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Missouri vs. Texas A&M
Point-Spread: A&M-1.5
O/U Total: 48.5
Implied Score: A&M 25 – Mizzou 23.5
Weather: 83 degrees / 16% rain / 9 mph winds
Missouri:
Top Play(s) – WR Luther Burden ($8,400) A&M is solid all around defensively but has really struggled in the secondary against opposing wide receivers. Two Florida wideouts and Arkansas’ WR4 all hit 20 fantasy points in their matchups with the Aggies. If that can happen, I’m sure Luther Burden will find similar success as he did a year ago vs. A&M with nine receptions for 158 yards.
Fade – QB Brady Cook ($7,500) Price vs. projection is fine here so Cook isn’t a full fade. That said, A&M hasn’t allowed a quarterback to score more than 15 fantasy points in a game all season yet. And I’m going to assume the 12th man is going to be extra hostile this week after Cook stated Missouri practices are louder than when he went to A&M previously. Bulletin board material. If you want a true fade, no reason at all to play RB Marcus Carroll ($4,800).
Bargain Bin – WR Mookie Cooper ($3,800) Same yearly story it feels for Cooper. The slot receiver plays over 70% of the offensive snaps, is still third in targets behind Missouri’s top two receivers, but there isn’t much production that comes with. Unless a starting receiver is announced out, Cooper doesn’t provide a ton of value.
Pivot Play – RB Nate Noel ($6,000) The Aggies are solid against the run as well, though some backs have found success as Ja’Quinden Jackson and Jeremiyah Love both scored 16 fantasy points in their respective matchups. Noel has solidified RB1 duties, and in the recent competitive contests, we’re seeing Noel get the type of volume we expect from a Missouri RB1.
Best of the Rest – WR Theo Wease ($6,000) Too expensive for a player that’s one great fantasy performance came when Luther Burden was unavailable for much of the second half. His numbers in Week’s 3 and 4 are reflective of what to expect weekly with a healthy WR room.
Injury Notes – n/a
Texas A&M:
Top Play(s) – QB Marcel Reed ($6,200) A&M staff will likely say all the right things about Connor Weigman and this QB situation, but they know in their heart of hearts that Reed is the better option of the two moving forward. Even in a “down” performance last week, Reed still accounted for three touchdowns in the win over Arkansas. Looking at what’s transpired earlier this year, similar QBs to Reed have had some success against the Tigers this season with BC’s Thomas Castellanos (21.6 fpts) and Vandy’s Diego Pavia (26 fpts).
Fade – WR Cyrus Allen ($4,200) Allen has seen his playing time steadily decrease since Jabre Barber has returned to the lineup. Once playing over 70% of the offensive snaps, that’s down to around 50% with just eight targets over the last three games combined.
Bargain Bin – TE Tre Watson ($3,500) Longshot play. Missouri has struggled to defend tight ends so far. Vanderbilt’s TE1 scored 12 fantasy points vs. the Tigers, while BC’s top two tight ends combined for 25 fantasy points. Low-volume option in terms of targets so Watson must find the end-zone to hit value.
Pivot Play – RB Le’Veon Moss ($5,500) Reading some of the game previews from the A&M side, the expectation appears to be that for the Aggies to win this game, they’ll lean on Moss to carry the load. The trouble is how good the Missouri run defense has been this season, ranking 16th nationally with no running back scoring more than 10 fantasy points. Numbers are slightly skewed, though, as Missouri hasn’t exactly faced a guantlet schedule-wise. Boston College and their two-back system is the best run game Mizzou has faced to date.
Best of the Rest – WR Noah Thomas ($3,800) Discounted price here for a player that is averaging nearly six targets per game coming off his best performance of the year with 6-109-1 on 10 targets. 18 of Thomas’ 29 targets this season have come in the last two games so some momentum and chemistry building between he and Reed. WR Jahdae Walker ($3,700) was not targeted vs. Arkansas but has still played over 50% of the offensive snaps the last two weeks so he’s on the field. Limit one pass-catcher from A&M in any lineup you create.
Injury Notes – QB Connor Weigman ($6,200) Listen to the quotes from Eli Drinkwitz earlier this week when commenting on Weigman still being listed as QB1 on the depth chart. All semantics. Reed will start. Weigman was not even suited up last week in pregame warmups.
