All-American and Heisman Members can view Weekly Player Projections here (click).
To become an All-American or Heisman member of theCFFsite, click here.
Heisman Members can view the full write-up here (click).
To get a one-week membership to view theCFFsite’s Week 4 Player Projections and DFS write-ups, click here.
Miami vs. South Florida
Point-Spread: UM -17
O/U Total: 65
Implied Score: UM 41 – USF 24
Weather: 84 degrees / 8% rain / 4 mph winds
Miami:
Top Play(s) – QB Cam Ward ($10,000) I’ve never much been a big proponent of spending up at quarterback, but I think it’s warranted here with Ward as Miami is second in the country, averaging over 400 yards per game through the air. I love the pairing with
WR Xavier Restrepo ($7,000), his top receiving option in the slot, but the Hurricanes have a plethora of receiving options that Ward is more of a guarantee. Obviously, can’t go wrong with either player.
Fade – RB Damien Martinez ($6,000) Martinez can be productive against this USF defense, but we question the volume…and more importantly, the volume Martinez gets in the red area. A grand total of three rushing attempts against Ball State really isn’t much of a red flag considering the game was 62-0. But the gaining confidence the coaching staff has in a healthy RB Mark Fletcher ($5,500) and a talented true freshman in RB Jordan Lyle ($3,000) is the concern. It doesn’t feel like Miami will have a bell cow this season with the surplus of depth in the backfield.
Bargain Bin – RB Jordan Lyle ($3,000) Should this be another double-digit victory for the Hurricanes, you can anticipate you’ll see the 4-star freshman getting run in the second half. Double-digit fantasy points in each of the last two games. While Lyle may have the brightest long-term outlook of any Miami running back, the concern would be that this game is relatively close like the USF-Alabama game was two weeks ago, and Lyle is a non-factor behind three veterans.
Pivot Play – TE Elijah Arroyo ($3,400) Amidst all the talent at wide receiver, Arroyo is becoming a consistent factor in the passing game with seven receptions and two touchdowns. USF struggled to defend the tight end position last week, allowing 13 fantasy points to Southern Miss TE Kyrin Heath.
Best of the Rest – WRs Not Named Restrepo. They’re all bunched together with little separation. WR Samuel Brown ($4,800) does lead the team in targets (19) but might be the least appealing of the bunch, averaging just 8 yards per reception with a team-high three drops. WR Jacolby George ($5,300) and WR Isaiah Horton ($4,100) have 15 targets a piece and are both averaging over 15 yards per reception. Stacking one of these options with Restrepo can be viable in GPP.
Injury Notes – n/a
South Florida:
Top Play(s) – QB Byrum Brown ($6,700) Brown’s rushing volume keeps him in the QB pool for this slate with 38 carries over the last two games, including 20 against Alabama in Week 2. Don’t forget – Brown was just one of two players last season to post 3,000 passing yards and 800 rushing yards, alongside Heisman Trophy winner Jayden Daniels. No need to pair Brown with any USF wide receiver as the USF passing game has been non-existent, averaging just 5.3 yards per attempt.
Fade – RB Kelly Joiner ($4,500) Truthfully we should probably just fade the entire backfield but will list Joiner here first as he’s the highest priced. Despite topping 100 yards last week, Joiner only plays around 30% of the team’s offensive snaps as USF will rotate between him, Nay’Quan Wright and Ta’Ron Keith. Outside of one long Montrell Johnson run in Week 1, the Miami defense has been very good against the run, allowing just 2.7 yards per carry.
Bargain Bin – WR Sean Atkins ($4,300) Atkins doesn’t generate any explosive plays as indicated by USF’s struggles in the passing game, but is still averaging 7.6 targets per game and is a former 1,000-yard receiver so we know talent is there. Should be prioritized on DK over FD with the scoring settings. Still too cheap a price for a receiver of his caliber.
