdowns on 44 targets. Five different receivers have scored double-digit fantasy points against Washington State this season, including last week where Washington’s Giles Jackson went for 30+.
Fade –
Bargain Bin –
Pivot Play –
Best of the Rest –
Injury Notes –
Washington State:
Top Play(s) – QB John Mateer ($9,000) We’re going to use the same analysis as last week with regards to Mateer, who has currently scored more fantasy points this season than any other player in college football. Of course, any player can fail, but there is not just one path here for Mateer to succeed. If San Jose State loads the box, Mateer plays in an Air Raid system under OC Ben Arbuckle. If the Spartans defend the pass, then Mateer has the legs to beat any defense as he already has a 197-yard rushing performance this season. Top play of the slate.
Fade –
Bargain Bin –
Pivot Play –
Best of the Rest –
Injury Notes – n/a
All-American and Heisman Members can view Weekly Player Projections here (click).
To become an All-American or Heisman member of theCFFsite, click here.
Heisman Members can view the full write-up here (click).
To get a one-week membership to view theCFFsite’s Week 4 Player Projections and DFS write-ups, click here.