Boston College vs. Virginia
Point-Spread: UVA -1
O/U Total: 53
Implied Score: UVA 27 – BC 26
Weather: 74 degrees / 1% rain / 6 mph winds
Boston College:
Top Play(s) – QB Thomas Castellanos ($8,400) Not sure I’ll be playing anyone on the BC side in this game but Castellanos back in the lineup helps the offense overall. I like the matchup with Virginia if Castellanos is truly at full strength as UVA is allowing 25 FPPG to opposing QBs this season. Those quarterbacks are scoring about 20% above their seasonal average when facing Virginia.
Fade – RB Treshaun Ward ($5,200) I think the salaries are flipped between Ward and RB Kye Robichaux ($4,200). The latter out-carried Ward 18-6 last week vs. Western Kentucky and Ward is not listed on the injury report so assuming that is performance-related. Just one running back has scored more than 10 fantasy points against UVA this season, but the Hoos also are 111th in rush D success rate. Either way, prefer Robichaux to Ward.
Bargain Bin – WR Jaedn Skeete ($3,300) Skeete is the second most reliable pass-catcher for BC, as he ranks second on the team in both targets (19) and receptions (11). He’s playing significantly more than Jerand Bradley by a 3-1 advantage in snaps played.
Pivot Play – WR Lewis Bond ($4,500) Wide receivers have dominated Virginia to start the season with five players scoring at least 15 fantasy points against this secondary. Two of which – Donavon Greene and Tai Felton – combined for nearly 60 fantasy points. Bond has over 30% of the team’s target share with 23 of the 66 receptions.
Best of the Rest – TE Reed Harris ($3,200) Harris is a TE / WR hybrid type of pass-catcher that can really threaten opponents down the field. Just 30% catch rate but is averaging nearly 50 yards per receptions and a 21.4 aDOT.
Injury Notes – n/a
Virginia:
Top Play(s) – WR Malachi Fields ($8,600) Obvious choice here for UVA’s top option with 29% of the target share and over 25% of the team’s receiving production. Like Anthony Colandrea below, these prices might be a bit too steep for this game total. WRs have found some success against BC with four players scoring 13 or more fantasy points in their respective matchups.
Fade – QB Anthony Colandrea ($9,200) Game totals and projections suggest this is far too high a salary for Colandrea this week, and while not a complete fade, the sophomore QB should really only be in game stack lineups in the off-chance it does become a shootout. Only one QB thus far has scored more than 20 fantasy points against BC so far this season.
Bargain Bin – RB Xavier Brown ($3,300) A player we definitely would like to see get more snaps moving forward over RB Kobe Pace ($4,900) after rushing for 170 yards on just nine carries vs. Coastal Carolina two weeks ago. BC has been very good, though, against the run this season, ranked 28th in success rate and not allowed a player to score more than 16 fantasy points all year.
Pivot Play – WR Trell Harris ($5,800) Harris missed the contest vs. Coastal Carolina but is expected to return on Saturday. Despite missing a game, the former Kent State transfer is still tied with Fields for the team lead in touchdown receptions and is second in both targets (18) and catches (13).
Best of the Rest – TE Tyler Neville ($3,700) While the pass defense has been serviceable for BC, they’ve had some struggles stopping tight ends this season. Jack Velling of Michigan State had season-highs vs. the Eagles with 13 fantasy points. And just last week, Western Kentucky’s TE1 posted 11 fantasy points. Neville is the third option in the passing game behind Fields and Harris, tied for the team lead with two TDs.
Injury Notes – n/a
SMU vs. Louisville
Point-Spread: UL -6.5
O/U Total: 56.5
Implied Score: UL 31.5 – SMU 25
Weather: 74 degrees / 0% rain / 6 mph winds
SMU:
Top Play(s) –
Other matchups viewable to Heisman & 1-Week Members:
Pitt v. North Carolina; Wake Forest v NC State; Purdue v Wisconsin; UCLA v Penn St.; Auburn v Georgia; Ole Miss v South Carolina; Virginia Tech v Stanford; Iowa v Ohio St.; West Virginia v Oklahoma St.; Rutgers v Nebraska; Alabama v Vanderbilt
All-American and Heisman Members can view Weekly Player Projections here (click).
To become an All-American or Heisman member of theCFFsite, click here.
Heisman Members can view the full write-up here (click).
To get a one-week membership to view theCFFsite’s Week 6 Player Projections and DFS write-ups, click here.