Pivot Play – WR Michael Brown Stephens ($3,800) At some point USF will need to get some explosive plays out of the passing game. If not Atkins, MBS has as good a shot as any. Third in routes run, but his average depth of target for the season is now over 20 yards. Need Byrum Brown to connect on one of these deep shots, but it would be Brown-Stephens as the recipient most likely if he does.
Best of the Rest – WR Abdur-Rahmaan Yaseen ($3,500) The Purdue transfer hasn’t made a huge impact just yet but is second on the team behind Atkins in routes run and targets (13). USF isn’t rotating much at receiver, so you’re only looking at Atkins, Yaseen or Brown Stephens as options.
Injury Notes – n/a
California vs. Florida State
Point-Spread: FSU -2.5
O/U Total: 44.5
Implied Score: FSU 23.5 – Cal 21
Weather: 85 degrees / 0% rain / 3 mph winds
California:
Top Play(s) – Whoever Starts At RB. Cal’s beat writer expects Ott to play this week. He was also dressed in uniform at one point a week ago, and didn’t play a single snap. In his place, former Old Dominion transfer RB Jaivian Thomas ($5,000) had a career day with 169 yards on 17 carries in the win over San Diego State. The wrong team is favored here, regardless of if Ott plays or not. Five different running backs have already scored double-digit fantasy points against FSU this season, including two 20-point performances from the Boston College duo of Treshaun Ward and Kye Robichaux.
Fade – QB Fernando Mendoza ($7,200) There are nine quarterbacks I’d rank ahead of Mendoza here with just a 15-point projection. FSU grades out terribly against the pass, ranked 122nd in pass D success rate, but have fared well from a fantasy perspective, holding Seth Henigan last week to just 17 fantasy points. Thomas Castellanos scored 25 fantasy points against the Seminoles but did a lot of his work on the ground. Mendoza has a grand total of 12 rushing yards.
Bargain Bin – TE Corey Dyches ($3,100) The Maryland transfer had a season-best five targets with a touchdown last week. Florida State struggled to defend Memphis tight end Anthony Landphere last Saturday, allowing 17 fantasy points. WR Mavin Anderson ($3,800) also gets a nod here, playing at least 61% of the team’s offensive snaps in all three games this season – most of any Cal wideout.
Pivot Play – WR Nyziah Hunter ($5,000) From a target standpoint, Cal does not have a “target hog” at just 15% of the share. But Hunter is a name we need to get to know, now with four receptions in all three games to start the season with four of Cal’s five receiving touchdowns on the year. As it stands, Hunter plays just 50% of the team’s offensive snaps. I think that needs to change, Justin Wilcox.
Best of the Rest – WR Hodgepodge. There is no clear WR1 for Cal just yet based on playing time. New Mexico State transfer Jonathan Brady leads all California wideouts in routes run. Mikey Matthews is third in targets (11). Trond Grizzell was the projected WR1 for the Bears yet hasn’t had more than 30 yards in a game this season. No reason to roster anyone here outside of Hunter. FWIW, Tobias Merriweather and Kiyon Grayes are expected to be out again this week.
Injury Notes – RB Jaydn Ott ($8,800) If you’re new to CFB DFS, last week’s situation with Ott was the game in a nutshell. Dressed in uniform with evidence on Twitter yet wound up not playing a single snap in Cal’s win over San Diego State. The expectation from the California beat writer is that Ott will play on Saturday. But that price tag is a huge risk.
Florida State:
Other Games on the Saturday Night write-up:
- Northwestern v Washington
- Tennessee v Oklahoma
- Iowa v Minnesota
- Baylor v Colorado
- Michigan State v Boston College
- Purdue v Oregon State
All-American and Heisman Members can view Weekly Player Projections here (click).
To become an All-American or Heisman member of theCFFsite, click here.
Heisman Members can view the full write-up here (click).
To get a one-week membership to view theCFFsite’s Week 4 Player Projections and DFS write-ups, click here.