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Georgia Tech vs. Louisville
Point-Spread: UL -9.5
O/U Total: 57.5
Implied Score: UL 33.5 – GT 24
Weather: 87 degrees / 3% rain / 6 mph winds
Georgia Tech:
Top Play(s) – QB Haynes King ($7,600) Georgia Tech played 12 regular season games last season. King scored 20 or more fantasy points in every single one. While that streak was broken against Florida State in Week 0, King is back on track with 29 or more fantasy points in each of the last three games. We don’t know how good this Louisville defense is yet having played two cupcakes to start the year. Very reasonable price for a dual-threat QB who will need to play the entire game.
Fade – WR Christian Leary ($3,400) The former 4-star Alabama transfer has been relegated to special teams and blowout duties only. Did play a season-high 32% of snaps last week against VMI in the 59-7 blowout. The week prior in a competitive game against Syracuse? Just 7% of offensive snaps.
Bargain Bin – WR Malik Rutherford ($4,800) A relative bargain here for Rutherford considering he has more targets on the year than his counterpart WR Eric Singleton ($5,000), having scored a touchdown in three of the four games this year. Rutherford is averaging career highs in 2024 at 13.0 yards per catch and 4.13 yards per route run. This duo combines for 44% of Georgia Tech’s target share so it’s not outrageous to stack them together in a lineup in GPP.
Pivot Play – RB Jamal Haynes ($6,200) Toss last week’s blowout into the trash can. Rushing touchdowns in each of the first three weeks for Haynes, who is also a perfect 10-for-10 out of the backfield as a receiver. Louisville did allow a 100-yard rusher in Week 1 (yes, it was the quarterback).
Best of the Rest – WR Chase Lane ($4,200) Lane is second on the team in routes run, though is averaging just under three targets per contest. TE Avery Boyd ($3,800), a converted receiver, has run about a third of the routes that Lane has, yet far more effective with 11 receptions and two TDs on 14 targets. Maybe Tech should have Boyd on the field more?
Injury Notes – n/a
Louisville:
Top Play(s) – WR Ja’Corey Brooks ($4,800) Severely underpriced receiver that’ll probably have one of the higher ownership rates on the slate as a result. The once afterthought at Alabama is having a renaissance season thus far with 13 receptions on 15 targets, more than double the next closest Louisville receiver. As we preached all offseason, the Jeff Brohm WR1 is undefeated – it was just about determining who that would be. Brooks is the guy.
Fade – WR Ahmari Huggins-Bruce ($4,500) After entering the portal this offseason, Huggins-Bruce rejoined the team back in August. No acclimation period needed as he already knows the offense, but Louisville seems to be sorting out its slot position still, rotating in Jadon Thompson and Cataurus Hicks to see who the best option is. Thompson played 42% of the snaps in the opener and is listed atop the depth chart, so he’d get the slight nod if looking to roster Louisville’s WR3.
Bargain Bin – RB Maurice Turner ($4,200) Louisville will rotate four different running backs as indicated in the first two weeks, though the veteran Turner is the team’s starter. Realistically, I think you can trot out any one of Turner, Isaac Brown, Keyjuan Brown or even Duke Watson and not burn a lineup considering how good each has been thus far. We think passing game with Jeff Brohm, but the Louisville run game has been elite the last 15 games or so, now ranked 4th in EPA per rush play. The combined yards per carry average right now amongst the top four is over 10 YPA. Unreal.
Pivot Play – WR Chris Bell ($4,000) It feels established at this point that Brooks is WR1, but we still have just two games of evidence to show that. Small sample. As we stated above, Louisville doesn’t have a trust third option right now in the passing game, so the BB duo is getting heavy on-field reps, with both playing over 80% of the snaps in the Week 2 matchup with Austin Peay.
