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Kentucky vs. Mississippi
Point-Spread: Miss -15
O/U Total: 53
Implied Score: Miss 34 – UK 19
Weather: 66 degrees / 27% rain / 13 mph winds
Mississippi:
Top Play(s) – QB Jaxson Dart ($9,800) Dart is not the lock he is in most weeks, given both the potential weather and the matchup. Kentucky is allowing just 7.9 FPPG to opposing quarterbacks so far this year, with an impressive performance two weeks ago limiting Georgia to its lowest output of the season. Weather is up in the air given the circumstances of Hurricane Helene, but reports as of Thursday show just 20% chance rain and winds only around 10 MPH. Should be ok on that front.
Fade – WR Jordan Watkins ($5,800) We’ll have more interest in Watkins down the line in potential shootout situations. This is not one of those instances, and Watkins is priced up despite being listed as “probable” in the official injury report. Since coming back from injury, Watkins has had a touchdown in each of the last two games, playing over 60% of the offensive snaps. Target volume is down, though, as he’s the 3rd or 4th option in the passing game.
Bargain Bin – TE Caden Prieskorn ($4,000) The Ole Miss TE1 plays 59% of the offensive snaps, running a route 46% of the time. Kentucky is allowing 6.4 FPPG to opposing tight ends. Prieskorn’s aDOT has fallen dramatically since the first few weeks against lesser competition – just 6.0 yards down field on four targets vs. Georgia Southern last week.
Pivot Play – RB Henry Parrish ($6,800) Parrish has taken over the Mississippi backfield with no other secondary option much of a factor at all. Kentucky’s run defense has been elite to start the season, ranking 7th in rush D success rate and allowing only 12 FPPG to opposing running backs.
Best of the Rest – WR Tre Harris ($9,100) or Antwane Wells ($5,000) In future matchups, we can potentially consider stacking the Ole Miss receivers with the torrid pace that Jaxson Dart is on in his Heisman campaign. This probably isn’t the week as Kentucky will look to slow the pace, but either Harris or Wells are always going to be an option. Three receivers have scored double-digit fantasy points against the UK secondary this season. Harris currently ranks third among all FBS wide receivers in fantasy points scored this year behind only Tai Felton and Nick Nash.
Injury Notes – n/a
Kentucky:
Top Play(s) – WR Dane Key ($4,600) Not necessary to roster any Kentucky receiver, but Key is coming off a season-best performance against Ohio last week with 7-145-0 on 10 targets. Game script should dictate Kentucky needing to throw the football more than they’re accustomed to. Despite not having a touchdown this season, Key feels like the best chance to score among Kentucky wideouts with a 17.6 YPC average and aDOT of over 17 yards.
Fade – QB Brock Vandagriff ($5,000) Kentucky is dead last in the SEC in passing, facing an Ole Miss defense that is allowing just 7.2 FPPG to opposing quarterbacks. No thanks.
Bargain Bin – WR Barion Brown ($5,000) Second on the team in targets (17), receptions (12) and routes run, with two of the team’s three receiving touchdowns. 11 of the 17 targets have come in the last two games. Brown could have some added value in the run game with six carries and a touchdown through the first month.
Pivot Play – RB Demie Sumo-Karngbaye ($4,800) The price tag is appealing here as Demie Sumo should get the bulk of the carries again with Chip Trayanum out again this week. But this is the No. 1 rush defense in the country in terms of success rate and has yet to allow an opposing starting running back to score over 12 fantasy points this season.
Best of the Rest – WR Ja’Mori Maclin ($4,500) The North Texas transfer, coming off a career year, looks to be a second-stringer at this point, falling behind Fred Farrier II in snaps played the last two weeks. Maclin was not target a single time against Ohio.
Injury Notes – RB Chip Trayanum ($5,000) Trayanum is getting closer to returning, as soon as next week, but was ruled out on Wednesday.
Oklahoma State vs. Kansas State
Point-Spread: KSU -5
O/U Total: 57
Implied Score: KSU 31 – OSU 26
Weather: 73 degrees / 0% rain / 7 mph winds
Oklahoma State;
Top Play(s) – WR Brennan Presley ($7,100) Team leader in targets (43), receptions (27) and touchdowns (4). While outside receivers have had the most success vs. Kansas State, we’ve seen Tulane’s Mario Williams go for 100+ against this secondary, scoring 18 fantasy points. Limit one Oklahoma State receiver per lineup.
Fade – QB Alan Bowman ($7,700) Oklahoma State is sticking with Bowman as QB1 but was replaced briefly coming out of halftime last week against Utah. If the struggles for Bowman continue on the road, does Mike Gundy consider making a change again? Low floor and limited upside here with Bowman as he’s a non-runner facing a defense that hasn’t allowed a QB to score more than 19 fantasy points yet this season.
Bargain Bin – WR Rashod Owens ($4,500) Boundary receivers have given KSU the most fits, with five different wideouts scoring 12 or more fantasy points against the Wildcats. Owens had a season-high 10 targets last week vs. Utah.
Pivot Play – RB Ollie Gordon ($9,200) Makes little sense to roster Gordon this week given the declining volume and high price tag. I cannot believe how disastrous the OSU run game has been given all the returning pieces, ranked 130th in rush success rate. Just recall, though – we’re right at that point in the season where Gordon turned it up in 2023, rushing for 100+ in eight of his last nine games. Do we see the same turnaround in 2024? RBs have found success against Kansas State this season with Makai Hughes (27.5 fpts) and Sione Moa (18.3 fpts).
Best of the Rest – WR De’Zhaun Stribling ($5,800) Second in targets (33), receptions (20) and first on the team in routes run. Stribling played 100% of the offensive snaps last week vs. Utah.
Injury Notes – n/a
Kansas State:
Top Play(s) – RB DJ Giddens ($8,500) Know what teams do after a blowout loss? Get back to their identity. Giddens is averaging over six yards per carry this season and Oklahoma State is dreadful defending the run, ranked last in the conference in yards allowed on the ground. I expect 20+ carries for Giddens on Saturday.
Fade – WR Dante Cephas ($3,400) Cephas had two drops vs. Arizona and its been downhill since. His playing time has gone from 41% in Week 1 to 32% in Week 3 and then a season-low 21% vs. BYU last week. He’s WR4 in run-based offense now.
Bargain Bin – WR Keagan Johnson ($4,000) Tied for second on the team in targets (11) and routes run, playing a season-high 81% of snaps vs. BYU last week. We’d be hesitant to roster any KSU wide receiver as this is the worst passing attack in the Big 12, averaging just 160 yards per game.
Pivot Play – RB Dylan Edwards ($6,000) We don’t think Kansas State will want to throw the football at all, given this is one of the best rushing attacks in the country taking on the worst run D in the Big 12. Edwards needs to be more involved as the team’s second-best weapon on offense. A run-heavy game script could lead to Edwards hitting value.
Best of the Rest –
Other Games in the Saturday Main Slate Write-up:
Maryland v Indiana; Minnesota v Michigan; BYU v Baylor; Nebraska v Purdue; Arkansas v Texas A&M; Oklahoma v Auburn; TCU v Kansas; Colorado v UCF; Louisville v Notre Dame; Wisconsin v USC; Mississippi State v Texas
All-American and Heisman Members can view Weekly Player Projections here (click).
To become an All-American or Heisman member of theCFFsite, click here.
Heisman Members can view the full write-up here (click).
To get a one-week membership to view theCFFsite’s Week 5 Player Projections and DFS write-ups, click here.