Best of the Rest – QB Tyler Shough ($7,200) Talent and fantasy production has never been the issue with Shough – it’s been all about health. Prior to the season-ending injury last year, Shough was averaging over 30 fantasy points per game. Strong start to 2024 with 50 fantasy points combined in two games. Tech is vulnerable through the air as showcased in Week 2 against Kyle McCord, allowing 300+ yards. The Jackets rank 104th in pass D success rate.
Injury Notes – n/a
Florida vs. Mississippi State
Point-Spread: UF -5.5
O/U Total: 57.5
Implied Score: UF 31.5 – MSU 26
Weather: 80 degrees / 0% rain / 4 mph winds
Florida:
Top Play(s) – WR Elijhah Badger ($5,000) With Wilson out, Badger likely functions as the team’s WR1 as he was a standout vs. A&M with 5-94-1 on six targets. WR Chimere Dike ($4,800) had nearly identical numbers to Badger with 6-91-1 on seven targets. Both are viable options this week, but we’d side closer to Badger if choosing one as he’s been the better player over the last several seasons.
Fade – QBs. The two-QB system eliminates both DJ Lagway and Graham Mertz from the conversation. My only hope is that they can continue to feed their talented collection of receivers, even without Wilson.
Bargain Bin – TE Arlis Boardingham ($3,900) Boardingham had his best performance of the season with five receptions on six targets last week vs. the Aggies. Just a hunch here that there’s more room for him to operate in the middle of the field without Eugene Wilson out there.
Pivot Play – RB Montrell Johnson ($5,900) Seven carries for negative yardage last week in a game that got away from Florida in the first half. Johnson will see less ownership as a result but could be in store for a bounce back performance if the Gators’ offense is motivated at all. Mississippi State is 95th in rush D success rate and allowed a combined 48 fantasy points to Cam Skattebo and Toledo’s Willie Shaw.
Best of the Rest – WR Aidan Mizell ($3,800) The talented sophomore caught a touchdown in Week 2 vs. Samford and saw his playing time double with Wilson out of the lineup.
Injury Notes – WR Eugene Wilson ($6,800) Wilson is still listed as questionable on DK, but he will not play this week after undergoing a surgical procedure this week. Early reporting says there is optimism that Wilson could return in the next month or so, and not a season-ending injury.
Mississippi State:
Top Play(s) – WR Kevin Coleman Jr. ($5,500) Coleman was a colossal bust at Louisville last year after transferring in from the FCS level. This offense under Jeff Lebby clearly suits him, now with a receiving touchdown in each of the first three weeks.
Fade – RBs We’re looking at a three-man rotation for a team in the Bulldogs that is 103rd in rush play success rate on offense. No thank you. FWIW – Keyvone Lee has been the starter, but it was Johnnie Daniels who was listed on the prop market after rushing for 56 yards last week vs. Toledo. If you’re dead set on having an MSU back in your lineup – why would you be – I would give Daniels a look.
Bargain Bin – TE Seydou Traore ($3,700) Feels like forever and a day ago that Traore was a standout freshman tight end catching 40 passes back at Arkansas State. He’s finally found his footing with the Bulldogs, now second on the team with 18 targets – 12 of which have come in the last two games. Florida has struggled to defend the tight end position so far, allowing double-digit fantasy points to the TE1 for Miami and Texas A&M – two teams that don’t really use the position all that much.
Pivot Play –
Best of the Rest –
Injury Notes – n/a
Other Games on the Saturday Main Slate write-up for Heisman Members:
- Marshall v Ohio State
- Houston v Cincinnati
- Kansas v West Virginia
- NC State v Clemson
- Arkansas v Auburn
- UCLA v LSU
- Arizona St. v Texas Tech
- Miami (OH) v Notre Dame
- Rutgers v Virginia Tech
- USC v Michigan
- Utah v Oklahoma State
All-American and Heisman Members can view Weekly Player Projections here (click).
To become an All-American or Heisman member of theCFFsite, click here.
Heisman Members can view the full write-up here (click).
To get a one-week membership to view theCFFsite’s Week 4 Player Projections and DFS write-ups, click here.